[VaccPalm]

I think they may be living up to the fool part of there name here by saying the PRE is dead on arrival, people need for this phone to be out to make a choice but anyways heres the article today from them.

Palm's Pre: Dead on Arrival?

Palm's (Nasdaq: PALM) Pre smartphone, feature-rich though it may be, appears doomed.

A recent survey of 4,292 adult smartphone buyers by ChangeWave Research found that only 4% of respondents planned to buy the Pre in the next six months. By contrast, 37% planned to buy Research In Motion's (Nasdaq: RIMM) BlackBerry, and 30% planned to buy Apple's (Nasdaq: AAPL) iPhone.

[Outrigger#WN]

Problem is many people like to stick to the status quo. I've been touting a blackberry for a number of years, right after the treo 750. The problem is Palm and Sprint's reputation which is the lowest on the food chain as far as handset manufacturer and carrier respectively. Times have changed so much since Palm was the top dog in the smartphone game and Sprint... well, Sprint never was, but it certainly has gone downhill from that time.

I'm much more impressed by WebOS than by the physical phone itself which I'm sure I'll grow to love. But what I'm most excited about like back in the old treo days is the OS which I hope will bring Palm out of the ashes. I don't think Palm will ever reclaim the title of king of smartphone only because back then, Apple, Google was not around and HTC wasn't as big as it is now. No matter how good you once were, it is extremely difficult to make a comeback since all the players have changed, but there is still hope.

[scuba_steve]

Another survey that does not have much value IMHO.

This is a new phone with a new OS. Most folks are not even aware of it...especially those in the "fat middle" target market. Give it six months on the street. By then, many folks will have seen one in the hands of a friend, family member, or coworker. Only then will we see how well WebOS and the Pre stand up against the established players.

[PalmHead]

I remember when the Motley Fool was still touting tech stocks when the heat left that market leaving a lot of people a lot poorer. Perhaps their analytical skills have improved.

As I see it, this survey probably was done before ANY advertising (and certainly before any significant advertising) for the Pre. I think most people have never even heard of the Pre and if they've been shopping in person no one has tried to sell them the Pre because it isn't for sale yet.

Palm, I believe, has stated that they are looking for 2% of the market. So I think it's a little early to declare it DOA.

[GreenHex]

And still, Palm won't sell the damn Pre to me.

The RIM crowd is unique... they seem to be more fanatical about their phones than even the fanboys.

I have a question though - Are such articles even legal? It's passing judgement on something that's not even started yet!!! And they pretend to know the mobile market better than the manufacturers (who probably are better informed). The whole thing appears to be an attempt to push down the Palm share prices, with the hope of buying some, just before it shoots up.

[VaccPalm]

I think the article is probally correct on its numbers but thats becasue the phone isnt out yet. The final test is when its released. I mentioned this in another thread. I have a bunch of relatives, friends ,coworkers who use smart phones. 4 Iphones, 2 RIM , 4 Centros and all the rest are Razrs etc. And yes the Blackberry folks were the most fanatical. they would never get anything else. The iphone users looked at the PRE but had no intrest and only 1 centro user said he might switch. But the biggest thing I heard ws "The Economy" and no interest at this time to spend $200 + on a phone when there jobs are on the line and the mortgage needs to be paid. The economy is still Palms/Sprints biggest obstacle. My opinion is I dont think there a lot of "Incredible" interest outside of the Palm folks for this phone BUT it will pick up from word of mouth when its released. BUT if Palm prices this phone out of the affordable range ( more than $200) they will truley have problems . The SmartPhone market is crowded and theres no rooms for mistakes. You have to price this phone competivley or else.

[west3man]

It does seems problematic to me, though, that the public doesn't know a damned thing about the Pre, yet.

How are so many people supposed to find out about it and decide to get it, when it's basically starting from SCRATCH within a month or two?


