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  1.    #1  
    I think this will be the best comparison to see whether or not the Treo600 will be successful. It should be intriguing to see Orange's sales figures in 6 months for the Treo 600 against the MPx200, as it will be selling both the devices in Europe. I really hope the Treo60 turns into a hit. It would be a nice send-off for Handspring as it leaves the stage...
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  2. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #2  
    Are you insane?

    The mpx is half the treo600 price with several times the size of worldwide distribution.

    If MS and friends can bring the price down to under $300, the market share game is over.
  3. #3  
    What's with this recurring assumption that only one device would survive?! These devices are not the same, they do different things and the things they both do they do differently. Thus survival is not based on price. Certainly, many wireless phones, as well as just about everything else, vary in price and you don't see only the cheapest survive
  4. #4  
    I have to agree with silverado. They look like they will be catering to 2 different markets.
    Sean Dotson, PE
    http://www.sdotson.com
  5. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #5  
    what two markets? left handed phone user and right handed phone user? lol

    It's a phone period. The current market might be large enough for the two models not to have overlap consumer preference yet, but it will collide soon enough.

    I find it amusing how everybody is worrying about mpx already. It's Microsoft US debut unlike treo. But then again Microsoft is the best when it's the underdog. mpx is nowhere near guaranteed win, that's what makes it exciting to watch.

    I tell you when smartphone is unstopable in the US. When the next version of mpx is out next year for less than $250 with BT/camera It'll be game over for treo. By then smartphone software library will include GPS capability and more of the most popular PPC productivity apps.
  6. #6  
    The phones ARE for very overlapping user segments, but why do you think only one would survive?! People have different tastes.

    If your logic made any sense at all there would only be, oh, 2 or 3 cell phones out there, one for each price range.

    Get real!!
    Last edited by silverado; 09/20/2003 at 12:11 PM.
  7. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #7  
    The market will only support one or two platforms. (platfroms, not models)

    Nobody is betting POS will make it as phone platform. Mpx is Microsoft opening bid to dominate the phone market after lesson learned from SPV. That is the explanation why people are watching this mpx.

    POS will only last 1.5-2 years at best in phone space, before the cost of competing becoming too expensive for them to keep playing the losing game.
  8. #8  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    The market will only support one or two platforms. (platfroms, not models)
    You give no evidence to support this at all. There are tens of phone models (platforms) with different UIs. Why did they all survive?

    Java is surviving on the handheld, despite MS's efforts to kill it, and thus provides for a common platform on top of whatever real platform is below.

    You're just too used to the MS monopoly model, which won't work for phones.
  9. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #9  
    Because the phone market is about to be transformed. It won't be about who can make the best phone call and have cute ring tone anymore. Everybody can do that.

    It will be about applications and network interconnect. (It's surprising you can't see this, since you often taut how treo has this or that apps)

    So basically very soon people will say: yeah it's a cute phone, but will it run my fav apps and talk seamlessly to my desktop/corporate server.

    majority of current cell phone can't run apps. They are a phone with gimmick feature, not a phone with handheld computing feature. And handheld computing is about installing apps, hence platform uniformity.

    The current smartphone platform is exactly like desktop computing in the 80's. There are plenty of contenders. Having the biggest market share won't guarantee future success. (Think Apple, Amiga)

    Microsoft business model IMO is far better for phone industry than Nokia/HS model. Microsoft force standard among hardware manufacturer, which then lead to Linux entrance. (happens in PC, happens to some extent in PDA)

    Nokia/HS model are like Apple/Amiga. Wintel model lead to much better desktop computing than those two can ever create. Hardware/software tied in sucks.
  10. #10  
    I don't see how the MPx200 can be a serious phone, PDA, or emailer without an input method other than the keypad. I think this is the phone's fatal flaw.

    With the Treo 600 the keyboard is most efficient for entering lengthy text for any who can type. The touch screen is a must for cutting and pasting text, phone #'s, etc. and for free-hand drawing.

    Even if the T600 is $100 or $150 more, it is worth it. The price difference is even less if you use it for business (which I think is the target market) and buy it with pre-tax dollars.

    Plus, it's an awfully plain looking flip phone. I think the original Motorola StarTac looked more stylish than this one!
  11. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #11  
    T9.

    And yes, this is what majority of high end phones have. Will it be adequate jotting down lecture of Greek literature in Latin? probably not. But It is the better compromise for short text input + making phone call.

    As for thumboard as the best input option for full feature PDAphone, that has been debated to death. And no it's not the best option for composing doctoral thesis in ancient mesopotamian either. Full scale HWR or folding keyboard is. Thumboard only serve a very small range of task and the rest of time it takes up too much space and add unnecessary complexity.
  12. #12  
    Originally posted by purpleX

    As for thumboard as the best input option for full feature PDAphone, that has been debated to death. And no it's not the best option for composing doctoral thesis in ancient mesopotamian either. Full scale HWR or folding keyboard is. Thumboard only serve a very small range of task and the rest of time it takes up too much space and add unnecessary complexity.
    Surely we can all agree that ideas of space and complexity differ between folks and therefore this issue can be put to rest?
  13. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #13  
    I thought the question was which one will sell more, not if people has different taste.

