[berdinkerdickle]

I wouldn't worry. It only needs to be a big success on Sprint in the short term, and that's virtually a lock.

I see some of the replies to your comment as if you said 'it's a lock'

I didn't read that from your post.
I read; If the Pre is a big success on Sprint in the short term, then that is virtually a lock.

[morningstar1844#IM]

I see some of the replies to your comment as if you said 'it's a lock'

I didn't read that from your post.
I read; If the Pre is a big success on Sprint in the short term, then that is virtually a lock.

If Apples launches new hardware on the 30th (with choices) Palm is going to have trouble going head to head with Apple. Maybe Palm will surprise us with several 3rd party applications on on the "Pre" the day it is launched. Epocrates states (or one of their employee's) states that they have a good relationship with Palm. I would like to see support on for Ouicken, Bible software and Medical programs on DAY ONE. Or how about Palm releasing thru a 3rd party (an emulator) for the Pre. Probably will not happen but we can wish. I don't understand why they could not have speeded up the design/web os development on a faster basis? This is a old hash(sorry, I am still angry at Jeff and Ed) but We should have seen the Pre two years ago had it not been the debacle that we had on the Foleo!! Remember, it was to be another "Segaway" A Product that would change our lives! Well two years later they are going to release the "Pre".

[cardfan]

If palm released the same minute and second as apple, they'd still both do well and be successful. I really don't get this palm vs apple thing and the zero sum game people try to make it into.

[morningstar1844#IM]

If palm released the same minute and second as apple, they'd still both do well and be successful. I really don't get this palm vs apple thing and the zero sum game people try to make it into.

It's all about Market Share I guess (who get's the larger piece of Apple pie)

I am just saying the palm's share would be bigger if no new hardware is released by apple.

[Aero]

If palm released the same minute and second as apple, they'd still both do well and be successful. I really don't get this palm vs apple thing and the zero sum game people try to make it into.

It is not a zero sum game. But neithe ris it a non competative game either. I mentioned zero sum game when it came to Srpint and sero, which was adopted during a zero sum game over saturated market on subscriptions per se.

so you are correct, Palm and Sprint are not in a zero sum when it comes to pre launch. the smartphone business and data plans are growing. a lot of the market can be upsold to higher data plans, abandoning of landlines etc.

Now as far as this Palm v apple thing that you "don't get," I would point out the obvious, it is the fanatics of Pre that keep doing it tha tis who is making the comparison, it is barely a issue at all when it comes to serious press articles on Apple, tech articles on apple, and the world of apple owners or the world of potential buyers, arguably 99% of whom have never heard of the pre and when they do will probably just think it is the latest iphone!

The issue of Apple is though an impoprtant point when it comes to the thread topic, because apple is a robust growing company with huge advantages in size, econmies of scale, brand affinity and respect and CASH while Palm quite pointedly lacks those key elements right now.

The game is closer to zero sum with smartphones at this point and probably for the remainder of 2009 losing losing their growth momentum, and with individual and coporate cash among buyers more limited than ever, and Palm's access to cash in credit markets profoundly limited.

It begs the question of whether Palm can properly support the product which is bound to be demanding of large amounts of cash and employee time.

People are not saying it is going to crash and burn. But rather the obstacles are much higher with Palm than with any other company, and much higher than at other times

[Pearl_Diva]

Call me retarded if you want, but I think a release of iPhone 3.0 (possibly even if new hardware is involved) timed near the release of the Pre actually helps Pre sales. Here's my logic:
1. Current iPhone owners are unlikely to switch before the end of their contract with AT&T, and judging by how satisfied most people are with their iPhones, they're unlikely to switch even after their contract. Even if a better option is available at Sprint (which most of us agree there will be).
2. iPhones induce iPhone envy in people who aren't on AT&T and don't want to switch.
3. iPhone 3.0 makes the iPhone even more attractive, increasing the effects of iPhone envy.
4. People on Sprint (of which there are 50M or so) will have strong iPhone envy around the release of iPhone 3.0.
5. A great antidote for iPhone envy if you are on Sprint is the Pre!
6. Happy Sprint customers line up in droves to buy the Pre!

A rising tide lifts all boats. Most sales people would say that you have to make the customer feel pain in their current situation and then show them how your product eases their pain. iPhone 3.0 makes people on Sprint feel pain without doing anything. So the Pre just needs to be the antidote.

I'd think price alone would get many people to switch. But there's another rumor going around that AT&T may be adjusting data plans to retain iPhone customers. At the next release, not the current ones. But if that's true, another blow to moving to Sprint since people will likely just stay with AT&T.

This rumor is not confirmed yet though, but supposedly there's an internal statement by AT&T that said they are thinking of doing this. I don't have the link but may be able to find it.

[Pearl_Diva]

It's all about Market Share I guess (who get's the larger piece of Apple pie)

I am just saying the palm's share would be bigger if no new hardware is released by apple.

