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  1.    #1  
    Hi folks,

    Longtime Palm OS supporter/user. I know that Sprint's Centro sold better than expected. Wonder how AT&T version is doing.

    I am prompted to ask because a friend pointed me to the hour long video at the Apple computer home page presenting the 3rd party software launch (really the software developers' kit launch) for the iPhone.

    http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/iphoneroadmap/

    It looks absolutely spectacular. There is no device, period, which does all that the iPhone was doing with even the few demo software apps demonstrated on the video. Each, supposedly, was developed in a mere 2 weeks. If the iPhone follows through with large scale 3rd party software offerings, that'll take away the last thing Palm had going for it -- fantastic availability of useful software.

    As they say in baseball, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. But I think she's warming up backstage, so Palm is running out of time.

    So back to original question: is Centro doing well enough to keep Palm afloat until they launch the marvelous new OS and dazzle the world once again with Palm prowess?

    -- Josh
  2. TimmyB's Avatar
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    #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by steinbej View Post
    Hi folks,

    Longtime Palm OS supporter/user. I know that Sprint's Centro sold better than expected. Wonder how AT&T version is doing.

    I am prompted to ask because a friend pointed me to the hour long video at the Apple computer home page presenting the 3rd party software launch (really the software developers' kit launch) for the iPhone.

    http://www.apple.com/quicktime/qtv/iphoneroadmap/

    It looks absolutely spectacular. There is no device, period, which does all that the iPhone was doing with even the few demo software apps demonstrated on the video. Each, supposedly, was developed in a mere 2 weeks. If the iPhone follows through with large scale 3rd party software offerings, that'll take away the last thing Palm had going for it -- fantastic availability of useful software.

    As they say in baseball, it ain't over 'til the fat lady sings. But I think she's warming up backstage, so Palm is running out of time.

    So back to original question: is Centro doing well enough to keep Palm afloat until they launch the marvelous new OS and dazzle the world once again with Palm prowess?

    -- Josh
    While what you saw is indeed very cool, the iPhone hype is long past, as well. Most people who "had to have one", already do. (PS- I'm a huge Apple fan, so don't think I'm bashing them when I say this.) These new 3rd party apps will help, but won't generate a whole lot more buzz for Apple. As a matter of fact, I'm sure there are people on the iPhone boards, just as there are people here critical of Palm, who are criticizing Apple for not including these features automatically and complaining about why they have to pay some 3rd party developer 20-40 bucks to do so!!!

    I, for one, will be very surprised if Palm doesn't make it. It might have to change the way it thinks about it's business, as it already has shown with it's store closings and various other events, but I believe it will make it. Now, Josh, get out there and buy that Centro!
    Last edited by TimmyB; 03/10/2008 at 09:05 AM. Reason: sorry, used a naughty word without realizing it!
    tim
  3. Micael's Avatar
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    #3  
    Apple has failed to dominate the pc market, with all their slick apps and cool abilities. They may have a good chunk of the smartphone market at some point, but because of their continued closed proprietary approach, they'll only capture the Apple fans they already have.

    Btw, can you provide a couple of specific things the iPhone was doing in that demo thats never been done before? I'm on my work pc, and can't load qtime to view.

    JMHO
    The Law of Logical Argument: Anything is possible if you don't know what you are talking about.
  4. #4  
    According to the WST (Wall Street Journal) Palm has dropped to 9% of the smartphone market with RIM having a 41% lead and Apple now at about 25%.
  5. #5  
    well this is a bit unscientific, but I have proclip holders listed up on ebay for many of the smarpthones out there as well as the iphone. The basics include the blackberries, Q & Q9, Blackjack, Mogul, Centro and then the iphone. The Centro has about 10% less views than the iphone and the iphone's auction has been up a day longer. The iphone's auction also lists it with the Touch, so that could skew the numbers even more. The Centro and iphone are getting the most clicks out of any of them.
    Pixi: Sold. Pre: Passed off to another rep. Touchpad: Just a toy until Cloud syncing arrives, and a better doc editor.
  6. #6  
    Until Palm releases the actual numbers (probably next investor call), we won't really know, but doing a simple Google News search for "Palm Centro sales" brings up tons of info...
    In a buyer survey, Palm found they have twice as many women Centro customers as they do with users of its traditional Treo products, which are more business friendly.

