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  1.    #1  
    Heard a presentation by a Lucent executive yesterday. His premise was that Wi-Fi is dead. It will be replaced by 3G cellular.

    Consider that Verizon has abandoned its Wi-Fi initiative in New York City and is promoting CDMA/EVDO as a general purpose broadband connection for PCs. Consider that at least two PC makers have announced plans to "include" EVDO radios in new laptops. (Sprint and Verizon still charge more for PCMCIA modems than they charge for a phone. One will soon be able to buy a PC with the radio for what they are charging for a radio alone. )

    He admitted that (Verizon's) rate, $80-, is too high. He thinks that they must/will get to $40- per month, i.e., the "popular" price point. Price will come down when they have picked the low-hanging fruit and begin to compete with wire.

    He talked about B3G (Circa 2010). He said you could think of it as two T1s to your belt buckle and one T1 up.

    What does Palm know that we do not?

    [Incidentally, although the hotel advertised Wi-Fi, no one could find it. I used PDANet/EDGE.]
  2. #2  
    Yea, sure... wifi is dead... Just go ahead and throw your access point away if you believe that.

    Wi-Max is the future of data communications, not 3g cellular. But 3g cellular can have a piece of the pie also if they hurry it up. If the prices are similar it might even become a equal of Wi-max.
  3.    #3  
    My preference for connection is Wi-Fi because it is built into my computers. At home I simply turn the computer on. In hotels, airports, and offices, I prefer Wi-Fi; I pay T-Mobile a monthly fee for the convenience. However, I must still logon and often negotiate firewalls. If I roam, I can use my T-Mo account but must pay roaming charges.

    PDANet (Cingular/EDGE) works more places than Wi-Fi. It is slower but fast enough (faster than dial, slower than DSL) for e-mail and limited browsing. It also requires an external connection. I use a USB cable. Perhaps BT works better but I do not know. I have used it in a villa in rural Italy.

    Before PDANet and Cingular, I used PCMCIA radio over T-Mo. Connection was slower than dial and software was flakey.

    I pay T-mobile $40-/mo., Earthlink $22- (for dial-up and my mailbox), Cablevision $40-, and Cingular $40- for data. Makes Verizon's $80- look cheap. Assume that the radio is built in and software stable. Add to that the convenience that the connection is always there and you need never logon, and it starts to look pretty good.
  4.    #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmite
    Yea, sure... wifi is dead... Just go ahead and throw your access point away if you believe that.

    Wi-Max is the future of data communications, not 3g cellular. But 3g cellular can have a piece of the pie also if they hurry it up. If the prices are similar it might even become a equal of Wi-max.
    Wi-Max is still pie-in-the-sky. CDMA/EVDO is here, not to say everywhere. First-to-market often trumps superior technology.
  5.    #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by shadowmite
    Yea, sure... wifi is dead... Just go ahead and throw your access point away if you believe that.....
    I like wireless. I recently purchased a Wi-Flyer access point that includes a V90 modem and will connect over dial-up. Works like you would want it to, e.g., one button re-dial.

    Frankly, I do not much care what the technology is. In fact, it would be worth a premium not to have to know, not to have to manage it, not to have to make (economic) choices. We will learn a lot from the success or failure of Verizon's new marketing thrust.
    Last edited by whmurray; 10/12/2005 at 09:38 AM.
  6. #6  
    All these types of technology are temporary. It is just a matter of time. Wifi is having its day, and will undoubtedly be replaced by something else, which will be replaced by something else. . .
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  7. #7  
    So will I be able to use my neighbors EVDO like I'm using their wifi now?
  8.    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by sam-i-am
    So will I be able to use my neighbors EVDO like I'm using their wifi now?
    No.

    Keep in mind that technology people did Wi-Fi; carriers are doing EVDO. Carriers understand that it is all about the money.
    Last edited by whmurray; 10/12/2005 at 10:19 AM.
  9.    #9  
    From http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2005...pcworld/122994

    "Palm believes that PDA users tend to stick close to Wi-Fi networks in their home or office, while Treo users are on the road more frequently away from Wi-Fi hotspots, Doshi said. While Treo users certainly visit their homes and offices on occasion, many analysts believe that the cellular carriers that sell the Treos are more interested in keeping those users connected to the Internet on pricey cellular network connections, rather than free Wi-Fi connections.

    Still, Palm is fulfilling the wishes of users for more PDAs that can connect to the Internet with the release of the TX. PDA shipments have been in a freefall for several years, as mobile phones have become more powerful and capable of handling very basic contact and calendar information."

