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04/30/2009, 03:15 PM
#1395
 Originally Posted by STEVESKI07
Yes, I agree with your point. My point was that the general public doesn't know about the things we know about. So if the Pre gets released 3-4 weeks before the new iPhone details are released and people see them around they will say, "Wow, that's awesome, I'm going to go get that." After the iPhone details are released, it is going to be posted all over the web, on the news, etc. Out of every group of 10 friends, even if all of them aren't forum visitors like us, at least 1 of them is going to catch an article somewhere and tell the others about it. Your right, they don't know about the conference that is coming up, which proves my point even more that this Pre needs to get out ASAP, before they even know a new iPhone will be coming out at all. Right now it will just appear as the Pre is the latest and greatest piece of technology and they will just be comparing it to the iphone 3G, which is what Palm/Sprint wants and needs to make this launch successful.
I definitely understand this point, but the question is going to be about the quality of the iPhone 3.0 as well. Yes the iPhone is a juggernaut, without question. However, there is pressure on Apple here too because of the Pre. (I can already hear the laughing, but hear me out on this). The iPhone is now a third generation product, people are familiar with it and it has a large user base. How do they draw more people and how do they get people to re-up who will be coming off their initial iPhone 1.0 cellphone contracts (particularly those fed up with AT&T)? Barring some stellar new technology (and no cut & paste is not groundbreaking Apple (come to think of it neither is launching the same device but now with a different colored case, but that is a bit besides the point)) it is unlikely that iPhone 3.0 will seem all that revolutionary. If anything (again barring some groundbreaking feature we have yet to hear about) iPhone may seem like a retread, an evolutionary rather than a revolutionary device. An evolutionary device is unlikely to sway the already unconverted, especially with a shiny new alternative.
This is not to say people will not buy in droves and people will no re-up. But the question will be, are apple only preaching to the converted. If Pre launches and it seems revolutionary, particularly in the innevitable side-by-side comparisons that will come out, Pre will seem great and attract interest. Additionally, Palm would get to piggyback off the press attention due to the inevitable comparisons. And the Palm device does seem revolutionary and it also makes for a great press story, Palm returns like a Phoenix from the ashes. An underdog going toe-to-toe with the behemoth and not being afraid of it.
I am not saying this is the strategy, and I am sure Palm would love to launch sooner rather than later, but this defeatist assumption that "Apple trumps all" is a bit misguided. Especially since Apple has already botched some recent product launches and seems to be becoming a victim of its own success. You can't consistently be the revolutionary, particularly when you are the largest force in the market.
Also, it seems unlike Steve Jobs will be giving the keynote which also takes some of the sting out of things given Mr. Jobs's integral role in being their best marketer.
Honestly, given the playing field, I would give Palm a better chance against the iPhone 3.0 than I would have against the iPhone 3G launch. Not that it is the ideal situation for Palm and Sprint, but if it comes down to it and the launch is pushed into June, Palm and Sprint have no reason to shy away. In fact they need to go on the offensive and make Apple seem behind the ball.
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