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  1.    #1  
    I JUST THOUGHT THIS IS A REALLY INTERESTING READ. I hope it can but the way things are looking, I'm starting to have doubts.

    http://www.informationweek.com/blog/...RSKHWATMY32JVN

    ARTICLE:
    Palm's stock has declined from a high of over $17 in October to just over $8.50 as of this morning. What's behind the halving of Palm's value? Well, tepid sales of its webOS smartphones are one factor. Its low stockpile of cash isn't helping either. Can the ailing company make it through the year without being absorbed by a competitor?

    Bay Area Internet SolutionsLet's rewind the clock one year. Palm announced webOS -- its fancy new smartphone operating system -- and the Palm Pre at CES 2009. Both were a big hit at the show, and showed promise for a company that almost bit the dust. It seemed that years of investing in itself and developing a new platform from the ground up might actually pay off. The Palm Pre went on sale exclusively from Sprint in early June. Sales were OK.

    In September, Palm announced the Pixi, a second webOS device for Sprint. It went on sale in November. Sales of that device have been less than stellar. Just last month, Palm announced some minor updates to webOS (which include new features, such as video capture) and a new distribution agreement with Verizon Wireless. It commenced sales of the Pre Plus and Pixi Plus with Verizon in January. There haven't been any confirmed numbers as to how well Palm's devices are selling via Verizon.

    Palm's most recent quarterly earnings weren't bad, and while the company appeared to sell a healthy number of devices, it didn't explicitly say how many Pres and Pixis it sold via Sprint.

    Just this week, Bank of America/Merrill Lynch analyst Vivek Arya revised his position on Palm, however, and the outlook isn't so good. He doesn't believe Palm's stock will do any better than hover around the $10 mark. He also lowered sales estimates from 1.1 million in Palm's third quarter to 900,000, and from 1.5 million in Palm's fourth quarter to 1.2 million. In other words, he thinks the company is going to sell half a million fewer phones than he previously thought.

    “Palm’s superior platform features have not translated into sufficient carrier support and consumer demand, and we are concerned the window of opportunity may be closing as Google’s Android ecosystem gains ground, RIM revitalizes its portfolio, iPhone increases its presence, and as Microsoft reboots its efforts with Windows Phone 7,” Arya wrote in a research note. “With only $130 million of net cash in an opex intensive space, Palm’s options may be limited in our view.”

    Wait, what? Palm has only $130 million in cash left? Can that be right? I have no idea what Palm's daily operational expenses are, but that seems like a *really* low number to me.

    As Arya points out, the mobile space is capital expenditure intensive. Palm has to spend money to make money. In particular, Palm has to get some much better hardware to the market as quickly as possible. Its Pre, Pre Plus and Pixi and Pixi Plus may be decent devices, but they are not lighting the market on fire as Android devices such as the Droid and Hero have stepped up the competition.

    Palm needs cash. Sales equal cash. Palm needs to increase sales. In my opinion, it is only going to do that by getting better phones to market. I can't imagine that Elevation Partners and other investment organizations are going to continue to dump millions of dollars into Palm to extend its lifeline.

    So the question remains: Can Palm survive 2010? I am growing increasingly doubtful.
  2. #2  
    Here we go again, last year it was the "Palm won't survive 2009" articles. Now even that Palm is expanding world wide and is now on Verzion and soon to be on at&t we still have to put up with this crap, yes Palm will be fine "Chicken Littles". Jump in trolls.
  3.    #3  
    I hope you're right but comon unless next palms device actually has been quality built people will be allot excited next time around. I mean I love webos but the way things stand at the moment I will have no probelm moving to Android even though I prefer WebOs due to built quality.
  4. #4  
    Here's the key quote from this poorly researched and incredibly premature article:
    There haven't been any confirmed numbers as to how well Palm's devices are selling via Verizon.
    So with no data whatsoever about how Palm is doing on the largest network in the Country they are ready to prognosticate?

