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  1. rlopin's Avatar
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       #1  
    (I posted this as a comment on one of the articles on the home page, but wanted to bring the post to a more relevant forum, so I am re-posting it here)

    I am in violent agreement with the comments about needing to balance the price point charged to the customer against the ability for someone to make a career or even part-time income out of development. Let's do some basic calculations and make some assumptions to see just how profitable this whole endeavor is for the average developer.

    Assume it takes 40 hours a week for 3 weeks to design/develop/unit test an app (240 hours). 10 hours a week for 1 week to create/source/fine-tune all of the graphic elements and to author the online content/help (10 hours). 20 hours a week for another 2 weeks for the bug-fixing/UAT phase based on feedback from users in the homebrew app catalog (40 hours). So it takes a total of 6 weeks from conception to delivery at 290 hours.

    That leaves about 40 weeks in the year to support the app and make major/minor updates (52 weeks/yr less 6 weeks for vacation/holidays):
    Responding to user emails and posting content updates (@3 hours/week = 120 hrs).
    Minor release every 4 weeks (@10 hours/release x 10 releases/yr = 100 hrs)
    Major release twice a year (@20 hours/week for 3 weeks per release x 2 releases/yr = 120 hrs).

    So that's 170 hours (creation) + 340 hours (support/releases) = 510 hours a year.

    Let's say there are 250k users out there, and 1% of them download and pay for the app. That's 2,500 users. Palm gets 30%, developer gets 70%.

    Here is the payback for various price points...

    Price Point | Gross Annual Income* | Effective Hourly Pay rate
    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------
    $1 | $1,750 | $3.43/hr
    $3 | $5,250 | $10.29/hr
    $5 | $8,750 | $17.16/hr
    $10 | $17,500 | $34.31/hr
    $15 | $26,250 | $51.47/hr
    $20 | $35,000 | $68.63/hr
    $25 | $43,750 | $85.78/hr
    $30 | $52,500 | $102.94/hr

    * before taxes

    I know there are a LOT of assumptions here. You probably won't agree with them all. The amount of development and support effort will vary greatly by dev experience, type of app being developed (games take much longer to develop), number of minor/major releases the developer decides to do, the size of the user base (this is a big lever that is out of the control of the developer) and the percentage of downloads (another big lever but more in the control of the developer).

    Of course the 1st app developed is going to take the longest depending on how many of the WebOS technologies are new to the developer. The SDK is of course new to all new developers. JavaScript, CSS, HTML and the Prototype library learning curves will vary by developer. Assume this upfront learning takes 10 hrs a week for 6 weeks because we all have day jobs. That’s 60 hours investing in learning the platform. This is the hidden cost, but it's mostly a one time cost. I am also assuming you spend no effort marketing your app through the internet channels such as YouTube videos and others -- just let word-of-mouth and ratings drive your downloads.

    So you can see that for this particular scenario charging less than $5 for the app does not make much economic sense (unless you live in an extremely low cost region and/or have limited job opportunities). There are about 50 working weeks a year. At 40 hrs/wk that would mean you have in theory 2000 hrs/yr. At 510 hrs/app you could churn out roughly 4 apps a year. If you produce four $5 apps you would earn $35k/yr gross.

    I would love to here from developers of the various apps just how on or off the mark these estimations are for their particular applications. Perhaps a better question is what kind of application does this particular estimation profile match in your opinion?
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  2. kmax12's Avatar
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    #2  
    I think that the 250,000 is a low estimation of the number of Pres out there. Even if it is accurate, the number will undoubtably shoot up in the upcoming year(canadian and eurpean/gsm release, holiday season)

    I didn't get a chance to review all your numbers, but right off the bat I think that your estimations for minor and major releases is way off. If it takes 290 hours to make a release worth app that has already gone through an extensive bug testing beta, youre not gonna spend 220 hrs PER year to update it. I'd say cut of AT LEAST 50 hours from the 220. Just that takes off 10% of the 510 hr total you propose.

    I'd say the 1% user acceptance you state is for a average/ below average app. I think if your spending the amount of time your suggesting on an app it will be above average app. If your smart you can take an approah that will get you promation from palm. I was talking on the phone today to palm about getting my app into the catalog and they told me if I can cleverly highlight a webOS feature (notifications, synergy, using the cloud) they can guarantee that I get a feature. Also if you make 5 apps a year, you have a good chance at making on app that 10% of users purchase.

