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  1. SharonW's Avatar
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       #1  
    Gee, I made the same comments about Palm and Nokia in another thread yesterday. Too funny.

    As more wireless customers flock to smart phones, companies like Apple, Research In Motion, Motorola and Palm have the advantage over current cell phone giants such as Nokia and Sony Ericsson, according to a new report from Credit Suisse.

    In a study issued Tuesday morning entitled "Smart phones ... smarter investments," the broker predicted strong growth in the smart-phone category, which includes popular devices such as the iPhone, BlackBerry and Palm Pre.

    "We believe smart phones represent one of the most attractive secular trends in technology, given our projected long-term compound annual growth rate of 18%," lead wireless analyst Kulbinder Garcha wrote in his report.

    But the growth will not benefit all players equally. Garcha downgraded Nokia (NOK) on worries that the world's largest maker of wireless handsets will not be able to hold onto its market share, given challenges with the company's software platform and strong competition from new players.

    ... Motorola was a surprise pick, given the company's troubles in its handset business. But Garcha expects Motorola will be able to turn around its performance with improvements in the business - which includes a new line of smart phones based on Google's Android operating system.

    The first of those devices are expected to be unveiled next week at an event in San Francisco.

    "The company has clearly articulated a multiple chipset sourcing strategy and an OS strategy centered on Android," Garcha wrote. "While a focused product strategy, coupled with the company's distribution and brand should allow Motorola to increase smart-phone share from 2% in 2008, questions remain on Motorola's implementation of Android, as well as the company's services strategy."

    Palm remains at an outperform rating. The company launched its new Pre smart phone earlier this year with a new operating system called webOS. Garcha believes the system will become a successful platform for future models, but noted that the company's product cycle "is still in the early innings."

    Losers

    Credit Suisse said Nokia is likely to retain a dominant position in the cell phone market in the coming years, but the company risks losing market share.

    In particular, the broker pointed to challenges with Ovi -- Nokia's mobile Internet service -- as well as the company's Symbian operating system, which it said "still lacks the quality or the look and feel of several competing devices."

    For Sony Ericsson, Garcha said that because of the company's "unfocussed software and product strategy, weakening brand and undifferentiated services offering," its smart-phone market share will likely remain in the 1% range next year.

    RIM, Motorola And Palm Favored For Smart Phones -Report - WSJ.com
  2. Libb's Avatar
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    I think anybody that says buy Motorola at this point is a lunatic - even with them transitioning to Android, they have lost massive amounts of brand equity with their constant rehashing of the same awful phones. Plus, merely having Android won't be worth much soon - HTC already has the market cornered on stock Android devices, and their custom Sense UI already looks like it's going to be pretty successful when the Hero makes the leap onto Sprint later this year.

    That said, totally agree that Nokia and SE are toast at this point unless they can make some major overhauls, and based on their long-term OS roadmaps (Nokia with Maemo, SE with Android), I don't think they'll be able to differentiate enough to stem the tide.
  3. SharonW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Libb View Post
    I think anybody that says buy Motorola at this point is a lunatic - even with them transitioning to Android, they have lost massive amounts of brand equity with their constant rehashing of the same awful phones. Plus, merely having Android won't be worth much soon - HTC already has the market cornered on stock Android devices, and their custom Sense UI already looks like it's going to be pretty successful when the Hero makes the leap onto Sprint later this year.

    That said, totally agree that Nokia and SE are toast at this point unless they can make some major overhauls, and based on their long-term OS roadmaps (Nokia with Maemo, SE with Android), I don't think they'll be able to differentiate enough to stem the tide.
    I'm waiting to pass assessment on MOT until I actually "see" their Android products...only about a week away. Something tells me this analyst had such a chance. It's like I said in yesterday's post, MOT needs a kick-**** Google phone to save itself. If so, its stock is so cheap one could do well to consider it. I do know they totally dismantled their cell phone department and dedicated their sharpest minds to developing their Android line and only their Android line. It's do or die for them.

    However, my real point was (yesterday) and is today that Palm has cemented itself in the supreme trinity of smart phones (Apple, RIM, Palm), the very sweet spot in the only new cycle, high-growth products. It is me thumbing my nose at all the naysayers and the "whoa-is-me-ers Palm's not doing anything right" that have infested this board of late.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by SharonW View Post
    ...
    It is me thumbing my nose at all the naysayers and the "whoa-is-me-ers Palm's not doing anything right" that have infested this board of late.
    Here's my spin on that particular problem. I think Palm is (currently) is an unusual position. They have completely changed not only their product line, but the makeup of their company. Thus many of their "legacy customers" are upset (not all, I fit in that category). They pose a serious threat to the iPhone, thus the iPhanboys are upset. It even appears that the ease of development among some developers has got a few members of that group set on a search and destory mission.

    And the pesky little devil keeps on selling, and Palm keeps on expanding their market share.
  5. SharonW's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Here's my spin on that particular problem. I think Palm is (currently) is an unusual position. They have completely changed not only their product line, but the makeup of their company. Thus many of their "legacy customers" are upset (not all, I fit in that category). They pose a serious threat to the iPhone, thus the iPhanboys are upset. It even appears that the ease of development among some developers has got a few members of that group set on a search and destory mission.

    And the pesky little devil keeps on selling, and Palm keeps on expanding their market share.
    Agreed. They're keeping their eyes down and their noses to the grindstone producing and producing instead of loudly cockadoodling and strutting.

    And I think the group we see here also includes (and some people will roll their eyes at me for saying this again) those who are either shorting Palm's stock or own Apple stock and think there can't be two winners.

    BTW, I also think there is another group type consisting of engineering and coding geek types that are too nit picky due to the nature of their work to be considered rational, normal people. Measuring tensile strength on cardboard tubes for toilet paper being machine rolled at 50 mph will do that to ya.

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