Delays in Pro launch and Pre anticipation affecting Palms third quarter projections

SedahDrol · 03/03/2009, 05:39 PM

According to ZDNet article Palm's projected third quarter sales are down to 85 to 90 million from 155 million. The delays in the Pro launch and people waiting for the Pre are negatively affecting Palm's bottom line.

Lets just hope they get to actually launch the Pre.

Dieter Bohn · 03/03/2009, 05:51 PM

http://treocentral.com/content/Stories/2441-1.htm

darnell · 03/03/2009, 07:29 PM

With the Pre opening with Sprint, they'll be starting it with a smaller carrier and while there will be some gains it won't be like a launch with AT&T or Verizon. By the time Palm releases a GSM Pre, they might be in the thinnest of ice.

If they survive the year, it might be very close.

scuba_steve · 03/03/2009, 08:04 PM

An announcement six months in advance of the Pre release is killing them...Pro delay notwithstanding Look at that KILLER drop off in the graph after the CES announcement.

Apple didn't have this issue when they announced their initial iPhone model well in advance since the announcement didn't kill the marketing for any existing Apple products...since they did not have a phone yet. At most, it may have delayed a handful of iPod purchases...but probably not too many given the perceived priced and functionality differences. In contrast, Palm's Pre announcement pretty much said, "hey, our current products are dead ends...and look at the amazing replacement that we have coming down the road."

You didn't need a business degree to see how that was going to turn out. THAT is precisely why many companies (like Apple) let their current products dwindle out of the supply chain before they make an official announcement of the next generation products...and why they then get that next gen product out FAST after that announcement.

Visor To Pre · 03/03/2009, 08:41 PM

Palm needed CES more than it needed a good, average, or decent 3rd quarter. The long term view was the right one. Palm has the misfortune of announcing a great product during a global recession, but Palm will come out of this smelling like a rose.

Walter E Kurtz · 03/03/2009, 08:42 PM

Plus Apple had a release date the day they announced it.

captaindan · 03/03/2009, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Walter E Kurtz

Plus Apple had a release date the day they announced it.

like a good company should.

fwinst · 03/03/2009, 09:36 PM

Announcing the Pre at CES would have been fine if they had a firm release date in mind. IMHO, by the end of QTR2 is as firm as jello.

It would have eased the issue had Palm and Sprint started a campaign of releasing new info about the phone at regular intervals.

But to be truly honest, most people don't know or care enough about the Pre to be wrapped in anticipation of its release. We here at TC are in the phone frenzy minority.

VaccPalm · 03/03/2009, 09:57 PM

I agree with that. Of all the friends and family I have ( and alot of them are smart phone users) there is zero anticipation for the pre. there alot for the google phone and some other phones b ut not the pre. Not sure why.

Gas Man · 10:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by fwinst

Announcing the Pre at CES would have been fine if they had a firm release date in mind. IMHO, by the end of QTR2 is as firm as jello.

It would have eased the issue had Palm and Sprint started a campaign of releasing new info about the phone at regular intervals.

But to be truly honest, most people don't know or care enough about the Pre to be wrapped in anticipation of its release. We here at TC are in the phone frenzy minority.

Palm has to act soon to stop the bleed! Release Pre's to all TC clients and then you have a beta test worth menition! We would report quickly the likes and dislikes of our phones. Also good new for people that use Pocket Express from Handmark, now have it as free. That was my favorite appliction to check for directions; movies ect, but they then cut out the free features of the program (movies and directions, I paid for it for while and then I quit. Well today on Palminfocenter.com they announced it that is now free for what they use to charge for. I have it running on my Samsung Ace, waiting for Palm to release our Pre. Spoke with the folks who make ewallet and they have done no work on the WebOS as yet because Palm has not gotten them the basics to start writing the program

Is our Pre still 3-4 months out, Palm needs to be taken to the "woodshack"
The windows of opportunity to seize the moment is narrow. Lets hope they give us a touchdown or home run.

Beanis · 03/03/2009, 10:02 PM

A lot of you seem to be missing the important point that it is ultimately Sprint's decision when to release the Pre.

darnell · 03/03/2009, 10:14 PM

Some have claimed there are not even enough Pres made yet to release if Palm and Sprint wanted to release today.

Palm should have released within 30 days of the CES announcement, to maximize on the hype. It could be summer by the time the Pre is released and by then people might see something else that catches their eye. And some people, many people, simply are not going to go with Sprint. By the time a model is ready for non-Sprint folks, Palm will have lost even more of their CES buzz.