    Totally irresponsible.
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by Tiddlekins View Post
    Here's the key quote from this poorly researched and incredibly premature article:


    So with no data whatsoever about how Palm is doing on the largest network in the Country they are ready to prognosticate?

    Totally irresponsible.
    While that is true and while we all know that Verizon is pushing the DROID allot more then Palms devices, do you really expect that the Pre is selling better on Verizon then Sprint. The Palm Pre is the BEST phone currently available on sprint while it IS NOT on Verizon. How many people do you think will keep their Pre or Pixi when the HTC Supersonic is released on Sprint. I KNOW I WON'T and I absolutelly love webos.

    PS In my area I still have NOT met a single person that owns a Palm Pre or Palm Pixi throught Verizon, while I know allot on sprint that have one.
  6.    #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    The reason why Palm doesn't have all day to turn this thing around is that the competition is ramping up like crazy. Every other platform competitor either has great marketshare, momentum, or financial backing: Nokia, Apple, RIM, Microsoft, and Google. There simply is no way for developers, carriers, retailers, or any other partner to pay much attention to a sixth place platform.

    And, with a couple hundred million in cash or whatever, there isn't any money to relaunch a new device or line.
    Totaly agree, I just hope PALM is able to releaase a Perfomance device very shortly or things are trully looking bad. Its really sad that the best operating system available for a mobile device doesn't have the opertunity in this market. I just hope Palm would start licencing WebOS to other companies. It would be awsome to have a HTC device running WebOS.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by dkotoric1 View Post
    While that is true and while we all know that Verizon is pushing the DROID allot more then Palms devices, do you really expect that the Pre is selling better on Verizon then Sprint. The Palm Pre is the BEST phone currently available on sprint while it IS NOT on Verizon.
    ...
    I suppose that's where we disagree, because I think that the Pre Plus is a much better phone than the Droid. They have the same processor, but the Pre Plus has twice as much memory (RAM) and it runs WebOS which I feel offers a far superior OS and user experience at the moment.
  8. #8  
    It's depressing. I was so impressed with the Pre the first time I got to use it I bought Palm stock. That turned out to be a bad decision in hindsight, I sold some this morning and I'm looking to sell more on markets pops. I still think WebOS is one of the top 2 or 3 smart phone platforms out there, but that doesn't always matter. Its not just bad luck, Palm made plenty of mistakes. They created a lot of buzz at CES last year, but the time it took to get the phone out lost a lot of that. They should have been able to establish the Pre as a flagship phone on Sprint, they didn't. They released on Verizon but not until after the Droid was established as the premier smart phone there. I think you have to say the Pixi has sadly been a failure, especially when you consider Palms lack of resources and they could have focused on a Pre 2 instead. As much as people like the form factor, not many people seem to be going for a smart phone lite. Especially when they weren't able to hold the line with Pre pricing at 199. If Palm indeed only has 130 million in cash left, then that is scary. They will either need to raise cash somehow, or put the company up for sale soon. I happen to think a sale to a company could be the best for all involved. A company such as HP or Dell isn't seeing the PC growth they used too. They don't have a mobile presence, so Palm would probably largely be left in tact, but with a lot more resources. Either way, I'm pulling for Palm.
  9. jkaczy's Avatar
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    #9  
    I think that it needs to have a game changer to add to the Sprint network in June. All the people of Sprint will have the option to get a new phone as part of the Sprint Premier Program. My suggestion is that Sprint has already stated that they will have 4G phones available this year. It would be great if is was a Palm Pre Plus 4G. That would blow Google & the IPhone away. The platform is the best in town but is getting lost in the shuffle. There are a lot of Palm fanatics that will sustain the platform but they need converts and that needs the support of the stores which Sprint has given them.
  10.    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by Tiddlekins View Post
    I suppose that's where we disagree, because I think that the Pre Plus is a much better phone than the Droid. They have the same processor, but the Pre Plus has twice as much memory (RAM) and it runs WebOS which I feel offers a far superior OS and user experience at the moment.
    While I have to agree that WebOS is a much better Operating system then Android, I take it that you have not felt a Droid in your hand. I mean the phone feels rock solit and its also a slider while it has a bigger screen as well. Obviously we know that sales of the Droid are fenominal, and obviously the rest of the world agrees with me as the Droid has actually won the gadget of the year on Engadget. It even beat the iphone 3gs which has such a large userbase.
  11. #11  
    In Europe Palm is somewhat unknown. Therefore if they had more focus on Europe and utilise the "newness" factor they'd have a better chance.
    In US Palm drowns, because everybody knows who Palm is, but not really in Europe.
    Here it's Symbian or Windows Mobile country, therefore they could wipe the floor, and grow overhere.
  12. #12  
    1.4 needs to drop so the we don't get a bunch of post like these for the next week.
  13. urkel's Avatar
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    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by Tiddlekins View Post
    I suppose that's where we disagree, because I think that the Pre Plus is a much better phone than the Droid. They have the same processor, but the Pre Plus has twice as much memory (RAM) and it runs WebOS which I feel offers a far superior OS and user experience at the moment.
    "Better" rarely translates to being "More Popular"

