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  1. #81  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    P1 gets much cheaper and RIMM will end up buying a lot of P1 stock and our Treo's will have that funny Canadian accent all of a sudden...

    Actually that would be pretty cool! I would love if Rim lisenced PalmOS and released a PalmOS Blackberry device!
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  2. #82  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    Mike, I did not say P1 would sell no Treos but my point I stand behind is IF I have 100 Treos to buy corporately and I have no need for camera and MP3 storage and the "gazillions of extra apps for the devices and the Treo is $599 and the BB is $199 guess which one I as a corporate officer am choosing for my staff? Pretty easy decision to save $40k. That $40k in savings would buy 20+ new laptops for staff or be savings. Think lke business people not the Treo fans we are and you will understand as a corporate officer I could care less if it loads a web page a couple seconds slower. Note in JP Morgans analysis of this situation today THEY NOTED THAT PALM ONE IS THEMSELVES CONCERNED about the effects this BB device at $199 will have on their 2005 sales. This is not my opinion alone but of P1. My opinion is worth squat (and I know it)!
    I agree - BB already had the edge in the enterprise market and now they are blurring the line with the 7100t.

    While I think that a Treo, especially using GoodLink, is far better than a BB for a corporate user who wants to monitor emails and PIM applications - MS Office attachments are editable, calendars sync up in real time - it is awsome. I get excited about the nuances - most corporate users do not.

    As MikeUnwired pointed out - Jaguar still sells cars even though Hyundias are available. I just don't think many companies are buying fleets of Jaguars for their salesmen.

    Most execs have heard of BBs already so any pitch that will result in a substantially higher investment for a lesser known product that relies on 3rd party software for push is a huge risk for decision-makers. It gets back to the "no one ever got fired for going with IBM" way of thinking. Even if most corporate decision makers recognize the advantages to the Treo, they will go with the safer bet.

    I am concerned that the Treo is getting cornered by BB in the enterprise messaging market and by PPCs for the enterprise app market as M$FT continues to sink their claws in with the .NET platform. If P1 loses the enterprise market, the Treo will most likely cease to exist, I do not believe it can exist long term in a shrinking niche. I like to see the best man win, but I have increasing concerns about P1 and the Treo. Hopefully I am overreacting - I probably am.

    Nevertheless, I would bet that BBs 7100 announcement at $199 is causing a stir at P1 if they were looking at a $500+ price point for a new Treo device. I am anxious to see what they do.
  3. #83  
    Gfunk, you made your comments about the stylus on another board on another site...I can not remember which one. Others have voiced similar opinions. If BB uses Java apps, how easy it would be for corp america to roll out custom Java applets...
  4. #84  
    Corporate America isn't doing tons of custom Java development for mobile devices. At least not right now. I suppose that could change. I guess I still think that RAD development is the way to go. If MS ever gets their act together, the .NET tools could help give their smartphone and PPC phones a boost in this regard. This is one area that I see sorely lacking on palmOne and/or PalmSource's part. There are some Palm OS RAD tools available, but they don't seem to be getting much attention or publicity from PalmSource and the PQA technology was dropped altogether, when it should have been improved, given better security, and separated from Palm's server farm (i.e., allow businesses to develop PQA apps that connected to their own servers).

    gfunk, the bigger battery is another cheap addition. I can buy a replacement battery for my cell phone for $15, so how much can the extra capacity of the Treo 600's battery add? Better processor? OK, I'll give you that. So how much is that worth? So, even if $150 after subsidies is tight, $200 should be easily doable for the Treo 600. I still don't see a need for a different low-end device. And how would they get the costs down farther? B&W screen ain't gonna happen. Cutting out the camera doesn't cut costs (again, we're talking about a chintzy $10-20 camera part). Slower processor than the Treo 600's? I don't see that happening, either. Really, the Treo 600 is fairly bare-bones. Anything less than that they've already got. It's called the Treo 270/300 (a darned nice smartphone, I might add. ).

    If they're hell-bent on the Treo 600 form-factor, I guess they could repackage the Treo 270/300 inside of that (i.e., no flip and narrower) and give those away for free or $99 tops. The Treo 600 could/should then sell for $199 with carrier subsidies and the ACE for $350.