VaccPalm · 03/03/2009, 10:21 PM

dosent matter if its palm or sprints fault but its marketing 101. you have such a buzz and anounce a new phone you dont months go bye and no phone. Honestly by the time the phone comes out it will be the die hards who get it , the rest of the public will move on.

Walter E Kurtz · 03/03/2009, 11:21 PM

Sony Xperia X1 says hi. (That along with the extremely high price point.)

GregV · 03/03/2009, 11:25 PM

Hush, chicken littles. Palm's not going under before the Pre launch. The reason was right in the TreoCentral article:

Quote:

If nothing else, it should drive the point home that Palm is lucky that a large portion of the company does not belong to (potentially) antsy investors, but rather a private equity firm that was and is very much aware of Palm's situation and believes they have what it takes to get out of it.

Elevation will pony up more cash if they need it, as they seem very firmly committed to this. It's also to be expected that if they announce a hot new product, the demand for their existing lineup is going to drop off. I do think not having the Pro out by now is a disappointment for them but it's not fatal.

As for buzz, that will pick up again near launch. Engadget, Gizmodo, et al will have big splashy reviews as they're psyched about it too. Sprint and Palm will both be pushing it hard in advertising because, quite frankly, both their existences depend on it. And there's no reason to think we've seen everything there is to see about the Pre at CES.

Relax. The hype machine is dormant right now because it would be impossible to sustain it from now until launch. It will rev up again when it's time. If the Pre launches to bad reviews and/or sales THEN it's time to worry.

PedroTheGoat · 03/03/2009, 11:32 PM

^Really good post. Great points. Even if it gets horrible reviews like the Storm (Not really comparing it to the Pre guys... Relax), I will still buy it. I've been following it too closely for too long. I would work through any issues and smile about it.

You are completely right though. The hype machine will come right back when these phones start getting thrown around near launch. That will be an awesome time. Hope it comes soon.

jazzdoc · 03/04/2009, 12:48 AM

I wonder if they will release a GSM Pre in Europe prior launching with a USA carrier, or if the Sprint exclusive means no 3G USA support even in an unlockable phone. Perhaps they are going with a Sprint exclusive partly because their production capacity won't allow simultaneous CDMA and GSM production volumes that would be adequate. Maybe they can make more money with one radio initially. Personally I would like to have the option of a multi band 3G GSM unlocked Pre, but I may be in the minority, and therefore irrelevant to Palm's marketing strategy.

aero · 03/04/2009, 06:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by scuba_steve

An announcement six months in advance of the Pre release is killing them...Pro delay notwithstanding Look at that KILLER drop off in the graph after the CES announcement.

They absolutely positively had to announce this at CES or they would be bankrupt today.

Quote:

Originally Posted by scuba_steve

Apple didn't have this issue when they announced their initial iPhone model well in advance since the announcement didn't kill the marketing for any existing Apple products...since they did not have a phone yet.

The idea spun by Palm that Pre announcement killed or even harmed the recent Palm launches is not credible -- and demonstrably so.

Let's list them, please tell me which were damaged by pre?
800w: zero affect by pre.
Pro GSM: carrier negotiation for the carrier it never got would have been in late summer 08. Zero pre effect
Pro CDMA: delayed by engineering and testing problems. zero pre effect

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregV

Hush, chicken littles. Palm's not going under before the Pre launch. The reason was right in the TreoCentral article:
Elevation will pony up more cash if they need it, as they seem very firmly committed to this....

chicken littles? wall street is chicken littles? wow. Palms cash position deteriorated faster than they thought it would and faster than they were letting on. that is not a problem of perception, there is no more real problem.

On to your certainty that the well is limitless at Elevation. The article was written by someone who doesn't know finance, ok? they at least said so. Please do tell us the mechanism for getting more from Elevation? I am sure Palm is interested other than remarked (which screws elevation).

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregV

It's also to be expected that if they announce a hot new product, the demand for their existing lineup is going to drop off.

this is demonstrably not what happened. That drop off is not even in the reported quarters yet. that effect is what we will see in the next quarter

Quote:

Originally Posted by GregV

The hype machine is dormant right now because it would be impossible to sustain it from now until launch. It will rev up again when it's time. If the Pre launches to bad reviews and/or sales THEN it's time to worry.

Greg, hype machines eat. They are the budget equivalent of having a teenage son or daughter. they want credit cards, free phones, new clothes and money wired to wherever they ran out.

