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  1.    #1  
    I found this quote in a Reuters News Article:

    "Sales so far have been slow for smartphones, such as palmOne Inc.'s (PLMO.O: Quote, Profile, Research) Treo 600 phone, which sports a screen the size of a saltine cracker. But industry analysts suggested that growth may take off as phone makers offer more choices"

    Is this guy on crack? It took me a month to get my Treo 600 and the local Sprint store is still out of stock!
    If you understand, things are just as they are. If you do not understand, things are just as they are.

  2. #2  
    You are confusing lack of availability or "sold out" with large sales.

    As a geek trying to get one that's fine but if, as with Reuters, you are interested in the financial side of things that could be a very costly mistake.

    ====

    Unavailable simply means unavailable - it does NOT mean palmOne is selling gajillions of a device. Thus, for example, Sprint regularly goes "Out of Stock" with the TREO 600 - are they selling thousands upon thousands of them? We don't yet know, however the best evidence we have is "No, they're simply ordering a small quantity at a time from palmOne".
  3.    #3  
    I understand what you mean and you may be right, however, I was under the impression that PalmOne could not make enough Treo 600's to meet demand. This impression was influenced by articles in the New York Times, New York Times Magazine, Wired, and countless other magazines and news sources (both online and in the real world).

    If a company can't make enough product to satisfy the demand, then as an investor, I would feel confident that the product is selling extremely well. I would be elated and anything but dissapointed by "slow sales".

    I believe PalmOne has ramped up production and *still* can't satisfy demand.

    I'm inclined to believe that the reporter who wrote that article has a prejudice against Microsoft competitors. Either that or he is just a lousy reporter. Maybe both.
    If you understand, things are just as they are. If you do not understand, things are just as they are.

  4. #4  
    You are right about not meeting demand, however if I recall from the last quarterly conference call they mentioned something like 50,000 units sold. That's a pitifully small number compared to normal cellphones.
    Main Phone: Treo 270/600/650/700w/700p/750v/Motorola Q/iPhone
    Tried but sold: Motorola Q/Nokia E61/700wx/HTC TyTN/Treo 680
  5.    #5  
    Perhaps 50,000 units sold is a small amount in comparison to cellphones, but in comparison to other "smartphones" (or convergence devices) that is a nice fat number and I doubt anyone else comes close within that same time frame and price point. If they had enough to meet demand, it would be an even higher figure.

    Saying that the Treo 600 must compete with your basic vanilla flavored cell phone is ridiculous and to compare sales numbers is ludicrous. That's like saying Plasma HD TV's must compete with all televisions regardless of their capabilities. To be fair, everything must be judged with peers in its own niche, device catagory, and/or capability.
    If you understand, things are just as they are. If you do not understand, things are just as they are.

  6. #6  
    My understanding is that Sony Ericsson sold 1 million P800 models (the previous version of their P900) in the first year it was available. So saying that the Treo is a nice fat number is not correct by comparision.

    I agree that the Treo is great and selling great, but it's hard to really judge how "hot" it is or not when Handspring seems to be making such small numbers. I think even palmOne would admit that the smartphone market has not taken off yet, but everyone seems to be hoping that it will soon.

    Originally posted by kaffeen
    Perhaps 50,000 units sold is a small amount in comparison to cellphones, but in comparison to other "smartphones" (or convergence devices) that is a nice fat number and I doubt anyone else comes close within that same time frame and price point. If they had enough to meet demand, it would be an even higher figure.

    Saying that the Treo 600 must compete with your basic vanilla flavored cell phone is ridiculous and to compare sales numbers is ludicrous. That's like saying Plasma HD TV's must compete with all televisions regardless of their capabilities. To be fair, everything must be judged with peers in its own niche, device catagory, and/or capability.
    Main Phone: Treo 270/600/650/700w/700p/750v/Motorola Q/iPhone
    Tried but sold: Motorola Q/Nokia E61/700wx/HTC TyTN/Treo 680
  7. #7  
    Here're stats for cellphone sales for 2003 and 4th Quarter 2003:

    -- http://www.idc.com/getdoc.jhtml?cont...4_02_02_142039

    Note that palmOne isn't mentioned in the smartphone category.
  8. #8  
    one million of those extremely expensive phones? I HIGHLY doubt that is true.

    there are 200 million in the US, and only 1/3-1/4 (say 60 million) would be even interested in buyin a new cell phone. Same for Europe.

    that's like sayin 1 out of 100 cell phones was a P800...NOT!
  9. #9  
    FWIW, I distinctly recall repeatedly seeing of a figure of 7%, in terms of the US population armed with a standard PDA. (All via Google news links, via their "news" section-- within the past month or so) The 7% figure stuck in my mind because it shocked this geek. If it's that low for **standard** PDAs, I can only surmise the pda+cell combo is even lower.

