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  1. Goyena's Avatar
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       #1  
    Is there going to be a Pre with your name on it come June 6th? I believe so, Pedro the Goat's recent hands-on pre-Pre-View just put it in place for me. Let's do the math:

    - 1 week before the Release, and STILL no huge marketing campaign
    - rumors of low availability, but always different numbers
    - BestBuy, Sprint AND RadioShack taking part in release, despite "low" availability
    - release date sliding, rumors say it's due to pricing and demand, NOT availability
    -WebOS version on d94 shows 1.0.1 show that there was no major overhaul of a release candidate (ok, this is a weak argument. the version number could mean anything for a lot of reasons)
    - Jon Rubenstein saying he learned a lot from Apple, especially in terms of marketing
    - ref. above: so where IS that marketing? All we seen until now is leaks and hype, so wh - unless....
    - Leaks and hype are both viral marketing (which don't, by definition, cost much) They also require a climate of complete and utter secrecy to exist, peppered by a bit of legal clowning around to make it realistic: NDAs, Cease and Desist, even a hint of heads rolling...
    - the oft-vaunted secrecy. So what other purpose did it really have? If anything, it's even a bit costly in financial and organizational costs that a company as low on cash-flow as Palm is would need a specific purpose for such an outlay.

    The last two pieces in the puzzle now fall into place:

    - "Sprint War Room" - extra personnel, extra trained. ReadyNow means you, the customer, leave the store, setup and trained, with your NEW DEVICE IN HAND. And this will go on for two months? Can you imagine a WarRoom with only 2 devices per store?

    - "Kerrville, Texas" Meet the Home of Pedro the Goat, population 20,425 (in 2000). TWENTY Pres, and only ten on the waiting list? Listen, guys, if there's a war room deployed, then there's definitely an insanely organized web of communication and logistics behind it. Meaning that if there is really a 600,000 person long waiting list in DC, there is NO way that Sprint will be sending 10 "extra" to Kerrville.

    Yep. I believe there's a lot more Pres out there than they are letting on to. Palm has managed to spawn a raving new breed of fanboys (thanks, BGR! We'll take that as a compliment!) on a shoestring budget in a fairly small amount of time, and we wouldn't have it any other way. So, you'll get yours come Release Day. Then go forth and evangelize.

    Low or easy availability -- if I wasn't in France, I'd still camp out anyway. 10 or 10,000, I think this baby is going to move.

    DISCLAIMERS: No offense to the residents of Kerrville, especially not The Goat. If you send me one of those remaining 10 Pre's (preferably an unlocked GSM version, d-oh), I'll refraing from making backhanded analyses in the future.

    Also, if my above analysis is proved correct, I hope that the jobs of the Kerrville Sprint shop aren't in danger. Please keep us reassure, Goat, that your friends in the store remain hale and hearty.

    Update: vamike78 says a store in Northern VA (that's pretty much the DC area) has "enough" so they won't run out.

    Can someone else do some real math? If all stores the size of Kerrville's and over have 20 Pres, how many does that make nationwide?

    Update (a few numbers I've been reading):
    Kerrville (Pedro the Goat): 23+
    Northern VA store (vamike78): "enough"
    NYC store (mecca): 100
    Last edited by Goyena; 05/30/2009 at 07:00 PM.
  2. #2  
    You propose a very interesting and perhaps logical analysis of the Palm/Sprint marketing strategy for this phone. So, what is the function of all this 'shortage' spin?
  3. Goyena's Avatar
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       #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by clevelandrocker View Post
    You propose a very interesting and perhaps logical analysis of the Palm/Sprint marketing strategy for this phone. So, what is the function of all this 'shortage' spin?
    Ah yes. Forgot to mention my take on that: it's to make sure the maximum amount of people are there on opening day. If you think there will only be 2 to a store and waiting lists aren't possible, you'll want to be there when the doors open! Other reasons why:

    - convince people they will be the first and only one at work/school to have one
    - people camping out and crowding stores will go on the 6o'clock news. Voila more free marketing.
    - Apple will announce something "big" (also very secret and very leaked) in only two days time
    - people will make a decision in advance thinking there's a very small window
    - Roger McNamee really was serious about the 4:20 change
  4. dianeh#WN's Avatar
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    #4  
    I just stopped by a local store and the sprint rep said there should be plenty. He thinks the rumor of scarcity is just hype.
  5. enjoyingsilence
    enjoyingsilence's Avatar
    #5  
    Well I'll be at my local bestbuy @ 8 am. possibly 7 am. I have to drive about an hour to get there. With a coffee traveler in the passenger floorboard of my car, I'll be a happy camper.

