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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    Yep, 17 million unhappy users.
    didn't say they weren't happy. But Apple will need a compelling reason to upgrade unless you're an original iphone owner. I doubt this next iphone can offer that compelling reason.

    Not to mention the media will be in a frenzy with the Pre at that time. Apple better have more than storage and a lame video recorder up their sleeve.
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Good thing we know for a fact that this actually is Palm's strategy, eh?
    I hope for Palms sake it is not.
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
    didn't say they weren't happy. But Apple will need a compelling reason to upgrade unless you're an original iphone owner. I doubt this next iphone can offer that compelling reason.

    Not to mention the media will be in a frenzy with the Pre at that time. Apple better have more than storage and a lame video recorder up their sleeve.
    Maybe you should wait to see what the new iPhone will include before you start criticizing. Not everybody purchasing the newewst iPhone will be current iPhone 2.0 owners. There will be plenty of new and iPhone 1.0 users looking to purchase also.
  4. #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    Maybe you should wait to see what the new iPhone will include before you start criticizing.
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    This is the stupidiest thing I ever heard.
    Yes, you should wait to see what the new iPhone is before criticizing, but you should NOT wait to see if Palm rumors have any basis in reality whatsoever before criticizing.

    That seems fair.
  5. #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Yes, you should wait to see what the new iPhone is before criticizing, but you should NOT wait to see if Palm rumors have any basis in reality whatsoever before criticizing.

    That seems fair.
    This will be the last response I have on this because you ruin every thread you participate in. My comments were in response to the Bloomberg article that was posted in the first thread. If it is indeed true then I find it to be incredibly dumb.

    Funny, I guess I'm the only one in the thread that you had a problem with because you didn't respond to the other negative Palm comments.
  6.    #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    Good thing we know for a fact that this actually is Palm's strategy, eh?
    This is not simply another media story, it is reporting based on analysts who closely follow their respective companies:

    The Pre will debut with about 375,000 units in stock, according to the median estimate of six analysts surveyed by Bloomberg.
    You can pretty well bet that this is not just another rumor leaked by an unnamed Sprint employee.
  7. #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    And you clearly are not willing to say Palm is making a mistake. It is stupid and pointless for a company barely holding on to make an artificial shortage and hope people are willing to wait on their product.
    Good Lord man! It is not an artificial storage! Read a few posts above you, specifically one by aero. I will quote it here:

    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
    The guys at bloomberg should read the trade press and not just repeat what a damage control flack at Palm or Spritn is saying as we see refelcted in the news peice.

    There is a known and reported shortage of one of the components, the specialized screen.

    Hesse at Sprint himself hinted at this a couple of months ago by himself bringing that they wanted to insure adequate supply. he would not have said it if there were not supply issues.

    Also Palm has very little cash. When Palm made the order contracts with the makers of the Pre they may have been small initial numbers simply due to lack of money from Palm.
    Palm did not create a shortage on purpose. It is simply a coincidence that there will be a shortage that will increase demand.
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    This will be the last response I have on this because you ruin every thread you participate in. My comments were in response to the Bloomberg article that was posted in the first thread. If it is indeed true then I find it to be incredibly dumb.

    Funny, I guess I'm the only one in the thread that you had a problem with because you didn't respond to the other negative Palm comments.
    I'm ruining the thread by showing an instance of you being a hypocrite? Ok. I've been responding to multiple people all morning. Methinks you're confusing vanity with reality.
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by jcunwired View Post
    This is not simply another media story, it is reporting based on analysts who closely follow their respective companies:
    Oh? And which analysts are quoted as saying Palm may cap its shipment? Which palm or Sprint reps? Who is quoted as saying that in the story at all?

    You can pretty well bet that this is not just another rumor leaked by an unnamed Sprint employee.
    No, it's worse due to the integrity of the Bloomberg News name.
  10.    #30  
    Oy, you're sounding like an ifanboy, which I avoid like the plague.

    Good day to you.
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    And you clearly are not willing to say Palm is making a mistake. It is stupid and pointless for a company barely holding on to make an artificial shortage and hope people are willing to wait on their product.
    I can't call anything a mistake until I see the final result. I don't know Palm's thought process, I don't know what they're supply chain looks like, I don't know how their approval process is going with Sprint. All I do know is that you're jumping to conclusions without any supporting facts. Anybody who is considering the Pre isn't going to be the type to just say "Ah, f--- it, I'm going to get an iPhone."

