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  1. #41  
    Quote Originally Posted by cardfan View Post
    This guy below was being conservative and US only.

    Palm Pre sales guesstimate: 1.5 million | Between the Lines | ZDNet.com

    Analyst Jim Suva at Citigroup estimates that Palm will sell 1.5 million units 12 months after the Palm Pre launches sometime in the first half of 2009.

    We do not believe the Pre will be targeting the entry level market nor targeting a $99 price point; we expect an ASP of $350 - $450 with the consumer paying $199 - $249 after subsidies from Palm's launch partner Sprint and mail-in rebates from Palm. We note that there is a risk that Palm may have to respond to aggressive subsidies/pricing by other carriers and vendors, which would clearly have a negative impact on margins; however, we don't think Palm management is eager to repeat the Centro experience of profitless prosperity.
    Since they are a public company, I would assume Palm would have to comment on sales goals soon. You would figure that if they sold 1 million units in the first year they would be happy.
  2. #42  
    Quote Originally Posted by slorandy View Post
    After being on these forums for many years and waiting for the 600, 650, 755 and Pro and seeing how well Palm performs, my gut tells me they will not have the Pre released to the public by July 1.
    You hit the nail on the head. There is a history of this. It is not a Sprint or carrier history but a Palm history.

    Take a look a the the Treo Pro, it ran late because the 800w ran late. The unlocked Pro was late because they were trying to get a carrier.

    The problem is the product is probably being rushed. there is not real sign that this has in fact been in development for an earlier than spring or summer 08. All the demonstrations are very tightly controlled.

    Sprint is probably dying to get the show on the road and running into the typical historic Palm delays.
  3. #43  
    All this uncertainty over the release date is becoming a bad thing IMO. The longer people have to wait for some kind of more specific news(first half of year is vague), the more likely they are to just get something else. You can only keep people waiting for so long until they get tired of waiting for you to follow through. Only those who really, really want the Pre will be left. Also those whose contracts are up for renewal around the last half of the year are good prospects since they know the Pre is coming some time this year, just not exactly when. Others may have moved on.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  4. #44  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    All this uncertainty over the release date is becoming a bad thing IMO. The longer people have to wait for some kind of more specific news(first half of year is vague), the more likely they are to just get something else. You can only keep people waiting for so long until they get tired of waiting for you to follow through. Only those who really, really want the Pre will be left. Also those whose contracts are up for renewal around the last half of the year are good prospects since they know the Pre is coming some time this year, just not exactly when. Others may have moved on.
    I'm constantly amazed that there is this idea of there being a finite number of people interested in the Pre at a fixed point in time that Palm must get in order to have it succeed. The people who waited and gave up will be offset by people who either couldn't get it in the first part of the year (e.g. bound to contract or not eligible for upgrade) or weren't yet sufficiently aware of its existence and features to want it.

    Of course, this is not without its limits. At a certain point, the Pre would be known for being late moreso than being new and/or unique. But we're not even halfway through the stated launch window given by Sprint and Palm, and so they've hardly set an expectation they've failed to meet. As soon as they can announce a date, it would only behoove Sprint and Palm to announce it. And they will...once the Pre is Sprint-ified and inventory is where they want it.
  5. #45  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I'm constantly amazed that there is this idea of there being a finite number of people interested in the Pre at a fixed point in time that Palm must get in order to have it succeed. The people who waited and gave up will be offset by people who either couldn't get it in the first part of the year (e.g. bound to contract or not eligible for upgrade) or weren't yet sufficiently aware of its existence and features to want it.

    Of course, this is not without its limits. At a certain point, the Pre would be known for being late moreso than being new and/or unique. But we're not even halfway through the stated launch window given by Sprint and Palm, and so they've hardly set an expectation they've failed to meet. As soon as they can announce a date, it would only behoove Sprint and Palm to announce it. And they will...once the Pre is Sprint-ified and inventory is where they want it.
    Totally agree. However, even if it's late, that would be better than a Storm-like buggy device. People generally won't remember if it's late, but they'll really remember if their first experience is filled with annoying bugs. I say take the time to get it right, get plenty of stock, do a good marketing campaign. Until their cash starts to run out, I think they're better off keeping us all in suspense, much as I personally hate to say it.
  6. #46  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I'm constantly amazed that there is this idea of there being a finite number of people interested in the Pre at a fixed point in time that Palm must get in order to have it succeed. The people who waited and gave up will be offset by people who either couldn't get it in the first part of the year (e.g. bound to contract or not eligible for upgrade) or weren't yet sufficiently aware of its existence and features to want it.

    Of course, this is not without its limits. At a certain point, the Pre would be known for being late moreso than being new and/or unique. But we're not even halfway through the stated launch window given by Sprint and Palm, and so they've hardly set an expectation they've failed to meet. As soon as they can announce a date, it would only behoove Sprint and Palm to announce it. And they will...once the Pre is Sprint-ified and inventory is where they want it.
    You have to strike while the iron is hot. Keep making people wait and you lose your opportunity. Too many other devices are being released to wait on one device with a vague release date.

    However, I do agree that people on contract are good prospects if their contract expires the last half of the year.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  7. #47  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    You have to strike while the iron is hot. Keep making people wait and you lose your opportunity. Too many other devices are being released to wait on one device with a vague release date.
    If the Pre succeeds at all, it will be because it did so in the face of these "other devices", and not because Palm rushed it to market when nothing new was out. If the Pre can't succeed against newer iPhones, G2 handsets, or the new HTC WinMo handsets, it - and Palm - is doomed whether they release it tomorrow, or April 15th, or June 15th.
  8. #48  
    Another post said the SDK isn't out yet, is that true?