    One more thing yourd not valuing is the benefit from getting into the market early. You are completely right that making a webos app is a big time investment. But if you put the time in before everyone else does, it could pay off

    Overall, I think the issue for developers should be to come up with new original app ideas that leverage this platforms capabilities and grab users' attentions.

    With all this being said, my current intention is to release ALL my app free in the app catalog.

    I would also be interested to hear what peoples opinions are about free ad-supported apps and the revenue that they could generate.
  3. wp746911's Avatar
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    #3  
    obviously there are many assumptions being made- you freely admit that. I'd say one of the largest assumptions is that raising the price won't decrease the number sold. If you make a gps app or something and offer it for $1, you will get a ton of 'whim' purchases. No one will hesitate very much. If you charge $10 you will get many many less purchases.

    Also, in programming there seems to be a lot of part time programmers. Meaning that there are lots and lots of dudes willing (anxious) to do this on the side for no money. So there will likely be lots of people who will be happy to sell only a few thousand apps for $1 each, b/c that is just extra money in their pocket for doing their hobby that they enjoy. I'd bet that there aren't a ton of people making money full time off apps, just for that reason.
  4. rlopin's Avatar
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       #4  
    Kmax12,

    Thanks for the great feedback, it made me revisit a few of the metrics. I lowered the number of minor releases per year from 10 to 5 to obtain a 50 person-days reduction in LOE. You also mentioned that a download rate of 1% of the user base would be for a below average app that wouldn’t match the quality of the app given the amount of time put into this estimate. I agree with that, but we have to consider that perhaps that might be truer for a free app than a paid app where even $1 can be a deterrent. (As I was about to post this message I noticed a new post by wp746911 who just made a similar argument – thank for contributing your thoughts as well)

    In the beginning though the percentage of downloads will definitely be higher for the early birds since there are fewer applications competing for each user’s attention. This is the reward for taking the risk of investing time in learning to develop for the WebOS platform that you mentioned. As the number of apps grows, the download percentages for each app will reduce, but the larger user bases will help offset that. It’s a nice dance between supply and demand.

    I played around with a few different scenarios touching upon several of your suggestions. Each scenario contains one variable change that has positive impact on the profitability. In addition, each scenario is cumulative with the scenario that precedes it.


    Scenario columns: Price Point | Gross Annual Income | Effective Hourly Pay rate

    Scenario (a): Cut number of minor releases per year from 10 to 5
    result: it now takes 460 hrs to develop an app out of 2000 hrs per year available

    $1 | $1,750 | $3.80/hr
    $3 | $5,250 | $11.41/hr
    $5 | $8,750 | $19.02/hr
    $10 | $17,500 | $38.04/hr
    $15 | $26,250 | $57.07/hr
    $20 | $35,000 | $76.09/hr
    $25 | $43,750 | $95.11/hr
    $30 | $52,500 | $114.13/hr

    Scenario (b): Scenario (a) + Increase number of apps developed from 1 to 4
    result: leaves you with 160 hours free (not enough time to develop a 5th app of same effort; good for 4 weeks of time off a year)

    $1 | $7,000 | $3.80/hr
    $3 | $21,000 | $11.41/hr
    $5 | $35,000 | $19.02/hr
    $10 | $70,000 | $38.04/hr
    $15 | $105,000 | $57.07/hr
    $20 | $140,000 | $76.09/hr
    $25 | $175,000 | $95.11/hr
    $30 | $210,000 | $114.13/hr

    Scenario (c): Scenario (b) + Increase user downloads from 1% to 3%
    result: this has a significant impact on income and the effective hourly rate, but it might be too optimistic. It would be great to get download metrics for existing iPhone apps at various price points rated at 4 of 5 stars.

    $1 | $21,000 | $11.41/hr
    $3 | $63,000 | $34.24/hr
    $5 | $105,000 | $57.07/hr
    $10 | $210,000 | $114.13/hr
    $15 | $315,000 | $171.20/hr
    $20 | $420,000 | $228.26/hr
    $25 | $525,000 | $285.33/hr
    $30 | $630,000 | $342.39/hr

    Scenario (d): Scenario (c) + Increase assumed user base by 25% (for a total of 312,500 users)
    result: this one is out of our control, but if Palm succeeds in all of the planned roll-outs this is possible. Keep in mind that there will likely be additional effort localizing the apps for different languages that has not been accounted for.

