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  1. ogeneo's Avatar
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    Amid indications that Apple Inc. is ratcheting up its iPad production targets to meet booming demand, iSuppli Corp. is ratcheting up its shipment forecast as well.

    iSuppli now predicts Apple will ship 12.9 million iPads in 2010, an increase from the previous forecast issued April 2nd of 7.1 million units. Shipments will rise to 36.5 million in 2011 and 50.4 million in 2012.

    “The iPad is shaping up to be the ‘Tickle Me Elmo’ of the 2010 holiday season, with product demand expected to vastly exceed available supply,” said Rhoda Alexander, director of monitor research for iSuppli. “Apple has hiked its iPad manufacturing goals to suppliers across Asia. As iSuppli stated in its initial forecast, the key to continuing success will be how quickly Apple responds to issues as they arise and whether the company can align suppliers to meet demand needs. Apple’s acceleration of its component demand indicates that the company has raised its iPad production target for 2010. Our latest research indicates there is much higher production than previously expected for two key components: LCD panels and NAND flash.”

    iSuppli’s original iPad forecast was by far the most aggressive outlook for the product among industry analysis and market research firms issuing outlooks at the time. iSuppli in April characterized its forecast as conservative, and noted that Apple could easily ship higher volumes. Subsequent events have shown iSuppli’s characterization to be correct.

    iPad Ad Infinitum
    “iSuppli believes that the only limitation on iPad sales now is production—and not demand,” Alexander said. “Apple has taken a very controlled approach introducing this product to new markets, with manufacturing limitations likely being the major inhibitor on how quickly iPad sales expand.”

    iSuppli’s believes that Apple can hit the new unit sales figure within the 19 countries it has already announced for 2010 distribution.

    Production Injunction
    Production capacity for the iPad’s projective capacitive screen is increasing daily with new vendors entering the market, expanding production at existing sites and improvements in yield rates at the established producers. While yields on the finished screens reportedly remain well below a desirable level of 90 percent, the expansion in capacity should provide sufficient touch panels to meet iSuppli’s iPad shipment target.

    Arguably, Apple could further increase its 2010 production goals, but it risks sacrificing some quality control in that effort. At present, iSuppli estimates Apple will stay close to the existing production targets, leaving room for further expansion in 2011.

    iPad on Top
    To drive continued sales growth, Apple undoubtedly will refresh the iPad’s features in April 2011. Likely additional changes will embrace an internal camera and expansion of the product line, potentially including additional screen sizes.

    Nonetheless, with nearly 84 percent share in 2010, Apple’s iPad virtually owns the market, and the device is expected to dominate at least through 2012.

    In comparison, much of the competition delayed launching rival offerings following the iPad debut to allow time to reconfigure products.

    For their part, Asus and Acer are expected to release consumption tablets in the fourth quarter of 2010—joining the likes of Dell, JooJoo, and Germany’s WePad—but competition from Apple competitors is not expected to be significant before 2011, when Hewlett-Packard and others are expected to enter the fray.

    To be sure, the major challenge for Apple competitors will revolve less around hardware but relate more to the suite of applications that can be paired with the hardware. Just like the iPhone, the rest of the market is feverishly playing catch-up to the iPad at this point.
  2. #2  
    if it's about apps then windows 7 tablets would have the upper hand right, I mean you know what has alot of apps, windows, especially since there is legacy support. and those apps can do things an ipad can't touch.

    heck windows already sold 150 million liscences, that's a potential market ipads can only dream of.
    heck a quick news search turns uo an expected 58 million netbook sales for 2010, and 355 mill pc's

    pretty incredible, the ipad isn't revolutionizing that any time soon.

    but in the end I don't think the apps are so important, you need enough to have necessities and selection, but it's not a numbers game

    it is a compelling user interface game, and that is where WebOS and palm have the cards stacked in there favor.
  3. #3  

    If I'm HP, Dell, Asus, Lenovo etc. -- I'm sheeting bricks right now when I hear those numbers.

    If Apple gets such market dominance as now seems probable, it will be hard to create a slate that will have sufficient consumer popularity to compete on the high end with Apple -- which means they'll be fighting with each other over the scraps of the low end, a fight based in large part, on price -- and only secondarily on features, apps, and interface.

    Normally this would be a situation where the Windows UI would be at an advantage. OEMs would usually be falling over themselves to get a version of M$'s OS like they did with netbooks, abandoning Linux (because of consumer demand).

    Some will definitely go w/"Slate" Windows -- but others besides HP will not.

    By offering a fairly powerful and yet reasonably affordable ipad, Apple put OEMs under a lot of cost/feature/power pressures. The "Slate" environment is distinct from laptops and normal computers. To save $20-40 OEMs are going to be much more willing to experiment with non-Windows UIs. Apple has shown that users are not getting the ipad to do conventional computer tasks (where Windows is at a distinct advantage). In such a context, UI environments like Android and others based on Linux created by small agile developers, could very well gain considerable market share on OEM Slates.

    This could bring about the first major computer segment evolution not largely dependent on M$, in decades.

    (I remain unhappy that Jobs has succeeded in creating a Walled Garden, one that is completely dependent on his consent for applications, where memory/storage capacity is locked, and where the device has no USB ports...)
    Last edited by BARYE; 07/21/2010 at 06:53 AM.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  4. #4  
    Great post, Barye, but I think the biggest advantage of the iPad, and the one that nobody really has the tools to fight with right now, is Apple's partnerships and ecosystem.

    The iPad is a nifty device on its own, but it lives and breathes based on how much media you consume with it. Apple makes it easy on day one by giving you official comic book apps, e-Reading apps, and iTunes store for all of your music, movie, and TV needs.

    What other tablet - Windows, Android, or WebOS - is going to have all of these things on the device and easily available to users on day one?

    What's even more brilliant is that this has a loyalty and multiplier effect. As people buy this media formatted for this device, they are less likely to leave. They are also more likely to show it off to friends, which makes them want it, which makes them buy it, which makes them less likely to leave....

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