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  1. #101  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post

    Now here is the part that must have evaded you:

    Also contributing to higher channel inventories were lower than expected sellthrough volumes at Sprint. We still have work to do in increasing awareness of the Palm brand and webOS products in the market, and we are taking aggressive steps to improve our messaging efforts. We’ve dramatically
    ramped our TV advertising and on-line campaign for Pixi throughout the
    holiday season, our recent PRPRPR $activity$ $has$ $been$ $outstanding$, $and$ $as$ $Jon$
    mentioned, we’ll be launching a new, broad-based Palm marketing campaign
    later this quarter. We think these combined efforts, among others, will help
    drive increasing momentum as the year unfolds.


    So the Pre has been selling worse than expected and they are talking about how much they ramped up their ad campaign during the holiday season. As I said, if this is "it" then they better hope the Messiah arrives before 2012.

    Nope, didn't evade me. thats what i was refering to when i wrote about sprint not having expected sales, which seems to have evaded you. that may be my fault as much as yours, just saying, sometimes people miscommunicate, and perhaps some other things aren't getting accross.

    f you are interested in a companies profitability, net profit, is a nice place to start. for example, the fact that the net loss has decreased from august through November, decreased meaning less negative. in other words, they are less in the red Now than they were earlier in the year. positive change. this means that the november quarter is actually better net profit wise than the august quarter was.

    as for the statement you quote, they go on to say that they are still on target.

    the same numbers you used, they gave, and then used those numbers to make a case, to which investors have responded, not by totally dumping palm because they think they are "toast" but selling some stock, not all, some.

    I think many of those investors sold some of the stock, and not all of it, because they see the numbers you used, taken from palm, and see a picture that is not "toast" but profit. just, not as much as they hoped, why, fewer sales, but, and its a big but, not enough to make them "toast"

    so in the end it is still fundamentally about the number of phones (to be) sold, and we don't know how many that is.

    I'm inclined to believe that it will be "enough" and they can avoid being "toast" because there net profit is increasing (net loss decreasing) and verizon is all over advertising the pre, even if it is to moms.
    Last edited by windzilla; 02/10/2010 at 04:21 PM.
    There are four lights.
  2. #102  
    Quote Originally Posted by windzilla View Post
    so in the end it is still fundamentally about the number of phones (to be) sold, and we don't know how many that is.

    I'm inclined to believe that it will be "enough" and they can avoid being "toast" because there net profit is increasing (net loss decreasing) and verizon is all over advertising the pre, even if it is to moms.
    I looked online: Palm shares off as Sprint customer demand tepid: Thomson Reuters Business News: GOOG - MSN Money

    Don't confuse net profit with "decreased net loss." Going from losing $130 million to $83 million is significant but that is still huge. And that is before the ad campaign. If they lose $80 million a quarter now that they are out of the box, we are talking about 5-6 quarters before the fire is out. Add into the fact that this number is significantly above the loss number that Palm projected for themselves and that isn't good.

    But smartphone sellthrough units -- which reflect how many phones actually end up in consumers' hands -- totaled only 573,000, which was down 4 percent from the year-earlier period and 29 percent lower than the previous three months.

    This is not good news - they are losing more market share with the new phones. Yes, there is more potential on the Verizon network but have any of you actually seen people even buying this phone? Honestly, I have walked into a Verizon store at least five times in the past 10 days and I didn't even see anyone using the Pre demos or the Pixis. The ad campaign is invisible yet Palm announced in mid-DECEMBER that it was starting a marketing blitz...

