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  1. #41  
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianPre View Post
    Until more people actually realize what can be done on a real smartphone they will likely be happy with what they get, even if it is half baked.
    Truth be told, a lot of are moving up from dumbphones or advanced texting devices like the blackberry line.

    Once you have people that are moving from smartphone to smartphone you will see expectations jump RADICALLY rather than from the current shift of dumbphone to advanced text device (blkberry) or dumbphone to mediocre smartphone.
    Smart phone to smart phone (over the next year) will be more of a trade of features, rather than an argument over what works....
    ie. expect to see a move from an iPhone to the new HTC Incredible or the Palm Pre to the iPhone

    Its all about expectations and the majority of people have none, because they are not 'techies' and as such don't understand how much the phone can and should do and how easy is should do it. <shrug>

    not a knock against the people, just a comment about how their thought patterns will change over the next two years.
    Well put, and here's another piece of that puzzle.

    Those that jump from smartphone to smartphone are going to be less likely to be brand loyal (or DIS-loyal). In other words, if Evo is the hottest thing when their contract is ready for a new device, they'll jump. If another brand, even another OS, is available a year later, they'll jump again. And they (likely) won't care about a company's past failures. If that were the case, any chances of WinMo ever succeeding would have been squashed the first time MS put Windows CE on a PDA a decade ago.
  2. #42  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    ...
    You add up sell through of every quarter WebOS has been on sale, and that number is somewhere around 1.5 million (not all of which are WebOS devices).
    ...
    Factcheck time. Pandora is currently at 1.7 million downloads. There are many WebOS users that never downloaded Pandora. I think your estimate of 1.5 million is a tad shy.
  3. #43  
    Quote Originally Posted by CanadianPre View Post
    Hmm...I see that they now have 2 year plans at Bell for the 99.99 cost. (Previous a 2 yr plan was $550 for the phone).
    Still that doesn't compare to the USA where the phones are 2 for 1 on a 2 year contract and at most $40 bucks total to buy the 1st phone. Not counting the fact they get a Pre Plus, whereas we get the original.

    My plan is a little more extensive than yours.
    450 mins local
    10 unlimited contacts across country
    5pm to 7am unlimited weekdays
    unlimited weekends
    unlimited data (real world limit is 5gb)
    tethering is NOT included (got my plan before they offered it)
    unlimited text
    insurance plan
    $104/month
    Can't compare that way. If that's the case, everything is overpriced here. It's not just the the Pre, our iPhones are all 3 years (they won't even sell you one if you don't sign or anything less, it's either full price or 3 years), theirs are 2 years as well.

    And if you want to talk cheap, try Hong Kong. Practically if I pay 40 bucks a month Canadian, I get unlimited everything already, minutes and data. Optional features are pretty much standard (VM, CID, CFWD, etc.)
    Palm IIIc -> Sony CLIΙ T650C -> Sony TJ-37 -> Palm TX -> Palm Centro -> Palm Pre Bell -> Palm Pre Plus Bell/Verizon Hybrid -> HP Veer -> HP Pre 3 NA -> BlackBerry Classic -> BlackBerry Priv

    It's a Late Goodbye, such a Late Goodbye.

    Need OEM Palm Pre parts? See here
  4. #44  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Palm has said for quite some time, that they planned on losing money. And even though they said their losses were more than anticipated, they also said they are able to continue on, and plan on continuing. I always find it interesting one people except the negative of what a company states, and ignore the positive. I suppose folks will find what they're looking for in these things.

    I'd say anyone that looks at it objectively. What was the purpose of these handsets? To pull Palm out of their almost certain closure. Have they closed? Nope.
    I'll repeat, Folks will find what they're looking for in these things.
    Come on, sir. Look at what you did there.

    "The purpose of the handsets is to pull Palm out of almost certain closure."

    Ok, ok....agreed.

    "Have they closed?....nope."

    Whoa. What's responsible for that? These handsets? Or the money raised from the PROMISE of these handsets? Big difference. Did the Blackberry Storm sell one million handsets in a month because of the handsets or because of the PROMISE of the handset? Obviously, it was the promise, hype, etc. That deflated, and the device is widely (and correctly) regarded as a joke and a failure.

