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I would be curious to know how many SERO users are out there and what % of Sprint's customers they are. A fair guess might be to double or triple the # of employees that Sprint has. That's probably a small percentage of 36 million customers. Let's say it's 1 million, even. It's < 3%. I'm not a business guy, but losing 3% of your customers may be an absorbable loss if the Pre increases your profits by 3%. Common sense would dictate that Sprint is not losing money on SERO customers. If so, why would they have offered the plan in the first place, to have a larger customer base and be able to inflate the stock prices indirectly by reporting an increase in subscribers? Maybe I'm too naive and that's how big businesses roll.
I think that it is clear that any "cool" phone going forward will require a $69 plan monthly. An interesting thing might be to allow SERO on "old" devices, like maybe after the new replacement has come out, like to now allow the Instinct to be on SERO but not the Instinct II.
I feel very confident that the Pre is going to do very little damage to the iPhone if the cost is the same. Who on earth, including me, would choose the Pre over the iphone if the monthly cost was the same? Smaller screen, thicker, doesn't have the cool factor, less apps right now, etc. It does have a keyboard, but I'm not sure if that will trump all those other negatives. I just have a hard, hard, hard, hard, hard time believing that the Pre's UI will beat the iphone's UI to the extent that it draws people away from the iPhone towards the Pre. I believe it will be as good, and maybe even a bit better, but not enough to tilt the scales towards the Pre if monthly price is th same. While the Pre may very well be the iphone's equal as a phone, pda, and entertainment device, that has very, very little to do with financial success. There are tons of great ideas that never achieve commercial success. Mark my words, the monthly Pre plan needs to be priced significantly less than the iphone to make a dent. Has the sidekick made a dent? Has the instinct made a dent? Aren't blackberries losing market share? I would say that the Pre must have a monthly plan of $40-$45 in order to lure on-the-fence customers away from the iphone and towards the Pre. At the very least the Pre should be "buyable" with just a voice plan for $39.99. At least then you can say "starts at $39.99" instead of from $69.99 or whatever it is.
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