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  1.    #1  
    stocks got hammered again -

    http://www.palminfocenter.com/view_story.asp?ID=7093

    if I'd be p1, I'd leak some more essential information about upcoming strategies, products, releases.

    or they must be sitting on HUGE producer contracts for t600 -

    not buying all the ordered goods may end up in devastating fines.

    something's clearly brewing - otherwise p1 would show a more self confident, offensive character.

    but we're only seing a company in the defensive.
  2. Iceman6's Avatar
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    #2  
    The stock price is getting hammered because it is based in part on revenue projections. No way Treo can sell their new units for $600+, now that BB is selling their latest for under $200.
  3. #3  
    In all fairness the new Blackbird 7100t is $200 only after all carrier subsidies and discounts. So to be a fair comparison, that'd be about $450 for the Treo under similar circumstances.

    Plus, the 7100t only runs on T-Mobile, does not have a full keyboard, and runs on a proprietary operating system with little third-party support. I've also read that the press corps that got to test it ran into a significant number of bugs.

    It is unclear that those who want to buy a treo would want to buy a 7100t, but in a sense you have a point, in that it is essential for PalmOne to bring out a lower-cost smartphone...they need something in that segment.
    There's no place like 127.0.0.1
  4. #4  
    The "bugs" you speak of were documented when the devices were handed to the press. The IM client and webbrowser were not usable. They are supposedly in late stage tweaking/testing with TMo. There were no other "bugs" encountered that I know of. Assuming those applications do work when the device ships (a safe bet IMO given BB's history of shipping extremely stable devices) then this thing should rejigger the smart phone pricing landscape.

    Also, word is that the other US GSM carriers (and possibly Verizon) will also get the device by Xmas this year...once TMo has couple months exclusive.

    TM
  5. #5  
    I'll be interested in seeing how robust their browser is, as well as how useable the IM client is. Also will have to see if the smartphone audience will bite on the keyboard design they're using.
    There's no place like 127.0.0.1
  6. #6  
    I think that there is some danger for P1. Among the people wanting to buy a Treo 600 / 650, there are a portion that could be satisfied with the 7100t because it has the basic calendar stuff. Others might like it because it's a great email receiver. Right now, the ultimate force of the Treo600 (as I see it) is the keyboard and the general layout.

    1/ The danger is 7100t might be "good enough" for many people
    2/ P1 is not very good a lowering costs on the Treo 6xx Series.
    3/ They can innovate at a faster pace to keep the margins high, but the data networks might not evolve as fast (EDGE, is not all that fast, and Wifi is a power hog)

    So, yes, some danger, but Palm is still ahead.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Iceman6
    The stock price is getting hammered because it is based in part on revenue projections. No way Treo can sell their new units for $600+, now that BB is selling their latest for under $200.

    Why does everyone keep saying this? I personally don't consider the Treo and 7100t even in the same spectrum. Heck, I personally don't even think of the 7100t as a smartphone at all. No OS, no 3rd party apps, no touchscreen, no camera, no mp3, absolutely no expansions options whatsoever!!! Yeah it has a nice email client and a rudimentary PIM, but that doesn't make it a smartphone, sorry...

    Nokia sells alot of uber mobiles like the 6820 etc that have very intriguing keyboard designs and support the BB Connect client, but they are just suped-up messaging phones, not smartphones!! (Note the Nokia 6820 for example is a non-symbian Series 40 handset). Once Sprint/PalmOne etc finally releases the PalmOS BB Connect client for the Treo, I don't see any advantage for those stuck on BB enterprise infrastructure towards the 7100t or whoever. Furthermore, I would be willing to wager P1 releases a new low end Treo later on anyway...
    _________________
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  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by gfunkmagic
    Why does everyone keep saying this? I personally don't consider the Treo and 7100t even in the same spectrum. Heck, I personally don't even think of the 7100t as a smartphone at all. No OS, no 3rd party apps, no touchscreen, no camera, no mp3, absolutely no expansions options whatsoever!!! Yeah it has a nice email client and a rudimentary PIM, but that doesn't make it a smartphone, sorry...

    Nokia sells alot of uber mobiles like the 6820 etc that have very intriguing keyboard designs and support the BB Connect client, but they are just suped-up messaging phones, not smartphones!! (Note the Nokia 6820 for example is a non-symbian Series 40 handset). Once Sprint/PalmOne etc finally releases the PalmOS BB Connect client for the Treo, I don't see any advantage for those stuck on BB enterprise infrastructure towards the 7100t or whoever. Furthermore, I would be willing to wager P1 releases a new low end Treo later on anyway...
    My thoughts as well, gfunk. This new blackberry phone is getting way too much credit....
  9. #9  
    The first that hit me about this thread is that the story about the stock getting hit is two days old. Made it sound like it was new news and the stock was at 25 or something. Anyway, I think the Treo 600 becomes the cheap option and with blackberry connect it would blow away the new BB for all the reason gfunk mentioned -- and it's a year old.
  10. #10  
    Do you think it is possible that P1 adds BB support for the T600? My sense is that RIM could probably block that move (by not certifying the app to work with the server, for instance).
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by luisdasilva
    Do you think it is possible that P1 adds BB support for the T600? My sense is that RIM could probably block that move (by not certifying the app to work with the server, for instance).
    From the PalmSource Euro Devcon session list:

    BlackBerry Connect for Palm OS: An End-to-End Platform for the Enterprise
    Speaker: Shawn Kahandaliyanage - Product Manager, BlackBerry Licensing, RIM
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by beelzebueb
    if I'd be p1, I'd leak some more essential information about upcoming strategies, products, releases.

    or they must be sitting on HUGE producer contracts for t600 -

    not buying all the ordered goods may end up in devastating fines.

    something's clearly brewing - otherwise p1 would show a more self confident, offensive character.

    but we're only seing a company in the defensive.
    My bet is we will find out on 10/25 at CTIO - what better place to unveil a new treo than during a keynote at CTIO on enterprise solutions.