    Scott
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  5. #85  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    Slow, it had to do with not wanting to use my Treo for music but instead using the iPod because there is a huge difference between the storage and quality of playback (not to mention the iPod interface is the most intuitive in the market). People were flaming the BB because it had no MP3 capability. My point was if you find games or music are compelling maybe the Treo is not the best product to fit all situations...
    I think I was the one who "flamed the BB because it has no mp3 capability". For 98% of the public, mp3 is good enough, especially when combined with a GB SD card ($70 now BTW). Plus Treo can support Ogg Vorbis (iPod can't) which doubles the quality or quantity depending on how you encode. MP3 market is big and if you can replace a $100+ device (solid state ones), you've got good value.

    I agree the iPod has an excellent interface, but it still requires an extra device. Treo, with the right software could be a better interface in that it lets you search for songs via the keyboard, something that the iPod doesn't. I'm just saying that the Treo has room for growth, but I wouldn't count them out on this front. How many people are willing to carry a cell phone and an mp3 player with them at all times? I'd go with -- not many.
  6. #86  
    Why is everyone so afraid of the $199 blackberry phone? No expansion slot, a proprietary OS, little third party software support, and a strange keyboard. These are enough reasons that enterprises will NOT want to buy this phone. Sure you can save a couple hundrend dollars on the hardware, if that much, but that's peanut for big companies deploying IT projects. From what I have learned, you save more than a couple hundrend dollars per user in software licensening cost alone in the first year, if you go with Good and Treo 600. For those who have deployed Good and Blackberry, please correct me if I got these numbers wrong.

    As for consumers, why would you want to be locked into using Blackberry email solution only? Don't you want to try snappermail or even versa mail? Not to mention the tens of thousands of Palm OS games and other software available out there.

    Sure, the Blackberry was first to market in wireless email solution, so was Wang first in the Wordprocessor market. This smartphone market is big enough to support more than a couple of players. And the palmone management can't be that stupid to not have an entry-level smartphone on the roadmap.
  7. #87  
    Rome, they why did P1 tell JP Morgan (stock analyst) they were concerned about it effecting 2005 sales? If you have a better idea then they do please explain it to us...
  8. #88  
    gharrod, palmone did NOT say anything to JP Morgan regarding their 2005 sales number or earnings number. The JP Morgan analyst took down the full year earnings on his own because he thought that palmone will experience additional pricing pressure because of this new blackberry phone. Ever heard of a thing called FD? Palmone would be breaking the law if they said anything to JP Morgan about financial guidance. Not to mention that P1 is currently in quite period.

    As for JP Morgan's earnings revision, that's just a guess work because the analyst is being paid a lot of money to express his "opinion". I spent a few years at a big tech company and had a job doing some business planning. Our own internal forecast of the current year's sales number was usually off by at least 20-30%, not for the entire company, but for our fast-growing division at the time. If this smartphone market is going to grow as fast as everyone has been predicting, a couple of pennies here and there don't mean a thing.
  9. #89  
    Quote Originally Posted by jonhoffm
    I agree - BB already had the edge in the enterprise market and now they are blurring the line with the 7100t.

    Most execs have heard of BBs already so any pitch that will result in a substantially higher investment for a lesser known product that relies on 3rd party software for push is a huge risk for decision-makers. It gets back to the "no one ever got fired for going with IBM" way of thinking. Even if most corporate decision makers recognize the advantages to the Treo, they will go with the safer bet

    I am concerned that the Treo is getting cornered by BB in the enterprise messaging market and by PPCs for the enterprise app market as M$FT continues to sink their claws in with the .NET platform. If P1 loses the enterprise market, the Treo will most likely cease to exist, I do not believe it can exist long term in a shrinking niche. I like to see the best man win, but I have increasing concerns about P1 and the Treo. Hopefully I am overreacting - I probably am.