I agree, there will be less sales for Palm if they release too close to Apple. There's likely to be less sales anyway, given the current iPhone climate, but even more so if they release around the same time.

[Pearl_Diva]

YIKES!! $95 million????

Palm posts net loss of $95 million for Q3, reaffirms that Pre is on schedule

[GregV]

Just jumping in to correct a few minor points:

At the time of the Pre's release, the Pre will be [...] available only in the USA and only on Sprint.

Not true. The new Palm Pre will go on sale in European countries during the first half of this year, the same time frame as for the U.S., Palm CEO Ed Colligan said in a brief interview.

The game is closer to zero sum with smartphones at this point and probably for the remainder of 2009 losing losing their growth momentum...

While no one can predict the future, that's not expected to happen even with the current economic environment. Smartphone Growth To Defy Economic Downturn

Maybe Palm will surprise us with several 3rd party applications on on the "Pre" the day it is launched. Epocrates states (or one of their employee's) states that they have a good relationship with Palm. I would like to see support on for Ouicken, Bible software and Medical programs on DAY ONE. Or how about Palm releasing thru a 3rd party (an emulator) for the Pre.

It sounds like they will likely have third party apps available on day one: Palm is "working hard with developers to get applications ready at launch" Since they're only giving their SDK to select companies right now, it will probably be limited to those visible in the last picture here.

[Reeves]

I see some of the replies to your comment as if you said 'it's a lock'

I didn't read that from your post.
I read; If the Pre is a big success on Sprint in the short term, then that is virtually a lock.

I thought I explained exactly what I meant. I don't respond to anything Aero says regardless of if somebody quoted Aero or not.

But yet again for the cheap seats, The Pre's success in the short term on Sprint is virtually assured. The odds are greatly in favor of any exclusive flagship feature phone on any carrier succeeding in the short term. In the short-term, even the Blackberry Storm was a success. Same went for the G1. When your carrier has one cool and exclusive touchscreen handset at the top of their food chain, people buy it in the short term. Some do it because they want an iPhone equivalent. Some do it because they're in a Sprint store, and it's a cool impulse buy. Some do it because - like us - they're tech geeks and they follow the development of the handset from rumor to production. There are a lot of reasons. But it will happen. It even happened for the Instinct.

Despite its perception as being a failure due to widespread dissatisfaction, Sprint is boring full speed ahead with "updated" Instincts from Samsung this year - and you better believe it's not because the handset doesn't sell. It does. The Pre will as well.

Maybe widespread dissatisfaction will set in after the fact. Maybe it won't be as popular if it launches late on GSM carriers. Maybe in the long term, Palm will simply become insolvent, and they will get bought out. All are real possibilities.

But in the short-term, The Palm Pre will be a success on Sprint. There's way too much pent up demand, excitement, and factors in its favor for it not to be. Anybody is welcome to believe different, but let's spell out specific sales and/or revenue metrics and establish a timeframe (e.g. 6-12 months from now). And we can see who knows what then (aero is excepted here, obviously).

[Scott R]

The new Palm Pre will go on sale in European countries during the first half of this year, the same time frame as for the U.S., Palm CEO Ed Colligan said in a brief interview.

Thanks for the correction there. This is one area where Palm could have a big advantage over the iPhone, at least for the short term. If their Sprint exclusivity period is relatively short and they can get it available to any user on any carrier, that will be a big advantage over Apple.

It sounds like they will likely have third party apps available on day one: Palm is "working hard with developers to get applications ready at launch" Since they're only giving their SDK to select companies right now, it will probably be limited to those visible in the last picture here.

I would be pretty surprised if they didn't have 3rd party apps available at launch, so I agree that I'm sure they're giving some developers early access. That said, I didn't see any mention there beyond the Javascript-based development.

Another note regarding Apple's advantage over Palm in getting/retaining customers...it's important to note that Apple's mobile OS platform runs not only on the iPhone, but also on the iPod Touch. The iPod Touch has Wi-Fi and the App Store, making it easy for these often non-technical users to buy apps. So, this total number of users is part of the userbase as considered by developers.

The Treo / Palm OS Garnet platform has been around for a long, long time with a huge userbase, yet how long have we complained about the lack of better web browser options, support from certain big-name companies, etc.? It's not a "lock" that Palm with their new, still unproven platform will be getting big-name 3rd party developers flocking to it in the short term.

As a developer, the Pre is attractive in that if I were to move quickly and get a good app out at launch, I could have a better chance of being found/bought by Pre users. With the iPhone/iPod Touch, my app could be easily lost among the large number of available apps (and my app idea may have already been done). OTOH, with Apple's platform, as a developer I see that there over 30 million combined (iPhones and iPod Touches) have been sold (according to Apple at their 3.0 announcement). So if I can get even a small fraction of them to impulse-buy my 99 cent app, we may be talking about some real money here.

On that note, this may be a good time to point out that I think Palm would be wise to release a non-phone version of the Pre.

