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  1. mcurrens's Avatar
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       #1  
    I hope this analyst doesn't know what he's talking about.

    HP and Palm: How To Waste a Billion Dollars
  2. #2  
    It is negative. And I don't think the bad parts will happen. But Wolfgang does make some interesting points.
    Sprint: 2-TouchPad 32g, Frank.-Pre-2, Pre-, MiFi & 1-LG Lotus with Xlink tied to home handsets. Backups: 650 & 700wx

    HP Please release the CDMA Pre3 phones!
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  3. blz2's Avatar
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    #3  
    Someone had to write a negative article, it's only logical. Well 'F' him for trying to rain on our parade!
  4. #4  
    He is nobody columnist anyhow.
  5. #5  
    I think he makes a valid point, but basically all he said was that hp will probably eff it up, which may or may not happen. I agree with him that hp should basically let palm act independantly, and if not Its not hard imagining this being a big flop for them.
  6. ray1b's Avatar
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    #6  
    There are so many haters out there.
  7. #7  
    Extremely short-sighted article.

    * Market share: The arguments about low market share don't make much sense. It's still a growing market and if low market share would be a reason not to enter the smart phone market then neither Apple nor Google should even have tried either. The smart phone market was already well occupied by Symbian, WinMo and Blackberry phones.
    Look at articles when Android first appared and how many of those claimed that Android would surely fail.

    * HP might make a mess of it: Possible. Only time will tell. But every anecdotal story about past mistakes could also easily be seen as a lesson learned by HP, making it less likely to make the same mistakes again.

    * 1.2 bn price: We don't have all the facts. HP did and that's what it was worth to them. They are a big tech company with pathetic (hardly any) presence in the mobile market. Tiny Palm made HP efforts look invisible.
    WebOS gives HP a chance to complete their portfolio of techs and to compete as a first rate player at the main table. Sure they could market android phones or licence WinMo7, Meego or whatever. But they they would play according to their competitors rules and still not have what Apple has.

    With WebOS they get a jumpstart into this vibrant market. And with the possibility to out-apple Apple.
    A couple thousand apps is not much yet compared to the Android and Apple stores - but it's a world and a couple of years away from what HP has without Palm.
    How much would it cost HP to create a new mobile OS, develop a few devices (Palm, Pixie and whatever Palm has in the pipleline), debug, troubleshoot, market to carriers, get developers involved, etc...? Together with the time that would take HP is buying a shortcut into one of the most important of todays tech markets.

    The apps are already coming to webos. Palm already made it fairly easy to port apps. The main thing holding big-name devs back was the risk that webos might be dead by the end of the year. Now that that risk is gone more companies will invest a few hours/days per app to port them to webos.

    Heck the catalog was still growing nicely and giving us apps like TweetMe and plenty 3D Games (how many platforms have multi-tasking *and* 3D Games? Right.) while Palm was known to be in serious financial trouble. HP throwing money, marketing muscle and industry connections at the problem is not going to hurt now that people can expect it to be around for the foreseeable future.

    All webos needed was the time and money to get a solid successor to the Pre out.

    Among all the doom and gloom people overlook what tiny Palm accomplished within less than a year.

    2000 apps not enough - right - but it was 0 a year ago.
    Many of the early problems (video, etc...) have already been fixed - by *software* updates. How many IPhone and Android owners can say that?
    The Android market is already very fragmented and Apple is getting ever more restrictive and annoying. They long ago forgot their own and are busy out-eveling ;-) MS.

    WinMo 6.x was so behind-the-times that MS has to do an incompatible reboot. Only time will tell if WinMo7 can even re-grab the dying market share WinMo has at the moment. MS can throw money at the problem and push it better than most - but they start from scratch with the app market, loose most of their partners (no customizations allowed anymore) and most of what they presented so far is better at beating WinMo 6.x in 2009 than the competition of 2011.

    IMHO webos is being massively underestimated by many analysts. It was held back by lack of resources. That problem is now getting fixed by HP.

    If HP does not mess it up (and I believe they are highly motivated not to - this is very important for them) then the market will look very different in a couple of years.
    And todays analysts talking down webos will look just as silly as those who did the same when Android appeared (which I believe will be #1 by then - followed by Apple and webos, RIM and MS will compete for 4th place, Meego struggling and Bada a failure outside its home market - if it ever takes off; Symbian will be a Zombie by then).

    By the end of the year I see webos 2.x on a solid shiny new phone (compatible with Touchstone - alone a great innovation), with good developer relations and a best of all worlds platform that is second to none. And a HP designed tablet/pad device running webos announced for 2011.

