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  1. nhavar's Avatar
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    #21  
    Comparing 1.0 products with 1.0 products iPhone 1.0 only sold about 270,000 units it's opening quarter. It was propped up by it's iPod cobranding and the excitement behind having a phone that also had an iPod AND a camera AND had a touchscreen. Critics and users panned it as a crappy phone pretty quickly. It had few built in apps and no app store. It was expensive and for some fragile and buggy. Remember back to all the horror stories of people cutting themselves on sharp edges, on exploding batteries, cracked screens, and bricked phones. Developers railed at the thought of only being able to create web applications for the phone or hack it and possibly brick the phone. Those are the pains that come with a 1.0 product no matter how well thought out.

    Apple learned some lessons and have now sold millions of phones world wide over several generations of the phone. Why wouldn't we expect Palm do something similar.

    Just looking at the numbers. If the iPhone only sold 270,000 its first quarter and the Pre has already surpassed that - why wouldn't we expect the Pre to end up selling millions of phones over the next two years just like the iPhone did.

    Yes, Palm still has to fix the balance sheets, but positive sales of the Pre along with a cut of the profit once the app store opens will certainly help push things in a more positive direction.

    One other thing to think about is that given the Pre's optimistic sales numbers maybe it will drive some of the other phone manufacturers to innovate instead of pumping out yet another slightly updated version of their previous line.
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by oddlou View Post
    That's a very personal list. Worldwide sales, however, have Symbian way ahead, followed by RIM, Winmo, then Apple. The Pre and Android are pretty far behind because of their relative newness.
    I'm not going by sales with the list, I'm going by quality of the operating system. The iPhone, webOS, and Blackberry are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest in that aspect.

    And I agree that Symbian is a huge seller overseas, but it has next to no sales in the US.

    Regardless, there's room for everyone, and I really hope MS, Symbian, and the people behind Android figure it out quickly. (And HTC's Hero is a huge step forward for Android in that respect.)
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by jhoff80 View Post
    I'm not going by sales with the list, I'm going by quality of the operating system. The iPhone, webOS, and Blackberry are leaps and bounds ahead of the rest in that aspect.

    And I agree that Symbian is a huge seller overseas, but it has next to no sales in the US.

    Regardless, there's room for everyone, and I really hope MS, Symbian, and the people behind Android figure it out quickly. (And HTC's Hero is a huge step forward for Android in that respect.)
    You were going by your very subjective rating of the quality of the OS. I much prefer winmo to both blackberry and the Iphone's operating systems. There are many things I prefer on winmo to to webos, actually.

    None of the current OSs are perfect and all could be improved drastically. I wouldn't say any of them is leaps and bounds ahead of any other as a whole.
  4. CTFan's Avatar
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    #24  
    Google? Having a 1-up on the Pre? Gimme a break!
  5. Minsc's Avatar
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    #25  
    Did you guys see the comments at the end of the article? Here's the first one, which (I think) really sums up many of our thoughts:
    Have you considered the likely possibility that the Pre will sell a medium amount of phones and enjoy a moderate amount of success? Not everything in this world is bound to either fail miserably or completely bankrupt all competitors. I don't understand this fascination with forcing everything into being black or white. Sure, the Pre is not going to dethrone the iPhone, but it's still a good smartphone that can compete for the people who don't want an iPhone (and believe it or not, that's a sizable market).
    This was immediately followed by a reply from Henry Blodget himself:
    That is Palm's argument. I guess it's possible, at least for a while.

    I think what's different about the smartphone market, as opposed to previous handset markets, is the network effect created by apps. As more and more apps get made for the iPhone, it will become more valuable to users, etc.

    At the very least, I think you'll see consolidation.