    Nevertheless, I would bet that BBs 7100 announcement at $199 is causing a stir at P1 if they were looking at a $500+ price point for a new Treo device. I am anxious to see what they do.
    Any edge you give to BB in the enterprise market has to go away when you look at the agreement between the two. Treo can do all the BB can do, just waiting for software. Sure the software isn't there, but it will be before this new BB is available on a carrier other than T-mo.

    I think people are smarter than the "no one ever got fired for going with IBM" plan. People get fired for making bad decisions and losing money. I'm no expert buyer for a corporation, but even I know that money-wise you can get a Treo 600 for the same price as a BB.

    Remember that the key to this is that BB licensed their technology to Palm, hence they aren't truly competing against each other. BB makes money when Treo's sell (when they launch).

    You're last logic assumes that the BB device is comparable to the Treo 650 at the Treo 650 price. While it might be, I'd argue (and have) that it competes poorly (at least in some ways) with the year old Treo 600. That said, the prices of the Treo 600 and BB device are the same, thus there's no real advantage.
  10. Iceman6's Avatar
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    #90  
    Ah, but P1 was hoping to sell the Ace for $600, and now they can't.
  11. #91  
    Quote Originally Posted by Rome
    gharrod, palmone did NOT say anything to JP Morgan...As for JP Morgan's earnings revision, that's just a guess work because the analyst is being paid a lot of money to express his "opinion"...
    I find it hard to believe but I actually agree with something Rome posted!

    The JPM "analyst" was right about ONE thing ONCE - he's been wrong ever since and it wouldn't be surprising at all that he continues to be wrong in his "analysis".

    The ONE thing he got "right" was, when everyone else was pretty much saying "Yuck" as a prediction of a PalmOne quarterly result, he said "Yay!".

    But he got the REASON for the "Yay!" WRONG! His "analysis" and "channel checks" (ha ha ha!) said TREO 600 sales would be the reason for the "Yay!" but it turned out to be a highly-unexpected pop in PDA SALES that were the reason - TREO sales at the time were mundane.

    And his "analysis" for follow-on quarter(s) were as bad as they could be.

    Be Careful Paying Attention to "Analysts" - they're as wrong as they are right - at best.
  12. RobM's Avatar
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    #92  
    Quote Originally Posted by Rome
    Why is everyone so afraid of the $199 blackberry phone? No expansion slot, a proprietary OS, little third party software support, and a strange keyboard. These are enough reasons that enterprises will NOT want to buy this phone. Sure you can save a couple hundrend dollars on the hardware, if that much, but that's peanut for big companies deploying IT projects. From what I have learned, you save more than a couple hundrend dollars per user in software licensening cost alone in the first year, if you go with Good and Treo 600. For those who have deployed Good and Blackberry, please correct me if I got these numbers wrong.

    As for consumers, why would you want to be locked into using Blackberry email solution only? Don't you want to try snappermail or even versa mail? Not to mention the tens of thousands of Palm OS games and other software available out there.

    Sure, the Blackberry was first to market in wireless email solution, so was Wang first in the Wordprocessor market. This smartphone market is big enough to support more than a couple of players. And the palmone management can't be that stupid to not have an entry-level smartphone on the roadmap.
    No one is afraid, just pointing out the competition...
    I love my Treo and have used a BB before, hated the wheel thing, but it is beginning to look alot like the Treo...just without the pricetag...competition is good for everyone, the consumer, and the manufacturer, since it will cause P1 to come up with more innovative products, ahead of everyone else, at a price that everyone can afford.

    rob
  13. #93  
    Rome, dude, look at the following quote from the JPM coverage. It says it is in P1's view...look if you are some stock board guy that is just here to effect the price then tell us (like SeldomVisitor tries to do) and we can all live with that. Interesting that you seem to know a lot about P1 and the brokerage conversation then the JPM analyst does. Were you there?

    RIM's pricing strategy looks challenging for PalmOne (Treo), though not until 2005, in their view. In the near-term, they see continued strong demand for the Treo 600 and have nudged up their August shipment forecast to 250,000 units accordingly.