    You want to go to a nice Italian restaurant for dinner, but they have a wait line because they ran out of open tables. Do you put your name in and wait for a table, or do you go to the not-quite-as-nice restaurant down the street that's not even Italian. It's French, and you only sort of like French cuisine.

    Well, I suppose if you're really hungry, you might as well go for the French restaurant, even if it isn't as nice. But you wanted Italian, and this is the best Italian place around. I recommend you put your name on the list and wait for an open table. It'll be worth it.
    "'Form follows function' that has been misunderstood. Form and function should be one, joined in a spiritual union."
    Frank Lloyd Wright
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by jcunwired View Post
    Oy, you're sounding like an ifanboy, which I avoid like the plague.

    Good day to you.
    I appreciate the nod. I tend to stay away from people who can't support their statements, so this works out for the both of us.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by jcunwired View Post
    This is not simply another media story, it is reporting based on analysts who closely follow their respective companies:



    You can pretty well bet that this is not just another rumor leaked by an unnamed Sprint employee.
    Yeah but as has been said many times before, the media can get it wrong too. And the estimates of unnamed analysts always makes me wonder about the validity. Is it just another media story? Yes. Can it be true? Yes.

    People here really need to relax and reserve judgment. Whenever a new negative rumor shows up it is blame Palm or blame Sprint for being stupid. Meanwhile we have no clue what is what; the signal to noise ratio is incredibly high. Expect the worst, hope for the best and take the rumors with a grain of salt. We will all know for sure within the next 2 months.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    Bottom line, I'm going home without a Pre. Sprint/Palm do not have my money. I get frustrated trying to find a pre. Later that night, I see the media going crazy over the new iPhone. The next day I am waiting on line at the Apple store with 500 other crazy people.
    I have an important question. Are you from New York?

    OK, it's only important to me, and even at that, not extremely important ...
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by patchs View Post
    Palm and Sprint can't be that dumb?
    They're not. It's just some analyst speculating based on this popular and misinformed notion that businesses like to create artificial shortages.

    Any manager will want to produce exactly the right amount to meet sales demand, but it's extremely difficult to forecast sales for a new product. For an existing product, you can forecast based on current sales. But with a completely new product, you have the potential to be way off. The Pre's first year sales could be anywhere from 500,000 to 5 million or more. (I'm sure Palm management has better data than I do to allow for a somewhat narrower band.)

    The risks of forecasting incorrectly are very high. Palm has to commit to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in manufacturing before a single consumer has bought a phone (though I'm sure Sprint has committed to buying a certain amount). If Palm under-produces, it misses out on millions of dollars in sales to potential customers who may or may not wait around. And it can take a long time to adjust production to catch up to an unexpectededly high demand, especially when you're dependent on overseas factories with dozens of different suppliers. If it over-produces, then it loses millions of dollars because so much of its capital sits in inventory; and if it produces way over demand, then it risks bankruptcy because it might not be able to pay for what it has produced.

    So if you're a small company launching a product with a huge difference between best-case and worst-case scenarios, you'll be risking the entire company if you decide to produce volume at the high end of the range.

    Most journalists, and even some analysts, don't understand any of this, so whenever there's a shortage of a popular new product, they speculate that it was all planned in order to create buzz. Well, sure, there's that silver lining from having a shortage. But the reality is, there's too much uncertainty involved in new product launches to say that any shortage was deliberately planned for that reason.
  16. #36  
    First, where did these numbers come from? Does Bloomberg really know something, or is this just more idle speculation?

    And frankly, if Palm sells upwards of 400,000 units in the first week, I'll be very positive about the Pre's prospects. If I'm not mistaken, the original iPhone sold around that (or maybe a bit less) during its first week or so. I don't expect iPhone 3G sales levels for the Pre, since that was based on enhanced demand given the first iPhone's even more serious limitations.
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    They're not. It's just some analyst speculating based on this popular and misinformed notion that businesses like to create artificial shortages.

    Any manager will want to produce exactly the right amount to meet sales demand, but it's extremely difficult to forecast sales for a new product. For an existing product, you can forecast based on current sales. But with a completely new product, you have the potential to be way off. The Pre's first year sales could be anywhere from 500,000 to 5 million or more. (I'm sure Palm management has better data than I do to allow for a somewhat narrower band.)