    Same difference here. Sweep the financials aside for a second. NOBODY releases a device with the purpose of it declining in popularity inversely proportionate to it becoming cheaper and more widely available across the world. It's failed.
  5. #45  
    mikah912, I think you don't realize that Verizon had significant (hundreds of thousands) numbers of Pres to sell that weren't moving because of all the issues that have long been beat to death around here. When they started getting fully trained and then dropped the price on the phone (along with free mobile hotspot), the phones have been moving from everything I have seen and heard. I would suspect that Verizon will have moved 200k-300k more Pres by the time we get to Palm's next quarterly report, if not more. AT&T will probably be able to move 300k-600k units in the next few months. Combine that with a another 500k-800k devices in the other countries being launched in at the end of this month, and I think you will see the user count hit 4 million in 3 months.

    Again, in a market that will grow to 1-2 billion users in the next couple of years, why does Palm have to be number 1, 2, or 3 to be successful? If they can get to the point where they are selling 5-10 million phones a year, I think they might just be fine.
  6. #46  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Factcheck time. Pandora is currently at 1.7 million downloads. There are many WebOS users that never downloaded Pandora. I think your estimate of 1.5 million is a tad shy.
    Think, Herb. How many Pres have been resold? How many people have bought a Pre off Ebay or Craiglist? Pandora downloads are not 1:1 with Pre sales.

    But you're right in that my math is slightly off:

    Palm sellthrough for each quarter the Pre has been on sale is: 810,000 (Q1 FY 2010) + 573,000 (Q2) + 408,000 (Q3 - this past quarter) = 1.78 million units sold through TOTAL.

    In Q2, estimates of WebOS breakout was around 79 percent ("less than 80" was what was generally bandied about). That drops Q2 to 452,670 as a best estimate.

    Q1 almost certainly had a lower percentage of that figure with WebOS devices just hitting store shelves. Let's say...70 percent. That's 567,000 WebOS devices sold. Have no idea what Q3 was, but let's be generous and say 100 PERCENT. Cool?

    That's 567,000 + 452,670 + 408000 = Well, you get my point. The most generous estimate is 1.5 million actual WebOS sales, and it keeps dropping.
    Last edited by mikah912; 04/16/2010 at 02:24 PM.
  7. #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by falconrap View Post
    mikah912, I think you don't realize that Verizon had significant (hundreds of thousands) numbers of Pres to sell that weren't moving because of all the issues that have long been beat to death around here. When they started getting fully trained and then dropped the price on the phone (along with free mobile hotspot), the phones have been moving from everything I have seen and heard. I would suspect that Verizon will have moved 200k-300k more Pres by the time we get to Palm's next quarterly report, if not more. AT&T will probably be able to move 300k-600k units in the next few months. Combine that with a another 500k-800k devices in the other countries being launched in at the end of this month, and I think you will see the user count hit 4 million in 3 months.
    That's all nice, but there are no numbers of factual reports to substantiate any of it. Rubinstein has used the "training" excuse for two straight quarters. But Verizon would have to move more Pre Pluses since they're practically giving them and the mobile hotspot away at this point. That's not really a bellweather of the tides turning. AT&T's launch is about as written in stone and reliable as the date for Adobe Flash for WebOS.

    Again, in a market that will grow to 1-2 billion users in the next couple of years, why does Palm have to be number 1, 2, or 3 to be successful? If they can get to the point where they are selling 5-10 million phones a year, I think they might just be fine.
    And in a year where they had the most buzz, the least amount of high end competition, and were still lucky to get near 2 million units sold across all carriers, why do you think they will suddenly jump to 5 million in sales with no new hardware or OS features anywhere in sight or even leaked?
    Last edited by mikah912; 04/16/2010 at 02:23 PM.
  8. #48  
    It's not important "how" Verizon is moving the phone. It's that they are rapidly expanding the user base. It's already a well known fact that Pre users tend to be very passionate about using their device and word of mouth is getting out. If they keep moving the phone like that, more people will see them and want them.

    Palm had limited availability when this phone first launched. The Sprint exclusive, combined with a lack of GSM devices, killed their early numbers. The have said they have learned from their mistakes and will have wider releases with more models in the future. I would assume that future is during the confines of this year, as it is a matter of long term survival.

    Palm is to the smart phone as AMD is to the PC. They've both been dead or doomed to die for years. They are still here.
  9. #49  
    Quote Originally Posted by falconrap View Post
    It's not important "how" Verizon is moving the phone. It's that they are rapidly expanding the user base. It's already a well known fact that Pre users tend to be very passionate about using their device and word of mouth is getting out. If they keep moving the phone like that, more people will see them and want them.
    Biggest hole in this theory: The more WebOS is made available and the cheaper it is to acquire it, THE LESS IT SELLS. This has been the case for three consecutive quarters, and Palm says to expect little to change for the next quarter. Beyond that sales trend, it shows that the passion of existing WebOS users doesn't seem to be doing enough to migrate new people to the platform.