Contrary to your chicken little remark, no one is saying Palm is tanking tomorrow, what they are saying is they are in considerably worse shape than thought, especially over the mid and short term. Being weak has an affect on your ability to develop completely, support and promote a product in competitive world.

Gas Man · 03/04/2009, 07:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by aero

they absolutely positively had to announce this at ces or they would be bankrupt today.the idea spun by palm that pre announcement killed or even harmed the recent palm launches is not credible -- and demonstrably so.

let's list them, please tell me which were damaged by pre?
800w: Zero affect by pre.
Pro gsm: Carrier negotiation for the carrier it never got would have been in late summer 08. Zero pre effect
pro cdma: Delayed by engineering and testing problems. Zero pre effect

chicken littles? Wall street is chicken littles? Wow. Palms cash position deteriorated faster than they thought it would and faster than they were letting on. That is not a problem of perception, there is no more real problem.

On to your certainty that the well is limitless at elevation. The article was written by someone who doesn't know finance, ok? They at least said so. Please do tell us the mechanism for getting more from elevation? I am sure palm is interested other than remarked (which screws elevation).
This is demonstrably not what happened. That drop off is not even in the reported quarters yet. That effect is what we will see in the next quarter

Greg, hype machines eat. they are the budget equivalent of having a teenage son or daughter. They want credit cards, free phones, new clothes and money wired to wherever they ran out.

Contrary to your chicken little remark, no one is saying palm is tanking tomorrow, what they are saying is they are in considerably worse shape than thought, especially over the mid and short term. Being weak has an affect on your ability to develop completely, support and promote a product in competitive world.

well said

udratherbme · 03/04/2009, 07:32 AM

It would be amazing to see what Sprint's projections were and are @ this point in time..... i would assume that they are suffering the same............

03/03/2009, 05:39 PM	#1 (permalink)
SedahDrol Member Join Date: Feb 2007 Posts: 165 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 4 Thanked 5 Times in 5 Posts	Delays in Pro launch and Pre anticipation affecting Palms third quarter projections According to ZDNet article Palm's projected third quarter sales are down to 85 to 90 million from 155 million. The delays in the Pro launch and people waiting for the Pre are negatively affecting Palm's bottom line. Lets just hope they get to actually launch the Pre. __________________ --Nextel Blackberry 7520 -> Sprint Treo 700p -> Sprint Treo 755p -> Sprint Pre
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 05:51 PM	#2 (permalink)
Dieter Bohn Editor Emeritus Join Date: Feb 2001 Location: Sunnyvale, CA Posts: 4,872 Likes Received: 6 Thanks: 290 Thanked 1,362 Times in 360 Posts	http://treocentral.com/content/Stories/2441-1.htm __________________ This is my next... website
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03/03/2009, 07:29 PM	#3 (permalink)
darnell Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Chattanooga, TN USA Posts: 4,298 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 140 Thanked 65 Times in 55 Posts	With the Pre opening with Sprint, they'll be starting it with a smaller carrier and while there will be some gains it won't be like a launch with AT&T or Verizon. By the time Palm releases a GSM Pre, they might be in the thinnest of ice. If they survive the year, it might be very close.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 08:04 PM	#4 (permalink)
scuba_steve Member Join Date: May 2007 Location: Northern Virginia Posts: 635 Likes Received: 19 Thanks: 63 Thanked 212 Times in 110 Posts	An announcement six months in advance of the Pre release is killing them...Pro delay notwithstanding Look at that KILLER drop off in the graph after the CES announcement. Apple didn't have this issue when they announced their initial iPhone model well in advance since the announcement didn't kill the marketing for any existing Apple products...since they did not have a phone yet. At most, it may have delayed a handful of iPod purchases...but probably not too many given the perceived priced and functionality differences. In contrast, Palm's Pre announcement pretty much said, "hey, our current products are dead ends...and look at the amazing replacement that we have coming down the road." You didn't need a business degree to see how that was going to turn out. THAT is precisely why many companies (like Apple) let their current products dwindle out of the supply chain before they make an official announcement of the next generation products...and why they then get that next gen product out FAST after that announcement. __________________ IIIx -> Tungsten T -> Treo 650 -> Treo 700p -> Launch day Pre
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 08:41 PM	#5 (permalink)
Visor To Pre Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: Charlotte, NC Posts: 76 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 0 Thanked 6 Times in 3 Posts	Palm needed CES more than it needed a good, average, or decent 3rd quarter. The long term view was the right one. Palm has the misfortune of announcing a great product during a global recession, but Palm will come out of this smelling like a rose.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 08:42 PM	#6 (permalink)
Walter E Kurtz Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 190 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 12 Thanked 15 Times in 11 Posts	Plus Apple had a release date the day they announced it. __________________ Treo 650p --> Treo 755p --> Pre
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 09:36 PM	#8 (permalink)
fwinst Member Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 721 Likes Received: 129 Thanks: 134 Thanked 80 Times in 58 Posts	Announcing the Pre at CES would have been fine if they had a firm release date in mind. IMHO, by the end of QTR2 is as firm as jello. It would have eased the issue had Palm and Sprint started a campaign of releasing new info about the phone at regular intervals. But to be truly honest, most people don't know or care enough about the Pre to be wrapped in anticipation of its release. We here at TC are in the phone frenzy minority.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 09:57 PM	#9 (permalink)
VaccPalm Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,300 Likes Received: 9 Thanks: 18 Thanked 127 Times in 97 Posts	I agree with that. Of all the friends and family I have ( and alot of them are smart phone users) there is zero anticipation for the pre. there alot for the google phone and some other phones b ut not the pre. Not sure why.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 10:02 PM	#11 (permalink)
Beanis Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 1,636 Likes Received: 40 Thanks: 16 Thanked 355 Times in 176 Posts	A lot of you seem to be missing the important point that it is ultimately Sprint's decision when to release the Pre.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 10:14 PM	#12 (permalink)
darnell Member Join Date: Aug 2002 Location: Chattanooga, TN USA Posts: 4,298 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 140 Thanked 65 Times in 55 Posts	Some have claimed there are not even enough Pres made yet to release if Palm and Sprint wanted to release today. Palm should have released within 30 days of the CES announcement, to maximize on the hype. It could be summer by the time the Pre is released and by then people might see something else that catches their eye. And some people, many people, simply are not going to go with Sprint. By the time a model is ready for non-Sprint folks, Palm will have lost even more of their CES buzz.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 10:21 PM	#13 (permalink)
VaccPalm Member Join Date: Feb 2003 Posts: 2,300 Likes Received: 9 Thanks: 18 Thanked 127 Times in 97 Posts	dosent matter if its palm or sprints fault but its marketing 101. you have such a buzz and anounce a new phone you dont months go bye and no phone. Honestly by the time the phone comes out it will be the die hards who get it , the rest of the public will move on.
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 11:21 PM	#14 (permalink)
Walter E Kurtz Member Join Date: Aug 2006 Posts: 190 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 12 Thanked 15 Times in 11 Posts	Sony Xperia X1 says hi. (That along with the extremely high price point.) __________________ Treo 650p --> Treo 755p --> Pre
	Liked by

