[cgk]

When did anybody reveal actual sales numbers?

Indeed, where are those numbers from? source?

[dallashigh]

Palm announces first quarter results: $164.5m net loss, 823k phones sold

Smart phone sell-through for Palm's fiscal Q1 2010 (ended Aug 28, 2009) was 810,000, of which the Pre accounted for the "vast majority".

Not quite a million, but considering they sold nearly 800k in less than three months, it's not at all unreasonable to assume that they've sold 200k more in the last two months.

BTW, the BlackBerry Storm hit a million in 2 months. Oh, and the G1 with Android that some people here seem to think is more successful than webOS? It took six months to hit a million.

[jbg7474]

I'm not sure why, but most people seem to forget that Palm's mission, like all corporations, is to make money. Garnering a large chunk of market share is one way to do that, but it's not the only way. The only definition of success for the Pre and webOS is whether they make money for Palm and its investors. The early returns seem to be good, but we won't know the real answer to that for several more months.

[ksom]

Okay, lets ask further: why hasn't the Pre been a success so far? Is it a lack of quality or of apps?

What is success?
* Is it to be more popular than iPhone?
* Is it to hit a certain number in units sold?
* Is it making Palm profitable?

I think Palm will never be able to met the first one, because iPhone is replacing iPod as Apple's bread and butter and Apple cannot lose on iPhone.

I think Palm is close for hitting the second one. But I think most target numbers were set by analysts, so it is hard to say if Palm has met its own goals.

The last is a must eventually, but it is longer term thing. I think it is hard to judge 5 months after Palm's launch. However, we are getting closer to the point that Palm has to answer this question. If a year after Pre's launch Palm still cannot reduce lost or turn positive, Palm will have a big problem. This is the part I worry the most, not having gazillion apps in the app store, or beating iPhone, or if the battery can last for the whole day.

Also from a boarder marketing view, I think we are just at the being of the Smartphone drive. There will be some consolidation in the coming years. I cannot imagine that software developers wasting time porting the same apps to 4 different platforms. That's just silly. The developers have to do it now, because they cannot tell who's going to be left eventually, so they have to reserved a place on each platform. I think Blackberry has the biggest to lose, Android and WebOS has the biggest to gain. IPhone cannot replace Blackberry, unless it has a physical keyboard.

[sivan]

I'm not sure why, but most people seem to forget that Palm's mission, like all corporations, is to make money.

You're confusing between Palm's mission to investors and to consumers. Two opposite crowds.

[windzilla]

By any objective criteria both have disappointed.

dissapointment is subjective.

[jbg7474]

You're confusing between Palm's mission to investors and to consumers. Two opposite crowds.

I disagree, the one is a means to the other. The root is to make money.

[dragbug]

You're confusing between Palm's mission to investors and to consumers. Two opposite crowds.

Not really, hard to have one without the other don't ya think?

[sivan]

I disagree, the one is a means to the other. The root is to make money.

Is this what you had in mind when you decided to buy the Pre over some other phone?

[9thWonder]

We are now almost 5 months after launch. The Pre is bug ridden, the SDK is limited, not only technically, but also in what Palm lets developers use. The app catalog is mostly filled with trivial apps. By any objective criteria both have disappointed.

Imagine an alternative scenario where Palm just shipped a device that worked really well out of the box but did not yet have a developer program or app catalog, although it gave a target time frame of a year from launch for those.

I would never have bought a Pre. There's no facebook app NOW. I like Web OS but it's far from as feature filled as I expected. There are tons of little things and little details missing and like the saying goes, "the devil is in the details." Even by your analysis says "the Pre is bug ridden." Well if that's true releasing just a bug ridden pre with no future catalog is not going to make that package any more appealing. But bottom line. In your alternative scenario I would not have bought a Pre.

I'm especially curious to hear from those who demanded an SDK and app store or those who still believe Palm is executing the right plan.