    $1 | $26,250 | $14.27/hr
    $3 | $78,750 | $42.80/hr
    $5 | $131,250 | $71.33/hr
    $10 | $262,500 | $142.66/hr
    $15 | $393,750 | $213.99/hr
    $20 | $525,000 | $285.33/hr
    $25 | $656,250 | $356.66/hr
    $30 | $787,500 | $427.99/hr

    I welcome your observations as well as any one else who would like to weigh in. I am in the process of creating an estimation spreadsheet in Excel that allows one to specify many of these key assumptions discussed here and would like to get as much input as possible. It is also possible to model variables that change over time (e.g., the assumed download percentage as some function of the number of overall apps, number of similar apps, and price point), but I would like to keep the first few iterations simple.
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  5. mosdl's Avatar
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    #5  
    Another thing to note is that some apps will be quite specific to a region or country. The netflix app I am working on would only interest US folks. So most likely the more local the app, the higher the price would be if it were for-profit.

    Also I believe that mojo-specific toolkits might come out one day (reusable methods to make mojo easier, etc) that should decrease dev time.
  6. diomark's Avatar
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    #6  
    The way I read this is, develop a crappy app that only 1% of the users install, and you'll only get ~3$/hour.

    Develop a really good app that ~10% of the users will download, and you'll get ~30$/hour.. And that's just for a $1 app.
    -mark
  7. s219's Avatar
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    #7  
    I think the thing to realize is that it will be non-linear and unpredictable. Like the iPhone app market, if you strike gold, you'll do very well. The majority of apps probably won't fall into this category, but a developer can probably expect modest success.

    Based on my experience getting in on the floor of the iPhone App Store, I think there will be a surge of pent up demand for Pre apps when the store opens, and anyone in position will probably do well if they have an interesting or compelling app (doesn't even have to be a great app at that point, just *available*). Some of my best sales were in the early days of the App store when visibility was high and apps were unique. People couldn't help but stumble on your apps, and they were keen to try stuff out.

    The difference will be the size of the market; the surge will be smaller for the Pre than the iPhone. When Palm's store launches, they will have a potential market of hundreds of thousands of devices instead of tens of millions, so that's a couple orders of magnitude different than the iPhone. I don't know if that means Pre developers will need to grab a higher % of the market or have higher prices, but they will need to do something to offset the small market. That consideration is driving me to put more time on my iPhone projects than my Pre projects right now, along with some other factors (some of the existing iPhone app concepts just aren't feasible on the Pre yet, and the thought of a total re-write doesn't make sense in those cases).

    The bottom line to me is that a developer needs to put their efforts into something that is fun and enjoyable, first and foremost. If you have a strong interest in the Pre for any reason, then that alone can trump any business decisions. From there, see where it goes and you might just take in some nice supplementary income.
  8. rlopin's Avatar
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       #8  
    This is a repost of a comment that was originally posted by Cobrakon on Tue, 08/18/2009 - 23:27 under the article that inspired me to start this thread (http://www.precentral.net/palm-openi...talog#comments)

    @rlopin, while I'm sure you worked those numbers based on your personal experience, here's some data from Palmgear.com on of the top Palm app sellers.

    Total apps available (as of today) 15,404

    Apps $10 and under = 4800
    Apps $10~$25 = 3265
    Apps $25 and up = 1383

    So you see the largest chunk of the apps are under $10 (averaging about $7 give-or-take). Now something really interesting is there are 5277 in the freeware category. I being a longtime palm user have personally bought apps in the $4.99 ~ $14.99 range and had no issue with that. The other MAJOR thing is that I was able to "try" all the apps first even if it was only 3-days, that was enough to decide if I liked it or not. Palm should seriously stay with that model as it worked well.