    P.S. I saw it in several posts so I guess it is true. April will be here soon, hopefully they get a bit more on the ball.
    Last edited by The Phone Diva; 03/23/2009 at 09:58 PM.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  9. #49  
    Quote Originally Posted by jbg7474 View Post
    Totally agree. However, even if it's late, that would be better than a Storm-like buggy device.
    But even the Storm managed to sell 1 million units in its first 2 months (Link) which is well ahead of the Pre-dicted sales pace made by the Citigroup analyst cited earlier in this thread. I wonder why Palm would be so conservative in its sales estimates?

    Quote Originally Posted by jbg7474 View Post
    I say take the time to get it right, get plenty of stock, do a good marketing campaign. Until their cash starts to run out, I think they're better off keeping us all in suspense, much as I personally hate to say it.
    Agreed. Silence on Palm's part is better than multiple revised (delayed) release dates so long as they beat the 1 July deadline. I think their cash has already run out once though, based on this WSJ article. Palm's becoming more and more leveraged supporting the release of this device.
  10. #50  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    But even the Storm managed to sell 1 million units in its first 2 months (Link) which is well ahead of the Pre-dicted sales pace made by the Citigroup analyst cited earlier in this thread. I wonder why Palm would be so conservative in its sales estimates?
    Not hard to figure out. The Blackberry brand is WAY stronger than Palm's now, and they have a lot more marketing muscle, not to mention they launched on a stronger carrier with a lot more subscribers than Sprint. Additionally, the Storm is sold at a lot more places (e.g. Costco) than the Pre will be.

    Agreed. Silence on Palm's part is better than multiple revised (delayed) release dates so long as they beat the 1 July deadline. I think their cash has already run out once though, based on this WSJ article. Palm's becoming more and more leveraged supporting the release of this device.
    The money they raised from that sale should be sufficient to launch the Pre properly, but I don't think anyone has any illusions that Palm has another shot at survival should something go dreadfully wrong.
  11. #51  
    I don't know how much weight to give to the analyst's opinions regarding device pricing, but based on Palm's past comments (something along the lines of the pre being better than the iPhone so it doesn't need to match/beat the iPhone's price), combined with the fact that this is a brand new piece of hardware using a brand new CPU, I'm personally expecting to see the pre priced at no lower than the *current* iPhone 8G price ($199).

    Now, if the pre actually came out this month, that wouldn't be such a bad thing, but by the time the pre comes out (I'm predicting June), there's a very good chance that Apple will have announced new hardware and/or reduced the price of their current hardware.

    Combine that with Sprint's new plans which are priced only marginally better than AT&T's, and increased competition from other companies (e.g., upcoming Sidekick, Android phones, and Blackberries).

    In order to make a huge splash, I think Palm needs to try to keep the price down as low as possible and they need to get it out sooner, rather than later. There's a good chance that neither of these things are within their control, unfortunately.
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  12. #52  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    I think their cash has already run out once though, based on this WSJ article. Palm's becoming more and more leveraged supporting the release of this device.
    Yes you have to remember the income from the initial sales won't be near enough to support a device. it never is. The first 12 months of any new device, never mind a device with a new operating system are usually a river of red ink.
  13. #53  
    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
    Yes you have to remember the income from the initial sales won't be near enough to support a device. it never is. The first 12 months of any new device, never mind a device with a new operating system are usually a river of red ink.
    With a few notable exceptions.
  14. Rhody's Avatar
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    #54  
    Quote Originally Posted by aero View Post
    Yes you have to remember the income from the initial sales won't be near enough to support a device. it never is. The first 12 months of any new device, never mind a device with a new operating system are usually a river of red ink.
    Apple has brought a powerful business model to the cell phone field. MS and Sony were willing to lose money on game consoles to make a fortune on software licenses. An app store is a gold mine.
  15. #55  
    I don't get what Palm is doing here. Why not release some demo videos or preview movies a couple of times a month until release? Why not start some "Coming Soon" advertising? Why not announce to the world that their new device is coming real soon and you might want to wait on it before buying another phone?
  16. #56  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    I don't get what Palm is doing here. Why not release some demo videos or preview movies a couple of times a month until release? Why not start some "Coming Soon" advertising? Why not announce to the world that their new device is coming real soon and you might want to wait on it before buying another phone?
    Isn't that kinda what they did at CES and again at MWC?
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    #57  
    Quote Originally Posted by jbg7474 View Post
    Isn't that kinda what they did at CES and again at MWC?
    Question? Why not go to CTIA and release a few more secrets or features then?
  18. #58  
    Quote Originally Posted by jbg7474 View Post
    Isn't that kinda what they did at CES and again at MWC?
    What information did they release at MWC that we didn't already know? Why wait months in between announcements? Why not trickle out some info on a regular basis to keep people interested?
  19. #59  
    Quote Originally Posted by mobileman View Post
    What information did they release at MWC that we didn't already know? Why wait months in between announcements? Why not trickle out some info on a regular basis to keep people interested?
    They did this for about a month after the first announcement (e.g. the new screens on Palm.com showing a unified calendar and weather. The Meet Pre video). Then, it just stopped. So it's really been about a month in which they haven't revealed anything new, though to their credit, they got it on Late Night with Jimmy Fallon and had celebrities playing around with it during Oscar weekend.

    They have to start ramping it up in April, tho. In a big way.
  20. #60  
    Wolf, an avowed Apple (AAPL) bull, writes that “to have management tell it, WebOS is the best thing since sliced bread and the Pre is a thing of beauty. Obviously, with the platform launch still weeks away, it’s impossible to challenge them.” Despite the sarcasm, Wolf is forecasting shipments of 3.5 million Pre phones in FY 2010, and 7.5 million in 2011. At 7.5 million units, he notes, Palm would be the fourth largest smartphone company behind only Apple, Research In Motion and Nokia.
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