    I am still an executive in the technology sector and I know that companies hold analyst calls all the time and give guidance openly and legally. That is how it is done. It creates a lot of extra work on my part and my **** is on the line to produce what I promise. Rome it seems you have a beef with the tech world and analysts. What is the deal?
  14. #94  
    Hi folks,

    I think this is one of the most constructive and interesting threads I've seen in years of reading TreoCentral!! Keep it up, less flaming is good ;-)

    Anyway, I AM actually implementing various phases of corporate PDAs.
    And I have a foot in each camp - have already rolled out nearly 100 iPAQs (5500s, but soon moving to the 6315), personally have a Treo which I love, and Crackberries have a major footprint in the corporate headoffice already.
    So am trying to decide on 'the next generation' of PDA for Execs. And it is good timing - lots of interesting devices coming out in the next couple of months it seems.
    iPAQ6315 with an equivalent of Verizon WirelessMail is a good chance. Blackberry is an even chance. Treo650 is an outside chance.

    But all this talk of additional apps available is wide of the mark in my opinion!
    The last thing I want is execs installing their own wild and woolly games, apps etc and their PDA dying!! RELIABILITY IS EVERYTHING!!!! With our iPAQ fleet (Sales reps) you would not BELIEVE how many units are returned for repair/re-build every month!!

    So I want a fleet of 'locked down' PDA (well, as much as possible) that doesn't break down all the time. With a great battery, and wireless peripherals (because every physical plug is a potential breakage point).

    What I am saying is that I am far more concerned about the ongoing support costs than the initial outlay. That is where the 'Total Cost of Ownership' bites!
    And Blackberry, by it's very limited nature that you're all complaining about, is great for that reason. And the battery lasts a very long time, and if it goes flat, just re-charge it and it is all still there.

    PocketPC by comparison is more powerful, but so much more support! And when the battery is down to 50% you're taking a fair risk, and when it's down to 30% you're in 'russian roulette' territory.. then when it goes flat, it is fairly soon wiped back to factory settings, ouch!!

    Treo used to be a great geek toy - how many replacement 270/300s did you end up having?? Perhaps 2-3 on average?! That is just not reliable enough for corporate use.

    But the intruiging thing is that now the Treo 600/650 looks like it might have moved into that 'corporate acceptable' zone. And I'll give it every chance to succeed - I am a fan after all!
    So let me ask you - do you think Treo is reliable enough yet to safely deploy to hundreds of execs/managers of often doubtful IT prowess?

    Cheers all!!
    James.
  15. #95  
    Quote Originally Posted by jturnbul
    What I am saying is that I am far more concerned about the ongoing support costs than the initial outlay. That is where the 'Total Cost of Ownership' bites!
    If this is a serious concern, then hardware cannot be the only aspect of the equation that considered. BB is a ongoing issue for IT, requires client install and upkeep for users that is above and beyond what Goodlink provides. Now, that is not a Treo600 (or 650) argument, as Goodlink support the PPC too, but it does sink the BB.

    Just another thing to consider.
  16. #96  
    BTW Mossberg either didn't get the manual or is an ***** b/c entering email addresses couldn't be easier. Easier than on a Treo in fact. If you type "billg microsoft com" (exactly that way) the BB automatically converts it to billg@microsoft.com. Also, you needn't worry about ending sentences with periods or starting them with capital letters. You simply hit the spacebar twice and the BB puts a period after the prior word and starts the next one with a capital. When you use this kind of system it makes you wonder why everyone doesn't do it. It's so obviously beneficial and makes typing so much faster (I'm talking keyboards where you have to press shift or some other function key to get an @ or . type symbol) that it's hard to go back once you have it.

    As for the UI being slow, I can't comment b/c I haven't used the 7100t yet. However, on other BBs the response to selecting various funtions is perceptibly as "real time" as is the Treo. As for being unintuitive or complicated, I would say that it is no more complex than that of the Treo (i.e. the Palm OS). It's simply different. Therefore, as you get accustomed to it (which happens rapidly when you don't switch back and forth b/t devices) it seems as intuitive as any other OS.

    IMO.

