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  1. SharonW's Avatar
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       #1  
    Once again they've quoted statistics from JNK's channel checks. While I already find these channel checks to be far too little a data sampling rate, they actually show sales increasing, not decreasing thus belying the article's title and premise:
    Analyst Finds Palm Pre Sales Stabilize At Ho-Hum Levels

    Despite the early fanfare and limited inventory at launch, Sprint doesnít seem to be hitting it out of the park with the new Palm Pre. Earlier this month we reported on some channel checks by JNK Securities analyst Mike Ehrlich, who called 50 Sprint stores and found out that sales were lackluster. Yesterday, he issued a new report based on channel checks from last Thursday and Friday, Week 5 after the Preís launch. Of the stores willing to discuss sales volumes, here is the breakdown of demand on a per-store basis:

    * Week 5 Palm Pre Sales Per Sprint Store 10 units or less: 30% (vs. 40% the prior week)
    * 10 to 20 units: 45% (vs. 33% the prior week)
    * 20 to 30 units: 18% (vs. 16% the prior week)
    * 30 to 50 units: 12% (no comparable)

    The sales seem to be stabilizing, with 45 percent of stores reporting 10 to 20 units sold last week, up from 33 percent the week before. Stores reporting 20 to 30 units sold, and 30 to 50 units, also increased. The only sold-out situations appeared at three stores expecting new shipments.
    Then to top THIS off, they use the dead-wrong number of Sprint stores to extrapolate weekly sales numbers!!!

    Sprint has about 1,000 stores, so surveying 50 random ones may or may not be indicative of what is going on throughout the network. So treat this as a data point, until Sprint or Palm choose to disclose actual sales figures. But if this distribution of sales holds across all of Sprintís stores, it would amount to between 20,000 to 30,000 units sold each week, well below the 50,000 to 60,000 weekly sales estimated at the end of June.
    Sprint actually has about 1,600 stores or 60% more than used in this extrapolation. Correct sales figures would then lift the number to 32,000 to 48,000 per week and even THAT doesn't include the 20,000 other distribution points.

    I did point this out to them in the comments section.

    Analyst Finds Palm Pre Sales Stabilize At Ho-Hum Levels
  2. fwinst's Avatar
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    I really don't know what the sales numbers are. However, the statement "...who called 50 Sprint stores and found out that sales were lackluster...", might be a bit misleading. If Sprint stores lack the stock to sell, their sales might be "lackluster" as far a sheer volume. But the fact that every phone that comes in is spoken for, must certainly count for something.
    Last edited by fwinst; 07/14/2009 at 02:12 PM. Reason: spelling
  3. SharonW's Avatar
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       #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by fwinst View Post
    I really don't know what the sales numbers are. However, the statement "...who called 50 Sprint stores and found out that sales were lackluster...", might be a bit misleading. If Sprint stores lack the stock to sell, their sales might be "lackluster" as far a sheer volume. But the fact that every phone that comes in is spoken for, must certainly count for something.
    Something is drastically wrong with their extrapolations. If one were to take the mean between 32,000 and 48,000 of 40,000 and then just add in the sale of the tiniest amount of 2 phones per week for the other 20,000 distribution points, you'd have weekly sales of 80,000 per week! There's NOTHING lackluster about that especially since it's been over a month after the launch.
  4. #4  
    Crap, we have atleast 30 sprint only stores in my area alone... And the three stores I visited all told me they had a waiting list to get the Pre...

    They were selling them way faster then they could get them...

    The store reps were told they can't even buy them because Sprint has such a large demand for them that they won't let the employees get them yet... Not sure how long that will hold though...

    Might help if they stop having the DOA pre's though..

    Although it seems like there were a few bad batches of Iphones too when they first came out?

    Rodney
  5. SharonW's Avatar
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       #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by rulk View Post
    Crap, we have atleast 30 sprint only stores in my area alone... And the three stores I visited all told me they had a waiting list to get the Pre...

    They were selling them way faster then they could get them...

    The store reps were told they can't even buy them because Sprint has such a large demand for them that they won't let the employees get them yet... Not sure how long that will hold though...

    Might help if they stop having the DOA pre's though..

    Although it seems like there were a few bad batches of Iphones too when they first came out?

    Rodney
    Well that's the whole problem with this "channel check" analysis. It sounds entirely bogus considering they don't tell you WHICH stores, in WHAT states and cities were checked. Moreover, they neglect to say how many stores declined to respond, merely that they surveyed 50 stores. Was it some random store in every single state or 50 stores in five mid-west states? Or did they contact the store in every state capital or Tinydeserttown, Nevada?

    So all the way around, the channel check data is suspect as is TechCrunch's extrapolations done only to insinuate ho-hum sales whereas even though the data from the channel checks is totally unqualified, they actually showed increasing sales over their last channel check and their point seemed to be to show that shortages for customers who wanted phones were decreasing. All-in-all, suspect data and garbage, biased reporting.

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