03/03/2009, 11:32 PM	#16 (permalink)
PedroTheGoat Member Join Date: Feb 2009 Location: Kerrville, Tx Posts: 680 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 89 Thanked 191 Times in 39 Posts	^Really good post. Great points. Even if it gets horrible reviews like the Storm (Not really comparing it to the Pre guys... Relax), I will still buy it. I've been following it too closely for too long. I would work through any issues and smile about it. You are completely right though. The hype machine will come right back when these phones start getting thrown around near launch. That will be an awesome time. Hope it comes soon.
	Liked by

03/04/2009, 12:48 AM	#17 (permalink)
jazzdoc Member Join Date: May 2005 Posts: 128 Likes Received: 10 Thanks: 6 Thanked 3 Times in 2 Posts	I wonder if they will release a GSM Pre in Europe prior launching with a USA carrier, or if the Sprint exclusive means no 3G USA support even in an unlockable phone. Perhaps they are going with a Sprint exclusive partly because their production capacity won't allow simultaneous CDMA and GSM production volumes that would be adequate. Maybe they can make more money with one radio initially. Personally I would like to have the option of a multi band 3G GSM unlocked Pre, but I may be in the minority, and therefore irrelevant to Palm's marketing strategy. __________________ Casio BOSS->Palm Pilot Professional->Palm V->Palm M500->Treo 600-> Treo 680->Treo Pro (TP) ->HP Veer<->HP TP<->Pre3 Conn 6H-> Bach 36->Bach 16L (high Bb plays really flat?(fixed thanks to Dick Akright))-> New York Bach 6viii
	Liked by

03/04/2009, 07:32 AM	#20 (permalink)
udratherbme Member Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 296 Likes Received: 0 Thanks: 9 Thanked 7 Times in 4 Posts	It would be amazing to see what Sprint's projections were and are @ this point in time..... i would assume that they are suffering the same............
	Liked by

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