    If they start releasing $24.99 apps, the nails will start sealing the proverbial coffin.
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  9. rlopin's Avatar
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       #9  
    As mentioned earlier in this thread, I am in the process of creating a spreadsheet that developers can use to estimate their potential income selling apps at different price points given a set of assumptions. Here are the assumptions and default values you will be able to input thus far:

    (LOE = Level of Effort, in person-hours)
    [low, med, high] refers to different LOEs for different levels of complexity. Currently I have default metrics for what I consider a medium complexity application. The definition of what low, medium and high complexity means will be provided for each task type.

    Inputs
    1. Minor releases per year [5]
    2. Major releases per year [2]
    3. Number of working weeks in year [50]
    4. Number of hours worked per day [8]
    5. Palm Rate %
    6. Developer Rate - 30%
    7. User base #
    8. Download rate %
    9. Number of downloads/year
    10. Number of applications developed/year (the spreadsheet will let you know when you exceed the number of available hours)
    11. Gross Income Goal

      Task Type LOE (one-time):

    12. Concept/Design LOE [low, med = 40, high]
    13. Dev/Unit Test LOE [low, med = 80, high]
    14. Graphics/Help Content LOE [low, med = 10, high]
    15. User Acceptance Testing LOE [low, med = 40, high]
    16. Server Side Component LOE [default=0]


    Task Type LOE (annual/recurring):
  10. Support LOE [low, med = 120, high]
  11. Minor releases LOE [low, med = 50, high]
  12. Major releases LOE [low, med = 120, high]


  13. Outputs

    Scenarios will be displayed for the following price points:
    $1, $3, $5, $10, $15, $20, $25, $30

    The spreadsheet will calculate the following for each price point…
    • Gross Profit
    • Effective dollars/hour earned
    • Hours required to achieve goal
    • Hours Surplus (Deficit)
    • Goal Achieved Flag (an indicator of when the goal is met or exceeded)


    Your Feedback

    Your feedback is desired! I want to make this truly useful and not overly complex.

    1. What do you think the default metrics for low and high complexity should be for each task type?
    2. Do you agree that the default LOE metrics listed describe a medium complexity app?
    3. What other outputs would you like to see?


    Here are a few I can think of...
    • Project duration
    • Different LOE metrics for different developer skill level (or perhaps just use a single multiplier factor)

    Thank you.
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  14. #10  
    Well, we're not going to be seeing iPhone-like numbers of users any time soon, but it seems like it's a pretty sure thing that there are at least 300,000 Pres out there right now. We're pretty confident that there were 200,000 sold in June, and seems like 100,000 in July is about the consensus. Now we're almost finished with August, and the Pre is about to launch in Canada, so there will be another pop in demand.

    Before long, the Pre will launch in Europe. I think by this time next year, we could conservatively say that there will be 1M Pres out there. And then we'll have the Eos at some point in the near future. So there will be lots more WebOS users out there in the near future. If you're going to look at annual income, you would have to take that into account.

    It might also be instructive to get some stats from PreCentral on the number of downloads for homebrew applications. They're all free, but it's also certainly a smaller audience. At any rate, it could help gain an understanding of download numbers versus ratings.
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  15. rlopin's Avatar
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       #11  
    @jbg7474 I have included the User Base size (input#7). Folks will be able to put whatever number in there they feel will represent the audience size for their app at the time they believe it will be released.

    Let's all hope the growth goes as planned. The number of users is a major lever in the profitability of the app.

    Precentral indicates on the Homebrew page the "number of downloads today". Unfortunately, what is needed is the number of downloads per application. I believe I read somewhere that the next version of FileCoaster will allow one to sort an app by number of downloads.

    With the app ratings, price, number of downloads, frequency of updates it should be possible to put together some interesting metrics and see what the correlation is between quality and price, or frequency of updates vs. change in rating over time.

    What would be great too is if I could get metrics on the level of effort to develop the apps from my fellow coders, along with their level of experience and the type of app(s) they developed. This would enable me to set up the spreadsheet such that someone can pick the type of app from a drop-down, and their level of experience from another drop down, and the complexity of the app from a third drop-down and then it would calculate the probable level of effort it would take to create the app. This side of the equation affects the effective pay rate and the number of apps that can be created in one year if one were to go full time.