    WHile you can tell me about your "confidence" you still haven't pointed to one thing I can rest my hat on to say that Palm is really going in the right direction. Fact is that with a market share dropping towards 1% there is less incentive for anyone to develop apps around WebOS and they will get squeezed out by the big four - iPhone, Android, Blackberry and Windows Mobile 7. Joke all you want about the last one but their adoption numbers still dwarf Palms, even without a significant update in years... and get ready for the HD2.
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    #103  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post

    I agree wholeheartedly with you... assuming the year is 2006!!!!
    oops. here is the link for their latest annual report

    http://files.shareholder.com/downloa...Y09Results.pdf
  4. #104  
    Quote Originally Posted by windzilla View Post
    ...
    as for the statement you quote, they go on to say that they are still on target.
    ...
    He (and others like him) continue, and will continue, to ignore this one. Why? you may ask... Because ignoring that would lend little credence to their mantra of "Palm is toast", and they prefer that mantra over "Would you like to supersize that order today?"
  5. #105  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    He (and others like him) continue, and will continue, to ignore this one. Why? you may ask... Because ignoring that would lend little credence to their mantra of "Palm is toast", and they prefer that mantra over "Would you like to supersize that order today?"
    And you continue to embarrass yourself publicly. Ignore what? A pandering executive saying to investors they expect to be profitable without providing anything of substance to back it up? Show me why.

    Show me one reason why Palm isn't toast and I'll be happy. It's what I hoped to hear other than "we believe them because they said so." The loss was expected to lower but it was still much higher than anticipated, which is why the stock dropped almost 8% immediately afterward. There is also no answer as to what the plan is for the rest of the year as to how they will be profitable. We're waiting...
  6. gbp
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    #106  
    They will be selling on ATT in three more months. Which means another half a million plus sales to the bottom line. Not bad. They get initial sales momentum before slowing down. Introducing a new handset would bring in more sales. They will do that in the second half of the year ( PALM speak).
  7. #107  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    And you continue to embarrass yourself publicly. Ignore what? A pandering executive saying to investors they expect to be profitable without providing anything of substance to back it up? Show me why.
    You're displaying your ignorance. An executive cannot tell investors that they are "on target" when they are, in fact, not.

    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    Show me one reason why Palm isn't toast and I'll be happy. It's what I hoped to hear other than "we believe them because they said so." The loss was expected to lower but it was still much higher than anticipated, which is why the stock dropped almost 8% immediately afterward. There is also no answer as to what the plan is for the rest of the year as to how they will be profitable. We're waiting...
    Frankly, I don't care if you're happy or not. I'll just keep pointing out that you, and those like you, keep saying it, and keep saying it, and keep saying it. I suppose if you spout it long enough, it'll eventually be true. The real question is when is this toasting going to happen? I suspect you don't have a clue, just that it is...
    Last edited by hparsons; 02/11/2010 at 04:37 AM. Reason: Fix quote ag
  8. #108  
    @ iamsedated and untidyguy

    even if you do have some valid points..

    1. palm will exist for another 10 years whether it continues to lose money and have poor sales.

    2. you are both annoying trolls.
  9. #109  
    Quote Originally Posted by badjokes View Post
    @ iamsedated and untidyguy
    even if you do have some valid points..
    1. palm will exist for another 10 years whether it continues to lose money and have poor sales.
    2. you are both annoying trolls.
    Keep repeating that to yourself as many times as you need to if it helps make you feel better. It's probably more effective with earplugs and a good case of beer.

    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Frankly, I don't care if you're happy or not. I'll just keep pointing out that you, and those like you, keep saying it, and keep saying it, and keep saying it. I suppose if you spout it long enough, it'll eventually be true. The real question is when is this toasting going to happen? I suspect you don't have a clue, just that it is...
    Yes, you keep pointing out how you're a master at missing the obvious. Unless Palm can figure out a way to stop the bleeding, it will run out of cash. That's unfortunately too difficult for you to comprehend and the other poster to handle. I'm far from the only one here entertained (and annoyed) by your absurd arguments.

    So now you're arguing that it's all talk until someone can predict the exact moment of Palm's demise. Who cares? As of right now it is inevitable that well before the expiration of a new 2 year contract for a Pre Plus with Verizon, some significant event will occur at Palm that will either be their winding up of events or takeover by a purchaser who will do something else with it.

    Like others, I hope that we'll finally hear some optimistic words of substance from Palm. The longer they blab about meeting their internal numbers and not provide a realistic road map towards survival, the more skeptical many remain about their viability until the time when the Messiah arrives in 2012 to save them.
  10. gbp
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    #110  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    The longer they blab about meeting their internal numbers and not provide a realistic road map towards survival, the more skeptical many remain about their viability until the time when the Messiah arrives in 2012 to save them.
    Fine . You think its toast, and most here think it is just a small player that is coming back after near bankruptcy. And you seem to have issues with PALM's guidance. Fine sell your PALM stock and return your Pre (if you have one). The forum will be here in 2011 and so are the members.