    You are trying to rationalize why the Pre "should" be popular, but with 7mo under its belt (and 12mo of being in public consciousness) then it simply isn't. "Will Palm survive?" is a silly premise that many people on both camps seem to be wasting time debating because the real questioin is "Will Palm Thrive?" And so far they have given very little reason to think they will.

    We live in a bubble on PreCentral because out here a good number of people are evangelizing the greatness of the Pre and WebOS. But in the real world then is anyone really asking or listening? Are Pre owners as excited as Android/iPhone owners that they're going to get their friends to buy one, or are they "satisfied enough" with the Pre but not really going to recommend it due to shoddy hardware, buggy operation and slow updates?

    I'm "satisfied" with my Pre but I wouldn't recommend it to anyone because of the inconsistencies of the customer experience. I get it, it's a 1.0 product and it will have bugs, but if my friends/family had to put up with the crap that I've dealt with then they'd chuck it out a window.
  14. #14  
    The Pixi was a bad idea? Whoda thunk it?

    Palm's problem is they're trying to ramp up too fast. Too many carriers too fast. Costs a boatload of cash initially. Another handset too quickly when the Pre should have been their priority.

    Combine that with less than stellar sales that actually decreased from the initial launch quarter...all in the name of focusing on adding carriers, but not focusing on their bread n butter..sprint. (well along with the horrible ads)

    IMO, they should've focused on Sprint for longer which i've said before. I know this flies in the face of everyone who thinks Sprint was their big mistake but Palm would've had longer to improve the hardware & OS while keeping costs down. It's not like the apps would've been any worse than now. After all, 70% or more of sales came or come from Sprint. I'd hate to see the costs they incurred for that other 30% of revenue that involved foreign carriers.

    Google was able to do similar with tmobile with the G1. Apple had AT&T. Palm needed to turn profitable first, not try to ramp up too quick and attempt to sale millions from the getgo.
  15. #15  
    Palm is an underdog fighting an uphill battle that's getting steeper every day.

    WebOS is the best experience I've ever had on a mobile device, and it's not going to mean a hill of beans.

    They really whiffed with the hardware, and now, if this cash position is true, they are in not a good position.

    I wonder how long Elevation Partners is going to hang around as the stock gets closer to the $7.50 range...
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by jkaczy View Post
    I think that it needs to have a game changer to add to the Sprint network in June. All the people of Sprint will have the option to get a new phone as part of the Sprint Premier Program. My suggestion is that Sprint has already stated that they will have 4G phones available this year. It would be great if is was a Palm Pre Plus 4G. That would blow Google & the IPhone away. The platform is the best in town but is getting lost in the shuffle. There are a lot of Palm fanatics that will sustain the platform but they need converts and that needs the support of the stores which Sprint has given them.