    Let's see how expensive this deal looks by then.


    p.s. Oh yes - and there's some defence nukes in the form of patents too. Anybody who thinks that patents are the main value of Palm doesn't get it. Patents are mainly an offensive weapon against small companies and a MAD defence measure vs the big name competition. Many/most of them would not stand up in court (USPTO seems to give them out like candy at Halloween). And those that do stand up in court get cancelled out by the counter-patents the competition has. Their main value is as FUD bombs and that's why we have seen so few Patent battles between the big players. It'll be interesting to see how the Apple-vs-HTC battle plays out. I hope it doesn't get settled. Should be interesting and I predict that to be eventually be a big mistake on Apples side.

    The patents are a very nice bonus that HP gets from the deal. A few more nukes that HP will never actually launch - but help them counterbalance the nukes from Apple and MS.
  8. #8  
    Sounds like this guy simply doesn't care for webOS.
    My device history:

    - Jim J.

    (On Sprint for many years)
  9. #9  
    its really easy to trash webos, and say it's nothing special, but that's only till you use it for more than a week. Once you get use to webos, everyother platform seems dumb. Every iphone I use seems to be broken. The gesture area never works, and when I hit the centre button it closes my app. Then I remember its an iphone, and get frustrated at how dumb it is...
  10. kg4icg's Avatar
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    #10  
    Anything from THG that looks like that, isn't a article, it's a blog. I wouldn'y pay anymore attention to it then I would put my hands into water filled with hungry pirhanna.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by tholap View Post
    Extremely short-sighted article.

    * Market share: The arguments about low market share don't make much sense. It's still a growing market and if low market share would be a reason not to enter the smart phone market then neither Apple nor Google should even have tried either. The smart phone market was already well occupied by Symbian, WinMo and Blackberry phones.
    Look at articles when Android first appared and how many of those claimed that Android would surely fail.
    very good point, here is an article about andriod being a failure written only one year ago:

    Has Android Already Failed? | Sascha Segan | PCMag.com

    It seems everyone like to sensationalize the new the new on the internet and proclaim thinks failures, dead, or successes far too early, just so that when it happens that claim they said it first or if they were wrong every one has forgotten their claims by the time everythings settled.
    iPhone 4s 64gb for personal, at&t Prē 3 for business. Best of both worlds.
  12. StevenX's Avatar
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    #12  
    There are a number of very noticeable grammar mistakes in the first couple of paragraphs. I tend not to trust people trying to pass as an authority on any subject when they can't string sentences together properly.

    There are some very lazy facts presented and a few strange statements in the first few paragraphs also. One example is an early mention of HP buying Palm "including its debts." I thought it was confirmed during the investor call Palm had no significant debts?

    Also, "even HTC reportedly wouldn't buy Palm." Why is the word "even," in that sentence? Is he trying to imply HTC are so desperate they should have jumped at the chance? And even if that were true, which it clearly isn't, why should that matter if the discussion's about the strategies behind the acquisition?

    Clearly this writer had a very limited approach to this article and it's easy to see how poorly written and constructed this "argument," is going to be early on...
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by fernandez21 View Post
    very good point, here is an article about andriod being a failure written only one year ago:

    Has Android Already Failed? | Sascha Segan | PCMag.com
    Thanks for quoting that article. Exactly the kind or half-baked drivel I meant. And there were many articles like that.

    Replace Android with Webos in that article and notice how it exactly reads like a contemporary piece about Webos.

    Once upon a time the Iphone only had 100 apps while WinMo and Symbian had thousands available. Should Apple have given up then?

    Once upon a time Android only had 100 apps while Iphone had many thousands should Google have given up then?

    You need to get 1000 before you get to 10000. It's a step - not the end.
    When Webos has 20000 apps somebody will say they have no chance because Iphone has 200000+ - but - even considering the long tail - you get diminishing returns and and eventually it's just the umpteenths fart app.
    It's true that webos still misses many productivity and utility apps that people would like to have - but it already has more 3D games than Android (0 AFAIKAFAIKAFAIK).

    Somebody will say that post Iphone you can't just offer a few hundred apps and expect to be a big player. That's true - the situation is different now. That's why having a big player like HP behind it can make a big difference. Like Google behind Android it means that the tough phase until it gets to 10000+ apps can be credibly financed.

    Also the very fact that many apps have already been written for the Iphone will mean plenty of apps for webos. Most of the necessary effort creating the apps has already been spent. Porting it to webos is a relatively tiny investment. That means the market can be much smaller it still make sense to port to. The income only needs to cover the effort to adapt the app - not create it from scratch. And that's exactly what some devs have told us about what happened.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by tholap View Post
    Extremely short-sighted article.

