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  1. Fittske's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by luvdldy

    Is Bluetooth 1.2. Because I am tired of the way that my bluetooth works.

    Oh sorry, one more thing...

    BETTER RECEPTION! Along with the obvious better pixel camera, Wifi, etc.

    Sounds like you want a PPC 6700
    "When Palm announced today that its new smartphone would run an operating system from Microsoft, it was the equivalent of Coca-Cola agreeing to fill its bottles with Pepsi." ~David M. Ewalt, Forbes Magazine
    My Phone history.....
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by rvwink
    Quite surprised that you dismissed the Sagio report. Sagio really does own 5% of Palm stock and this gives them leverage with Andrew Brown, with analysts and also with Inventec and HTC to gather viable information about upcoming Treos. The fellow at Sagio responsible for the report, who I have communicated with, is very much on the level, imo.

    I thought it amusing that you were so anxious for a Treo 700P rumor and when one fell into your leap from a credible source that is a 5% owner of Palm stock, you dismissed it as if they had zero credibility. Is it possible, you are conflicted?

    Btw, they now expect the 700 P in March, April, and they also expect Sprint to get the 700 W in April May. Wonder if this means an agreement between Sprint and Verizon allowing Verizon will get the 700P in April May as well?
    good point!

    the Sagio report was EXTREMELY detailed as well ---- it pretty much gave rationale for why anyone should continue investing within Palm products ---- I would say that, the way its written, it is competely accurate
  3. #23  
    According to them, at the time they wrote and published the report, they did not have any Palm stock yet. The report is also littered with inaccuracies and hyperbole. Fake is too strong a word, but I would not call it reliable either.

  4. #24  
    Instead of dealing in generalities, how about some specifics. Leaving their command of english aside, what inaccuracies and hyperbole are you referring to? I have communicated directly with the author of the report and asked him for back- up information on some of the data supplies. (For example, I asked what the basis of his 2.5 million Treo estimate was?) I liked how he supported his position.

    As the report was written a month ago, one more recent update is that the 700 P is not expected until the March, Apri timeframe presently. Its not rocket science that if you or I owned 5% of Palm stock, we would acquire the ability to get our questions answered more accurately by both security analysts and Palm Management about the upcoming product rollout.
    Last edited by rvwink; 11/28/2005 at 06:35 PM.
  5. #25  
    sounds like rvwink may be an insider at Sagio with his spinning of the facts, is Surur is correct and they id not own the Palm stock at the time then I am not sure how them now owning 5% plays into the report being accurate as they were not in a position of influence at that time, is that true rvwink?
  6. #26  
    I didn't know Sagio at all, prior to the release of their report. I took the liberty of asking a few questions, and was pleased that I got a response. Don't think that makes me an insider, only a curious individual interested in finding out if the data supplied was derived in a reasonable manner.
  7. #27  
    PALM had 11% of worldwide market share behind both RIMM (22%) and NOKIA (17%).
    This line particularly stretches my incredulity. They never define what they call a smartphone, but suddenly Palm (with 600 00 units sold quarterly) is 11%, and Nokia, who sold 7 000 000 Symbian devices, suddenly has 17%.

    Sounds like "New Maths" to me.

  8. #28  
    Here's another one:

    Palm open platform approach makes it today the only hardware manufacturer that can run any of the email application cited above. In my view this is one of the most important competitive advantages that PALM has today.
    HP's mobile messenger line can also run all the relevant clients from good, rim and intellisync. And this is supposed to be one of the most important competitive advantages.

  9. #29  
    Possibly the biggest "inaccuracy".

    Overall we think PALM has a great history as an innovator.
    I'm sure various Clie, Handspring and Handera fans can explain why the only innovative thing Palm ever did was create the Palm Pilot.

  10. #30  
    then answer my question rvwink about how you came to mistakenly claim they owned 5% of Palm when at that time they did not own that stock? if you say they provided the information to you and you made that claim something seems awfully fishy here. were they just wrong in stating that to you?
  11. DHart's Avatar
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    Owning 5% of the stock COULD leverage their position to get better information. But it could also just as easily encourage the analyst to "set the right spin" on the stock with a very favorable report. This would not be the first time this has happened. And speaking directly to the analyst to get the facts and ask questions only gives the analyst an opportunity add more spin.