    The number of under-35 Centro users has also increased by 150 percent compared to other Palm users. And Palm found that 75 percent of Centro users moved up from a traditional phone, essentially all new customers for Palm.
    S&P Equity Research Upgrades Palm Inc (PALM) to Hold
    The success of the Centro, however, has had an impact on margins. Gross margin for the third quarter fell to 29.9% from 35.6% a year ago. But Colligan believes it is more important for the moment to woo new customers.
    "We felt it was more important to gain new dedicated Palm users. We are sacrificing a little bit of margin. It is driving the mix a little differently,"
    It's doing very well for them but obviously they need to follow up and keep following up e.g. "perfect execution" of new devices as some analysts have said.

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  7. TimmyB's Avatar
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    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by zelgo View Post
    The centro "sold better than expected" but is was no where near enough to help Sprint, which posted record losses.

    There are just so many competitors out there, that I don't see Palm ever dominating the market again. I have yet to see anyone else in NYC with a Centro. I see TONS of iPhones and Blackberries.

    Plus, Google phones are on the horizon...
    Point 1: There's not a phone invented yet that will help a company out of a $30 Billion hole, so to say that is on Palm, or any other manufacturer, is not valid, in my honest opinion.

    Point 2: NYC isn't exactly representative of the rest of the 300 million that live in this country. NYC is entirely about business, which would explain the BB dominance; it is also about trendy, which would explain the iPhones in big numbers. No, Palm won't dominate ever again; I don't believe anyone will. The only way to dominate is to do all of the illegal, immoral, and unethical business practices that MS has been able to get away with for the past two decades, and I really don't want Palm to go there.

    Point 3: You are correct, here. Palm AND Apple AND R.I.M. had ALL better be planning for the next invasion. Just like in sports, you are only as good as your last performance; If Google hits a home run in their opening at-bat, it could be trouble for all of them.
    tim
  8. #8  
    You know, I almost raided the kids' college funds to get an iPhone when it launched. I am an Apple fan and it was the first phone that I could see integrating/synching perfectly with my iMac.

    However, it was just too expensive for me. I already have a 5G ipod and a shuffle, so I didn't need something for my music. And it wasn't 3G. That's when I decided to hold off until iPhone v2. However, during the waiting period, the Centro came out. Perfectly priced, plenty of apps and 3G speed.

    The problem is that Apple has a marketing team which would rival the ancient Roman army in effectiveness. Apple knows how to build the hype machine and get it out to the masses. They know their target market and exploit it. Granted, they make a great product, but it's the marketing that nets them their profits. Palm would need to do something similar to regain some of their market share, and I just don't see them as a company to get it done. I'll hold out hope, however, as I love my Centro and would love to see some improvements for v2.0.
    Last edited by decypher44; 03/11/2008 at 01:55 PM.
  9. #9  
    That's part of Palm's problem. They're marketing sucks. That whole multi-tasking commercial with the little people is about as stupid as can be. They've lost touch with their customers and their ability to connect to the market, and they'll have a long uphill battle if their Linux OS doesn't have a much better marketing campaign than the Centro's.

    Apple makes a good product, but I wouldn't call it great as long as it is somewhat crippled. Bricking people's phones because they unlocked them? Web apps? Just that whole stream of control freak thinking is enough to annoy quite a few people, and in my eyes what prevents the iPhone from being great. Just like when they made that last ditch effort to allow 3rd party mfg's to make computers. It's like they start to get it after it's too late in those respects. If they'd just trust outsiders to take their good product, run with it, and make it great; they'd have another market that they've alienated in the past and present.

    Quote Originally Posted by decypher44 View Post
    The problem is that Apple has a marketing team which would rival the ancient Roman army in effectiveness. Apple knows how to build the hype machine and get it out to the masses. They know their target market and exploit it. Granted, they make a great product, but it's the marketing that nets them their profits. Palm would need to do something similar to regain some of their market share, and I just don't see them as a company to get it done. I'll hold out hope, however, as I love my Centro and would love to see some improvements for v2.0.
    Pixi: Sold. Pre: Passed off to another rep. Touchpad: Just a toy until Cloud syncing arrives, and a better doc editor.
  10. #10  
    After reading these posts it sounds like Palm needs a Nextel style campaign, Done! BB or iPhone not required.
  11.    #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by TimmyB View Post
    Now, Josh, get out there and buy that Centro!
    I bought a $79 factory refurbished AT&T Treo 680. No Centro for me, but hoping Centro for many others keeps Palm afloat.
    -- Josh
  12.    #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by Micael View Post
    Apple has failed to dominate the pc market, with all their slick apps and cool abilities. They may have a good chunk of the smartphone market at some point, but because of their continued closed proprietary approach, they'll only capture the Apple fans they already have.

