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  1.    #1  
    Taking a look at projections on pg 45 of the proxy filed on Fri the 14th for Palm.Estimated revenues of $155MM in Q1 (end Aug) sound like the AT&T pre and pixi. But the $210MM in Q2 (end Nov) suggest a launch of new product ($102MM was expected this Q in roughly month 2,3 and 4 of Verizon pluses so to assume additional $210MM merely from AT&T in months 4, 5 and is unrealistic so I am assuming 1 month+ of new device (Oct/Nov launch similar to Droid last year?).

    Then followed by most of the initial sales from the launch of new device in Dec, Jan, Feb of 2011 ($288MM proj for Q3). Note that Q4 projections of $411MM sounds to me like a launch of new carrier for new device was roughly planned in Mar 2011.

    Looks to me also that a larger chunk of cash was projected to be spent in Q4 of 2010 followed by much lower amounts in Q1 and Q2 so the bulk of R&D for the new device was mostly spent this past quarter ending May with much lower amts budgeted for Q1 and Q2 (end of R&D plus testing and marketing?).

    Of course these projections were done assuming the company remained independent but still they give some idea of the nearterm pipeline which Palm said would remain intact after the acquisition.

    What do you all think of this?
    Last edited by bluenote; 05/18/2010 at 06:21 PM.
  2.    #2  
    "supposed to" make $400MM+ but the point is that the Verizon launch showed that they are not making that on the pluses so the projections were revised according to the actual run rate. The $400MM run rate projection will be back for the new device (Q3 of $288MM plus one month or so of Q2). Also a large chunk of cash looks like it was spent in this past Q which would give 5 or 6 months to build and test the new device. Engineers, does that sound right for a timeframe?
  3. #3  
    Look, they've been working on something Post Pre for a long time now. We have no idea where it is in development. They might have started test devices 5-6 months ago.

    I really wish that they'd tell us more info. Partially to keep WebOS faithful from leaving their carrier and locking into another phone.
  4. #4  
    Disappointing, but I don't now how the #s support anything but perhaps a Sprint + release any time soon. Unless they really have almost no revenue now and are being very conservative for the buyout estimate ...

    That said in theory ... maybe they want to surprise attack launch right at Evo Iphone launch ... but they would need a carrier and HP blessing. I am not sure HP would like that, so it seems to me they are content releasing what they have around the world and had triple downed on their tablet. Good thing they ran into HP ...
  5. #5  
    based on the proxy, the numbers in the fall likely for the tablet

    they seem satisfied to clear out inventory by having the plus and adding carriers around the world.

    my only dark horse hope, is that they plan an EVO iphone release date release of a Palm Plus +. That way they don't lose face and maybe keep a few of their year old customers.

    On the other hand Sprint seems to be saying F&%K OFF dudes ...

    PS they should come up with brand new names regardless - the pre and pixi are jinxed and have NO resonance. The pixi is an awesome form factor but I have seen a thousand times dude posters having issue with it. What were they thinking? They should have had a pink one and called that the PIXI.

    The pre is a great idea BUT why have a marginally sh&tty keyboard when one big thing that differentiates you is the keyboard
    Last edited by funkmeisterbrau; 05/22/2010 at 05:35 PM.
  6.    #6  
    Interesting thought. But as an indie, I don't think they would forecast entering a new market with a slate device (which is basically not only unproven by them but back in Feb/Mar/April was almost new for any player) until they achieved robust success with their initial smartphone market. Also they did not have the money to support two product lines. So if anything, the numbers would be new smartphone (and HP numbers would factor in a slate device).
  7. #7  
    im saying in june sometime
    Here is a direct link to webOS Doc for all carriers
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  8. DJPrelude's Avatar
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    if palm would just leak a pic or some specs of a new device with a sliding keyboard i would wait, even if it was six months away. but if they dont leak or release something by the end of june/beginning of july then i cant say ill wait
  9. #9  
    I am pretty hopeful that something substantial will be leaked or there will be an announcement before the hp acquisition goes through.
  10. #10  
    My bet is they will launch the Pre+ and Pixi+ on Sprint soon. The large expenses later in the year will be to produce whatever hardware they plan to launch in early 2011. They have to pay for all that production up front, and most of the devices are made in a large initial batch, with contingency plans to make another run if demand is strong...

    Of course, all of this is based on plans made BEFORE the HP agreement, so it could be changed dramatically in the next few months. They could bring out new phones sooner, add more models to the Plus lineup, and start selling a tablet to compete with the iPad before the end of 2010 if HP has been working on that in parallel with the merger - or hopefully they were working on that stuff in partnership with Palm long before the merger talks...

    Remember you heard it hear first...

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