    You also have to understand in order for a Palm Pre Plus 4g to be Released Verizon would have to be able to support the 4G network which they don't Sprint is the only 4G Competitor in the States right now!
  17. slash x's Avatar
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    #17  
    "Gaaawww"

    Bought my Palm stock at 15+

    As of today, It's at 8.31

    I think I'm going to throw in the towel --- Can't wait for this trend to change much more !

    I really wanted a better outcome

    p.s. (I also wanted a pony when I was 5 yrs old, but that didn't work out either)
  18. #18  
    i hate to say it but i think its to little to late for palm with the hardware the competitors have them beat not that the consumer even looks at hardware all they think is how much space and what apps does it have and the pre doesnt have either i had 2 friends who know little about smart phones and were looking to upgrade one told me he loves how webos multi tasks but they didnt have any good apps and went out and got an iphone even tho i told him he would get raped in carrier charges amd he would never get flash he said he would pay because we wanted the apps over multi tasking he upgraded from a treo 680 my other friend also was considering either and iphone or the nexus one and said he liked the user exp of webos but they didnt have any good apps and he read that exchange sucked on the pre he still hasnt upgraded as far as i know but i doubt that he will come to the pre hes coming from a blackberry.The fact of it is for the average joe hardware and what kind of network doesnt matter all they care about is price of the phone and what it does the bling factor Palm has had its sdk locked up for way to long and delvelopers really dont care about it anymore why should they when the can make apps for droid,iphone and make money now instead of waitinng for palm to open up it all comes down to the demo at the store and the pre demo at the store doesnt have that wow effect yeah it multi tasks other then that whats to do that others dont
  19. #19  
    As long as palm is around Ill be happy with my smartphone. I am hopeful for the platform, I just think they need more attention paid to ads and such. Between crackberry, crapple and 'droid ads I see 0 webOS ads. Its the best OS I have used and there is zero marketing going for it.
    Misc electronic organizers > Cassiopeia > palm pilot III > Palm Pilot VII/Zire 21 > Treo 90 > Treo 650 > PPC6700 > Treo 755p > PPC6800 > Palm Pro > Palm Pre
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by o0otoxic View Post
    i hate to say it but i think its to little to late for palm with the hardware the competitors have them beat not that the consumer even looks at hardware all they think is how much space and what apps does it have and the pre doesnt have either i had 2 friends who know little about smart phones and were looking to upgrade one told me he loves how webos multi tasks but they didnt have any good apps and went out and got an iphone even tho i told him he would get raped in carrier charges amd he would never get flash he said he would pay because we wanted the apps over multi tasking he upgraded from a treo 680 my other friend also was considering either and iphone or the nexus one and said he liked the user exp of webos but they didnt have any good apps and he read that exchange sucked on the pre he still hasnt upgraded as far as i know but i doubt that he will come to the pre hes coming from a blackberry.The fact of it is for the average joe hardware and what kind of network doesnt matter all they care about is price of the phone and what it does the bling factor Palm has had its sdk locked up for way to long and delvelopers really dont care about it anymore why should they when the can make apps for droid,iphone and make money now instead of waitinng for palm to open up it all comes down to the demo at the store and the pre demo at the store doesnt have that wow effect yeah it multi tasks other then that whats to do that others dont
    That probably did contain something interesting. But as soon as I see writing like this - without even the basics of punctuation and with everything rolling into one long paragraph, I instantly skip over it.

    Seriously guys, what's with all the posting that looks like it was written by a 7 year old? It's almost as bad as reading posts by people that don't know how to write anything not formatted as a text message (I resisted the urge to shorten that).

    I've also never encountered any other forum that's so stuffed to the gills with moaning, whining, I-Want-It-And-I-Want-It-Right-Now-This-Second feet stamping idiots. For Christ's sake, give it a rest.
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