While I'm at it, I think Sprint should animate the Pre in those commercials (y'know, the ones where they don't even tell you its name) so people don't think it's a static banana phone. I don't think I saw a single thing that suggested it was a slim slider.

[VaccPalm]

I agree , these new commercials need to show the PRE more . Everytime I see them I think wheres the "DARN" pre. Then its at the end. Get people excited. Most people dont even know that its a PRE at the end of the commerials unless there from one of these forums.

[west3man]

I think the article is probally correct on its numbers but thats becasue the phone isnt out yet. The final test is when its released. I mentioned this in another thread. I have a bunch of relatives, friends ,coworkers who use smart phones. 4 Iphones, 2 RIM , 4 Centros and all the rest are Razrs etc. And yes the Blackberry folks were the most fanatical. they would never get anything else. The iphone users looked at the PRE but had no intrest and only 1 centro user said he might switch. But the biggest thing I heard ws "The Economy" and no interest at this time to spend $200 + on a phone when there jobs are on the line and the mortgage needs to be paid. The economy is still Palms/Sprints biggest obstacle. My opinion is I dont think there a lot of "Incredible" interest outside of the Palm folks for this phone BUT it will pick up from word of mouth when its released. BUT if Palm prices this phone out of the affordable range ( more than $200) they will truley have problems . The SmartPhone market is crowded and theres no rooms for mistakes. You have to price this phone competivley or else.

It really is an uphill battle.

As for iPhone users, I guess I can't blame'em. After all, how many times have they seen (near) button-less phones show up, mimicking the iPhone's interface or design or functionality... and failing? Why SHOULD they expect the Pre to be any different? Palm and Sprint haven't WORKED on these people, yet. Without a whirlwind media blitz, I don't see how they can, really.

I feel like Palm needs a Super Bowl ad-level of hype that reaches that "fat middle." That Jimmy Fallon segment fell wayyy short of that level. That was a very poor introduction to a phone that should knock tech-heads on their tech-tails.

The demonstration and introduction need to be as deliberate and polished as natural as the Pre, itself.


If Palm hasn't approached that, yet, (and yeah, they did try with Howard Stern... *sigh* Lotus Notes, indeed) at this late date, there's not a whole lot of reason to believe that uphill battle will gain any momentum.

[VaccPalm]

There not going to get the Iphone users or the Blackberry users. they want the middle. But that would leave folks debating the HTC products , The Android , thinking about the Iphone. Also another thing I noticed in talking to folks is the "so what" on the synergy stuff. I also am like that. I want to try this phone becasue of the nice screen, better camera, better internet browing. I could care less that it is facebook friendly etc. Alot of people are like that. The question to consumers is "What is so special" about the PRE and I cant exactly answer that myself. New OS might never used before so I cant say. Its also impossible to know what word of mouth is gonna be. I remmeber the Treo 800W and the love for it , after it was released it was panned and returned big time ( I also returned it) , Also the HTC Pro. I couldnt wait to get my hands on it. Also panned in alot of threads here and retuend ( Also by me) . I hoping if I decide to get a PRE I love it . But I still havent decided that I am getting rid of my Centro and the Economy is my biggest decision.

[Kupe]

I still chuckle when I see this Ed Colligan quote:

'Palm is preparing for that day by positioning the Pre between the iPhone and the BlackBerry in what CEO Ed Colligan calls the "fat middle of the market."'

I guess Ed hasn't figured you that there's no meaningful market gap between those two phones since they are already greatly overlapped in features, capabilities, target market, and price point. Personally I think there's room for the Pre in modest numbers, but to call a non-existent gap in a marketplace "the fat middle" looks like more of the same old out-of-touch Palm.

[Outrigger#WN]

The RIM crowd is unique... they seem to be more fanatical about their phones than even the fanboys.

You mean fanatical like Palm fanboyss? Nokia fansboys? Winmo fansboys?....etc. There is a fanboy group for every manufacturer/carrier/brand, the simple fact that treocentral exist proves it. There's nothing wrong with being loyal/fanatical about what works for one, thats why we have choices.