    Palm had limited availability when this phone first launched. The Sprint exclusive, combined with a lack of GSM devices, killed their early numbers. The have said they have learned from their mistakes and will have wider releases with more models in the future. I would assume that future is during the confines of this year, as it is a matter of long term survival.

    Palm is to the smart phone as AMD is to the PC. They've both been dead or doomed to die for years. They are still here.
    Let me state this again to be clear: The MORE it is available, the LESS it has sold. Their early numbers were also their best numbers. Sellthrough decreases despite them "learning", offering new models, offering it on more carriers, offering a mobile hotspot, and carriers decreasing the price.

    So if none of these things have resulted in sales increasing, what will in 2010? New hardware is just a hypothetical at this point.
  10. #50  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Come on, sir. Look at what you did there.

    "The purpose of the handsets is to pull Palm out of almost certain closure."

    Ok, ok....agreed.

    "Have they closed?....nope."

    Whoa. What's responsible for that? These handsets? Or the money raised from the PROMISE of these handsets? Big difference...
    Nope, because without the handsets, there would be no promise.

    However, even going along with your scenario, the company is still moving along, based on the "promise" of those same handsets. They've announced nothing else to date, and they are still picking up new customers and new carriers.

    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Did the Blackberry Storm sell one million handsets in a month because of the handsets or because of the PROMISE of the handset? Obviously, it was the promise, hype, etc. That deflated, and the device is widely (and correctly) regarded as a joke and a failure.
    You are overlooking the most obvious comparison.
    The Storm is not being sold any more (and no, the Storm2 is not even close to the same device). The Pre and Pixi are.
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Same difference here. Sweep the financials aside for a second. NOBODY releases a device with the purpose of it declining in popularity inversely proportionate to it becoming cheaper and more widely available across the world. It's failed.
    I'll freely grant you that one. And if/when Palm stops making the device(s) because their popularity is declining, I'll agree they have run their course (whether or not I feel they were failures will depend on whether or not they made Palm more money than they cost them). However, it's an undetermined point right now, since the device is still selling, no one can determine yet whether it's been a success or not.
  11. #51  
    Your on OLD NUMBERS. The Verizon sell through issue was BEFORE they greatly reduced the price. That's your problem. You don't see that things might have changed. We'll know in about 2 months.

    Sprint sold most of the units it was going to sell because of it's dwindling number of customers. Unless you look at the complete picture, you're conclusions will be faulty.
  12. #52  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    ...
    That's 567,000 + 452,670 + 408000 = Well, you get my point. The most generous estimate is 1.5 million actual WebOS sales, and it keeps dropping.
    Sorry guy, but your opinion doesn't constitute fact. There are plenty of estimates far greater than 1.5 million, so yours isn't "the most generous". Your last comment reveals the prejudice in your comments. The 1.5 million (or 2 million, or even 582,395; if that's the number) is not going to drop, unless Palm starts giving refunds. You don't get a negative number with it. The 1.5 million is not going to drop, and is likely going to rise.

    Keep trying though, maybe eventually we'll get a "Doom and Gloom, Palm is going UNDER" forum on here. It'll probably be popular with some for decades.
  13. #53  
    Quote Originally Posted by falconrap View Post
    Your on OLD NUMBERS. The Verizon sell through issue was BEFORE they greatly reduced the price. That's your problem. You don't see that things might have changed. We'll know in about 2 months.

    Sprint sold most of the units it was going to sell because of it's dwindling number of customers. Unless you look at the complete picture, you're conclusions will be faulty.
    In addition, he's ignoring the full context of the "expectations" announcement. No where did Ruby say that Palm expected fewer devices to be sold to consumers in the upcoming quarters. They said current sell-through was going to affect their numbes. If sales go up (and it appears they have), Palms numbers will still be in the tank (as Rubenstein stated) because they are selling inventory they already have.
  14. #54  
    Opinion? Those are Palm's numbers, not mine. 1.5M has to be the CEILING For any estimate of how many WebOS handsets have sold as of last quarter's figures (just released weeks ago). Keep in mind my figures actually came to 1.4M. Even if you were generous and gave Palm another 150K in sales in past month due to recent fire sales, it changes nothing.