    It seems clear that Palm believes this. It is also consistent with the view often expressed on TreoCentral that they design the Treo to satisfy the (CDMA) carriers.
  10.    #10  
    Also from http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2005...pcworld/122994

    "This will be [Palm's] most credible Wi-Fi product to date. But it's kind of late in the game when you've got an OS that is obviously not going to be upgraded,"

    They cannot continue to separate Wi-Fi from cellular and expect to maintain any credibility at all. We want high-speed (low-cost) connectivity. We do not want to be forced into artificial and difficult choices to get what we want.
  11. slinky's Avatar
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    #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by whmurray
    Heard a presentation by a Lucent executive yesterday. His premise was that Wi-Fi is dead. It will be replaced by 3G cellular.

    Consider that Verizon has abandoned its Wi-Fi initiative in New York City and is promoting CDMA/EVDO as a general purpose broadband connection for PCs. Consider that at least two PC makers have announced plans to "include" EVDO radios in new laptops. (Sprint and Verizon still charge more for PCMCIA modems than they charge for a phone. One will soon be able to buy a PC with the radio for what they are charging for a radio alone. )
    Thanks for the laugh.

    First of all, Verizon's Internet service has to consider the effect of WiFi on its Wireless services. Ironically the WiFi service was discontinued at the same time that Treos and other devices were introduced that required VZW's new expensive data plans that I will ditch when I dump my Treo.

    Considering that WiFi enabled phones have been the hottest thing to hit the market, as has broadband VOIP phones, this pronounciation couldn't be funnier.

    He admitted that (Verizon's) rate, $80-, is too high. He thinks that they must/will get to $40- per month, i.e., the "popular" price point. Price will come down when they have picked the low-hanging fruit and begin to compete with wire.

    He talked about B3G (Circa 2010). He said you could think of it as two T1s to your belt buckle and one T1 up.

    What does Palm know that we do not?

    [Incidentally, although the hotel advertised Wi-Fi, no one could find it. I used PDANet/EDGE.]
    Even at $40 month it is way, way too high. Nobody is paying for it any more and people will not stand for that kind of cost. WiFi services at hotels are everywhere, even at 2 star Holiday Inn Expresses.

    THis is nothing more than hype. Like anything else, if consumers can get similar done for less than half the price it doesn't matter how good the technology is if the job gets done.

    "This will be [Palm's] most credible Wi-Fi product to date. But it's kind of late in the game when you've got an OS that is obviously not going to be upgraded,"

    They cannot continue to separate Wi-Fi from cellular and expect to maintain any credibility at all. We want high-speed (low-cost) connectivity. We do not want to be forced into artificial and difficult choices to get what we want.
    Couldn't have said it better myself. Palm is sticking the knife in its own back. Sounds like a bunch of technology fanboys with their own agenda, somehow believing that the revenue will roll in from all these proprietary new technologies. By the time it is ready for use at an affordable cost the phone will have been outdated for a long time. The 650's RAM was outdated year's ago. It's no wonder Palm's stock is in the toilet.
  12. slinky's Avatar
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    #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by whmurray
    From http://news.yahoo.com/s/pcworld/2005...pcworld/122994

    "Palm believes that PDA users tend to stick close to Wi-Fi networks in their home or office, while Treo users are on the road more frequently away from Wi-Fi hotspots, Doshi said. While Treo users certainly visit their homes and offices on occasion, many analysts believe that the cellular carriers that sell the Treos are more interested in keeping those users connected to the Internet on pricey cellular network connections, rather than free Wi-Fi connections.

    Still, Palm is fulfilling the wishes of users for more PDAs that can connect to the Internet with the release of the TX. PDA shipments have been in a freefall for several years, as mobile phones have become more powerful and capable of handling very basic contact and calendar information."

    It seems clear that Palm believes this. It is also consistent with the view often expressed on TreoCentral that they design the Treo to satisfy the (CDMA) carriers.
    And how funny is this -- I just received it in the mail. Screw Palm. I hope whomever is responsible for not releasing the WiFi drivers for the 650 rots.

    ====================================

    WIFI AND A BIG COLOR SCREEN. NOW THAT'S HUGE. INTRODUCING THE NEW PALM T/X HANDHELD.

    Affordable Wi-Fi is here. The Palm T|X handheld lets you browse the web, check email1, and see everything on a large color screen. Other benefits include:

    Built-in Wi-Fi and Bluetooth wireless technology
    High-res 320x480 screen, rotates to landscape or portrait
    128MB2 flash memory keeps your information safe
    View, edit, and create Word, Excel, and PowerPoint compatible files3
    View photos and videos, play MP3 files and podcasts4
    MultiMediaCard, SD, and SDIO expansion card compatible
    Intel® 312 MHz processor
  13.    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by slinky
    And how funny is this -- I just received it in the mail. Screw Palm. I hope whomever is responsible for not releasing the WiFi drivers for the 650 rots.

    ====================================

    WIFI AND A BIG COLOR SCREEN. NOW THAT'S HUGE. INTRODUCING THE NEW PALM T/X HANDHELD.