[gbp]

It really is an uphill battle.

Without a whirlwind media blitz, I don't see how they can, really.

I feel like Palm needs a Super Bowl ad-level of hype that reaches that "fat middle." That Jimmy Fallon segment fell wayyy short of that level. That was a very poor introduction to a phone that should knock tech-heads on their tech-tails.

+1

We are about a month away from the release date. Still no commercials.
The now network doesn't really say anything about the phone.
Most of the fat middle users are not heard of Pre.
Fool's article might tweak some numbers , but its the truth.
Except for folks like us , not many know about Pre.

I haven't met a person at my work , and in social life that knows Pre or the news that PALM is coming with a smart phone.

[west3man]

There not going to get the Iphone users or the Blackberry users.

There are iPhone users on this very forum who are excited about the Pre. How many more MIGHT be if they'd ever HEARD of the doggone thing??

To be fair, I acknowledge that Palm/Sprint HAVE ramped up their ads, events, and promotions involving the Pre. Maybe there's a big bump just around the corner that will reach that so-called "fat middle."


As far as Synergy is concerned, it matters because there are more and more people whose contacts are fragmented between different social and business networks. The Pre brings those together withOUT requiring a Hotsync.

The main reason I mention no Hotsync as a big plus (despite how much I don't want to give up Palm Desktop) is because it's too problematic. Sometimes, I have to work too doggone hard to make it have to work too hard for a Bluetooth Hotsyc to work... or I have to remember to bring a Hotsync cable. Both can be a pain.

With Synergy, it should be more effortless. It shouldn't require having to remember to Hotsync regularly. It shouldn't require looking multiple times in multiple sources to find a particular snippet of contact information.

The user interface is also special. In my opinion, it is intuitive and elegantly simple. Get a few basic elements and you *get* WebOS's u.i. Want that 3pm appointment moved to 5pm? Drag it down to five o'clock. It's what one might naturally be inclined to do, after dragging and dropping so much in Windows (and I think Mac o.s.'s).

The list goes on.

So, on the one hand, I'm surprised you don't know what to tell people is so special about the Pre. On the other hand, I sometimes find myself enthusiastic but mute simply because what the Pre does so much that makes so much sense *particularly within the context of what people have previously gotten wrong in the smartphone and online arenas* that it can be tough to quickly recall them all and relate them in a way that acknowledges their simplicity without over-simplifying them.

Sometimes the easiest things take longer to say than to do.

The Pre/WebOS is one of those things that makes so much "Well, duh?!" sense that one is instantly amazed that it didn't already exist. THAT is a great metric for a great idea.

[cardfan]

I still chuckle when I see this Ed Colligan quote:

'Palm is preparing for that day by positioning the Pre between the iPhone and the BlackBerry in what CEO Ed Colligan calls the "fat middle of the market."'

I guess Ed hasn't figured you that there's no meaningful market gap between those two phones since they are already greatly overlapped in features, capabilities, target market, and price point. Personally I think there's room for the Pre in modest numbers, but to call a non-existent gap in a marketplace "the fat middle" looks like more of the same old out-of-touch Palm.

Yeah, we've discussed this previously. For such a "fat middle", there seems to be disagreement on who that is exactly. It's even gotten to the point where palm has said they really have no idea who will buy it.

Some have said its between a Bold and an iphone. Others have said that middle is the dumbphone users who continue to step foot into this market.

For enterprise/business users, this phone is short a desktop sync and card slot. For heavy media users, this phone is short some storage space, palm branded media syncing/mgmt, and no straight forward method of buying media like itunes. (talking video here, not music). Yep, you can get media through 3rd parties, but its not as simple to do as itunes. People are lazy.

That said, webOS has nice (from what we've seen) multitasking, a capacitive multitouch screen, real kb, and what appears to be a browser on par or better than the iphone. Apps should quickly come over time. These are the real strengths. The masses aren't looking for an organizer as much as they want the internet in their pocket.

