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  1.    #1  
    Anyone have a rough estimate of the number of actual Treo users at this point?

  2. #2  
    This article might give you an idea:
  3. #3  
    Sell through numbers for the first three quarters were 13,000 units then 27,000 units then 44,000 units units for a total of just under 90,000 units. My sell through estimate this quarter is about 100,000 units, which put the new number around 190,000 units.

    On the surface that seems a most aggressive estimate. The basis is a survey on the treo 300 thread, (when did you buy your treo) which shows that Hand sold more Treo 300 units in November than they did in months of August and September combined. Also the Treo 300 continues to be the number 2 through 8 best selling cell phone on Amazon since Sprint announced their new price initiatives. Yet Hand's current share of the celphone market is about 1/10 of 1%. Sprint's decision to offer unlimited data and subsidize lower handset prices on Amazon is what is driving the number of Treo 300s sold up so quickly this quarter along with the fact that last quarter they had a 1.66 month selling period versus 3 months this quarter.

    In the Gsm environoment we are just starting to see the begining of price initiatives based on the grps patch coming from Tmobile who previously didn't officially recognize the Treo. Gprs subscriptions is profitable to tmobile, so they can now afford to subsidize treo prices in order to attract profitable new customers for their network. This is just starting. Bottom line until Hand had the gprs patch in place, their ability to sell the Treo 270 in quantity was damaged. In the March quarter, it will likely be the Treo 270s turn to have sell through quicken, as AT&T and Ciingular are likely to also start officially marketing the Treo once they get their networks ready.

    Hope that helps.
  4.    #4  
    Thanks guys-- just the info I was looking for. Let's break down markets for 2 other estimates (understanding that it's a big SWAG):

    1) All (palm OS based) PDA/Cell Phone hybrids
    2) All (palm OS based) PDA's

  5. #5  
    The Amazon topseller links are:

    US (Treo 300), number 4 at time of writing in category Cell Phones

    Germany (Treo 270), number 11 in category PDA.

    I live in Switzerland and both Swisscom and Orange are selling and advertising strongly for the Treo 270. rvwink: I agree with your estimate of 100.000 sold units this quarter. I have 5 colleagues who have switched to the Treo recently. The new feature in TreoMail where you can synchronise with Lotus Notes is important in Europe. Lotus Notes is one of the most widely used email clients over here.
  6. #6  
    Dear Geir:

    Thanks for your excellent post. That was information that I didn't have available before hearing from you.

    Concerning the question of relative sales, ATV could go to amazon and pull up the survey for pda phones. He will find Treo 300 first, Sidekick Second, TMobile Pocket Pc third, Treo 270 4th and Treo 180 fifth. If he wants more detail he can go to the master phone list and compare the actual standings of the pda phones on the overall list.

    The Amazon survey is inherently not accurate because it doesn't measure total sales, it measures total sales on the Amazon network, so phones not being sold on Amazon are excluded. You can also look on zdnet for another data point.
  7. #7  
    Does anyone here own or consider buying stocks in Handspring? The stock is currently trading around $1.20 but was as high as $100 during the IT-boom. On,
    they have closed the discussion of HAND because it is considered a high-risk penny stock.

    Handspring will present the next sales figures in mid-January. If the pre-Christmas Treo sales have taken off, then now could be an ideal timing for buying the stock.

    Any opinions?
  8. #8  
    How is it that I happened to have an analysis of how many Treos are going to be sold this quarter? Answer, It is because I own a substantial amount of shares in Hand and therefore have been spending time accumulating information.

    There is analysis on the Treo 300 thread called when did you buy your Treo 300. It demonstrates that after a torrid start in August, based on all of the pent up demand probably from the Treo Central regulars, sales for Treo 300 slowed to a crawl in September. In October, there was a disappointing conference call in which Hand lowered their guidance and now one can see why they had to lower their estimates. September Treo 300 sales were well below expectations. Logically sales took off in the second half of October when the low data rates and lowered Handset rates were put into place by Sprint. Treo 300 sales were also very hot in November. So far the thread hasn't shown strong December sales but it is early.

    I think if sales are picking up in Europe, and Treo 270 sales already were good in Asia, and now you suggest that Europe is finally starting to pick up. I know Treo 300 sales are up dramatically from last quarter, so the only potential opening for a shortfall is Treo 270 sales in the US. Hand has stopped shipping to Amazon on their Treo 270 incentive. It would appear that perhaps Hand is shipping inventory to TMobile, which has increased their subsidies for Treo 270s and Treo 180s or possibly to Cingular or Awe, who I think will have relationships with Hand as well. But an improved relationship with TMobile, which clearly exists, will be a huge benefit for Hand.

    Bottom line is that the lack of a gprs patch is what caused Hand to disappoinit and the release of the grps patch internationally is what is going to cause Hand stock to finally take off. JOne other issue is that corporate sales are going to launch anytime soon. The Sprint network is the only national network and it has the lowest rates to boot. I also have the best corporate convergent phone which is the Treo. I just don't see how Sprint can fail to sell alot of units with all of those advantages. Vz isn't cost competitive, doesn't have the national network and doesn't have any competitive phones. Hand is going to start taking market share from rimm.

