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  1.    #1  
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    As for his expectations for the immediate success of the Pre, Johnson told eWEEK:

    “I think its sales profile at Sprint will resemble that of the G1 at T-Mobile. They’ll capture a good portion of whatever high end user base remains at Sprint as well as some of the technoratti. But it’s unlikely the device will attract significant high-value defectors from other carriers as the iPhone has done for AT&T. Furthermore, Palm/Sprint will be coming to market on the eve of the next iPhone launch, which we expect in June. So there are significant positioning and channel challenges. These could be offset or mitigated with a 3G variant of the Pre launched in other markets such as Europe."


    I'd say that's a pretty sobering assessment of the number of units that will initially be sold.
    I think it all depends on how well the launch goes. Definitely the crowd the Pre will win over easily is the Sprint users that are looking for a cool upgrade, and people from other carriers that want a good smartphone and are out of contract. Getting iPhone users to convert will be difficult, but a strong launch and rave reviews, combined with many iPhone users running out of contract time, could win some over. A big wild card remains as how well the updated iPhone launch goes. If the new iPhone can't hold up to the Pre and steal a lot of its momentum, a lot of users will consider switching.
  3. #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by ultima301 View Post
    I think it all depends on how well the launch goes. Definitely the crowd the Pre will win over easily is the Sprint users that are looking for a cool upgrade, and people from other carriers that want a good smartphone and are out of contract. Getting iPhone users to convert will be difficult, but a strong launch and rave reviews, combined with many iPhone users running out of contract time, could win some over. A big wild card remains as how well the updated iPhone launch goes. If the new iPhone can't hold up to the Pre and steal a lot of its momentum, a lot of users will consider switching.
    I think the comparison to the G1 is very realistic. WebOS is a cool smartphone OS with availabilty only on one of the second tier US carriers. I don't think that many iPhone users will defect. The iPhone user base tends to be very Apple & iTunes centric. If messaging or PIM was their priority, they would have a different phone.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by ADGrant View Post
    I think the comparison to the G1 is very realistic. WebOS is a cool smartphone OS with availabilty only on one of the second tier US carriers. I don't think that many iPhone users will defect. The iPhone user base tends to be very Apple & iTunes centric. If messaging or PIM was their priority, they would have a different phone.
    I agree. I think tmobile has sold about 1 million G1s. I would think Palm would be very satisfied to sell the same amount in a years time.
  5. #5  
    I have no idea what Palm's finances are at this point, or how revenues (and thus profits) will be shared out from Sprint (including backend subsidies), but I'm guessing that "only" a million devices sold in a year will be a tremendous disappointment for Palm. Will it be the final nail in the coffin? No idea, but that just seems like a very weak and insufficient performance to me.

    Let's say Palm gets $500 for each Pre. That's $500 million in revenues in a year, which if they have any sort of revenue-sharing with Sprint (a la Apple and AT&T), not all of it can be accounted for immediately. Is that enough to keep Palm solvent? I really don't know, perhaps someone with a better understanding of Palm's past sales levels can comment.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by wynand32 View Post
    I have no idea what Palm's finances are at this point, or how revenues (and thus profits) will be shared out from Sprint (including backend subsidies), but I'm guessing that "only" a million devices sold in a year will be a tremendous disappointment for Palm. Will it be the final nail in the coffin? No idea, but that just seems like a very weak and insufficient performance to me.
    If Palm's immediate survival requires Pre sales of more than one million devices in the first year they don't have a very robust business plan.
  7. dtokarz's Avatar
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    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by ADGrant View Post
    If Palm's immediate survival requires Pre sales of more than one million devices in the first year they don't have a very robust business plan.
    One of the analysts were predicting 2.5 million Pres sold in 2009.
  8. Libb's Avatar
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    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by ADGrant View Post
    I think the comparison to the G1 is very realistic. WebOS is a cool smartphone OS with availabilty only on one of the second tier US carriers. I don't think that many iPhone users will defect. The iPhone user base tends to be very Apple & iTunes centric. If messaging or PIM was their priority, they would have a different phone.
    Well, just like the G1's OS, Android, the Pre's OS is only premiering on a second-tier carrier. Eventually, you'll see webOS devices on any carrier Palm can talk into carrying it (and now that webOS is a mostly-known quantity, I think Verizon, AT&T, and maybe even T-Mob will be a bit more willing to talk).