    At this point, leaks don't matter. BB had a product announcement - not a leak. Leaks and vague strategy statements would, IMO, look weak and desperate - like a company on its heals being forced to come up with something in reaction.

    When you have been given a forum like P1 has next month, you can send a confident message that you know the direction things are heading and introduce the product that is going to represent the market leader.

    P1 knows what their doing far better than we do. By 10/28 we will all be reading threads about how someone claims to have pre-ordered an Ace somewhere and will probably not be worring too much about P1s stock price.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by gfunkmagic
    Why does everyone keep saying this?
    Because if the total market for cell phones is 100 people and 5 are in PalmOne's pocket right now due to the TREO, then just =1= leaving and buying the next-less-inexpensive cell phone is a huge loss for PalmOne.

    The Market is not infinite.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by SeldomVisitor
    Because if the total market for cell phones is 100 people and 5 are in PalmOne's pocket right now due to the TREO, then just =1= leaving and buying the next-less-inexpensive cell phone is a huge loss for PalmOne.

    The Market is not infinite.
    You are making two assumptions here, which I happen to disagree:

    1, You assume that the overall smartphone market will not grow. What if the market is 200 people, not 100 people as you had suggested.
    2, You assume that existing Treo customers will not upgrade or buy another treo phone.

    Only time will tell.
  15. #15  
    a crapload of people will by the Treo 650 for the speed, screen, removable battery and BT alone. (albeit the lame 1.1 version of BT).

    re the new BB, time will tell. I think not...predictive keypads just won't cut it for a lot of people.

    the lack of touchscreen, third party apps,and expansion slot are signficant

    For first time smartish phone buyers (or existing bb users), it may be the ticket, but I am curious how many Treo or PPC users switch, if any.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by luisdasilva
    Do you think it is possible that P1 adds BB support for the T600? My sense is that RIM could probably block that move (by not certifying the app to work with the server, for instance).
    Yeah, they've already announced a partnership. PalmOne is just waiting for a lawsuit to settle against RIM so they don't have to pull their support as soon as they release it.

    "(CEO) Todd Bradley at PalmOne said he didn't want anything to do with RIM until the NTP case is settled, that's indicative of the sentiment in the industry"

    http://news.com.com/Five+tech+firms+...3-5349579.html
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by SeldomVisitor
    Because if the total market for cell phones is 100 people and 5 are in PalmOne's pocket right now due to the TREO, then just =1= leaving and buying the next-less-inexpensive cell phone is a huge loss for PalmOne.

    The Market is not infinite.
    That may be true, but the point is that the 5 people that buy Treo's are likely buying it for features not present in the new BB (all those that gfunk mentioned plus the fact that it's only on one carrier). Thus it's unlikely that the new BB steals 1 away. And for every one that the BB steals away, the Treo 600 (once it gets lowered in price to make room for the new Treo 650), will steal another 5 from the hundred, likely making the Palm market 9 of 100.

    You have to remember that the Treo 600 should be about the same price as the BB in a month (and already is on Amazon). Thus it's unlikely that it's a "next-less-inexpensive" cell phone.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by gfunkmagic
    Why does everyone keep saying this? I personally don't consider the Treo and 7100t even in the same spectrum. Heck, I personally don't even think of the 7100t as a smartphone at all. No OS, no 3rd party apps, no touchscreen, no camera, no mp3, absolutely no expansions options whatsoever!!! Yeah it has a nice email client and a rudimentary PIM, but that doesn't make it a smartphone, sorry...
    Actually, I and many others consider email and PIM to *be* the definition of a smartphone (as compared to what I would term a PDA-phone).

    I'm a fairly serious geek, but the truth is, I use my treo for the following purposes:

    1) Phone
    2) Calendar and contacts
    3) email

    Everything else I putz around with (such as using it as a an mp3 player on trips and stuff) is less than 5% of my usage and not particularly critical.

    Steve
  19. #19  
    I would agree with Steve that the 7100 is a smartphone. I consider any phone that has a pim to be a smart phone, and Wikipedia bears me out:
    <i>"A smartphone is generally considered any handheld device that integrates personal information management and mobile phone capabilities in the same device"</i>

    I would call the Treo a PDA phone, which in my mind carries alot more weight then does the nomenclature 'smartphone'.
    "Matters of great concern should be taken lightly, matters of small concern should be taken seriously."
    -ancient chinese adage
  20.    #20  
    agree with steve - this is a very smart gadget - just to name the trackwheel navigation.

    a quantum leap compared to previous bb devices - if only the design would be sleaker.

    treo doesnt have the courage for a similar quantum leap - or do they call the t650 because it mainly remains a t6xx line? a t700 would be a much more updated concept?

    ok, treos are for the chosen one - but not much longer if innovation remains on a standstill with only minor cosmetic upgrades.

    they were first in their market - a year from now on the situation will look VERY very different with decent co-players around offering at least the same quality.
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