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  1. #61  
    Quote Originally Posted by Sunmoon
    Heck, even Opie and Anthony have commercials on their show now.. and XM users still have to pay extra! Talk about a slap in the face
    To be fair, they're just commercials for XM equipment and services, and it lasts maybe two minutes twice an hour. Barely enough time for the boys to take a whiz. Many times the show is coming back up and they're not back from the can!

    THE VIRUS IS OUT
    XM202
  2. #62  
    Depends on how any NY'ers will invest in Sirius radio.
  3. #63  
    Quote Originally Posted by mahoman
    Stern will attract alot more than 2 million listeners...my guess atleast half (5 million)...easy.

    Don't underestimate him.

    buy..buy..buy
    agreed.. Anyone ever been to one of his book signings? The lines were like 20 city blocks long. The president couldn't get that kinda turnout
  4. #64  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikec
    only 2M listeners over 5 years to breakeven on $500M?

    Not even counting the cost of the siruis satellites, devices, and operating expenses, that mean they expect each person to pay $250 a year (likely more with tack on fees) to listen to Stern (and commercials)
    Got a calculator? Do a little math.

    First off, Sirius' costs at this point regarding satellites and operating expenses are relatively fixed. They may have to add on some tech support reps to accomodate new users, but the channels all already have PD's and jocks. Satellite transmission costs are relatively flat, etc. That's what is cool about any sat service. The more people you have, the more profit margin.

    That said, let's assume that Howard starts with 2 million people that came for him and even ends with two million at the end of 5 years.

    That's 10.50 a month (ARPU) per person x 2,000,000 x 12.

    252,000,000 million dollars a year, or, over 5 years, 1.26 BILLION dollars. And they have to pay Howard and his entire staff, including production costs only 500 million for the 5 year period. That's a gross profit of 750 million dollars. Then, start adding in advertising revenues (currently about 100 million a year for Viacom, dirrectly resulting from Howard's show) and you can see it's a very smart move by Sirius.

    That's only 20% of Howard's listeners coming. Most analysts seem to think about 40% of Stern's listeners will eventually move over to satellite to get him. So, let's scale the subscribers. You can also bump up the ARPU slowly, because the price will definitely go up eventually due to inflation.

    Start: 500K users
    YE 2006 1.25M subs x 10.50 x 12 months (157M year)
    YE 2007 2.00M subs x 10.75 x 12 months (258M year)
    YE 2007 2.75M subs x 11.00 x 12 months (363M year)
    YE 2008 3.40M subs x 11.50 x 12 months (469M year)
    YE 2009 4.00M subs x 12.00 x 12 months (576M year)

    That's a gross total of 1.8 BILLION dollars. Um, yea, you go ahead and buy those shorts

    Sirius and XM will both have nearly 20 million subs by 2010, EACH. Even at today's ARPU of 10.50, you still get a company that will be pulling in 2.52 Billion dollars a year with costs that probably aren't too much higher than they are nowadays. Can you see why the stock is so actively traded?
  5. #65  
    Quote Originally Posted by pda_jedi
    Howard Stern would probably use his Treo 650 to take pictures of naked chicks flashing him on his show.
    Damn right he would! Stern rocks....follow me to Sirius with him

    Eric
  6. #66  
    Quote Originally Posted by Sunmoon
    Got a calculator? Do a little math.
    Hmm that shut everyone up
  7. jkoons's Avatar
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    #67  
    Quote Originally Posted by Joebar
    Hmm that shut everyone up
    They're all downloading and installing MegaCalc!
    Sprint PCS Treo 600 & 650
    Verizon Treo 700w
    www.James-K.com
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