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 Originally Posted by dbd
Doesn't the team that's way behind, have to work 2 or 3 times harder just to stay in the game? They canNOT play at the same pace as their opponents and expect a win.
I've beaten on this point a few times in the past, so I might as well again: I think that Palm _is_ working as hard and as fast as they can. And, I think their strategy is sound, at least within the limitations that they're facing. I certainly don't expect them to suddenly execute as well or as quickly as Apple or Google, simply because they're a fraction of the size and even more limited financially.
Now, it might not be enough to succeed. I can see Palm failing as clearly as I can see Palm succeeding. But in that case, it's silly to admonish Palm because they're "not moving fast enough," when in reality they're very, very likely simply moving as quickly as they can.
I was watching a guy using his iPhone the other day, and yes, whatever app he was running was flashy as hell and impressive from an eye candy perspective. It also looked... well... stupid, insipid, even, and was a pure time-waster. Much of what I've seen in Apple's App Store seem to follow this pattern.
The apps I've seen that are real productivity enhancers and that stay in the Apple Store top 10, on the other hand, don't require native access or GPU support or anything that can't be provided via WebOS as it is (with mike and camera APIs, of course). The reality is, real productivity doesn't generally require the best graphics. Evernote, for example, works great on the Pre, for the most part--all we need is mike support for voice notes and better support for zooming/panning. I imagine that this will be provided soon--or at least, I can't think of no reason why it won't. And those don't require a "native" SDK.
My point is: what's holding Palm back from wider success is the fundamental nature of the market. I don't think it's really anything to do with WebOS, the Pre, or the Pixi themselves. Put another way: I think those could be perfectly designed, perfectly manufactured/developed with full Flash support, access to all hardware, even GPU access, and Palm would _still_ be in roughly the same market and financial position. Apple simply owns the market with the iPhone and would likely have to beat themselves, at least in the short and near term. Google has way too much money to throw at Android. And, I think just about everyone else has way more money to spend on advertising and marketing in general than Palm and Sprint combined and so can simply outspend Palm pretty much forever.
Ultimately, the question will be: how large will the smartphone market grow, which will dictate whether or not 7% or so of that market is enough to sustain a profitable business. If it is, then Palm will survive and even thrive. There's nothing that says they have to "beat" the iPhone, or Android, or RIM in order to stay in business. It it's not, then I don't think that Palm can do pretty much anything to guarantee their success.
Therefore, they might as well stick to their original strategy and see how much traction they can get with it. Because I just can't think of anything they're capable of doing today that's going to make a hill of beans difference to their long-term success. I can, however, think of any number of things they could do to kill themselves, and trying to develop, implement, and support a brand-new "native" SDK, right now or in the near future, seems like suicide to me.
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