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  1. ray1b's Avatar
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       #1  
    Return rates: Palm Pre 11%. Apple iPhone 3GS 7%. - Apple 2.0 - Fortune Brainstorm Tech

    How often does the Palm (PALM) Pre break down and have to be returned and exchanged for a new one?

    That question came up a few weeks after the Pre's June 6 launch when Jesup and Lamont analyst Kevin Dede, citing a decidedly unscientific online survey, reported that the Pre's return rate was a shocking 40%.

    Pre Central, the site that conducted the poll, promptly disputed its own results. It ran a second, larger survey and got a slightly more comforting return rate: 18%.

    A few days later, RBC Capital's Mike Abramsky weighed in, estimating the actual return rate to be 2% 3%, a figure he arrived at by throwing out from his estimate of the total return rate (8% to 15%) any units that were exchanged for new ones.

    Now ChangeWave Research has released its own estimate, and while hardly definitive, it at least provides some context.

    Based on a survey of 198 Apple (AAPL) iPhone 3GS owners and 38 Pre owners, it found that the exchange rate of the Pre (11%) was indeed higher than the iPhone (7%), but not by much.
  2. urkel's Avatar
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    #2  
    I'm not slamming you by saying this, but all these % statistics are annoying the hell out of me. iPhone has 92% customer satisfaction. 12% of Pre owners want more apps. 64% of people walking out of Transformers 2 would buy an android phone.

    These statistics are meaningless and the ONLY reason they exist is because sensationalistic articles proving/disproving an Apple product gets a ton of web hits. But realistically the articles are devoid of any content and only provide skewed results that are meant to fuel pointless fanboy debates.

    /rant
  3. #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by Urkel View Post
    ...
    These statistics are meaningless
    ...
    Esepcially a poll that polled 198 Apple owners out of millions, and 38 Pre owners out of hundreds of thousands.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Esepcially a poll that polled 198 Apple owners out of millions, and 38 Pre owners out of hundreds of thousands.
    Totally...give me a poll with at least 5000 users of each and then we will have a better estimate... but even then, that won't be definitive until Apple and Palm release actual numbers..

    sigh
  5. #5  
    The precision of a survey with only 38 respondents has to be in question. Statistical rule of thumb is 5 to 1. You want a precision of 1%, you need 500 respondents. For 38, the best statistically significant precision available would be 5/38=13.16%. Assuming that 4 (4/38=10.52%) people responded saying that they had to return their phone, this poll is skating on statistical thin ice. Maybe it's a little better if those 38 people were chosen very very carefully, but they would have to all be taken from different build dates and run through the various different shipping channels, and I think that would be pretty hard to do. Maybe they've done it.

    Extrapolating from 38 people to the multiple hundreds of thousands of Pre's out there is a little dicey. I'd feel better about a survey of 1000 people. All this survey really says is that the Pre has had some returns.
    Palm III-->Handspring Visor-->Sony Clie PEG-NR70-->no PDA -->Palm Treo 755p-->Palm Pre-->HP Veer
  6. #6  
    And, not only a poll with a larger absolute sample size, but also with sampling that even resembles relevance.
    Treo 600 > Treo 650 > HTC Mogul (*****!) > HTC Touch Pro (***** squared!) > PRE! > Epic
  7. #7  
    198 Apple (AAPL) iPhone 3GS owners and 38 Pre owners

    Seriously? Stats Fail.
  8. #8  
    These polls are worthless.
  9. Clack's Avatar
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    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Urkel View Post
    These statistics are meaningless and the ONLY reason they exist is because sensationalistic articles proving/disproving an Apple product gets a ton of web hits. But realistically the articles are devoid of any content and only provide skewed results that are meant to fuel pointless fanboy debates.

    /rant
    They are not meaningless. You just have to realize the context and then know enough about how the study was designed to know if stat A of Product I can be compared to stat S of Product P. In most general Media shows, they cannot be even though they do it.
    Last edited by Clack; 08/19/2009 at 06:02 PM.
    "We must not contradict, but instruct him that contradicts us; for a madman is not cured by another running mad also." - Dr. An Wang
  10. #10  
    This survey has broken the barrier of statistical FAILURE. There is no way you can expect to have percentages as precise as 1% with 38 respondents.
  11. groovy's Avatar
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    #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by Urkel View Post
    64% of people walking out of Transformers 2 would buy an android phone.
    And 90% just wished they had the last three hours of their lives back.
  12. groovy's Avatar
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    #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Esepcially a poll that polled 198 Apple owners out of millions, and 38 Pre owners out of hundreds of thousands.
    I was at a restaurant last night and there was one girl in the party next to mine that had a Pre. I overheard her say she hated it. Since I like mine, I guess that gives the Pre a 50% satisfaction rate?
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by Clack View Post
    There are not meaningless. You just have to realize the context and then know enough about how the study was designed to know if stat A of Product I can be compared to stat S of Product P. In most general Media shows, they cannot be even though they do it.
    Sorry, you can spin it any way you want. A poll using that small a sampling is meaningless (in the context of what we're talking about).

    Here's an example.

    Out of a group polled:
    50% owned the Pre
    66.6 % of those that did not own one, said would prefer them over their current phone
    100% of those that owned a Pre very "Very Satisfied" with their device
    The return rate was 0% after over 2 months of use.

    The poll was taken above a sail boat that I crew. The owner and his wife both own Pres, I do too. Their two kids don't, but really want them. One other crew member doesn't have one, doesn't care about them.

    Meaningless.
  14. JKTex's Avatar
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    #14  
    One thing to consider though, is that the Pre has moving parts. Expect more returns simply based on that.

    Also consider how many iPhone's may not be returned because they owner knows they aren't covered.

    Too many differences to compare with a crappy little poll like that.
  15. #15  
    Neither survey from this new article is enough to judge return rates on.
  16. #16  
    Just like the number of units sold we won't know until Palm tells us. They have been far to quiet.
  17. #17  
    does anyone know what the return rate was for the 1st gen iphone, it seems like we should compare the pre to that and not a 3rd gen iphone
  18. #18  
    LOL, 11% of 38 people returned their phones, 4.18 people returned their phones. That poor .18 of a person, how do they survive in a full-sized world? I smell a reality show on TLC about that poor individual.

    These statistics are meaningless. Just imagine their error bars, "11% +/- 15%" or something like that. Completely meaningless to look at 38 respondents and present it as a straight statistic with no error bars or anything of that kind to show the built-in error in their measurement.
  19. #19  
    Bingo! Compare 1st gen to 1st gen. In the end who really cares.
  20. urkel's Avatar
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    #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by omgitsjordan View Post
    does anyone know what the return rate was for the 1st gen iphone, it seems like we should compare the pre to that and not a 3rd gen iphone
    Why? What purpose does a survey like this actually provide other than bragging rights about a subject that is completely unrelated. These may be competing products but the kind of stuff people are obsessing over (number of apps at launch, return rate, etc) are pointless comparisons.
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