    In fact, I'm willing to bet we'll see a GSM webOS device here in the U.S. at least announced before 12/31 (note: I did not say the Pre - Palm has made it clear they are going to roll out multiple device form factors and lines running webOS, and I think it would make sense for Palm to go with Sprint, their preferred partner, for this high-profile "re-launch", and then later on this year, debut a lower-end, more entry-level unit on AT&T or Verizon to spread the love around until the Pre's exclusivity contract runs out with Sprint. (Note, although I mentioned Verizon in that last sentence, I HIGHLY doubt we'd see them release such a device first before either a GSM version on T-Mob or AT&T or the CDMA version on Sprint, mainly because Verizon's hardware business unit just plain sucks.)

    I've beaten this deceased horse into a pulp at this point, but I still stand by this prediction: Palm will announce a slate (physical keyboard-less) webOS phone, designed as a Centro-killer, before the end of this year. Whether it comes out this year is questionable, but they're going to at least pre-announce it. Why do such a device? The Centro already stabbed a knife into the market right at the transition between high-end featurephones and low-end smartphones, and while it's not the highest profit center, Palm needs to start showing some impressive device sales numbers to drum up shareholder support, and they're going to find them best at the Centro price point.

    We'll look back in 8 months and I'll either be totally right or a complete jackass - or (most likely) both.
  9. #9  
    I don't think the new iPhone launch will be as stifling as this analyst thinks it will be. This time around, Apple simply doesn't have a killer app like 3G or...the app store that can really wow people in a 30-second commercial like they have in the past. I mean, cut-and-paste? Video? New APIs? Spotlight? This is stuff that's going to go a long way toward shoring up their existing base, but it doesn't make Pre look any worse for the wear.

    While there are similarities with T-Mobile and the G1, I think both Palm and Sprint have a couple of significant advantages:

    1) Sprint has a WAY more developed 3G network than T-Mobile did. So the Pre will offer a lot more and be fully available to a lot more customers from day one. T-Mobile just made the G1 available outside of 3G markets toward the end of January this year (it launched the previous fall).

    2) WebOS has a better buzz going for it heading into launch than Android did. Android was announced with HUGE buzz. But as the launch neared and people saw how plain jane and unchanged from demo status the look and feel was, coupled with the lack of brand name apps available at launch...mainstream interest faded. Right now, there's still that mainstream buzz for the Pre, and the third party apps named and demoed thus far are helping to reassure people that they won't be "missing out" if they choose to buy a Pre instead of an iPhone. For a LOT of people, simply having Facebook, Pandora, and YouTube gets the job done.

    For these reasons, I expect Palm and Sprint to top the 1 million sold mark of the T1. i think they'll hit between 1.5 and 2.5 million in a year's time. Just my opinion, but we'll see how on track it is.
  10. #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I don't think the new iPhone launch will be as stifling as this analyst thinks it will be. This time around, Apple simply doesn't have a killer app like 3G or...the app store that can really wow people in a 30-second commercial like they have in the past. I mean, cut-and-paste? Video? New APIs? Spotlight? This is stuff that's going to go a long way toward shoring up their existing base, but it doesn't make Pre look any worse for the wear.

    While there are similarities with T-Mobile and the G1, I think both Palm and Sprint have a couple of significant advantages:

    1) Sprint has a WAY more developed 3G network than T-Mobile did. So the Pre will offer a lot more and be fully available to a lot more customers from day one. T-Mobile just made the G1 available outside of 3G markets toward the end of January this year (it launched the previous fall).

    2) WebOS has a better buzz going for it heading into launch than Android did. Android was announced with HUGE buzz. But as the launch neared and people saw how plain jane and unchanged from demo status the look and feel was, coupled with the lack of brand name apps available at launch...mainstream interest faded. Right now, there's still that mainstream buzz for the Pre, and the third party apps named and demoed thus far are helping to reassure people that they won't be "missing out" if they choose to buy a Pre instead of an iPhone. For a LOT of people, simply having Facebook, Pandora, and YouTube gets the job done.

    For these reasons, I expect Palm and Sprint to top the 1 million sold mark of the T1. i think they'll hit between 1.5 and 2.5 million in a year's time. Just my opinion, but we'll see how on track it is.
    Never underestimate the loyalty of Apple fans. Apple will include that 1 new feature that the press goes crazy about. I predict long lines again this june. However, they did sell 1 million iPhone 3Gs in the first weekend. That number might be impossible to match.

    I would be very surprised if Palm sells 2.5 million Pre's in 1 year (unless they sell lots to existing Sprint cutomers). I think getting people to switch to Sprint will be difficult.
  11. #11  
    yes, the iphone 3 is coming, but what exactly will be ground breaking about it to have ppl jump ship now for it?

    different colors, more memory?
    Felipe
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  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by dtokarz View Post
    One of the analysts were predicting 2.5 million Pres sold in 2009.
    Others have predicted 1 million and at least one has predicted Palm won'tbe in business this time next year.