    But perhaps you're right: The coexistence of a half-dozen handset makers will exist in perpetuity.
    It wouldn't shock me at all if Blodget was "encouraged" by his editors to make a sensationalistic article. Unfortunately, that's the way it seems with many of these online articles - they all get exaggerated just to get more ad revenue.
  6. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by nhavar View Post
    Comparing 1.0 products with 1.0 products iPhone 1.0 only sold about 270,000 units it's opening quarter.
    You don't compare current products with 2 year-old ones. It just doesn't make sense. Also, the iPhone was originally sold at pricepoints of $500 and $600. They sold 270,000 units at $400-600 dollars each. No subsidy.

    Critics and users panned it as a crappy phone pretty quickly. It had few built in apps and no app store. It was expensive and for some fragile and buggy. Remember back to all the horror stories of people cutting themselves on sharp edges, on exploding batteries, cracked screens, and bricked phones. Developers railed at the thought of only being able to create web applications for the phone or hack it and possibly brick the phone. Those are the pains that come with a 1.0 product no matter how well thought out.
    Two. Years. Ago. It's not like Ford comes out with a new car that has a carbuerator (sp) and everyone says, "it's okay guys, it's the first year of our car! we'll get there!".

    Apple learned some lessons and have now sold millions of phones world wide Why wouldn't we expect Palm do something similar.
    You'd expect Palm over the past 4 years of WebOS development to have not only included some of the great features of the Pre (multitasking and such) but some of the obvious, essential features that it lacks, especially considering that Apple forgot them.


    One other thing to think about is that given the Pre's optimistic sales numbers maybe it will drive some of the other phone manufacturers to innovate instead of pumping out yet another slightly updated version of their previous line.
    I have no doubt about this. Anyone who thinks those engineers up in Cupertino aren't spending restless nights improving the iPhone is nuts. The Pre upped the ante, no matter how many units it sells.
  7. nhavar's Avatar
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    #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by Badandy127 View Post
    You don't compare current products with 2 year-old ones. It just doesn't make sense. Also, the iPhone was originally sold at pricepoints of $500 and $600. They sold 270,000 units at $400-600 dollars each. No subsidy.
    The reason you can compare the two is because they were 1.0 products, new to the market and innovative relative to the rest of the market. It also helps to the level set a little considering the current state of the market, the fact that Apple is on the 3rd generation of it's hardware not to mention many many refinements to the manufacturing process and tons of patches to it's software. Then you take into account the advantage Apple had from the success of the iPod and the momentum there, and the eagerness of the public to hear about anything other than RIM's latest blackberry swirl, curve, cure, swoop, whatever.

    Apple didn't need to subsidize. They knew people still had disposable income and based on the success and price points of the iPod they knew they had the "must have" gadget. The iPhone was much more a vanity item than it was a productivity tool or even a useful phone.

    But because of Apple the cost to implement the technology has been significantly reduced. Plus Apple wasn't exactly struggling, and what they found out over time was that they would sell more units if they lowered the price, which they did. Plus with the down turn in the economy it's harder to sell a $500-600 phone even a touch screen considering that a lot of them are coming out now. Subsidy or not. Hence Apple reduced the price of the iPhone and subsidized it through the carrier for the latest version (just like everyone else does).

    Quote Originally Posted by Badandy127 View Post
    Two. Years. Ago. It's not like Ford comes out with a new car that has a carbuerator (sp) and everyone says, "it's okay guys, it's the first year of our car! we'll get there!".
    Never driven a Ford eh? There is actually a saying "Never buy the first year of a new model car." The reason is that the first year the company may be trying out a new suspension system, gearbox, ECM, carburetor, or breaking system and during that year they work out all the kinks. They find things like loose trim, faulty wiring, and design ideas that don't quite work in a real world setting. My wife was unfortunate enough to have a first model Chrysler/Dodge that introduced throttle body injected carburetor. Not a fun experience for her, us or the mechanic.

