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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by robodude View Post
    Okay, I saw the Flash. I can see a market for this type of device, but will that market be large enough to sustain success? I think the drawback of the Foleo is it's limited memory, inability to play video and it's dependence on a separate device. It seems to me that a notebook or laptop is worth paying more for to have these features, but perhaps there are some who will be happy with the Foleo.

    Time will surely tell...
    Limited memory: As solid state flash memory prices come down while capacity grows, and as wireless connections get faster and cheaper and allow your device instant access to practically unlimited storage, the "limited" memory in Foleo v.1.0 will grow exponentially.

    Inability to play video: This could easily be addressed and it sounds like they're already working on it.

    Dependence on a separate device: It has it's own local storage and wireless LAN connection and uses the "broadband modem in your pocket" for WAN connectivity. In the future most people will have a phone/smartphone as their primary mobile communications device. Won't you be carrying that device with you practically everywhere you go?
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    #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by ballistic View Post
    Inability to play video: This could easily be addressed and it sounds like they're already working on it.
    It needs a new processor, which won't help anyone that buys this Foleo, and incidentally, may push up the already high cost. Meanwhile, other solutions get cheaper.
    PalmPilot Professional...Palm Vx...Treo 600...Treo 680...HTC Touch HD...iPhone 4S...
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by tirk View Post
    It needs a new processor, which won't help anyone that buys this Foleo, and incidentally, may push up the already high cost. Meanwhile, other solutions get cheaper.
    They're marketing Foleo 1.0 now as primarily a mobile email companion for your smartphone. By the time Foleo 2.0 comes along and they want to add more robust multimedia/video playback with improved hardware, the cost/performance ratio of the chipset should be right on target.
  4. #24  
    Exactly. The rest of the market is not standing still. There are already UMPC's and larger laptops with solid state drives and WWAN built-in. Anything which makes the Foleo better applies equally to a small laptop (which is what a Foleo is in the end).

    Surur
  5. #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Exactly. The rest of the market is not standing still. There are already UMPC's and larger laptops with solid state drives and WWAN built-in. Anything which makes the Foleo better applies equally to a small laptop (which is what a Foleo is in the end).

    Surur
    OK, but you're completely ignoring the fact that those run a full-fledged Windows desktop OS. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Vista has significant resource requirements (processor, graphics to run full Aero Glass, memory to run fast, and the associated high power consumption and wattage/heat that result). As all of those UMPC users how great a complete experience it is to use Vista with no built in keyboard. Also, is it any coincidence that most of those power UMPC users run out right away and get a wireless full sized keyboard? Check out most of the photos from JKOntheRun. Most of the photos of a UMPC setup in a coffee shop, car, or on a desk prominently display a wireless keyboard. Most of those power UMPC users also need a larger high capacity battery to get the battery life of the Foleo.

    Important mobility requirements: Low cost, small size/weight, low power consumption, and instant to the most common tasks most people do while mobile. Cramming a full fledged desktop OS and general purpose desktop PC into a mobile form factor is trying to tackle to the problem from the opposite direction Palm is taking.

    Brian
    Last edited by ballistic; 06/02/2007 at 08:28 AM.
  6. #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So basically Jeff always thought he could do a better Windows. The Foleo will run smack into the 80:20 problem. It will solve 80% of peoples problems, but will leave a varied 20% that is different for each person which it just wont be able to cover with its limited feature set, both in hardware and software.

    He is basically launching a new platform with pretty limited resources, joining Pepper pad etc. I dont rate his chances.

    Surur
    It'll be able to satisfy 100% of some people's needs.
  7. #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Actually the analogy that occurs to me is a motorcycle and a side car.

    Palm sells motorcycles. With much fan fare they announce a revolutionary new product that will remake transport forever. It turns out to be a huge side-car. Still a bit smaller than a normal car, and a bit cheaper, but it will solve the problem of brining home groceries from the supermarket. They expect the market will lap it up, and not only will most existing bike users buy one, they expect people will give up their cars to buy a bike and side-car (which incidentally costs more than a car put together).

    Yes, I can really see this business model working...