The plan is fine. Palm's execution is bad. it's angered developers, failed to have decent apps, and failed to respond to several issues like the app limit which festered without official response for months. The smart phone market is what it is. It's dominated by phones that have app stores, and from a profit perspective Palm is full of debt and competing against companies, specifically, apple, microsoft, and google that generate revenue outside the cell phone market. Palm does not and thus can't afford slip ups. Apps are a large draw for customers. To this no app catalog strategy. I'd say, there is no phone that's successful now without it. That's the proof right there that it's an avenue that customers want.

When did anybody reveal actual sales numbers?

They have not. So far statements or Pre sales figures are guesses.

Okay, lets ask further: why hasn't the Pre been a success so far? Is it a lack of quality or of apps?

1. Bad management by Palm: Palm is not a well run company. Add to that they don't have a lot of people there. So they may truly lack the resources to respond to issues in a timely fashion even if management makes correct decisions. Example: rumor was apps weren't getting added to the catalog merely cause they lacked the people to approve them.
2. Bad advertising: Advertising matters, Apple does it supremely well and google makes all it's money off of ads so clearly advertising is important. And Palms ads suck ***. When you have to debate if an ad campaign is truly horrible, there is no debate; It's NOT good.
3. failure to license web OS: Android is doing to the cell market what microsoft did to the PC market. Taking share by being a software OS company not a hardware company. Palm is trying to run it all like Apple. But Apple is out ahead of everyone. Palm would have done better to license WebOS to Samsung, Motorola, HTC and focus on it's OS not on trying to control hardware and software. It then has the expense of manufacturing and R&D for hardware, etc. Android is being released on 7 or 8 phones now throughout the world. Palm is struggling with only two phones in a few countries. And there is also the fact that soon, iphone will not be on just AT&T and when iphone is on every platform Palm has a serious problem.
4. Apps: The apps are bad or "trivial" and in general slow to be added to the catalog. And very few apps made by popular business brands.
5. Games: part of apps but worthy of a seperate space. Palm decided not to focus on games. Games are however the most profitable apps, the most numerous apps, the most downloaded apps in the itunes app store, and they are the most numerous and downloaded (I think) apps in the homebrew catalog. Even in the official Palm App catalog there 85 games. I think that is by far the biggest single category of apps. To set out to ignore this, as a revenue center and a method of attracting and holding consumers strikes me as stupid from a business standpoint.
6. Sprint. It flat out has a bad rep. I had it left them for 10 years for T-mobile. Loved T-mobile. Only the pre got me back. I'm ok with sprint but Sprint isn't the biggest and it's fighting it's bad rep with consumers. Phone companies sign exclusive contracts cause it's gauranteed money but this likely bit Palm in the azz. 6 months exclusive allowed all the Palm Pre positive buzz to die and android swoop in, release several phones on several carriers across the world, and steal Palm's thunder, all while Palm waits to get on bigger carriers. For palm, release on Verizon can't come too soon.
7. WebOS Software issues: There are tons of small issues with palm software and they add up to a lot of big irritants. From the media player that's not nearly as good as an ipod, to the inability to use custom notifications there are too many small niggling issues with webos to mention. None kill web os as a product. Infact i think web os is a great start but it's not polished in terms of there are loose ends that need to be tied up all over the place. And that's a big thing. With all the competition in the space you can't expect to knock off the big dogs by being ALMOST as good in some areas. You need to be better in ALL areas. All of them.
8. Palm's inability to manage negative publicity. When you're selling consumer products all news is NOT good news. News that you're product is not selling, or has defect issues is not a good thing. The itunes battle is not a good thing. They all make Palm look inept and unable to deliver on it's promises and unable to provide consistent solutions to it's customers. And Palm has largely failed to provide solid numbers of sales, returns, when it will provide desktop sync solutions, when it's catalog would officially launch to refute a lot of the bad press. Even now Palm is faced with large spectulation that it will not be able to maintain it's growth. Now in reality that remains to be seen. They may beat expectations this quarter but in terms of the value of the company the stock is getting creamed on this viewpoint. And that negative viewpoint doesn't exactly entice more people to adopt the webOS platform in the fact of speculation that it's failing. It's fine if your Apple, to let negativity just sit there cause you've got plenty of money, a past history of beating fiscal expectations, and and army of loyal customers already. If you're a company with basically one product, a history of failing to meet earnings expectations, and few customers that's trying to grow you can't let negative publicity go unchecked.

