Pre sales estimated by Pandora downloads

sixerztres · 03:09 PM

I've been recording the number of Pandora downloads on a given day (noon until noon the next day) for approximately the last month. Since it's a fairly ubiquitous app, it can serve as an indicator for Pre sales, but the caveats below should be considered.

The average is 2825 Pandora downloads per day over the time period I recorded.

Some things to consider:

Not everybody that buys a Pre downloads Pandora.

Not everybody who downloads Pandora does so on the day he buys a Pre. There's probably a decreasing Poisson function that approximates the probability of downloading Pandora after buying a Pre.

People who replace their phones and redownload Pandora are counted again.

Some observations:

Pandora downloads tend to spike during the weekend, specifically Friday/Saturday.

Downloads were highest in the first 2 weeks of August, when they averaged 3054 downloads per day. Since then, downloads have slightly decreased to 2634 downloads per day.

I'm not going to speculate as to what the ratio of Pandora downloads to Pre sales is, but I think it's safe to say Palm is selling at the very least 2500 per day.

number1pete · 08/27/2009, 02:53 PM

nice post dude.

I wish we had this since the day of launch.

if we assume 2500 per day then that puts them at 228,000 Pres.

I hope they are doing better than that.

Thanks again.

**pogeypre** · 08/27/2009, 02:56 PM

It's a tricky business tracking hardware by software downloads. There are a great many variables, including:

* Are update downloads counted?
* How many downloads are first time users?

It is quite possible that your number is close, though saying that there are at least 2500 downloads per day is like saying my Sister-in-Law voted on American Idol at least once last year.

Good post!

ruggs · 08/27/2009, 03:04 PM

pandora doesn't work in Canada so your numbers might get skewed a bit...

sixerztres · 08/27/2009, 03:09 PM

Guess Canadian sales won't be as visible when tracking Pandora. There will probably still be a spike, as people may not know it doesn't work.

chiliu78 · 08/27/2009, 03:12 PM

Can't we just track it by the number of times we tried to delete the "Nascar" app from the phone? That should spike it to at least 5 Million units at this point. ;-)

DJeremyC · 08/27/2009, 03:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by number1pete

nice post dude.

I wish we had this since the day of launch.

if we assume 2500 per day then that puts them at 228,000 Pres.

I hope they are doing better than that.

Thanks again.

2500 a day is probably way lower then what is was the first month.
It probably would be safe to assume that is you included the downloads from June you would average about 5000+ a day.

snrfn93 · 09/01/2009, 07:26 PM

Out of curiosity, from where are you pulling these numbers?

plee3 · 09/01/2009, 08:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by snrfn93

Out of curiosity, from where are you pulling these numbers?

If you check the App Catalog for Pandora, it lists the number of downloads. As of this moment, it lists 330,386 downloads.

SharonW · 09/01/2009, 11:46 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by plee3

If you check the App Catalog for Pandora, it lists the number of downloads. As of this moment, it lists 330,386 downloads.

Hmm, then it seems to me that give or take the random number of re-downloads (although we don't know if they count, i.e. if you exchanged your Pre due to defect and your backup in cloud was re-downloaded to your new Pre, do the apps get counted again?), it would seem safe to say the Pre has sold a minimum of 300,000 for the quarter given this is Sept. 1st. and Pandora launched with the phone.

Interesting statistics to play with.

sixerztres · 09/02/2009, 12:18 AM

Not exactly, when Pandora updated to a newer version, updating the app counted as another download. I think it happened at around 70k downloads.

08/27/2009, 02:48 PM	#1 (permalink)
sixerztres Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 13 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 0 Thanked 4 Times in 2 Posts	Pre sales estimated by Pandora downloads I've been recording the number of Pandora downloads on a given day (noon until noon the next day) for approximately the last month. Since it's a fairly ubiquitous app, it can serve as an indicator for Pre sales, but the caveats below should be considered. The average is 2825 Pandora downloads per day over the time period I recorded. Some things to consider: Not everybody that buys a Pre downloads Pandora. Not everybody who downloads Pandora does so on the day he buys a Pre. There's probably a decreasing Poisson function that approximates the probability of downloading Pandora after buying a Pre. People who replace their phones and redownload Pandora are counted again. Some observations: Pandora downloads tend to spike during the weekend, specifically Friday/Saturday. Downloads were highest in the first 2 weeks of August, when they averaged 3054 downloads per day. Since then, downloads have slightly decreased to 2634 downloads per day. I'm not going to speculate as to what the ratio of Pandora downloads to Pre sales is, but I think it's safe to say Palm is selling at the very least 2500 per day. Last edited by sixerztres; 08/27/2009 at 03:09 PM.
	Liked by Thanked by bipoler, NeoteriX, number1pete

08/27/2009, 02:53 PM	#2 (permalink)
number1pete Developer Join Date: Jul 2009 Location: Katy, Texas Posts: 584 Likes Received: 7 Thanks: 52 Thanked 287 Times in 93 Posts	nice post dude. I wish we had this since the day of launch. if we assume 2500 per day then that puts them at 228,000 Pres. I hope they are doing better than that. Thanks again.
	Liked by

08/27/2009, 02:56 PM	#3 (permalink)
pogeypre Man of Steelerator (Super Mod) Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 4,390 Likes Received: 244 Thanks: 1,769 Thanked 2,612 Times in 1,563 Posts	It's a tricky business tracking hardware by software downloads. There are a great many variables, including: * Are update downloads counted? * How many downloads are first time users? It is quite possible that your number is close, though saying that there are at least 2500 downloads per day is like saying my Sister-in-Law voted on American Idol at least once last year. Good post!
	Liked by

08/27/2009, 03:04 PM	#4 (permalink)
ruggs Member Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 13 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 0 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	pandora doesn't work in Canada so your numbers might get skewed a bit...
	Liked by

08/27/2009, 03:09 PM	#5 (permalink)
sixerztres Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 13 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 0 Thanked 4 Times in 2 Posts	Guess Canadian sales won't be as visible when tracking Pandora. There will probably still be a spike, as people may not know it doesn't work.
	Liked by

08/27/2009, 03:12 PM	#6 (permalink)
chiliu78 Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 316 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 28 Thanked 91 Times in 30 Posts	Can't we just track it by the number of times we tried to delete the "Nascar" app from the phone? That should spike it to at least 5 Million units at this point. ;-)
	Liked by

09/01/2009, 07:26 PM	#8 (permalink)
snrfn93 Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Location: Central Ohio Posts: 12 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 20 Thanked 0 Times in 0 Posts	Out of curiosity, from where are you pulling these numbers?
	Liked by

09/02/2009, 12:18 AM	#11 (permalink)
sixerztres Member Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 13 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 0 Thanked 4 Times in 2 Posts	Not exactly, when Pandora updated to a newer version, updating the app counted as another download. I think it happened at around 70k downloads.
	Liked by

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