    Obviously thumboard acceptance over the year has been pretty small.
  14. #14  
    PurpleX, how does the MPX have twice the worldwide distribution? It is only GSM right? Treo 600 will be both GSM and CDMA so it can be distributed anywhere in the world by any manufacturer that wants to sell it. CDMA is more prevelant in the US by a huge margin currently so the Treo already has a huge advantage in US distribution.

    Also since the MPX is not using PPC smartphone as the OS and has switched to a pure Smartphone OS I doubt that many of the applications will port from PPC without heavy mods.

    I don't think the MPX is going to have the flexibility and feature sets that the Treo 600 will have so that is why it is cheaper. Microsoft is probably going to lose money until they either get market share and jack up the price, or just jack up the price.

    Microsoft also does not treat the developer community well, and tries to squash the inovative developers by copying their technology and including it in the OS. So I doubt you will see anywhere near the apps the Palm has, ever, unless palm totally dies.

    As for BT, the treo has the spot for the chip, just has to sodered to the board and upgrade the OS to support. Or you could just get a BT/Flash Memorry SD card and use it in the treo if you want it sooner. Also the Treo 600 CDMA will support GPS location at release and not have to wait for the next release. I don't know if the GSM version will (and don't care since I will get the CDMA anyway).

    The reason why the MPX is cheaper than the Treo 600 is because it is not as powerful, flexible, and will not have any real application support at inception. If it was priced the same, no one would buy it.

    Microsoft has not dominated every market that it has entered. The PS2 still outsells the XBox by a huge amount and Sony is making money on the PS2 while Microsoft isn't on the Xbox. Why? Because the PS2 had the more software at inception, XBox Live has to be paid for monthly, and PS2 is ran on cheaper hardware.

    Microsoft hasn't dominated the Web Server or Data Center environment either because everyone in that industry doesn't consider their products to be carrier grade, like Sun and Linux. I worked for a company that MS offered to give them a free data center just so that they could say that they had a deployed data center in a carrier grade environment and the company turned them down and just purchased the gear because every educated Network person knows you don't deploy MS and expect it to be available on a 24x7x365 basis.
  15. #15  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    I thought the question was which one will sell more, not if people has different taste.

    Obviously thumboard acceptance over the year has been pretty small.
    Not to feed the discussion of this too much, but there's a reason why the thumbboards haven't caught on everywhere yet.

    The price point of anything with a thumbboard is several hundred dollars and not free with a new contract. This is changing with the Treo 300 and 270 getting cheaper. The masses didn't like the Treo 300 so much because it was more PDA shaped than phone shaped. The Treo 600 will fix that, but it will be priced outside of most users range for awhile.

    Also the general user doesn't need or want an internet connection in their pockets today due to the greater cost and bulk of the phone. T9 would be fine if you don't have e-mail. T9 fails when entering URLs (it can't predict those) as well as entering special characters. And yes I like to have easy access to brackets, braces, parenthesis, etc. All of a sudden 9 keys have 7 options for each key. That's just not fun for the whole family.
  16. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #16  
    Originally posted by lnichols
    how does the MPX have twice the worldwide distribution? It is only GSM right? Treo 600 will be both GSM and CDMA so it can be distributed anywhere in the world by any manufacturer that wants to sell it. CDMA is more prevelant in the US by a huge margin currently so the Treo already has a huge advantage in US distribution.
    Motorola will have far bigger european and asia pacific distribution (Orange, Optimus, MTM) than treo (orange only so far). Treo however will most likely have more US carrier than mpx initially.

    Also since the MPX is not using PPC smartphone as the OS and has switched to a pure Smartphone OS I doubt that many of the applications will port from PPC without heavy mods.
    apparently this hasn't deter the european market to snap up SPV before, even with near zero apps, compare to several hundred apps now. Smartphone will have the basic productivity apps + game covered far better than Nokia phone, that's the selling point. It won't be able to compete against treo from apps point of view alone. But than again, it already has better game and multimedia for the kids. Who knows.

    I don't think the MPX is going to have the flexibility and feature sets that the Treo 600 will have so that is why it is cheaper. Microsoft is probably going to lose money until they either get market share and jack up the price, or just jack up the price.
    mpx has faster processor and more memory. As a handheld computer is is more than treo. I don't think we have to worry about Microsoft going to run out of money any time soon do we?

    Microsoft also does not treat the developer community well, and tries to squash the inovative developers by copying their technology and including it in the OS. So I doubt you will see anywhere near the apps the Palm has, ever, unless palm totally dies.
    Palm app scene is already dying, scan the new release chart vs PPC new release chart. And I am not sure what you mean by Microsoft doesn't treat their dev. community well. They are the biggest software company in the planet known to throw extravaganz developer conference, you only need to scan the net to see the size of developer community for PPC and smartphone and compare it to POS. Microsoft doesn't become that big by being stupid and alienating their developer.