    Surur
    lmao... hilarious
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So basically Jeff always thought he could do a better Windows. The Foleo will run smack into the 80:20 problem. It will solve 80% of peoples problems, but will leave a varied 20% that is different for each person which it just wont be able to cover with its limited feature set, both in hardware and software.
    Palm has always designed their products and their OS to embrace the 80/20 rule:

    You can forestall feature overload by applying the 80/20 rule: Focus on what users do 80 percent of the time and try to ignore the other 20 percent. Accommodate what most people need to do, but don't add complexity just to address fringe cases. Keep in mind that you and most of your coworkers are not "most people." You use technology intensively, so you probably shouldn't apply the 80/20 rule to your own activities. Apply the rule to what typical users do.

    You'll find that this approach will sometimes lead to solutions that are unusual or unorthodox. For example, using the Address Book button to beam a business card is architecturally odd. Palm OS software designers, however, applied the 80/20 rule and decided that one of the most important uses of infrared (IR) would be to send business cards. Then they came up with a way to make it happen just by pressing the Address Book button for two seconds.

    Another example of the 80/20 rule: Pressing the Date Book button takes you to the current date. Why? Because 80 percent of the time, users want to see what they have scheduled for today. Additionally, the standard Date Book application has repeating events but doesn't cover every possible case of repetition. Thus, it accommodates what most people want to do but refuses to add complexity merely to include fringe cases. For example, to schedule an appointment for the second and fourth Thursday of every month, you must enter it twice in the Date Book (one repeating on the second Thursday and the other repeating on the fourth Thursday).
    Focus on what users do 80 percent of the time

    Your challenge is to take a hard look at the problems you are solving. Ask yourself what it is that people want to do with your application and how often. What do they want to do occasionally? What do they want to do every week? Every day? Several times a day? Employ the 80/20 rule.
    Your point?
  9. #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by ballistic View Post
    OK, but you're completely ignoring the fact that those run a full-fledged Windows desktop OS. Correct me if I'm wrong, but Vista has significant resource requirements (processor, graphics to run full Aero Glass, memory to run fast, and the associated high power consumption and wattage/heat that result). As all of those UMPC users how great a complete experience it is to use Vista with no built in keyboard. Also, is it any coincidence that most of those power UMPC users run out right away and get a wireless full sized keyboard? Check out most of the photos from JKOntheRun. Most of the photos of a UMPC setup in a coffee shop or on a desk prominently display a wireless keyboard. Most of those power UMPC users also need an extra high capacity battery to get the usage of the Foleo.

    Important mobility requirements: Low cost, small size/weight, low power consumption, and instant to the most common tasks most people do while mobile. Cramming a full fledged desktop OS and general purpose desktop PC into a mobile form factor is trying to tackle to the problem from the opposite direction Palm is taking.

    Brian
    The UMPC and Foleo are both tending towards the same area, and the UMPC will win due to greater resources. More and more UMPC's come with keyboards (just like most tablet PC's these days), they already weigh less than the Foleo, and have comparable battery life. As mentioned many times before, the only issue has been that these devices have commanded a high margin, mainly due to low demand. IF there was a significant low end demand the OEM's would address this market pretty quickly. Again, remember that this device does not have any magic sauce. Its just a Linux laptop with an ARM processor.


    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    It'll be able to satisfy 100% of some people's needs.
    Thats a pretty small market, and I hope they never buy a CD they want to rip.

    Surur
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by ballistic View Post
    Palm has always designed their products and their OS to embrace the 80/20 rule:

    You can forestall feature overload by applying the 80/20 rule: Focus on what users do 80 percent of the time and try to ignore the other 20 percent. Accommodate what most people need to do, but don't add complexity just to address fringe cases. Keep in mind that you and most of your coworkers are not "most people." You use technology intensively, so you probably shouldn't apply the 80/20 rule to your own activities. Apply the rule to what typical users do.

    You'll find that this approach will sometimes lead to solutions that are unusual or unorthodox. For example, using the Address Book button to beam a business card is architecturally odd. Palm OS software designers, however, applied the 80/20 rule and decided that one of the most important uses of infrared (IR) would be to send business cards. Then they came up with a way to make it happen just by pressing the Address Book button for two seconds.