[dbpaddler]

I understand that comparisons are inevitable. Every loves to pit David against Goliath. Everyone loves controversy. But it's just getting old, and I really just don't care. I can't be the only one in the same boat that wouldn't even consider an iphone. I don't care for itunes and a lot of the proprietary dealings. I don't want to touch the screen for every single thing I do. And I'm locked in to Sprint, and if I wasn't, I wouldn't pay ATT's higher fees when I'm very happy with my Sprint coverage and service. I don't think the iphone sucks, and it's done wonders for the industry outside of the fact that everyone thinks they have to copy it in some way, shape or form to be successful. At this point in the game, I'd rather focus on what I can and can't do with the Pre. I'd rather see more threads about PIM comparisons. I'd rather see Palm throw us a bone about the PIM and OTA/desktop syncing so we can be a bit more prepared when it does get released. Maybe throw a watered down emulator online so we can go through some of the functionality and salivate a bit instead of focusing on a lot of the hyped negative and iphone comparisons.

If palm released the same minute and second as apple, they'd still both do well and be successful. I really don't get this palm vs apple thing and the zero sum game people try to make it into.

[dbpaddler]

But in reality it doesn't matter, and outside of bragging rights who really cares? As long as it's profitable for Palm and Sprint, and it gives Sprint the numbers it needs to make an upswing and improve its image (as well as Palm's), it's a win regardless of what Apple does.

It's all about Market Share I guess (who get's the larger piece of Apple pie)

I am just saying the palm's share would be bigger if no new hardware is released by apple.

[theog]

YIKES!! $95 million????

Palm posts net loss of $95 million for Q3, reaffirms that Pre is on schedule

I'm sure they knew that was going to happen (read: a loss of some sort).

Hopefully they can hang on and see the Pre through... as I've said many times before, the Pre is the most important device Palm will have ever launched... outside of the Pilot.

If sales of the Pre do not catch fire, Palm has NOTHING to fall back on. Guess they could keep launching WM devices, but that does not seem to be working very well...

They are a dog and pony show with only the pony. If the pony stops doing tricks, it is all over....

[cardfan]

First trick is to get Sprint customers on it. Sprint has lowered upgrading periods to 12 months for "premier" customers. They did this with the Pre in mind i think. Sprint wants people on everything plans.

If palm can get this out the door with no hiccups, then they'll be ok.

[berdinkerdickle]

I wouldn't worry. It only needs to be a big success on Sprint in the short term, and that's virtually a lock.

Its a lock the Pre will be a success?

That's almost as crazy as people assuming its a lock Palm will support the Pre better than they have past products.

The Pre might have impressed people technically at CES, but no one is foolish enough (except you) to call it's success a lock. You would think you could produce at least 1 quote.
.

I see some of the replies to your comment as if you said 'it's a lock'

I didn't read that from your post.
I read; If the Pre is a big success on Sprint in the short term, then that is virtually a lock.

Mikah,
I guess I should of been more direct.
My post had nothing to do with aero.

My post was to try and clarify what I saw as a possible misqoute by mobileman.

Maybe you meant to imply a positive 'lock'.
Mobileman seems to reply as if you did say a 'lock'

but no one is foolish enough (except you) to call it's success a lock.

I didn't read your post that way.
Oh well.

[Aero]

While no one can predict the future, that's not expected to happen even with the current economic environment. Smartphone Growth To Defy Economic Downturn]

Just to correct a point that is exactly what I said, tha the growth expected will slow its pace. I indicated there will still be growth.

The key is that the growth predicted a few quarters ago for teh period in question was much much higher than it will be.

So expectations for over all smartphone sales will be less than thought, given the lower than expected growth

[Aero]

I read; If the Pre is a big success on Sprint in the short term, then that is virtually a lock.

the problem is that is a tautology as expressed. It then means nothing under that conditional statement.

Look at the last iphone killer- Instinct, big success in the short term

Mikah,
I guess I should of been more direct.
My post had nothing to do with aero.

Berd, don't worry, he has been reading my posts like they are some kind of bible he has to disprove. He thinks all points made by others are my points. it is getting strange! If feel like Mikah thinks he is my editor!

Mikah, that is flattering -- I suppose

[theog]

Look at the last iphone killer- Instinct, big success in the short term

No disrespect or argument starter, but "big success?"

I thought that phone was a failure all the way around... I guess I should take a look at the phone though... but I've not seen anyone with it or even hardly talk about it... hmm... guess I should find some Instink sites and see what they are saying about the phone...

[darnell]

The hottest seller Sprint's got, the Samsung Instinct.

Sprint sees record sales of Samsung Instinct

The hottest seller Best Buy has seen, the Sprint Samsung Instinct.

Sprint’s Samsung Instinct breaks Best Buy sales record!

More Evidence Sprint's iPhone-Clone Samsung Instinct Isn't A Dud