    Thoughts anyone?
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  16. Smubeht's Avatar
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    #12  
    I think in calculating this a lot of your logic is flawed. You aren't considering demand based on price at all. You are using a static 1% of the user base will download the app. That is not the case at all. If the app is $1 you may get 20% who pay it, where as if the app is $30 1% buys it, granted its a popular enough app. According to your initial model that would be 2500 at $30 and 50,000 at 1$ = 52500($30) and 35000($1), Granted I pulled these %s out of air same as you did for your estimates. But it is another side to consider. Also now you have to factor future potential for a 5$ app is higher based on the $1 app because you have 50,000 users instead of 2,500.
  17. Smubeht's Avatar
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    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by rlopin View Post
    @jbg7474 I have included the User Base size (input#7). Folks will be able to put whatever number in there they feel will represent the audience size for their app at the time they believe it will be released.

    Let's all hope the growth goes as planned. The number of users is a major lever in the profitability of the app.

    Precentral indicates on the Homebrew page the "number of downloads today". Unfortunately, what is needed is the number of downloads per application. I believe I read somewhere that the next version of FileCoaster will allow one to sort an app by number of downloads.

    With the app ratings, price, number of downloads, frequency of updates it should be possible to put together some interesting metrics and see what the correlation is between quality and price, or frequency of updates vs. change in rating over time.

    What would be great too is if I could get metrics on the level of effort to develop the apps from my fellow coders, along with their level of experience and the type of app(s) they developed. This would enable me to set up the spreadsheet such that someone can pick the type of app from a drop-down, and their level of experience from another drop down, and the complexity of the app from a third drop-down and then it would calculate the probable level of effort it would take to create the app. This side of the equation affects the effective pay rate and the number of apps that can be created in one year if one were to go full time.

    Thoughts anyone?
    This is also irrelevant. You are going to compare multiple different apps. # of Downloads may be entirely due to the pricing. So a $3 app may sell 10,000 copies and a $5 6,000. You don't know whether the $3 app at $5 would even sell 6,000, because the reason it may have sold so well may simply be its pricing point. This is also instantly making the decision that the higher priced app is better as well. Does that have to be the case? I don't agree with that either. The developer may put in more effort, but doesn't mean that app is better than the $1 or $3 apps. Maybe the $1 ones since those will be congested with dumb apps.

    The only way you can compare this is if the same app(not even a replica) is selling at two pricepoints. Quality ratings instinctually have a pricing perspective built in. Look at the homebrew apps ratings. Imagine you put all those apps at $30, many of those apps would get rated like crap. Not because they are bad, but because for $30 they are.

    It is near impossible to find two similar quality items that do different things that are at completely different price points.

    If your testing to see which pricing point has more poor quality. That result is obvious before you even do anything. $1 apps will be flooded with poor quality while those who make $30 apps will likely have at least a 3-3.5 star rating. Why is this? The $1 apps are quick put togethers a lot of times and a lot of times they are also useless apps that people download but realize does nothing for them. The $30 app only those who really want that specialty item will purchase it, and also since it has a higher pricing point I'd imagine it'd innately be expected the quality is higher than if it was a $1 app. So the developer bearing that in mind must have a higher concern for quality then the $1 app developer.

    While overall $1 apps will have poorer quality than $30 apps. There can be $1 apps that are better and more useful than the $30 ones, but to figure that out, and vice versa is a difficult thing, since its purely subjective, unless you survey like 1000 people, and perhaps find their favorite app. From that point then pricing is irrelevant since those who purchased the $30 app and those who didn't all will have a favorite app or maybe multiple. If they didn't purchase the $30 app they are saying its not worth it. From that point you can figure out the ratio of choice/price and then figure out which is better.
  18. cooltpmd's Avatar
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    #14  
    You are going to compare multiple different apps. # of Downloads may be entirely due to the pricing.

    Don't forget Price Point will give Apple a huge advantage for a long while.

    Many solid programmers, like some in this thread, can spend the same development time ... charge $1 in the Apple store instead of $20 in the Pre store and make much more money ... orders of magnitude in people is where the money is.

    I am a longtime Palm OS user and developer ... the $30 price point of Classic alone was enough for me to not even test it.

    If they had posted it for $5, I would have purchased it sight unseen.
  19. rlopin's Avatar
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       #15  
    To sum up the last two posts by cooltpmd and Smubeht, rating and price point are intertwined. So when we say rating is affected by price point then rating has effectively become a measure of 'value', not of the application's 'quality' -- answering the question "Is it worth this price?"