    And yes they do sometimes leave things out of the car that previous models or other very successful models had. Top Gear is constantly showcasing VERY VERY expensive cars missing stupid things like a window you can roll down, or easy to find door handles, external mirrors, a stereo, or cup holders. Sometimes those missing items make sense - how many rich people pull into drive-thru or want a soda sitting where it can spill on their italian leather or want a stereo blaring over the purr of their very expensive and powerful engine. Sometimes they don't - door handles.

    Quote Originally Posted by Badandy127 View Post
    You'd expect Palm over the past 4 years of WebOS development to have not only included some of the great features of the Pre (multitasking and such) but some of the obvious, essential features that it lacks, especially considering that Apple forgot them.
    Well obviously those obvious and essential features aren't that big of a deal to the consumer considering that Apple made out like gang busters with their phone that lacked those features.

    One of the problems with how fast the market moves on phones is that the phone manufacturers continue to pile on feature after feature after feature on top of all the previous bloat of features. One feature may cater to a ridiculously small margin of their customer base (however loud they might be.) Suddenly you're designing your product for 20% instead of the 80%. Which is what put Palm in the crapper to begin with. The easiest way to stop that is go back to the drawing board and narrow the features down to the basics, which was really the allure of the iPhone - simplicity. People learned that they didn't need all of those gee-whiz fancy features they thought they did and the people who did REALLY need them found a phone that already had them.

    Palm did that with the Pre. It has a good solid base to build up from and one that's easy to extend.

    Start with only the basic functionality first:
    -Phone (check)
    -Messaging (check)
    -E-Mail (check)
    -Camera (check)
    -Contacts (check)
    -Internet (check)
    -Apps option (check)

    Throw in a hook or gimmick or two to catch people's attention and drive initial sales (Synergy, Multi-tasking). Then you make sure you're addressing stability and security, while you prioritize your feature backlog based on enterprise customers, retail customer requests, and your development partner priorities. The high value stuff starts to trickle out first with a few low value but high visibility items to keep the vocal minority quieter.


    Quote Originally Posted by Badandy127 View Post
    I have no doubt about this. Anyone who thinks those engineers up in Cupertino aren't spending restless nights improving the iPhone is nuts. The Pre upped the ante, no matter how many units it sells.
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by bbr View Post
    I agree with this guy, competition is absolutely terrible, especially for us consumers. Give me a break.

    I see what you did there....
  9. groovy's Avatar
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    #29  
    It appears that in Blodget's case, when you can't do, write.

    The SEC charged him with Civil Securities Fraud and barred him permanently from securities.

    By the way, generally speaking, the only people who think less than blog readers are blog writers.
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by nhavar View Post
    The reason you can compare the two is because they were 1.0 products, new to the market and innovative relative to the rest of the market. It also helps to the level set a little considering the current state of the market, the fact that Apple is on the 3rd generation of it's hardware not to mention many many refinements to the manufacturing process and tons of patches to it's software. Then you take into account the advantage Apple had from the success of the iPod and the momentum there, and the eagerness of the public to hear about anything other than RIM's latest blackberry swirl, curve, cure, swoop, whatever.
    Hardware. That's the only valid 1.0 to 1.0 comparison. New design vs. new design. Software will still have some bugs, no doubt, but I'd have hoped that Palm included some basic functionality.

    Apple didn't need to subsidize. They knew people still had disposable income and based on the success and price points of the iPod they knew they had the "must have" gadget.
    Well then that's their gain. All I'm saying is that Apple sold all those 1.0 iPhones in your original post for double the price of the Pre. The sales numbers aren't that comparable.


    Never driven a Ford eh? There is actually a saying "Never buy the first year of a new model car."
    I actually own a Ford, and it's the first year of a radical redesign to an existing model (basically the same in name only). I've had one headlight burn out in 5 years. That's it.


    Well obviously those obvious and essential features aren't that big of a deal to the consumer considering that Apple made out like gang busters with their phone that lacked those features.
    True, but people here didn't hesitate to bash Apple for not including those features yet are complete apologists for when Palm didn't. It's just hypocritical and it gets to be a bore.