    As for BT, the treo has the spot for the chip, just has to sodered to the board and upgrade the OS to support. Or you could just get a BT/Flash Memorry SD card and use it in the treo if you want it sooner. Also the Treo 600 CDMA will support GPS location at release and not have to wait for the next release. I don't know if the GSM version will (and don't care since I will get the CDMA anyway).
    I believe it when I see it. If it is that easy, HS would already announce it. Adding built in BT would require another FCC approval and another round of carrier qualification. As for BT driver for OS 5.0? Let's just say I don't think it will ever happen, nobody will write a driver for treo, there is no market. (no the market size won't be bigger than a thousand cards/ Q)

    The reason why the MPX is cheaper than the Treo 600 is because it is not as powerful, flexible, and will not have any real application support at inception. If it was priced the same, no one would buy it.
    the mpx uses TI omap 710 200mHz with 32/32 MB, 176 x 220 screen. As oppose to omap 310..uhm...

    what do you mean 'real' application? as oppose to 'fake' application? It has better internet/multimedia/gaming apps than treo already. It has clervue to see any office file natively. (all basic top ten palm apps are covered too, picture viewer, outliner, text editor, wallet, car maintenance, calculator etc..) The basic are all there, because the development tool are similar to PPC. Check handango.com or smartphone.net

    Microsoft has not dominated every market that it has entered. The PS2 still outsells the XBox by a huge amount and Sony is making money on the PS2 while Microsoft isn't on the Xbox. Why? Because the PS2 had the more software at inception, XBox Live has to be paid for monthly, and PS2 is ran on cheaper hardware.
    that never stops them to keep tryin and succeeding doesn't it?

    Microsoft hasn't dominated the Web Server or Data Center environment either because everyone in that industry doesn't consider their products to be carrier grade, like Sun and Linux. I worked for a company that MS offered to give them a free data center just so that they could say that they had a deployed data center in a carrier grade environment and the company turned them down and just purchased the gear because every educated Network person knows you don't deploy MS and expect it to be available on a 24x7x365 basis.
    So are you betting on POS and Symbian? lol.
  17. #17  
    The problem with comparing the two is the use of them. Treo is for those who are all business and little play or those who just like to show off...you know who you are . WinCE is for those who play more than work. The utility for organization is poorer than that of the treo. The games for WinCE, despite the fact that there are less, are better. Personally, I prefer treo for not only form factor, but theere are some utilities I desperately need that are only available for Palm. The fact that it is combined with a phone is more appealing than just a palm with wireless web.
    Treo 300, Treo 600 - Sprint

    I dream in code and TCP/IP sequence numbers.
  18. #18  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    The market will only support one or two platforms. (platfroms, not models)



    POS will only last 1.5-2 years at best in phone space, before the cost of competing becoming too expensive for them to keep playing the losing game.
    you need to advise fidelity who recently purchased another 11% of palm, and don't forget to pass your rationality onto sony and kyocera, of course samsung, one of the best run companies in the world, they seem to have it all wrong. those poor slobs! you would think they should know better.
    Last edited by JTREOB; 09/20/2003 at 11:36 PM.
  19. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #19  
    Fidelity obtain their share at discounted price (instant profit), and has the right to dump those at any time they wish. Who desn't want free money.

    The question to ask, why did Palm Inc. need the 30M cash infusion? (oh but of course because the bleed 50M this quarter out of less than 300M cash)

    Not very liquid is it? So time to get busy and print some more of those stock, screw dilution.
  20. #20  
    [QUOTE]Originally posted by purpleX
    Fidelity obtain their share at discounted price (instant profit), and has the right to dump those at any time they wish. Who desn't want free money.

    The question to ask, why did Palm Inc. need the 30M cash infusion? (oh but of course because the bleed 50M this quarter out of less than 300M cash)

    Not very liquid is it? So time to get busy and print some more of those stock, screw dilution.
    [/QUOT

    did i say palm was in good shape finacially?

    why do you ramble about things you know little of?

    if you took the time to learn instead of spout, you would find that there are restrictions on fidelity's ability to sell its ownership in palm, and as far as the discount, it is not large enough to benefit fidelity unless palms stock were to moderately rise.

    considerations such as the critical variable called opportunity lost are at play here, and if you knew how markets truely operated you would also understand that as a large stock holder/owner, you can't dump large blocks of your stock without causing negative ramifications to your holdings. i know fidelity understands these things. you should have before you spouted, as well.

    it's just not as simple as you tried to make it, but then maybe thats why you made it.

    but please, you need to inform kyocera, sony, samsung and others how wrong they are running with that palm os.. your wasting your time here. and frankly my time as well.
    Last edited by JTREOB; 09/21/2003 at 01:22 AM.
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