  9. #9  
    Sprint does not subsidize the Amazon rebates - nobody knows how Amazon makes money off the Treo selling it that cheap.

    My own personal estimate is about 250k total treos (including treo 90's). This is NOT to be taken as advice for any stock purchases or whatever, but i get this through quarterly reports and affiliate sales; tc has seen a huge amount of purchases recently.

    Only time will tell when the next earnings report comes out how HS is doing, and if they will ever make a profit (I am optimistic, and think they might be able to )
    -Michael Ducker
    TreoCentral Staff
  10. #10  
    I admire your technical expertise, but I think you are wrong concerning the Sprint subsidies. I believe that Sprint does offer rebates for the sale of Treo 300s. They have been willing to match the amazon price for some users on Treo Central, which indicates that the economics of the subsidized Treo must be worthwhile for them. I think Sprint understands that this is their perfect time to attack Vz. They have a national network and Vz doesn't. They have the Treo and Vz doesn't. They have the lower data prices and Vz doesn't. Apparently by next February/March they will also have PTT and Vz won't.

    Btw, do you have any comment about the shortage of Treo 270s that occured recently on Amazon. Also on the Hand website they took the picture of the Treo 270 from the display indicating the free DVD. The actual offer still seems in place, but they didn't promote it as dramatically. Perhaps Hand is just trying to push the Treo 180 and clean up that inventory situation. But actually it begins to appear that the Treo 270 is for some reason in short supply. Any thoughts.
  11. #11  
    While sprint might match the rebates to make users happy, i have heard offhand from both companies (don't hold me to this again), that they themselves don't understand how amazon is making money.

    It is very apparent that sprint is on the aggressive to get new users... There was a article in my local paper saying that sprint had 275k? Vision users signed up now.. i wish i had a link for that quote.. it was like 2 weeks ago inthe pioneer press.

    Handspring is definantly trying to push through the 180 - who wants the 180, when you can get the 270 at a simliar price? Hence they are trying to get the 180 price as low as possible. This goes with my orginal statement, that the Treo is picking up and doing well.
    -Michael Ducker
    TreoCentral Staff
  12. #12  
    Originally posted by geir123
    Does anyone here own or consider buying stocks in Handspring? The stock is currently trading around $1.20 but was as high as $100 during the IT-boom. On,
    they have closed the discussion of HAND because it is considered a high-risk penny stock.

    Handspring will present the next sales figures in mid-January. If the pre-Christmas Treo sales have taken off, then now could be an ideal timing for buying the stock.

    Any opinions?
    I love the Treo, but as for the stock , I'd recommend a 10-foot pole, especially as an investment vs. a trade. Stock is down another 18 cents today, or 13+ percent in response to HAND's announcement of a steep drop in the price of the 180. I don't know what their manufacturing and licensing costs are or were for the 180, but $99?!?
    You may be right; I may be crazy. But, the Treo may be just the device I've been looking for.
  13. #13  

    Thanks for your insight. I understand what you are saying and while it is quite puzzling to understand what Amazon is doing, I believe you now that Sprint is not subsidizing the cell phone prices as I originally thought.


    If you look at the Treo 180 offer. Tmobile is contributing $150 toward the purchase price, so Hand's take is $249. In addition, Hand is only selling this device directly and so the whole $249 goes to them, saving the normal fee to the retailer. Not to say that this is a financial bonanza for Hand, but it is not as bad as you portray it.

    Concerning Hand, their sell through each quarter is increasing dramatically. from 13K, to 27K, to 44K, and I think to 100K this quarter. If this growth continues, Hand will prosper. The key issues are:

    Whether or not Sprint will be able to continue to expand its network successfully?

    Whether or not Sprint will have success marketing the Treo to the Enterprise?

    Whether the Gprs patch will result in greatly increased demand in the gsm marketplace both in Asia, Europe and the US?

    Whether the other two US gsm providers Cingular and AT&T will bring the Treo onto their networks officially once they overcome their technical difficulties?

    Whether Hand will be able to announce other Sprint type relationships over time so that it can continue to simplify the user experience by customizing the interface for the service provider?

    Whether Hand which is currently clearly in the lead with 9 months to a year lead time on its competitiors will be able to execute its next generation product and move even further ahead of its competitiors?

    I am confident that the answer to all of the above issues is "yes". Not to say that it is a sure thing. Hand does have to resolve their lease difficulties. But I don't see any substantial competition coming, and this market must continue to grow as more and more consumers realize the benenfits of switching to the new high speed wireless networks. I think the number supplied by Nokia is that 70 high speed networks were brought on stream in the last year.
  14. #14  
    Actually after further thought, I think the Treo 180 offer as other benefits to Hand:

    1) According to the Handspring website there are about $100 in accessories that a purchaser can acquire. Likely the average user spends a fraction of that amount, but there is extra income to Hand coming from the accessories area.