    Suddenly you're designing your product for 20% instead of the 80%. Which is what put Palm in the crapper to begin with. The easiest way to stop that is go back to the drawing board and narrow the features down to the basics, which was really the allure of the iPhone - simplicity. People learned that they didn't need all of those gee-whiz fancy features they thought they did and the people who did REALLY need them found a phone that already had them.
    Exactly, but Palm should have added features that are necessary. Not gee-whiz features. I don't need to go into that here, there are multi-page threads dedicated to that topic.


    I guess my points boil down to these

    -The author of the article is a joke. No idea what he's talking about.
    -You shouldn't compare products released two years apart.
    -People made fun of iPhone users when Apple didn't include wanted features but then backtrack when they found out Palm didn't either.
    -400,000 units is a good start, but has anyone seen the shape Palm is in? It's pitiful.
    -Competition is good.
  11. DuStU's Avatar
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    #31  
    Palm has it right..... Only time will tell, I think palm is making the right move targeting non smartphone users along with with the current market. From what I see when the gsm version is released across seas then we can make some comparisons of the amount of pres sold. Personally I think 400,000 is amazing being sold on a single US carrier with such a "crowded" market. I think the palm will continue to plow through the ranks of the haters and one day they will have to just shutup with their negative remarks.

    GO PALM!!
  12. zebrok's Avatar
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    #32  
    I couldn't care less about numbers, worldwide or US centric. All i know is this: everyone that has seen my pre, and what it can do, wants one. They haven't gotten one yet due to contract commitments, financial restraints or in a few cases the "lets wait and see how many games they can get" syndrome (work with some kids - 19-24 yrs old). Pre is truly a little computer in your hand. Blackberry, great for security and messaging. Iphone, great media and game player. Pre is your computer in your Palm.

    I would mention Winmo and Android but....one is windows, nuff said, and the other....is cool but, they fouled it off. Next swing could be a home run, who knows.
  13. mapara's Avatar
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    #33  
    The Pre is no iPhone <--- this
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by nhavar View Post
    The reason you can compare the two is because they were 1.0 products, new to the market and innovative relative to the rest of the market. It also helps to the level set a little considering the current state of the market, the fact that Apple is on the 3rd generation of it's hardware not to mention many many refinements to the manufacturing process and tons of patches to it's software. Then you take into account the advantage Apple had from the success of the iPod and the momentum there, and the eagerness of the public to hear about anything other than RIM's latest blackberry swirl, curve, cure, swoop, whatever.

    Apple didn't need to subsidize. They knew people still had disposable income and based on the success and price points of the iPod they knew they had the "must have" gadget. The iPhone was much more a vanity item than it was a productivity tool or even a useful phone.

    But because of Apple the cost to implement the technology has been significantly reduced. Plus Apple wasn't exactly struggling, and what they found out over time was that they would sell more units if they lowered the price, which they did. Plus with the down turn in the economy it's harder to sell a $500-600 phone even a touch screen considering that a lot of them are coming out now. Subsidy or not. Hence Apple reduced the price of the iPhone and subsidized it through the carrier for the latest version (just like everyone else does).



    Never driven a Ford eh? There is actually a saying "Never buy the first year of a new model car." The reason is that the first year the company may be trying out a new suspension system, gearbox, ECM, carburetor, or breaking system and during that year they work out all the kinks. They find things like loose trim, faulty wiring, and design ideas that don't quite work in a real world setting. My wife was unfortunate enough to have a first model Chrysler/Dodge that introduced throttle body injected carburetor. Not a fun experience for her, us or the mechanic.

    And yes they do sometimes leave things out of the car that previous models or other very successful models had. Top Gear is constantly showcasing VERY VERY expensive cars missing stupid things like a window you can roll down, or easy to find door handles, external mirrors, a stereo, or cup holders. Sometimes those missing items make sense - how many rich people pull into drive-thru or want a soda sitting where it can spill on their italian leather or want a stereo blaring over the purr of their very expensive and powerful engine. Sometimes they don't - door handles.