Believe it or not, the most important thing to highlight for palm may be the browser, along with multitasking. In doing so, they can show off multitouch or a few wow apps. The coolest part of synergy to me is the messaging app which combines it all and should appeal to the texters.

And finally price. At a risk to quality, Palm/Sprint needs to show how their plans are so much better at a MONTHLY level. "Saving 420 per year vs AT&T" doesn't do it. If economy is such a powerful influence today, then this needs to be pushed in the right way. I'd do the current SERO plans as the only plans...59, 79, and 99... and market away at 59 a month. They can try to upsell the 99 at point of sale.

[west3man]

+1

We are about a month away from the release date. Still no commercials.
The now network doesn't really say anything about the phone.
Most of the fat middle users are not heard of Pre.
Fool's article might tweak some numbers , but its the truth.
Except for folks like us , not many know about Pre.

I haven't met a person at my work , and in social life that knows Pre or the news that PALM is coming with a smart phone.

I wonder how much of it is related to limited ad budgets. Maybe they're being very selective about how and when they introduce the device because they've got to BAM! inspire high interest and then ... maintainnnnnn it through the release of the device.

The iPhone was, visually, so a HUGE advance over the rest of the market that buzz lasted several months and that train's momentum wasn't going ANYWHERE. Also, it was momentum born of something that hardly needed to be explained. In 5 seconds, Apple could show a clip of the iPhone and people would be blown away.

Palm's taken an evolutionary step of their own - quite likely revolutionary - but it's one that, to some degree, must be explainnnnned. The (good) devil is in Palm's details.

I'm guessing they're banking on all those Centros they gave away - all the people they brought into the Palm fold over the past 18 months or so - having their vision tuned to Palm's frequency and ready to trust Palm to lead them into the next era of "mobile accomplishment."

[mobileman]

Well, I am an iPhone user that really wants to try out the Pre. But no matter what I don't think I am willing to give up my iPhone (my company pays for my phones and I carry around a bunch). I depend now on many of the 3rd party iPhone apps and I doubt the Pre will have similar versions available (atleast for awhile).

The Pre has a few things going against it. For the most part both iPhone and Blackberry users are very happy with their phones. Also, we are in a major recession. I also think Sprint hurts more than it helps.

[Scott_L]

Sheesh! Let the phone come out already. This kind of trash creates the negative welcome it preaches. What percentage of cell/smartphone users that don't frequent forums such as this have any idea what the heck a Pre is? Well, I guess now at least their being told it's going to fail, so don't even think about it. This kind of stuff really gets to me.

I've never hoped for success of a device as I am for the Pre. I've always wanted better from Palm for myself and renewed success for them, but this time I want it most just to shove in everyone's face that is beating the horse while it's still in the womb. Of course, I want the value of my shares to be skyrocket as well.

[B-model#CB]

i'd like to see the same survey done AFTER the pre advertisments have been running for awhile (say 2 months)

[KrazyRogue]

Well, I am an iPhone user that really wants to try out the Pre. But no matter what I don't think I am willing to give up my iPhone (my company pays for my phones and I carry around a bunch). I depend now on many of the 3rd party iPhone apps and I doubt the Pre will have similar versions available (atleast for awhile).

The Pre has a few things going against it. For the most part both iPhone and Blackberry users are very happy with their phones. Also, we are in a major recession. I also think Sprint hurts more than it helps.

I'm a blackberry user (first time) and I'm OK with it, but trying to leave for good. I don't hate the phone, I like it, but I loved my Treo's. It was just those little things that the phone had (hardware and software) that made me appreciate it and love it.
And I see the thought that went into designing the phone/OS that is making switch companies (vzw) just to get it.

One of those little things on the Pre (taken from Dieters video) is the quick way to see the date, battery life, and connect to a bluetooth device, wifi network, or turn on airplane mode with just one tap on the top right corner: