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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by jim_johnston
    Hey GoodGuy, just curious, seeing as you work for Good, (BTW, sorry about the earlier post saying Good is dead, it was more for emphasis) whats your thought on where this is all going? I don't want you to share any competitive info but what are your market thoughts and where do you see it in two years? BTW, I don't work for any competitor of Good.

    No offense taken on the Good is dead. Been hearing that for years and we are hanging in there.

    What I see happening has already started: Consolidation. When I started at Good 2 years ago, here is a list of the people in this space:

    Extended Systems
    JP Mobile

    Now, Smartner was aquired by Seven, Intellisync by Nokia, and Extended Systems by Sybase, JP Mobile by Good. Visto and Seven are primarily white-box players. Which leaves RIM, Good and Notify. Notify is primarily in the Notes space (which Good just entered) as I have never run into them on the Exchange side.

    That brings us to the boys from Redmond. When it was first announced they were going to provide push, people started writing our epitaph. My initial reaction was "So what, they never get anything out on time nor do they get it right the first time." Now, that the product is out there, my feeling is close to the same. Take a look at this matrix:

    Company------Platforms Supported------Devices Supported

    RIM--------------Exchange >=5.5, Notes, Groupwise-----Blackberry Only*

    MSFT-------------Exchange 2003 SP2------------------WM5 with AKU2

    Good--------------Exchange >=5.5, Notes---------Palm,WM5,Symbian,PPC

    *Before anyone says anything about Blackberry Connect, let's see an American carrier deploy it.

    Now, what this shows is that the addressable market for MSFT is much smaller than that of RIM or Good. MSFT wants the OS. They own the desktop OS, now they want the handheld OS. This is a direct shot at RIM, not at Good. With that being said, RIM has countered with BES Express, their free server offering. This is a counter-shot at MSFT. RIM can do that because 70% of their revenue is from hardware and the margins on software, as whole, are very high. With the entrance of Motorola with the Q and it's very low price point, with Nokia coming to the States with the E62 (haven't seen a price point yet), the margins on hardware are going to start getting eroded, which will have a direct effect on RIM.

    Whew..with all that, where does that leave the space in general and Good in particular. I think the space is headed to where people want to go beyond email. Remember, I am speaking of the enterprise space, not the SMB or individual market, as the enterprise tends to do things first, then the rest follow suit. People want access to back office applications. They have major security concerns. The want faster, bigger, better. This brings three points into play: Device capabilities, increased bandwidth, and applications. The wireless space is very similar to the PC market 15 years ago. The hardware could not keep up with the software. When the hardware axis and the software axis crossed, the PC revolution occured. Add in high-speed networks and internet access, we are where we are now. We are seeing the same thing now with the wireless space. Increased device capabilites are coming (ie, memory enhancements, battery improvements, etc) and 3G networks are just on the horizon. That leaves the applications. I have seen our roadmap and outiside of new device support, we have some great things coming, which I think will be our biggest differentiator. MSFT has nothing beyond email, RIM is still the closed, proprietary system. Is email becoming a commodity? Possibly, but not for awhile yet. There will not be a single winner in this space, but the leader will be the company that has the vision and the capabilites to see beyond email.

    Disclaimer: This is strictly my opinion and not that of Good corporate.
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by Tastypeppers
    Or look at Nexchange which died a mysterious death.
    Nothing mysterious about it, really. No secret Palm murder plot going on.
  3.    #23  
    Hey Good, thanks for your opinion, very insightful. I didn't even know about the BES Express offering until you mentioned it. Definately RIM's answer to the MSFT challenge. I do like the concept of the push/sync being built directly into the messaging platform. Its no big deal for a Fortune 500 enterprise IT department to throw a few more servers into the mix and get an admin trained on BES (or Good) to support it, a different story for SME. Many of my past clients, 10-50 desktops didn't have an internal IT person and even some up to 100. You are 100% on the button about the trickle down effect from enterprise to SMB/SME.... Thats exactly what we took advantage of as a service provider, we took the trends and productivity of IT at the enterprise level and scaled them down to the SME. Very familiar with ARPU. I used a very similar metric internally, which was a good barometer to judge how we were doing, a good snapshot.... We called it ARPS (average revenue per subscriber).

    BTW, after your explanation and chart, definately see Good's value prop. Not many Enterprises standardize on a single handheld platform. Not sure if the readers at TreoCentral would be interested, but they should sticky your post!!! I see more posts about playing music, etc... We should get TreoCentral to start a business productivity forum.
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