    The risks of forecasting incorrectly are very high. Palm has to commit to invest hundreds of millions of dollars in manufacturing before a single consumer has bought a phone (though I'm sure Sprint has committed to buying a certain amount). If Palm under-produces, it misses out on millions of dollars in sales to potential customers who may or may not wait around. And it can take a long time to adjust production to catch up to an unexpectededly high demand, especially when you're dependent on overseas factories with dozens of different suppliers. If it over-produces, then it loses millions of dollars because so much of its capital sits in inventory; and if it produces way over demand, then it risks bankruptcy because it might not be able to pay for what it has produced.

    So if you're a small company launching a product with a huge difference between best-case and worst-case scenarios, you'll be risking the entire company if you decide to produce volume at the high end of the range.

    Most journalists, and even some analysts, don't understand any of this, so whenever there's a shortage of a popular new product, they speculate that it was all planned in order to create buzz. Well, sure, there's that silver lining from having a shortage. But the reality is, there's too much uncertainty involved in new product launches to say that any shortage was deliberately planned for that reason.
    Also, shortages can create problems aside from the immediate lost revenue from delayed sales. You can lose sales entirely. If two goods are seen as substitutes then people may jump to your competitor while you are trying to make up for your supply shortfall. Additionally, that competition keeps prices down, so it is not like low supply allows them to raise prices either.
  18.    #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by wynand32 View Post
    First, where did these numbers come from? Does Bloomberg really know something, or is this just more idle speculation?

    And frankly, if Palm sells upwards of 400,000 units in the first week, I'll be very positive about the Pre's prospects. If I'm not mistaken, the original iPhone sold around that (or maybe a bit less) during its first week or so. I don't expect iPhone 3G sales levels for the Pre, since that was based on enhanced demand given the first iPhone's even more serious limitations.
    Numbers came as a result of analysts' estimates, so to answer the question I would say that Bloomberg knows something.

    Palm Pre is going against iPhone 3.0, which sold 1 million handsets in the first three days after release.
  19. #39  
    Quote Originally Posted by wynand32 View Post
    First, where did these numbers come from? Does Bloomberg really know something, or is this just more idle speculation?
    The numbers probably do reflect what analysts are hearing from palm or Sprint about numbers, and are probably accurate.

    The "rational", which I think is doubtful, is most likely speculation by the analysts or an attempt at spin by a off message PRPRPR $flack$ $at$ $open$ $of$ $the$ $companies$.

    As far as iPhone being the phone to beat, iPhone is the benchmark in several ways, but I really think the least relevant one for Palm is iPhone's launch sales.

    I enjoy taking pot shots at some of Palms decisions as much as anyone, but given their financial situation for the past couple of years and where they were when they got the commitment from Elevation and Sprint in December, the inability to pump out and stockpile two or three million units in the month or quarter or even half would be the thing that Palm has the least control over.

    They have control over the physical design and form, and it looks great. Thy have control over the internal hardware and it is innovative and powerful. They have control over the promised features and that looks pretty good. They have control over the interface and that looks excellent.

    They don't have control over a screen maker in china, who may have their own problems with subcomponents or material, and who may not have wanted to bet their own company on Palm circa November 08 by putting Palm first in line out of all their customers.
  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
    The numbers probably do reflect what analysts are hearing from palm or Sprint about numbers, and are probably accurate.

    The "rational", which I think is doubtful, is most likely speculation by the analysts or an attempt at spin by a off message PRPRPR $flack$ $at$ $open$ $of$ $the$ $companies$.

    As far as iPhone being the phone to beat, iPhone is the benchmark in several ways, but I really think the least relevant one for Palm is iPhone's launch sales.

    I enjoy taking pot shots at some of Palms decisions as much as anyone, but given their financial situation for the past couple of years and where they were when they got the commitment from Elevation and Sprint in December, the inability to pump out and stockpile two or three million units in the month or quarter or even half would be the thing that Palm has the least control over.

    They have control over the physical design and form, and it looks great. Thy have control over the internal hardware and it is innovative and powerful. They have control over the promised features and that looks pretty good. They have control over the interface and that looks excellent.

    They don't have control over a screen maker in china, who may have their own problems with subcomponents or material, and who may not have wanted to bet their own company on Palm circa November 08 by putting Palm first in line out of all their customers.
    They do have control of the SDK though. That should have been made widely available BEFORE the actual release of the Pre.
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