    TM
  17. #97  
    You know what I like?? The way we are discussing these things in a common sense fashion lately. This is great banter of late. thank you all for the input. I am interested in the wealth or experience and opinions we all bring to the table.
  18. #98  
    Quote Originally Posted by gharrod
    Rome, dude, look at the following quote from the JPM coverage. It says it is in P1's view...look if you are some stock board guy that is just here to effect the price then tell us (like SeldomVisitor tries to do) and we can all live with that. Interesting that you seem to know a lot about P1 and the brokerage conversation then the JPM analyst does. Were you there?

    RIM's pricing strategy looks challenging for PalmOne (Treo), though not until 2005, in their view. In the near-term, they see continued strong demand for the Treo 600 and have nudged up their August shipment forecast to 250,000 units accordingly.

    I am still an executive in the technology sector and I know that companies hold analyst calls all the time and give guidance openly and legally. That is how it is done. It creates a lot of extra work on my part and my **** is on the line to produce what I promise. Rome it seems you have a beef with the tech world and analysts. What is the deal?
    I am not here to affect anybody....I am here to share with you guys what I think. If you choose to invest based on some Wall Street analyst's opinion, it is your money and you can do whatever you wish. I am just giving you my 2 cents, and you can take it for whatever it is worth.

    As for the conversation between the JP Morgan analyst and P1 management, I never said that I was there and, for the record, I wasn't there so I don't what they said to each other. However, I do know what FD is and what it stands for. If P1 did share new financial guidance with JP and nobody else, P1 management is breaking the law and the management needs to be locked up.

    I have no beef with the tech world or any analysts. However, I have been an investor long enough to know that, in order to be successful in investments, I need to do my own research and make my own decisions. Analyst opinions are fine, but they are what they are, just opinions, not facts.

    I love my Treo 600 and hope P1 do well. I just think this new Blackberry phone is not that big a deal. P1 will come out with their own entry level phone in due time, and RIM will come out their new stuff after that as well. This world is all about choices. Some like Coke while others prefer Pepsi. Heck, some even like Mr. Pibb!!!
  19. TxDot's Avatar
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    #99  
    Quote Originally Posted by Rome
    Heck, some even like Mr. Pibb!!!
  20. #100  
    Quote Originally Posted by anthonymoody
    BTW Mossberg either didn't get the manual or is an ***** b/c entering email addresses couldn't be easier. Easier than on a Treo in fact. If you type "billg microsoft com" (exactly that way) the BB automatically converts it to billg@microsoft.com. ...

    As for the UI being slow, I can't comment b/c I haven't used the 7100t yet. However, on other BBs the response to selecting various funtions is perceptibly as "real time" as is the Treo. As for being unintuitive or complicated, I would say that it is no more complex than that of the Treo (i.e. the Palm OS). It's simply different. Therefore, as you get accustomed to it (which happens rapidly when you don't switch back and forth b/t devices) it seems as intuitive as any other OS.

    TM
    I don't think Mossberg complained about entering e-mail addresses -- he was talking about web URL's (and things like proper names) using the predictive text algorithm and the limited keyboard (i.e., in this sense, this will not be like other Blackberries). In general, I thought the point he was making in that part of the article was simply that the new keyboard has some neat tricks, but is not a substitute for the full QWERTY in all circumstances, including some that come up fairly often.

    As to the UI, I don't necessarily think "slower" in Mossberg-speak means less "real time," but rather slower to navigate because fewer hard-button choices are available, making deeper nesting and more key combinations necessary. It's not just the actual differences in how to accomplish specific tasks using the UI, but real-world simplicity in operation of the device as a whole that matters. You make a good point regarding the need for deeper familiarity with the UI before drawing final conclusions, but from my own Blackberry experience (which was a very long one), I always found the UI to come up short compared to the Palm OS. In particular, the Treo series has been a marked improvement over Blackberry for everything but e-mail for me. Even in e-mail, it has strengths in a few areas where the Blackberry is weak.

    All this is not to say that Mossberg is infallible or that the Treo rules and the Blackberry stinks -- such judgments are very subjective. I am frankly ecstatic for increased competition in this space. The new Blackberry and the forthcoming Pocket PC Phone Edition devices that have keyboards are terrific developments, whether one moves to them or stays with Palm OS devices that are sure to be improved as a result of the competition.
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