    I am not being sarcastic , but can you elaborate the PALM toast thing? Is it a slow death ? when do they declare bankruptcy ? When does the stock reach $1.0 range. I would love to hear your side of the story. Cuz I will be buying there stock. And if you can tell the timing, I will save some greenbacks.
  11. gbp
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    #111  
    and this just came in StreetInsider.com - Citi Upgrades Palm (PALM) to Hold

    Guess the analysts are fine too , except the our complaining friends in this thread.
  12. #112  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    I agree wholeheartedly with you... assuming the year is 2006!!!!
    lol, better late thannever!, and "trending right" is never late! what are you thinking? Im living in 2010!, I enjoy a phone of 2010, who cares what 2006 was?
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    But smartphone sellthrough units -- which reflect how many phones actually end up in consumers' hands -- totaled only 573,000, which was down 4 percent from the year-earlier period and 29 percent lower than the previous three months.

    This is not good news - they are losing more market share with the new phones.
    They had more phones on more network a year earlier!
    and they sold 570k WebOS phones in a quarter! and 800k in previous quarter! all on sprint!
  13. #113  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    I am not being sarcastic , but can you elaborate the PALM toast thing? Is it a slow death ? when do they declare bankruptcy ? When does the stock reach $1.0 range. I would love to hear your side of the story. Cuz I will be buying there stock. And if you can tell the timing, I will save some greenbacks.
    Jane has a lemonade stand and $16 dollars in her bank account. Every month Jane spends one more dollar to run the lemonade stand than she makes. She now has $12 left. If this trend continues, how many more months can Jane run the lemonade stand?
  14. #114  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    jane has a lemonade stand and $16 dollars in her bank account. Every month jane spends one more dollar to run the lemonade stand than she makes. She now has $12 left. If this trend continues, how many more months can jane run the lemonade stand?
    lmao! :d
  15. gbp
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    #115  
    Quote Originally Posted by iamsedated View Post
    Jane has a lemonade stand and $16 dollars in her bank account. Every month Jane spends one more dollar to run the lemonade stand than she makes. She now has $12 left. If this trend continues, how many more months can Jane run the lemonade stand?
    Okay I give up, you look at the $12 , but what if
    • Jane started selling a new lemonade flavor that folks started to like and are buying.
    • Jane introduced a second lemonade which is a light version of the first one.
    • Jane improved the taste of the first lemonade by adding ingredients based on customer feedback.
    • Jane has more good ingredients to make more flavors based on the same lemon juice.
    • Jane is backed up by few rich folks who are friends with her and are willing to support her during the tough times.
    • Jane's lemonade stand is attracting the banks who think she can make good money.They support Jane by buying Jane's Lemonade stocks in the secondary stock option.


    Now there is this set of greedy and lazy rich folks with money who think it might be good to gamble on Jane's lemonade. They buy some of Jane's Lemonade stock. They have no clue about Sugar, Water , Lemon , Stand, Glasses ,Ice and other flavors. Every quarter they speculate about how many glasses of lemonade Jane is selling on a monthly basis . And every month they tell Jane on how to run her business. These greedy guys want Jane to start selling the lemonade in every town. They want her to compete with the BerryJuice Company and Apple Cider Company.Jane says thank you but no thanks.They get mad and take their money back. Which will trigger few of the bank folks to take their money back. But there are still few big banks and Jane's friends to assure Jane with their money. They tell Jane to keep working on the Lemonade.