    Btw, can you provide a couple of specific things the iPhone was doing in that demo thats never been done before? I'm on my work pc, and can't load qtime to view.

    JMHO
    Apple's market share of the personal computing world has shot up over the past few years. Rising from 4% of the market to 8 or 9% is a huge leap given how many gazillion Windows PC's there are out there and how so many are bought in corporate drone-like fashion. The success of the iPod and iTunes (store and software) as entrance devices has been huge. Doesn't hurt that the Mac laptops and desktops just work and have no viruses. Anyway, I I don't think Apple is failing in the general PC market. They just have a long way to go and a VERY large mountain to climb.

    For specific features, it really is helpful to see the astounding video on a PC with Quicktime (or a browser enabled with a Quicktime viewer). But for starters, how about the iPhone as motion-sensitive gaming device like the Nintendo Wii? That was amazing. Enjoy the video!
    -- Josh
  13. TimmyB's Avatar
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    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by BCVP View Post
    After reading these posts it sounds like Palm needs a Nextel style campaign, Done! BB or iPhone not required.
    I've got it!!! All these poor smartphone users, marching like drones, enter a big auditorium, while big brother on the screen preaches to them the value of using only the iPhone! Then, this girl, being chased by storm-troopers, runs in with a Centro in her hand and...

    Oh, well. It was just a thought.
    tim
  14. #14  
    where'd you buy that? I'd pick one up just to have for travel purposes.
    Quote Originally Posted by steinbej View Post
    I bought a $79 factory refurbished AT&T Treo 680. No Centro for me, but hoping Centro for many others keeps Palm afloat.
    -- Josh
    Pixi: Sold. Pre: Passed off to another rep. Touchpad: Just a toy until Cloud syncing arrives, and a better doc editor.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by steinbej View Post
    Apple's market share of the personal computing world has shot up over the past few years. Rising from 4% of the market to 8 or 9% is a huge leap ...
    Whoa whoa whoa...what's with the Apple number inflation?

    Macs are "8 or 9%"? Doubt it.

    Gartner is at 6.1% for Q4 2007 or maybe 6.3% according to IDC.

    And that is just the U.S. which is an exception.

    Worldwide? ~ 3.2%, Apple doesn't even crack the top 5.

    http://i82.photobucket.com/albums/j2...ta77/graph.jpg
    Last edited by Malatesta; 03/12/2008 at 10:54 AM.

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  16.    #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by crogs571 View Post
    where'd you buy that? I'd pick one up just to have for travel purposes.

    AT&T major corporate accounts division, now called I think "Premiere" accounts. It's a $50 discount from the $129 listed at the general AT&T website for refurb 680.
    -- Josh
  17.    #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    Whoa whoa whoa...what's with the Apple number inflation?

    Macs are "8 or 9%"? Doubt it.

    Gartner is at 6.1% for Q4 2007 or maybe 6.3% according to IDC.

    And that is just the U.S. which is an exception.
    Sorry, cited quotes off top of my head which I recalled from CNET or Engadget or the like from a couple months ago. I am very likely in error.
    -- Josh
  18. TimmyB's Avatar
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    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by Malatesta View Post
    Whoa whoa whoa...what's with the Apple number inflation?

    Macs are "8 or 9%"? Doubt it.

    Gartner is at 6.1% for Q4 2007 or maybe 6.3% according to IDC.

    And that is just the U.S. which is an exception.

    Worldwide? ~ 3.2%, Apple doesn't even crack the top 5.
    One thing that we need to keep in mind is market share is rarely related to quality. If it were, that would mean that Chevrolets are far better than Mercedes Benzes and BMW's. I have yet to see anyone win that argument.

    I'm OK with whatever place Palm comes in as it is my PIM of choice (by far) over any other device, and now it has my phone built into it for a price I can afford and a size I can slip into my pocket. As long as they do well enough to stay in business, that is!
    tim
  19. #19  
    ^^ Same here. I could give 2 craps how good Palm is or isn't doing as far as marketshare or how other competitors are doing in comparison. I pick the phone who's features/software/OS/design/stability I like the best.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by steinbej View Post
    Sorry, cited quotes off top of my head which I recalled from CNET or Engadget or the like from a couple months ago. I am very likely in error.
    -- Josh
    np

    It was actually fun to look up those numbers anyways as I was curious myself

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