    I showed you the stats of how I provided those numbers. I would love to see the math on any estimate you provide of WebOS sales being over 1.7 million.
  15. #55  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Opinion? Those are Palm's numbers, not mine. 1.5M has to be the CEILING For any estimate of how many WebOS handsets have sold as of last quarter's figures (just released weeks ago). Keep in mind my figures actually came to 1.4M. Even if you were generous and gave Palm another 150K in sales in past month due to recent fire sales, it changes nothing.

    I showed you the stats of how I provided those numbers. I would love to see the math on any estimate you provide of WebOS sales being over 1.7 million.
    Last quarter's figures. The discussion (and my number concerning Pandora) was about total sales, not sales through last quarter. As a matter of fact, it's been pointed out to you a number of times you are using old numbers, and ignoring sales since. The announcement you're talking about involved Palm's 3Q 2010 results. 3Q 2010 ended almost 2 months ago. Half of another quarter has passed since then. A number of analysts have been predicting 1.5 million per quarter, even after the disappointing news from Palm. You can do the math.

    Neither of us "knows" what they've sold. However, your comment that the "The most generous estimate is 1.5 million actual WebOS sales, and it keeps dropping" is probably way off on the 1.5 million, if you're talking to date, and definitely off on the "keeps dropping" part.
  16. #56  
    Obviously, I misspoke in that sentence when I was clearly referring to sales each quarter since it is impossible for total sales to drop. So let's relinquish that semantic canard now, ok? My bad.

    But I repeat, my numbers are accurate. I know what they sold up until a few weeks ago, and it is around 1.4M based on Palm's reported figures. THEIR numbers. Even if it sold 150k since then....hell 300k since then...they are sitting at around 1.5-to 1.7M. Nowhere near 5 million. Well under what "a number of analysts" have said they will do for one quarter. Even if they magically moved all of the stock collecting dust, it would be less than that number.

    Either way, paltry, feeble numbers.
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    #57  
    Quote Originally Posted by VickMackey View Post
    i spoke with a friend last night, we were discussing phones, he has a droid, he told me he wouldn't consider getting a pre plus because of Palm's financial troubles and lack of commericial support. He also says he is dropping the droid for the VZW iphone when it drops.
    Tht is ONE example...anecdotal at best....when you can name a couple of hundred thousand people, then we are talking real information. pure hyperbole...as usual.
  18. #58  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Obviously, I misspoke in that sentence when I was clearly referring to sales each quarter since it is impossible for total sales to drop. So let's relinquish that semantic canard now, ok? My bad.

    But I repeat, my numbers are accurate. I know what they sold up until a few weeks ago, and it is around 1.4M based on Palm's reported figures. THEIR numbers. Even if it sold 150k since then....hell 300k since then...they are sitting at around 1.5-to 1.7M. Nowhere near 5 million. Well under what "a number of analysts" have said they will do for one quarter. Even if they magically moved all of the stock collecting dust, it would be less than that number.

    Either way, paltry, feeble numbers.
    This was the post that started the "numbers game":
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    ...
    I guess you haven't been reading the quarterly numbers. Last quarter, they sold less than 500K WebOS devices on all carriers, domestic and foreign, COMBINED. And that was with the Pre Plus being relatively new and having a mobile hotspot app. No such app on AT&T, no AT&T launch date, and no carrier willing to put significant effort any more into advertising these two phones means they will not be adding anywhere near "1.5 million new WebOS users".
    ...
    So, all semantics aside, your calculations do not factor in additional vendors, improved training for existing vendors, lower pricing, etc. You made a bold statement which is very different from the statements of others who have factored in the same numbers that you factored in.

    Bottom line, it's all opinion. To simply invalidate the opinion of others, and pretend it's all facts and/or a "given" is simply disingenuous.

    No doubt you predict failure for Palm. All one has to do is read your opinions to see that. However, to pretend that your opionions are some how "factual" is simply a fantasy.

    And since we're talking numbers and fantasies here, the Pandora number I gave, for it to be as far off as you say, and your 1.4 million to be correct with almost 1.8 million Pandora downloads, virtually 100% of Pre/Pixi owners would have to have downloaded Pandora (I suspect 90% at the top, probably closer to 80%) and roughly 20% of "repurchases" of existing Pre/Pixis to account for the greate number of downloads than purchases.

    Yep, a fantasy, for those that really want to convince themselves and others that Palm has "failed".
  19. #59  
    personally im looking forward to the evo 4g.

    i'd love to port webos to the evo tho.

    hopefully htc buys palm so that becomes a possibility
  20. #60  
    Psssst....Herb. The download count includes updates.

    Not a fantasy.
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