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  1. #41  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Not if Blackjacks, Centros and Blackberries continue to surge. As Denny said, the iPhone is only one phone.
    If 40-45 million is really right I have my doubts. Numbers of some relevance:

    1) RIM sold 5.4 million devices in the last quarter they reported;

    2) Total WM device sales for last year (to June IIRC): 18 million (includes non-QWERTY devices of course);

    3) Centro sales 2 million in a little under a year.

    - all from memory and unchecked (please correct me if I'm wrong).

    40-45 million iPhones over the next year would be ~34-39 million more than last year. So for growth of all WM QWERTYs + Palm OS Treos + Blackberries to exceed growth of the iPhone, combined sales of the former would need to at least double I think. Of course there are also the other QWERTY devices to consider, notably Nokia S60 E series handsets (unfortunately Nokia doesn't break the numbers down enough to get at the numbers for just the QWERTYs). Still, against a backdrop of declining economic growth an increase in sales of 35 million plus for WM QWERTYs + Palm OS Treos + Blackberries + Nokia QWERTYs does seem unlikely. That said, the 40-45 million iPhone 3Gs seems rather high to me too
    Last edited by marcol; 08/22/2008 at 08:37 AM.
  2. #42  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    If 40-45 million is really right I have my doubts. Numbers of some relevance:

    1) RIM sold 5.4 million devices in the last quarter they reported;

    2) Total WM device sales for last year (to June IIRC): 18 million (includes non-QWERTY devices of course);

    3) Centro sales 2 million in a little under a year.

    - all from memory and unchecked (please correct me if I'm wrong).

    40-45 million iPhones over the next year would be ~34-39 million more than last year. So for growth of all WM QWERTYs + Palm OS Treos + Blackberries to exceed growth of the iPhone, combined sales of the former would need to at least double I think. Of course there are also the other QWERTY devices to consider, notably Nokia S60 E series handsets (unfortunately Nokia doesn't break the numbers down enough to get at the numbers for just the QWERTYs). Still, against a backdrop of declining economic growth an increase in sales of 35 million plus for WM QWERTYs + Palm OS Treos + Blackberries + Nokia QWERTYs does seem unlikely. That said, the 40-45 million iPhone 3Gs seems rather high to me too
    You are forgetting the increasing number of QWERTY dumb phones, which after all make up the bulk of the market.

    Surur
  3. #43  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    You are forgetting the increasing number of QWERTY dumb phones, which after all make up the bulk of the market.
    To forget them I'd have to have once known about them! Like what?
  4. #44  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    To forget them I'd have to have once known about them! Like what?
    Sidekick
    LG EnV
    Samsung Messenger
    Samsung f700
    LG Prada II
    LG Voyager
    Helio Ocean
    LG KS360
    HTC G1

    ... to name but a few.

    Surur
  5. #45  
    who cares about others?

    I don't wanna use a phone that everybody have.

    I wanna be special and unique!
  6. Biggles's Avatar
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    #46  
    Quote Originally Posted by treopq View Post
    I wanna be special and unique!
    Have no fear, you're safe on that one.
    ;-)
  7. #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Sidekick
    LG EnV
    Samsung Messenger
    Samsung f700
    LG Prada II
    LG Voyager
    Helio Ocean
    LG KS360
    HTC G1

    ... to name but a few.
    Thanks. Certainly a few I've never come across there. Of those I have (Sidekick, Helio Ocean, Voyager) I'm not sure I'd call them 'dumb phones' but let's not get into that one again.

    I presume from this:

    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    You are forgetting the increasing number of QWERTY dumb phones, which after all make up the bulk of the market.
    that you have sales numbers?
  8. #48  
    Quote Originally Posted by treopq View Post
    who cares about others?

    I don't wanna use a phone that everybody have.

    I wanna be special and unique!
    For you:


    Just 1.3 million of your American dollars.
  9. #49  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Thanks. Certainly a few I've never come across there. Of those I have (Sidekick, Helio Ocean, Voyager) I'm not sure I'd call them 'dumb phones' but let's not get into that one again.

    I presume from this:


    that you have sales numbers?
    I did not say QWERTY dumb phones make up the majority of the market, but that dumb phones make up the majority of the phone market. Surely thats given?