    Well obviously those obvious and essential features aren't that big of a deal to the consumer considering that Apple made out like gang busters with their phone that lacked those features.

    One of the problems with how fast the market moves on phones is that the phone manufacturers continue to pile on feature after feature after feature on top of all the previous bloat of features. One feature may cater to a ridiculously small margin of their customer base (however loud they might be.) Suddenly you're designing your product for 20% instead of the 80%. Which is what put Palm in the crapper to begin with. The easiest way to stop that is go back to the drawing board and narrow the features down to the basics, which was really the allure of the iPhone - simplicity. People learned that they didn't need all of those gee-whiz fancy features they thought they did and the people who did REALLY need them found a phone that already had them.

    Palm did that with the Pre. It has a good solid base to build up from and one that's easy to extend.

    Start with only the basic functionality first:
    -Phone (check)
    -Messaging (check)
    -E-Mail (check)
    -Camera (check)
    -Contacts (check)
    -Internet (check)
    -Apps option (check)

    Throw in a hook or gimmick or two to catch people's attention and drive initial sales (Synergy, Multi-tasking). Then you make sure you're addressing stability and security, while you prioritize your feature backlog based on enterprise customers, retail customer requests, and your development partner priorities. The high value stuff starts to trickle out first with a few low value but high visibility items to keep the vocal minority quieter.
    I think you're both right and wrong. It's true that Apple has had 3 years of a head start on WebOS, so you can't compare the 3GS (or more suitably, iPhone 3.0 OS) to webOS 1.0, but I don't believe you can compare webOS 1.0 to iPhone OS 1.0 because of the general advancement of the market. WebOS is indeed a 1.0 but has also been able to see and gather ideas for a longer period of time than iPhone 1.0, specifically webOS 1.0 has witnessed 3 years of progression over the iPhone 1.0 os.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by mapara View Post
    The Pre is no iPhone <--- this
    Actually, the iPhone is no Pre
    Palm History: Palm III>IIIc>CLIÉ NR70v>CLIÉ TG50>Tungsten C>Treo 650>Treo 700p>Centro>Pre!! 6/5/09
    Phone History: Way too long

    Sorry Timmy, SERO does not work with the Pre.
    If you have an iTouch click me.
  16. nyseahorse's Avatar
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    #36  
    How many of the Iphones 1 million sales were people returning the older model for the new one?
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by nyseahorse View Post
    How many of the Iphones 1 million sales were people returning the older model for the new one?
    You are right, I am willing to bet that 50%+ were just upgrades from the old ones. The Pre is a new product with a new platform and has done extremly well.
  18. #38  
    ^^^While I guess selling all those upgrades doesn't improve market penetration. Their still new phones sold for Apple. I'm sure Palm could click along nicely selling 1 million phones a weekend upgrades or otherwise.
    Palm V > samsung i500> treo 650 > treo 755p> Centro> Pre
  19. emuneee's Avatar
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    #39  
    In my opinion I think if any mobile platform fails, it'll be on a regional basis.

    WebOS has a lot of what it takes to be successful, however, to say it will be more successful than Android is saying a lot. Android is completely open source to anyone, so I think that has more potential as a total package right now than WebOS because anyone/any-manufacturer can customize any layer of the OS to their hearts content. And while there is only 1 Android device out in the US (will be 2 by the end of July) there are several coming out between now and the end of the year by multiple manufacturers in multiple regions.

    Back on topic, that article is terrible. I think there is space for more than one mobile platform. I think a strong two, and a mild three. It's hard to say though.
  20. IMethos's Avatar
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       #40  
    A mild three? there are room for as many good OS's that are made.
    Do you think consumers care what the OS is? they care about the user experience. period.
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