    2) There is a proven upgrade cycle on the Treo. Many users have moved from Treo 180 on to a Treo 270 or 300 over time. Perhaps the owners of the current Treo 180 units could be looked at as potential candidates to upgrade to the upcoming next generation of Treo products.

    3) The key to the Hand marketing strategy is that satisified customers telling frends and family is a powerful way to sell more product. The Treo 180 sales create the potential for further indirect sales as satisfied customers tell their friends.

    Not to say that the sale of the Treo 180 presently is a huge financial windfall for Handspring. Only to say that portraying it as a $99 sale is an inaccurate picture of the transaction.
  15. #15  
    Originally posted by rvwink
    Actually after further thought, I think the Treo 180 offer as other benefits to Hand: ...

    Not to say that the sale of the Treo 180 presently is a huge financial windfall for Handspring. Only to say that portraying it as a $99 sale is an inaccurate picture of the transaction.

    rvwink, this subthread may now belong in "Off Topic". Your accounting is probably accurate; after all, HS just dropped the price to $249 two months ago. But note that "a $99 sale" was pretty much the way Handspring told it to the world in yesterday morning's press release:

    It'll be interesting to see if the market for a $99 phone/PDA -a compelling deal, indeed- will also want a relatively expensive T-Mobile data package that comes with it.
    You may be right; I may be crazy. But, the Treo may be just the device I've been looking for.
  16. #16  
    rvwink, good questions/answers.. couple more things...

    You can learn a ton by listening to the confrence calls carefully. As I recall, Handspring said they were working with two other carriers for this OEM like partnership. (I would assume that these would be announced with possible new Treo's this spring)

    I think Yahoo financials still has the call archived.

    As they said in the call, Handspring really is pleased with their OEM partnership with sprint - it dramatically reduces their costs i would assume. I look forward to a T-Mobile branded Treo.

    MY biggest worry is Handspring getting so close to the finish line, and than going backrupt. As a bystander, i see this market growing - "Palm Pilot" still has a lot of stigma attached to it. Add "Cell phone" and you get a lot of people's attention.

    I agree that Handspring needs the providers backing to survive. Word of mouth does some, but having your product featured in commercials, used by celebreties, talked about.. aggressive pricing, etc... like the treo 300 has had - does a ton for the product. But along with that, T-Mobile + ATT +Cingular need to reasses their GPRS pricing. It is unrealistic for a consumer to pay so much for web access, when CSD overall is much cheaper (abit the speed). IMHO after using Vison, Highspeed service is just not worth it for $2 a MB.

    All I can do is be a crazy fan, and stay patient and informed. I get servce for my 180 by the end of the year, so I'm excited.

    Again, please do not take anything i say for any financial advice.
    -Michael Ducker
    TreoCentral Staff
  17. #17  
    I guess your sales estimate for OCT/NOV/DEC could be pretty accurate, as I believe the traffic on this site provides a very accurate picture of what is happening with handspring products.

    Would you say sales of Treos this quarter is at least 2x last Quarter? If so, what a ramp up! These guys at handspring deserve some success here, don't you think? They seem to be a scrappy group of folks.
  18. #18  
    In no way does traffic on this site represent the real market - we're all techie geeks

    As for 2x the amount of Treo's... I would say from affiliate sales (I hope i don't get in trouble with marcus for sharing this.. but hey.. your purchases run this site now that we have no ad demand anymore) That the sales from this quarter, esp the treo 300, could very well be more than all other quarters combined.

    However, our site really does not represent that people who walk into CompUSA and say i want a cool cellphone. so.. take what you want form this. I think/hope Handspring is doing ok.
    -Michael Ducker
    TreoCentral Staff
  19. #19  
    .....furthermore, if you are using this site to determine the financial viability of Handspring Corporation, IMHO you are in the wrong place.
    Visor Deluxe, Prism, Visorphone, Treo 270, Treo 600, Treo 650, and am eagerly waiting for the next generation Treo...but that the iPhone????
  20. #20  
    The Treo 270 is on IdeData's top ten PDA list in Norway during this week, 4-11 December. The link is here:

    Norway is a small country, but has one of the fastest technology adoption rates. Hence, this market is a good indicator of what to expect in other European markets. The Treo is expensive in Norway, it sells for 1000 US$ including taxes and no service plan. As far as I know, there are no rebates yet when signing up with a carrier in Norway. Even at such a price, the 270 still makes it to the top 10 list.

    It is interesting to note that the "Qtek 1010 Pocket PC Phone Edition" is the only PDA Phone that beats the Treo in this list. The Qtek sells at $1200, is GPRS enabled and Microsoft-based, and I think such phones will be the main competitors for the Treos. However, the Qtek has no thumb keyboard and I think this is a major weakness. The only Palm OS competitor is the Tungsten W which will also get a thumb keyboard, but as far as I know this one is not even on the market yet. The "phoneless" Tungsten, the T, is number 4 on the Norwegian PDA market and sells at $680.
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