    I'm not saying that is what is happening here, but why is the analyst in business? To make money. How does this happen? The stock he owns increases in price. How can he help increase the price? ETC, ETC, ETC
  12. #32  
    You know I agree that the analysis was amateurish. They said a lot of silly things. But I'm gonna have to push back on a couple points. (I don't have a copy of the report now. Though I read it a few times, apparently I never saved it locally, and I guess Sagio took it offline.)

    Smartphones: You have a legitimate case against them on this one. But I think the right response is to ask how they define "smartphone." Arguably, their numbers aren't "inaccurate" if they're consistent with their own definition. (If their definition is unreasonable, then you can say they're "misleading.")

    I'm not very familiar with Symbian, though I do know people generally call all Symbian phones "smartphones." Are they all capable of email and the web? Can they all run third-party apps? How many have keyboards?

    If you believe that the email/web/phone device with a keyboard market is the relevant market (the one Palm and RIM choose to play in), then what are the market share numbers for that?

    HP: Are you sure about this? I don't recall HP ever licensing the Blackberry client, and I wasn't able to locate any reference to it.

    Innovator: Come on now. I think Palm has a legitimate claim to this. Not only did Palm absorb the Handspring entity, the guys who developed the Treo at Handspring are running Palm. Palm can claim the Palm Pilot, the Visor, the Treo, and the LifeDrive, among other things, as examples of true innovation, though with mixed business success.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    This line particularly stretches my incredulity. They never define what they call a smartphone, but suddenly Palm (with 600 00 units sold quarterly) is 11%, and Nokia, who sold 7 000 000 Symbian devices, suddenly has 17%.

    Sounds like "New Maths" to me.

    That specific information comes from the Palm analyst conference. The chart was displayed at that conference so it is Palm data rather than Sagio data.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    Here's another one:

    HP's mobile messenger line can also run all the relevant clients from good, rim and intellisync. And this is supposed to be one of the most important competitive advantages.

    Palm has had a policy to give the user numerous email choices. As individual service providers make independent deals with the likes of good, and intellisync, that versatility starts being a valuable commodity. Frankly HP isn't even a substantial competitor of the Treo presently. The important point is that Rimm, Nokia and Mot do not have the flexibility that Palm does imo and that Palm's versatility with email clients will help Palm get access to even more service providers. Sagio was pointing out a valuable Palm asset and I think they were right.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur
    Possibly the biggest "inaccuracy".

    I'm sure various Clie, Handspring and Handera fans can explain why the only innovative thing Palm ever did was create the Palm Pilot.

    Palm virtually invented the pda and innovated plenty. The force behind that was the team installed by Jeff Hawkins and Donna Dubinsky. When they left, the team left too and Palm stagnated because Eric B didn't know what he was doing. But Palm has had a tradition of innovation and Jeff and Donna are back and for you to call that the biggest inaccuracy seems a bit strange to me.
  16. #36  
    The Nokia 9300i tri-band GSM smartphone with EDGE we saw last month is now official. Like Nokias E-series phones, the 9300i targets business users and sports a wide 640 x 200 pixel display throwing down 65k colors with an additional 128 x 128 display on the cover, a full QWERTY keyboard, and support for BlackBerry Connect, Nokia Business Center, IBM WebSphere, Oracle Collaboration Suite, Seven Always-On Mail and Visto Mobile enterprise eMail solutions and all the MS Office attachments you can cram into the included 80MB internal storage with MMC expansion. It also features WiFi (802.11g), Bluetooth, and speakerphone with five-party conference calling skills. Fortunately, Nokia brings you wage-donkeys some relief with MPEG-4 and MP3 playback support in hopes of keeping you off the ledge. The 9300i should drop round these parts in Q1 06.

    Here's another example of the supposed Treo advantage being erroded. Remember the multiplicity of push mail clients was supposed to be the main advantage, but Palm is far from exclusive in being supported in this manner.

    Regarding innovation - who introduced the first high res screens, the first colour screens, the first high res+ screens, dual wireless, dual slots etc etc. Even the Treo was created by a company not called Palm. The lifedrive is an example of exactly how NOT to innovate. Its problems was not due to poor market acceptance, but to poor design in the first place. Using a HDD for main memory is just crazy.

    I saw that Palm analyst day presentation, but I do not recall that slide. I would appreciate a link.

    Sagio is pulling together public information without any attribution, and expect investors to take them seriously. Maybe the uncritical ones do.

  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur

    Sagio is pulling together public information without any attribution, and expect investors to take them seriously. Maybe the uncritical ones do.