    Might even bring my hookah
  6. #6  
    Local manager says sprint has 1.7 million on the email notify list... Even if only 25% of those really are going to buy it, that's alot of pres right off the bat to have ready.
  7. #7  
    Bravo and cudos to you! You should be a professional marketing analyst (if you're not already). I'll bet this plays out the way you predict.
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by Goyena View Post
    Can someone else do some real math?

    Yes, here you go:




    Sorry, I couldn't resist .
    Palm History: Palm III>IIIc>CLIÉ NR70v>CLIÉ TG50>Tungsten C>Treo 650>Treo 700p>Centro>Pre!! 6/5/09
    Phone History: Way too long

    Sorry Timmy, SERO does not work with the Pre.
    If you have an iTouch click me.
  9. Goyena's Avatar
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       #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by 9 Inch Pre Niss View Post
    Local manager says sprint has 1.7 million on the email notify list... Even if only 25% of those really are going to buy it, that's alot of pres right off the bat to have ready.
    Aha. So the local managers are aware of nationwide demand. Great. Don't forget that Sprint/Palm reconfirmed demand with a few other mailings in the meantime, at least one with a reponse requested.
  10. gbp
    gbp is offline
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    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by Goyena View Post

    Update: vamike78 says a store in Northern VA (that's pretty much the DC area) has "enough" so they won't run out.
    I live in DC area , and just had my name ( which is third in the list) on the waiting list. The store representative refused to say the number , but did add that they have "ENOUGH" with a smile.

    Me thinks its similar to Wii , person to person, ear to ear marketing based on the early adapters.
  11. #11  
    Yep. The several retail stores I called in Cleveland all said the Pre would be available on the 6th, and none were able to give even an approximation of how many units will be in stock.
  12. #12  
    as for the 600k number, I believe they were throwing out numbers handed to them regarding the number of people who signed up online to "know when it's out." The store reps were pretty much clueless on how to access, or even sign up for said "waitlist."

    But I do believe there will be a short shortage. All these extra employees are not necessarily for the 6th, could be getting them ready for later in the month. Remember, palm had to release SOMETHING in June or else it would have been seen as "slipping."
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by gbp View Post
    Me thinks its similar to Wii , person to person, ear to ear marketing based on the early adapters.
    I'm hoping so.. all the hype we see is online stuff here, and I'm hoping that's just a small portion. maybe after the first week they'll actually run low if they're lucky. but that'll buy them some time in getting more out.
  14. #14  
    I live in an area with 2 sprint stores and 2 best buys for about 250,000 people. Last week I went into one of the best buys and got put on their waiting list and was number 4 on the list. I went back in there today and the mobile rep said that he knows a lot of information, but can't say anything about it and directed me to sprint.com/palmpre.

    I told him I justed wanted him to let me know how many he was getting and said that he had more on the waiting list than phones. I told him I was number 4 on the list and he said that his store was only getting 2 and the other was only getting 3. He said he expects more in a couple of days after launch.