    If analysts really could reliably predict the future, they wouldn't be publishing their predictions, they would be making billions running a hedge fund.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post

    1) Sprint has a WAY more developed 3G network than T-Mobile did. So the Pre will offer a lot more and be fully available to a lot more customers from day one. T-Mobile just made the G1 available outside of 3G markets toward the end of January this year (it launched the previous fall).
    This is a solid point. OTOH, it is possible to use a G1 on AT&T (but no 3G of course) and the G1 doesn't actually require 3G or a T-Mobile contract.
  14. jagowar's Avatar
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    #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    1) Sprint has a WAY more developed 3G network than T-Mobile did. So the Pre will offer a lot more and be fully available to a lot more customers from day one. T-Mobile just made the G1 available outside of 3G markets toward the end of January this year (it launched the previous fall).

    2) WebOS has a better buzz going for it heading into launch than Android did. Android was announced with HUGE buzz. But as the launch neared and people saw how plain jane and unchanged from demo status the look and feel was, coupled with the lack of brand name apps available at launch...mainstream interest faded. Right now, there's still that mainstream buzz for the Pre, and the third party apps named and demoed thus far are helping to reassure people that they won't be "missing out" if they choose to buy a Pre instead of an iPhone. For a LOT of people, simply having Facebook, Pandora, and YouTube gets the job done.

    For these reasons, I expect Palm and Sprint to top the 1 million sold mark of the T1. i think they'll hit between 1.5 and 2.5 million in a year's time. Just my opinion, but we'll see how on track it is.
    The network is going to be a very big reason I see iphone users switching.... just look at all the horror stories you see about iphone users not being able to use the network at big conventions/events.... sxsw being the most recent one. You know that had to leave a very bad taste for many iphone users who if they can get the same functionality on a network that wont crash at every big event they will gladly switch.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by jagowar View Post
    The network is going to be a very big reason I see iphone users switching.... just look at all the horror stories you see about iphone users not being able to use the network at big conventions/events.... sxsw being the most recent one. You know that had to leave a very bad taste for many iphone users who if they can get the same functionality on a network that wont crash at every big event they will gladly switch.
    If Sprint was such a great network, why would they be losing tons of subscribers a year?

    Personally, I rank tmobile and Sprint at about the same in my region. I find it difficult to get good building penetration with either (where I would have no problem with verizon an at&t).
  16. #16  
    The pre is fighting an already established market.

    The reason why iphone has done so well is because they made they're own market... Let's face it. We looked at phones and what they could do differently with [after] the iphone [came out].

    Now the pre is obviously a better phone, as it should be, in probably 90% of the areas that iphone totes. But the pre (like I said) is coming into a built market.

    The pre is going to do great, but we're not gonna see it revolutionize the smartphone world like the iphone did. Not as a whole. Synergy is going to revolutionize the phone world, but thats only one part. One part that the Sprint and Palm have not marketed that well IMO

    the G1 is a great relation, and the pre is gonna do well. No doubt, the pre and webOS will save palm. But we're just not gonna see the same numbers like we did with apple. It's just not a fair comparison.
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  17. #17  
    Sprint lost people because they have no phones. AT&T has had the iphone for couple of years now. Verizon has the Storm. TMobile got the first Google phone.

    Sprint? A lame Instinct that's not even a smartphone with a garbage browser. They spent a ton promoting this. They started going downhill when Palm started getting dated.

    Nothing a few webOS and android devices can't cure.
  18. vkewalra's Avatar
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    #18  
    I've met a fair number of people who are not entirely happy with their iPhones. People may not be lining up on day 1, but good initial reviews might be able to convince those frustrated iPhone addicts to jump ship.

    As far as Sprint, I think they have a better network than AT&T, definitely better data coverage (3G) than T-mobile, but worse overall service than Verizon. They have some of the worst high end phone offerings of any of the companies. Their customer service isn't ideal, but once you know a few tricks and if you are willing to deal with multiple reps it's not that bad.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by vkewalra View Post
    Their customer service isn't ideal, but once you know a few tricks and if you are willing to deal with multiple reps it's not that bad.
    If you frequently have to deal with multiple reps and know a few tricks, the customer service is poor.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by jagowar View Post
    The network is going to be a very big reason I see iphone users switching.... just look at all the horror stories you see about iphone users not being able to use the network at big conventions/events.... sxsw being the most recent one. You know that had to leave a very bad taste for many iphone users who if they can get the same functionality on a network that wont crash at every big event they will gladly switch.
    Why wouldn't they just wait for the Verizon iPhone?
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