    As for the Treo 600, while it's manna for folks here-- keep in mind, Verizon remains #1, yet on a good day, their phones get "jazzy" with a mere camera deal built in. (I'm ignoring MS-based the-hourglass-is-your-friend phones.) Most folks look at ya like ya need a brain transplant when you start mentioning "phones" in excess of $200-$300. (yes, I know, but we're talking non-powerusers).

    Go figure, eh.
  10.    #10  
    SV, those are interesting numbers. It does indicate that Handspring opted for an extremely small number of Treo's to be produced (even when compared with other "converged" devices). To be honest, I'm a little surprised by the numbers, I never would have thought *anyone* produced that number of converged devices (i.e. Nokia's 5 million plus). It's seems odd that there are that many people walking around with a PDA phone. Those are definitely a very secretive 5 million persons because I am one of the few in my area (and other areas I've traveled to) that I know to use any type of PDA phone. I wonder if those numbers need to be further qualified. Their term for "converged" mobile device is rather loose. I suspect that a great percentage of those numbers are camera phones with some calendar functionality and little else. Now that I can believe. I see camera phones everywhere.

    Regardless, I don't think there is anything "slow" about those numbers (particulary when the numbers are taken cumulatively). In fact I find them rather impressive.

    Although unknown, I believe Handspring (now PalmOne) probably makes up most of the "Other" catagory of vendors whose numbers are second only to Nokia. I think the success of the Treo is unparalleled when everything is factored (i.e. production/supply/demand/quality et al).
    If you understand, things are just as they are. If you do not understand, things are just as they are.

  11. #11  
    Although, I can't confirm the P800 numbers for sure, I think you are highly underestimating the popularity of cellphones in Europe and Asia. Everyone has one there! I was on a business trip in Europe a few weeks ago and saw several people there with both P800, P900, and high-end Nokias. The Nokia 6600 (their current high-end symbian phone everywhere but the U.S.) was in ads on TV, newspapers, airports, etc... During that 10 days I was the only one I saw with a Treo.


    Originally posted by steven975
    one million of those extremely expensive phones? I HIGHLY doubt that is true.

    there are 200 million in the US, and only 1/3-1/4 (say 60 million) would be even interested in buyin a new cell phone. Same for Europe.

    that's like sayin 1 out of 100 cell phones was a P800...NOT!
    Main Phone: Treo 270/600/650/700w/700p/750v/Motorola Q/iPhone
    Tried but sold: Motorola Q/Nokia E61/700wx/HTC TyTN/Treo 680
  12. #12  
    > ...I believe Handspring (now PalmOne) probably makes up most
    > of the "Other" catagory of vendors whose numbers are second
    > only to Nokia...

    I believe 100,000 units was necessary to be listed with one's own name - as such, palmOne could not be the major portion of "Other".
  13. #13  
    From the idc link posted above:

    Top 5 vendors converged mobile shipments and market share 2003:

    3: Sony Ericsson 815,047 8.5%

    Since SE's only converged device is the P800/P900, it's close enough to me for 1 million. When you look at those numbers, the Treo isn't looking as good. I think here in the U.S. we have a very distorted view of the cellphone market.

    Originally posted by steven975
    one million of those extremely expensive phones? I HIGHLY doubt that is true.

    there are 200 million in the US, and only 1/3-1/4 (say 60 million) would be even interested in buyin a new cell phone. Same for Europe.

    that's like sayin 1 out of 100 cell phones was a P800...NOT!
    Main Phone: Treo 270/600/650/700w/700p/750v/Motorola Q/iPhone
    Tried but sold: Motorola Q/Nokia E61/700wx/HTC TyTN/Treo 680
  14.    #14  
    I believe 100,000 units was necessary to be listed with one's own name - as such, palmOne could not be the major portion of "Other".
    I don't see where that stipulation exists. I understand how you might surmise that, however, it's just as possible that they limited their research/report to certain vendors.
    If you understand, things are just as they are. If you do not understand, things are just as they are.

  15. #15  
    The Reuter story is, simply put, biased. Below are my reasons:

    - The article didn't mention anything about Palm OS devices using Good Technology. As of today, there are no Pocket PC devices that can run Good email application. Treo 600 has been doing it for months.
    - As of 11/30/03, Palm/Handspring shipped 100,000 units of treo 600. That's really very impressive considering that the Sprint was the only carrier with any kind of inventory at the time. Now we have Sprint, ATT, Cingular, and TMobile on board in the U.S.. Treo 600 was only launched in late Sep. 2003.
    - This 100,000 number is even more impressive considering that Blackberry has only recently reached 1 million subscriber mark. Blackberry has been around since, what, 1998. Palm shipped 10% of that in less than 3 months with supply constraint.
    - Don't believe IDC's numbers too much. They define converged devices very different from you and I. Basically anything with PDA function built in is considered a smartphone.
    - To the best of my knowledge, no single smartphone model has sold more than 500,000 units in the world. Treo 600/610 (if the rumor is true) may just be the first one to do it.

    I personally believe that Treo 600 will do to the cellphone/smartphone market what the original Macintosh market did to the PC market. Only time will tell.

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