    About three years later Jane's lemonade became famous. Folks are buying it. Many folks who used to drink Berry juice and Apple cider now prefer Jane's lemonade though Berry Juice and Apple Cider are selling well too. Because there are plenty of folks who never tasted Jane's Lemonade , Berry juice or Apple Cider now want to buy them.
  16. #116  
    It's not getting better, it's getting worse - and this with the holiday sales and overseas GSM included (Link):


    I guess as the legacy PalmOS products are pulled off the market, the WebOS products are not making up the downturn. At the rate this is going, Palm is going to be passed standing still by yet-another-OS when Windows Mobile 7 comes out later this year.
  17. #117  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    About three years later Jane's lemonade became famous. Folks are buying it. Many folks who used to drink Berry juice and Apple cider now prefer Jane's lemonade though Berry Juice and Apple Cider are selling well too. Because there are plenty of folks who never tasted Jane's Lemonade , Berry juice or Apple Cider now want to buy them.
    If Berry Juice or Apple Cider want to buy Jane out, that could mess up the lemonade (mainly because they want to add their own ingredients). A lot of Jane's friends, who told her to hang in there, would probably be upset, but it seems money talks.

    Kupe- I didn't realize Google was doing so well with their devices. I thought for sure Palm would be at par with Microsoft.....at least. Palm has a lot of work ahead of them.
  18. gbp
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    #118  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    It's not getting better, it's getting worse - and this with the holiday sales and overseas GSM included

    I guess as the legacy PalmOS products are pulled off the market, the WebOS products are not making up the downturn. At the rate this is going, Palm is going to be passed standing still by yet-another-OS when Windows Mobile 7 comes out later this year.
    Not to throw water on the report , but there a bit of sampling problem here. If you keep monitoring a million folks in a total of 220 million wireless subscribers in the United states , you are touching .5 % and predicting numbers. These deviation to the mean on these numbers might not be much for APPLE and RIMM (because of larger folks in the sampling have these phones) but it will have negative effect on smaller players like PALM.

    I am not saying comscore is totally flawed, but you have to ask questions about the sampling to get accurate figures.

    "Central to most comScore services is the comScore panel, the largest continuously measured consumer panel of its kind. The comScore panel utilizes a sophisticated methodology, which is designed to accurately measure people and their behavior in the digital environment. This massive information network delivers one of the highest quality, most comprehensive views of Internet browsing, buying and other activity, in both digital and offline environments. The comScore panel includes approximately 2 million people under continuous measurement on a global basis, with 1 million residents in the U.S., and the remaining 1 million distributed across more than 170 countries."
  19. #119  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    Not to throw water on the report , but there a bit of sampling problem here. If you keep monitoring a million folks in a total of 220 million wireless subscribers in the United states , you are touching .5 % and predicting numbers. These deviation to the mean on these numbers might not be much for APPLE and RIMM (because of larger folks in the sampling have these phones) but it will have negative effect on smaller players like PALM.
    Those numbers are orders of magnitude higher than most sampling services (i.e. JD Power and the like) yet they all manage to hit the numbers pretty close to the actuals.

    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    I am not saying comscore is totally flawed, but you have to ask questions about the sampling to get accurate figures.
    It's all about the sampling - that's why these guys are so well respected in the industry. The real weakness in their case is the time span. It's hard to make any major conclusions or predictions by comparing just 2 quarters, but it is telling that Palm actually regressed in market share when Rubenstein tried to convince us there was a big market in the "fat middle" (whatever that is) for Palm to grow into.
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    #120  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    Okay I give up, you look at the $12 , but what if
    • Jane started selling a new lemonade flavor that folks started to like and are buying.
    • Jane introduced a second lemonade which is a light version of the first one.
    • Jane improved the taste of the first lemonade by adding ingredients based on customer feedback.
    • Jane has more good ingredients to make more flavors based on the same lemon juice.
    • Jane is backed up by few rich folks who are friends with her and are willing to support her during the tough times.
    • Jane's lemonade stand is attracting the banks who think she can make good money.They support Jane by buying Jane's Lemonade stocks in the secondary stock option.
    Exactly. What if ....
    We can all create "what if" scenarios but it's all fantasy because it's based on nothing but wishful thinking and a creative imagination. This is about following actual trends in the market.

    The Pre, Sprint and even poor little Jane are under appreciated by the market and unfortunately there is nothing in the near or foreseeable future that is going to change that. It sucks for them, but that's reality.

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