    I would like to separate the two variables into "quality of app" and "price point", and use a forecasted percentage of downloads to in effect measure the value.

    As a guide, this is my interpretation of the various levels of quality…
    1 - quick and dirty app, novelty -or- has too many bugs (e.g., fart app)
    2 – limited use, maybe only one screen, it does one simple thing well (e.g., tip calculator, MyIP)
    3 - decent app, appeals to a lot of people, but shelf life may not be that long –or- app is missing some key features to make it feel more complete (e.g., a great game but with a limited number of levels – like when the game ‘blocked’ first came out it got great reviews but folks complained they completed it too quickly until later on when more levels were published and people were given the option to create and submit their own levels)
    4 – very well written app, appeals to a large group but maybe not general enough to appeal to everyone in the base (e.g., a restaurant locator that works really well, but has no listings for several cities)
    5 - very well written app, very useful or entertaining, broad appeal (e.g., MyTether, Prepod, Blocked, FileCoaster)

    I have to admit it looks like I am mixing some aspects of quality with some aspects of utility. A tip-calculator may be of high quality, but low utility. An app for pilots may be of high quality and high utility to a pilot, but low utility to the average person. Same goes for an app just for doctors, or just for Europeans, etc. So there will be the ability to override the default values to handle these special cases until I can figure out how to model these aspects (perhaps create a quality/utility index).

    This is where I need everyone’s help. I would like to crowd-source this by asking that folks fill out the ‘?%” below. I will use this to model the number of downloads. If I could get my hands on download data by app rating from any of the major app download sites that would be great, but even that is tainted as folks may be using rating as a value indicator, not a quality indicator.


    Percentage of Downloads at different quality and price points


    ......quality (higher is better)
    price 1__2__3__4__5
    $1... ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $3... ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $5... ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $7... ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $10 . ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $15.. ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $20.. ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $25.. ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $30.. ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%
    $35.. ?% ?% ?% ?% ?%


    Please copy/paste the above table with the percentages filled in based on your opinion.
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  20. #16  
    Here is a good article on this arguement
    Coding Horror: Software Pricing: Are We Doing It Wrong?
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  21. rlopin's Avatar
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       #17  
    This was a good article -- thank you for posting it. It led me to a Wikipedia page describing the concept of price elasticity (Price elasticity of demand - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia) which seems to really fit what we are observing in the phone application market.

    Here is how they define it:
    Price elasticity of demand (PED) is defined as the measure of responsiveness in the quantity demanded for a commodity as a result of change in price of the same commodity. It is a measure of how consumers react to a change in price.
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  22. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by cooltpmd View Post
    You are going to compare multiple different apps. # of Downloads may be entirely due to the pricing.

    Don't forget Price Point will give Apple a huge advantage for a long while.

    Many solid programmers, like some in this thread, can spend the same development time ... charge $1 in the Apple store instead of $20 in the Pre store and make much more money ... orders of magnitude in people is where the money is.
    The other aspect of price point that has not been discussed is software piracy. The more you charge for an app, the more likely it is that people will just steal it. Stealing code from WebOS apps or just stealling the entire app is trivial. Piracy is much harder to accomplish on the iPhone.
  23. rlopin's Avatar
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       #19  
    As trivial as it may for a technical person to copy an app, for the vast majority of Palm Pre users stealing the code will not be an option.
    Phones>Ericsson->iPaq->Treo700w>>PalmPre & TouchPad<<PC<-Amiga<-C64<-Vic20<-PET<Computers
  24. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by rlopin View Post
    As trivial as it may for a technical person to copy an app, for the vast majority of Palm Pre users stealing the code will not be an option.
    Judging by these forums, a decent number of Pre users have the minimal skills required and there will doubtless be 'warez' sites that crop up. I think it might be better to treat WebOS as an open source development opportunity rather than a way to make a living. If you app does anything interesting, someone will reverse engineer it in an afternoon.

    From a purely revenue based perspective, the iPhone and the Blackberry OS are clearly the best platforms to develop though there is still life left in Window Mobile. Android is technically the most interesting platform but it still has very little market share. WebOS is clearly going to have a vibrant homebrew scene.
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