    Surur
  10. #50  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    I did not say QWERTY dumb phones make up the majority of the market, but that dumb phones make up the majority of the phone market. Surely thats given?
    Ah yes, I see how it could read that way now. I'd guess that the number of Sidekicks, Oceans, Voyagers etc sold would relatively small in comparison to WM and Nokia QWERTYs, Palm OS Treos and Blackberries. That is just a guess though.

    EDIT. Can't find numbers for Sidekick or Helio Ocean. Voyager sold 1.3 million from release to end of Q2 2008 (a little over 7 months):

    http://www.lge.com/about/press_relea.../20879_1.jhtml
    Last edited by marcol; 08/22/2008 at 10:39 AM.
  11. #51  
    Quote Originally Posted by marcol View Post
    Ah yes, I see how it could read that way now. I'd guess that the number of Sidekicks, Oceans, Voyagers etc sold would relatively small in comparison to WM and Nokia QWERTYs, Palm OS Treos and Blackberries. That is just a guess though.

    EDIT. Can't find numbers for Sidekick or Helio Ocean. Voyager sold 1.3 million from release to end of Q2 2008 (a little over 7 months):

    http://www.lge.com/about/press_relea.../20879_1.jhtml
    So basically nearly as fast as the centro or blackjack...

    Surur
  12. #52  
    ... but not making much of a dent in 40 million. The 40-45 million number really does seem terribly high though. More than twice what WM did in the last year, really? You follow this more closely than me I think. Have Microsoft made a prediction for how many WM licences they'll shift in the coming year?
  13. #53  
    @surur,
    i did not know that htc was going to make the new treo pro---interesting news, maybe the 850 will be a good back up device to have with support from xda!
    Naveen

    Current:Cingular 8525 w/Faria R32

    Next Phone:
    Something from HTC because Palm sucks, so I want a Touch Pro, Touch HD, or a Treo Pro.
  14. #54  
    Quote Originally Posted by Thunder God View Post
    @surur,
    i did not know that htc was going to make the new treo pro---interesting news, maybe the 850 will be a good back up device to have with support from xda!
    I think the 850 was nothing more than a rejected earlier prototype of the Pro. I wouldn't be looking for an 850. Has anyone seen ANY new information concerning the 850?
    --Inspector Gadget

    "Go Go Gadget Pre!!"
    Palm Pre on Sprint

    Palm V--> Palm IIIc--> Visor Prism--> Visor Phone--> Treo 270--> Treo 600--> Treo 650-->
    Treo 700wx--> HTC Touch Diamond--> Palm Pre & HTC EVO 4G.
  15. #55  
    I hear the head guy is into names. Doubt we'll see more numbered phones. Kinda like treo pro though.

    So what do you think comes after? Treo Pro 2? Treo Pro 2009?

    Centro 2 seems inevitable.

    Guess the new palm OS2 device is yet unnamed, although quattro is being floated around but makes little sense to me..lol Hey, is that the spanish phone? But then again, these are the guys who gave us Foleo..
  16. #56  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
    I hear the head guy is into names. Doubt we'll see more numbered phones. Kinda like treo pro though.

    So what do you think comes after? Treo Pro 2? Treo Pro 2009?

    Centro 2 seems inevitable.

    Guess the new palm OS2 device is yet unnamed, although quattro is being floated around but makes little sense to me..lol Hey, is that the spanish phone? But then again, these are the guys who gave us Foleo..
    Treo UltraPro
    Treo Platinum
    Treo Supreme
    Treo Stupendous
    Treo Spectacular
    Just call me Berd.
  17. #57  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    Treo UltraPro
    Treo Platinum
    Treo Supreme
    Treo Stupendous
    Treo Spectacular
    i have seen the treo spectacular already. the problem is the release date is somewhere around 3018
    Naveen

    Current:Cingular 8525 w/Faria R32

    Next Phone:
    Something from HTC because Palm sucks, so I want a Touch Pro, Touch HD, or a Treo Pro.
  18. #58  
    I forgot about the Treo Ultimate
    Just call me Berd.
  19.    #59  
    I stopped liking the numberring one or two iterations after my 650. They released the 700's, then the 680, I think, then the 755p. Hm. The 750 was in there somewhere, too. Helluva jump back and forth. There seemed to be no rhyme or reason.

    May as well go with more regular names.
    * Stuck patches? Partial erase worked for me.
    * Stuck virtual keyboard? Partial erase AND folder deletion worked for me.
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