You're confusing between Palm's mission to investors and to consumers. Two opposite crowds.

No. Satisfy consumers and you'll grow consumers, increase profits and satisfy investors. They are very much linked.

[sivan]

No. Satisfy consumers and you'll grow consumers, increase profits and satisfy investors. They are very much linked.

Yes. Unfortunately consumers don't give a damn about Palm's mission to its investors.

[acipollo]

I love my Pre, but any cell phone in this day and age that you need to hack just to get basic functionality out of it that a free 2 yr old cell phone has is shame.
Any SMARTPHONE that has an App Catalog that is comprised of mostly homebrew apps(which I love) and very few "big name" or "company" backed Apps is a problem for a phone shopper.
Again, I love my Pre, but I have a feeling when it will 1 year old, it will just be where it should have been at launch and if webOS is still alive and kicking, the PRE will be considered an antique.
As it is now, there are a slew of phones coming out that have the missing functionality and much more out of the box.
Multi-tasking is a great feature, but really, how many people will keep a phone and give up so much more just for that? Most of the people I know that have a Pre would rather have the features it is missing and a huge app store than multi-tasking.

[dragbug]

Yes. Unfortunately consumers don't give a damn about Palm's mission to its investors.

What does this have to do with your original post...?

[hparsons]

Is this what you had in mind when you decided to buy the Pre over some other phone?

Now you are confusing his mission with Palm's mission. When he decided to buy the Pre, you can bet that "making money" was what Palm had in mind.
The secret to success, for any business, is to figure out a way to make their goals and the goals of customers merge. At least enough customers to stay in business.

[dragbug]

Again, I love my Pre, but I have a feeling when it will 1 year old, it will just be where it should have been at launch and if webOS is still alive and kicking, the PRE will be considered an antique.

How long did it take the iPhone to get cut/paste, picture mail, a working GPS...and a wealth of other "basic functionality"? Granted, it can't take Palm almost 3 years to do the same and be successful but.....

[hparsons]

What does this have to do with your original post...?

Now you're confusing his original post with his overall "misson". Go back and read other threads from him, you'll get the idea...

[dragbug]

Now you're confusing his original post with his overall "misson". Go back and read other threads from him, you'll get the idea...

Your right, i am confused....I'll leave it at that.

[sivan]

What does this have to do with your original post...?

There was some attempt previously to say that Palm can only be measured by the return on investment which is beside the point of the thread. Ultimately we are trying to see if Palm's strategy succeeded with consumers.

I'm saying it didn't. The app catalog can hardly be called a draw to the device, the SDK has ways to go. I say that Palm has squandered resources on a futile pursuit while making itself look bad.

[Faculak99]

It is funny that when he came to Palm from Apple, the idea was to model Apple's marketing and consumer base. Funny, that he forgot such a thing as a tested product before going to sales.

You want a funny commercial, picture the Apple commercials, except with the Pre as the stand in for PC. Funny how the script doesn't change much

I really wanted the Pre to be the product it could be, but I am afraid that experience will kill it. You don't have to be patient when you have options. Pre isn't a PC in that phone buyers have multtttttiiiple options. I see in my crystal ball the dissolution of Palm by a larger company, and it will retain its identity as Palm. Good news is that it might finally receive the R & D necessary to make it work.

Just venting....

[DS_Palm_Lvr]

I'm happy with the App Catalog, but I'm in Canada and we seem to get the bad ones filtered out up here. Also most of the ones you have to pay for. But seriously, I've found some nice news apps, a nice podcaster, a couple of meh games, some really good ways to find restaurants, etc. etc. I understand people love quantity, but the stuff I've seen and downloaded has been high quality for the most part.