    * Market share: The arguments about low market share don't make much sense. It's still a growing market and if low market share would be a reason not to enter the smart phone market then neither Apple nor Google should even have tried either. The smart phone market was already well occupied by Symbian, WinMo and Blackberry phones.
    Look at articles when Android first appared and how many of those claimed that Android would surely fail.

    * HP might make a mess of it: Possible. Only time will tell. But every anecdotal story about past mistakes could also easily be seen as a lesson learned by HP, making it less likely to make the same mistakes again.

    * 1.2 bn price: We don't have all the facts. HP did and that's what it was worth to them. They are a big tech company with pathetic (hardly any) presence in the mobile market. Tiny Palm made HP efforts look invisible.
    WebOS gives HP a chance to complete their portfolio of techs and to compete as a first rate player at the main table. Sure they could market android phones or licence WinMo7, Meego or whatever. But they they would play according to their competitors rules and still not have what Apple has.

    With WebOS they get a jumpstart into this vibrant market. And with the possibility to out-apple Apple.
    A couple thousand apps is not much yet compared to the Android and Apple stores - but it's a world and a couple of years away from what HP has without Palm.
    How much would it cost HP to create a new mobile OS, develop a few devices (Palm, Pixie and whatever Palm has in the pipleline), debug, troubleshoot, market to carriers, get developers involved, etc...? Together with the time that would take HP is buying a shortcut into one of the most important of todays tech markets.

    The apps are already coming to webos. Palm already made it fairly easy to port apps. The main thing holding big-name devs back was the risk that webos might be dead by the end of the year. Now that that risk is gone more companies will invest a few hours/days per app to port them to webos.

    Heck the catalog was still growing nicely and giving us apps like TweetMe and plenty 3D Games (how many platforms have multi-tasking *and* 3D Games? Right.) while Palm was known to be in serious financial trouble. HP throwing money, marketing muscle and industry connections at the problem is not going to hurt now that people can expect it to be around for the foreseeable future.

    All webos needed was the time and money to get a solid successor to the Pre out.

    Among all the doom and gloom people overlook what tiny Palm accomplished within less than a year.

    2000 apps not enough - right - but it was 0 a year ago.
    Many of the early problems (video, etc...) have already been fixed - by *software* updates. How many IPhone and Android owners can say that?
    The Android market is already very fragmented and Apple is getting ever more restrictive and annoying. They long ago forgot their own and are busy out-eveling ;-) MS.

    WinMo 6.x was so behind-the-times that MS has to do an incompatible reboot. Only time will tell if WinMo7 can even re-grab the dying market share WinMo has at the moment. MS can throw money at the problem and push it better than most - but they start from scratch with the app market, loose most of their partners (no customizations allowed anymore) and most of what they presented so far is better at beating WinMo 6.x in 2009 than the competition of 2011.

    IMHO webos is being massively underestimated by many analysts. It was held back by lack of resources. That problem is now getting fixed by HP.

    If HP does not mess it up (and I believe they are highly motivated not to - this is very important for them) then the market will look very different in a couple of years.
    And todays analysts talking down webos will look just as silly as those who did the same when Android appeared (which I believe will be #1 by then - followed by Apple and webos, RIM and MS will compete for 4th place, Meego struggling and Bada a failure outside its home market - if it ever takes off; Symbian will be a Zombie by then).

    By the end of the year I see webos 2.x on a solid shiny new phone (compatible with Touchstone - alone a great innovation), with good developer relations and a best of all worlds platform that is second to none. And a HP designed tablet/pad device running webos announced for 2011.

    Let's see how expensive this deal looks by then.


    p.s. Oh yes - and there's some defence nukes in the form of patents too. Anybody who thinks that patents are the main value of Palm doesn't get it. Patents are mainly an offensive weapon against small companies and a MAD defence measure vs the big name competition. Many/most of them would not stand up in court (USPTO seems to give them out like candy at Halloween). And those that do stand up in court get cancelled out by the counter-patents the competition has. Their main value is as FUD bombs and that's why we have seen so few Patent battles between the big players. It'll be interesting to see how the Apple-vs-HTC battle plays out. I hope it doesn't get settled. Should be interesting and I predict that to be eventually be a big mistake on Apples side.

    The patents are a very nice bonus that HP gets from the deal. A few more nukes that HP will never actually launch - but help them counterbalance the nukes from Apple and MS.
    You have summed up the issue perfectly. That was a very well thought out response to the subject, and a very interesting read.

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