    Clearly Surur, you are not an uncritical one. In fact that seems to me to be the problem. You get very upset about Sagio's supposed mistatements which turn imo to be much to do about nothing. I suggest your critical nature is a bit too finely tuned.

    It seems me that the spirit of Palm's innovations started at Palm and then left in exile to Handspring and then returned to rejoin Palm. That is the community of innovation that Ed Colligan refers to. You could object that while they were at Handspring, the innovation doesn't count, but I think that would be nitpicking. While at Handspring, the Palm founders ran rings around the data centric idiots from Nokia that you chose to highlight. After all of their attempts to turn the market in another direction, Nokia is finally getting around to copying the Treo format. I'll bet it smarts, for Nokia to finally acknowledge that Jeff Hawkins had it right years before they did. Also when Palm innovates by introducting a different breed of product in the lifedrive, for you to suggest that it was not innovation because you were critical of one aspect of their development is also quite weak. Its clear that Palm broke new ground here, and when you do something completely new, you usually don't get it exactly right the first time around.

    Concerning a link for the market share data, I don't know how to link a slide from a conference. But the slide was was provided by the Palm employee appearing just before Andrew Brown. You will probably be able to find it about as fast as I could if I looked again so that I could give you a specific slide number.
  18. #38

    I found the slide. In very small script you can see they exclude all series 60 phones which exclude all these phones including this Treo look-alike running serious applications like these and these, which include GPS and Office files and email etc.

    Excluding the most popular smartphones in the world smacks of massaging the numbers. However in this case its clearly Sagio who so uncritically repeats that stuff without repeating the disclaimers. I see even the 31% marketshare of Palm in USA exclude series 60 phones.

    I have not actually seen those slides (i was thinking of another set) but it is now clear that most of the info from the Sagio report came from there. Would it have killed them to add an attribution?

    Anyway, I dont want to upset anyone, however Sagio says $50 per share for Palm would be very reasonable and anyone who relies on this report as a clear reflection of the future should be very careful, and deserve to be warned.

    Last edited by surur; 11/29/2005 at 12:53 PM.
  19. #39  
    I've lost interest in the Sagio side of this discussion, but I wanted to jump in to say that I find Palm's dismissal of S60 phones to be an amusing twist of reality. In that presentation, the Palm exec (Colligan, right?) dismissed S60 phones as not being "true" smartphones. This was a necessary lie in order to put the Treo on top in his chart. The reality is that S60 phones *are* real smartphones.

    Of course, the term "smartphone" is somewhat nebulous, and there are many opinions of what makes one phone a smartphone and another phone just a featurephone, but my definition is pretty basic: If it converges one or more non-phone feature and has an open development platform, it's a "real" smartphone, IMO. I'm fairly certain that S60 phones have always had memory expansion (MMC), their platform is open to development by shareware/freeware developers and apps can be installed by end-users without needing to go through the cell carriers, the GUI was designed from the ground up to be optimized for a phone platform, and it's a multitasking OS.

    My main criticisms of the S60 platform have been, or are being, addressed:
    - Low-res screen by today's standards. Newer devices support higher-res screens (not sure what impact this has on backward-compatibility, as I don't believe they went the pixel-doubling route).
    - Lack of a good built-in text input method. Two upcoming Nokia S60 phones have thumbboards. Note also that even older S60 phones could be used with IR or Bluetooth foldable QWERTY keyboards.
    - Stereo headphone output was late to be adopted as a standard feature (made its debut on the N-Gage and I think all recent S60 phones support stereo now).

    I find it odd and amusing that one of the main reasons Palm (and even Palm OS users) claim that S60 phones aren't "real" smartphones is because the majority of users don't know what OS in inside and don't install 3rd party apps. Well, the same could be said about any low-cost Palm OS device purchased by non-tech-savvy consumers.

    One significant problem still remains, though: There still aren't any CDMA S60 phones available. Nokia may be doing just fine profit-wise by serving the larger worldwide GSM market, but without some CDMA offerings, they'll allow Palm to dominate in the US.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  20. #40  
    Well, Palm was "on top" in the chart only physically. In Palm's own slide, they put themselves third in marketshare.

    I'll ask this again: Are all Symbian phones capable of email and the web?
    I believe that's the relevant market. I think email/phones and music/phones are going to be the two major market segments. Treo, RIM, and HP are going after the first. The traditional handset companies, such as Samsung, Motorola, Nokia, Sony-Ericsson, want it all.

    When you're measuring the performance of Palm, RIM, and HP, I think it's pointless to include phones that don't do what their target market wants in a phone.
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