    Affordable Wi-Fi is here. The Palm T|X handheld lets you browse the web, check email1, and see everything on a large color screen. Other benefits include:

    Built-in Wi-Fi and Bluetooth wireless technology
    High-res 320x480 screen, rotates to landscape or portrait
    128MB2 flash memory keeps your information safe
    View, edit, and create Word, Excel, and PowerPoint compatible files3
    View photos and videos, play MP3 files and podcasts4
    MultiMediaCard, SD, and SDIO expansion card compatible
    Intel® 312 MHz processor
    "It's business, Sonny. It's not personal."
  14. #14  
    It is probably not WiFi the technology vs EVDO the technology.

    Carriers' preferred business model is charge base on content, not volume and speed. A text message (160 characters for Cingular) is worth 10 cents, a ring tone is X, a call is Y, a photo is Z.

    WiFi/WiMax are bps based pricing (how fast, how long) where as phone is content base pricing (what kind? where?). The traditional carriers would love to kill WiFi/WiMax so they can get 10 cents for 160 bytes.
  15. wildfirex's Avatar
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    #15  
    Sorry, but I have to interject.

    Wi-Max is still pie-in-the-sky. CDMA/EVDO is here, not to say everywhere. First-to-market often trumps superior technology.
    Ahem.

    http://www.towerstream.com/
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wi-max#Product_release

    According to those, Wi-Max doesn't seem so pie-in-the-sky to me, especially considering the fact that according to the coverage maps for both Verizon and Sprint on EVDO, it's probably going to be a while for me, here in the middle of U.S. Midwestern hell.

    Of course, it'll probably be a while before we get Wi-Max here as well, but considering the fact that Wi-Max is an 802 IEEE standard, that means that any ISP could start offering it, connected directly to their existing infrastructure, whereas I have to wait for Sprint or Verizon to decide that offering EVDO in my area is worth the cost (and I can almost guarantee them it won't be for a while).

    Sounds to me like Wi-Max will be what I'm waiting for.
  16. #16  
    WiMax is not pie-in-the-sky. There are many companies developing the hardware now, and the providers (and possibly new providers) are looking at it. It's cheap and can be deployed easily.

    I'm an engineer with one of the teams working on wi-max now (many former Intel engineers). Intel is pushing it. The stepping stone is 3G and MIMO.

    After WiMax something else will come along.
  17. slinky's Avatar
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    #17  
    Yippie. It is a long way off until it is mainstream. HD-DVDs will become mainstream long before WiMax will.
  18.    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by siriusbliss
    WiMax is not pie-in-the-sky. There are many companies developing the hardware now, and the providers (and possibly new providers) are looking at it. It's cheap and can be deployed easily.

    I'm an engineer with one of the teams working on wi-max now (many former Intel engineers). Intel is pushing it. The stepping stone is 3G and MIMO.

    After WiMax something else will come along.
    You are talking about technology, perhaps, cost of deployment. I am talking about coverage. I am talking about coverage now. I am talking about low risk. I am talking about Verizon who is offering EVDO to 90% of the population (if not the geography) of the US. I am talking about Verizon who is promoting EVDO as an alternative to DSL. I am talking about Verizon who has abandoned Wi-Fi coverage of the largest and densest population in the US after they had already rolled it out.

    In any case, you may all want to go back and re-read what you read about Wi-Max. As I understand it, Wi-Max is for point-to-point, not mobility, my house, not my car. What do I have wrong?
  19. #19  
    WiFi will not die. You have to look at the different applications that WiFi is used with. Not everyone uses WiFi for strictly Internet Access. For example, medical offices & hospitals are working towards a truely paperless enviornment utilizing wireless pen tablets, laptops, and pocket pc's. Other mediums of communication would not make this possible (besides being wired down). Wi-Max is a great product, but this is more for a wireless WAN enviornment, not LAN. Wi-Max is more geared towards mobile professionals and home users.

    WiFi is not going away, and it never will. The applications that utilize WiFi (in a professional world) will always use WiFi. There is a huge security problem if you were to take away WiFi and make someone switch to something else to utilize wirelessly connecting to a LAN. If you were to use something like Wi-Max, you are talking about a user utilizing a VPN to connect into their office (which they would be standing in, working) to connect to their network.

    I believe some of the things said by Lucent (on the basis of just using WiFi for INTERNET, and not wirelessly connecting to your LAN in an office).

    Just $.02 from someone who works in the industry

    Bryan
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by siriusbliss
    WiMax is not pie-in-the-sky. There are many companies developing the hardware now, and the providers (and possibly new providers) are looking at it. It's cheap and can be deployed easily.

    I'm an engineer with one of the teams working on wi-max now (many former Intel engineers). Intel is pushing it. The stepping stone is 3G and MIMO.

    After WiMax something else will come along.
    I am also working with a company that has actually deployed a Wi-Max style WAN in Chandler & Tempe Arizona. It is not true Wi-Max, but wireless style Internet access that spans a 6 square mile area.
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