    I am hoping that sprint is only giving a few to "3rd party" stores and keeping a lot of stock for themselves; otherwise, this whole rumor of not enough stock seems about right based on best buy's numbers.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by linh.nguyen View Post
    as for the 600k number, I believe they were throwing out numbers handed to them regarding the number of people who signed up online to "know when it's out." The store reps were pretty much clueless on how to access, or even sign up for said "waitlist."
    I was just thinking this over and this thought came into my head: There are differing reports on whether or not a waiting list even exists. Some stores report that there is such a list and are even going so far as to take deposits. Some managers are saying there is no list and that the Pre will be strictly first come first served (the stores I have called around Orange County are all reporting this). Why the discrepancy? Well, if we are to go with the scenario that there is NO list and that some of these managers are lying through their teeth, then it would make sense that they DO believe there will be enough stock to meet demand. Since this is the case then why not take give some of the people that are interested in the phone even MORE incentive to go to the store-of course with the caveat “that they be there early”? What is early? Why so vague? Because, I posit, these Sprint store managers know that as long as the people that signed up for this "list" get to the store within a reasonable amount of time on the 6th (not an hour before closing) they will get the Pre they signed this imaginary list for. I expect more than one Sprint employee chuckling a bit when he or she hears the words: "Hi my name is <so and so> and the store manager put me on the list!" Then the employee might be trained to tap the keyboard a couple of times and exclaim "Yes Mr.-I'm sorry what was your name again?"
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by bkco14 View Post
    I am hoping that sprint is only giving a few to "3rd party" stores and keeping a lot of stock for themselves; otherwise, this whole rumor of not enough stock seems about right based on best buy's numbers.
    My guess is the best buys will have more than the sprint stores. That is the mode for hyped phones in the past. Don't relay on what a best buy manager might tell you before hand, they are trying to sell you different phones as they know if you walk out of the store without the handset that moment,you will likely not come back. He was just treating you like a rube by saying they will have few.

    As far as the DC area 18th street store, that is the corporate store downtown, will not have many at all on the 6th. The main Alexandria Sprint store will have a few more, but the Best buys there will have quite a few.
    Quote Originally Posted by 9 Inch Pre Niss View Post
    Local manager says sprint has 1.7 million on the email notify list... Even if only 25% of those really are going to buy it, that's alot of pres right off the bat to have ready.
    25% are probably duplicates. 70% are probably people casually interested in getting one at some point in next nine months.
    Quote Originally Posted by clevelandrocker View Post
    So, what is the function of all this 'shortage' spin?
    Because there is actually a shortage.

    Quote Originally Posted by deadpanwalking View Post
    I was just thinking this over and this thought came into my head: There are differing reports on whether or not a waiting list even exists. Some stores report that there is such a list and are even going so far as to take deposits. Some managers are saying there is no list and that the Pre will be strictly first come first served (the stores I have called around Orange County are all reporting this). Why the discrepancy?
    Because most "Sprint stores" are not owned by Sprint and could care less about any Sprint directives advising against waiting lists. And even the owned ones have employees and managers on commission and they have long known if someone walks out the door the chance of them going to Verizon, ATT, Boost, another Sprint store or telesales, etc are above 90% and then they lose their commission, so they rather get you on their list now. You do realize if another guy in the store sells you a pre (who cares abot hte pre, the point is the new or renewed contract) the guy who wants you on his list loses his commission.
    Last edited by aero; 05/30/2009 at 09:29 PM.
  17. #17  
    A shortage verified and confirmed by whom?
  18. #18  
    Most of the store managers and cell phone department managers are telling me that the number of PREs they get depend on the number of previous models they sell. One RS told me he was getting a good number of PREs because of the high rate of sales on the Treo 800w and the Treo Pro.

    IGO
    GIVE DEBBIE THE CHIMP.....GIVE DEBBIE THE CHIMP!!!
  19. #19  
    my local best buy is getting 3.....3!! i know this for a fact.....
    Mike (FOOmanJEW) Jaret-Schachter
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  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
    My guess is the best buys will have more than the sprint stores. That is the mode for hyped phones in the past. Don't relay on what a best buy manager might tell you before hand, they are trying to sell you different phones as they know if you walk out of the store without the handset that moment,you will likely not come back. He was just treating you like a rube by saying they will have few.
    Doesn't Sprint make more money if they sell the phone themselves then if Best Buy sells it? If that is the case, I would think a sprint store would have more than Best Buy.

    Also, the Best Buy guy didn't even try and sell me a phone. I would think it wouldn't serve them well to say that they are only getting 2 and that they may get more in a day or two. By doing that, you are telling people to not come into the store on launch day, but they will have more in a day. I don't think they are trying to sell other phones at that point.

    We also heard from BGR's "ninja" that Best Buy's were only going to get around 4 phones. Since we are a smaller market, having 1 store get 2 and another get 3 does not sound out of the ordinary.

    Do you think then that our Sprint stores are only going to get between 1 and 3?
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