    Another example of the 80/20 rule: Pressing the Date Book button takes you to the current date. Why? Because 80 percent of the time, users want to see what they have scheduled for today. Additionally, the standard Date Book application has repeating events but doesn't cover every possible case of repetition. Thus, it accommodates what most people want to do but refuses to add complexity merely to include fringe cases. For example, to schedule an appointment for the second and fourth Thursday of every month, you must enter it twice in the Date Book (one repeating on the second Thursday and the other repeating on the fourth Thursday).
    Focus on what users do 80 percent of the time

    Your challenge is to take a hard look at the problems you are solving. Ask yourself what it is that people want to do with your application and how often. What do they want to do occasionally? What do they want to do every week? Every day? Several times a day? Employ the 80/20 rule.

    Your point?
    That this approach has been a disaster for Palm. It resulted in phones without WIFI, a stultified design that has not changed in 4 years, and a loss of market share. People actually want to do things with their devices.

    When quoting a philosophy to live by, make sure it has not proven to be a complete failure already.

    Recent quotes has shown that Palm's success in the market has largely been by accident. Their intentions, and the final product were far apart, and they lucked out. They are still hoping lightening will strike twice.

    Surur
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    The UMPC and Foleo are both tending towards the same area, and the UMPC will win due to greater resources. More and more UMPC's come with keyboards (just like most tablet PC's these days), they already weigh less than the Foleo, and have comparable battery life.
    So you admit that there is or will be a substantial market for the Foleo and UMPCs, but you think UMPCs will "win". Palm doesn't have to "win" to be a successful, profitable company that provides mobile computing products that work for their users. UMPC's with their processing, power, and memory specs are designed to meet the requirements of the OS, not what the user does 80% of the time. It should be the other way around.

    As mentioned many times before, the only issue has been that these devices have commanded a high margin, mainly due to low demand. IF there was a significant low end demand the OEM's would address this market pretty quickly. Again, remember that this device does not have any magic sauce. Its just a Linux laptop with an ARM processor.
    OEMs need to put have an OS installed to sell to the consumer. Most computers come with an OS installed. Microsoft is forcing Vista down OEMs throats. Show me a low cost (under $600 USD), low power (5 hours of battery life using WiFi without a bulky extended battery), instant-on (not in sleep mode that still consumes significant battery life) ultra-portable (2.5 lbs or under) that can run Vista.
    Last edited by ballistic; 06/02/2007 at 08:45 AM.
  12. #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    The UMPC and Foleo are both tending towards the same area, and the UMPC will win due to greater resources.
    Why do you assume that the entire market will choose one or the other?

    IF there was a significant low end demand the OEM's would address this market pretty quickly.
    Or they'll address it slowly. Definitely one or the other.

    Again, remember that this device does not have any magic sauce. Its just a Linux laptop with an ARM processor.
    instant on, solid state, integration with smartphone email, simplified UI, compatibility with Treos, 1 year lead time, possible loyalty of Palm developer community

    Thats a pretty small market, and I hope they never buy a CD they want to rip.
    Ignoring the needs of all those people who have to rip a CD while they're traveling is one of those difficult trade-offs Palm had to make.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Thats a pretty small market, and I hope they never buy a CD they want to rip.

    Surur
    Not a small market. Designing a mobile product for ripping CD's on the go? Come on now, you're really stretching now.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    Ignoring the needs of all those people who have to rip a CD while they're traveling is one of those difficult trade-offs Palm had to make.
    Apparently Hawkins wants this device to become some-ones ONLY computer. The fact is that when you want to be everything to some-one, you better not be a limited, single purpose device.

    Surur
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    That this approach has been a disaster for Palm.
    Forteen consecutive profitable quarters and sitting on a heap of cash is a disaster?
  16. #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by samkim View Post
    Why do you assume that the entire market will choose one or the other?
    Because they tend to do so.

    instant on, solid state, integration with smartphone email, simplified UI, compatibility with Treos, 1 year lead time, possible loyalty of Palm developer community
    Has it occurred to you that a SSD laptop with Activesync does most of this already?

    Surur
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Apparently Hawkins wants this device to become some-ones ONLY computer.
    This Foleo? He definitely doesn't think that.
  18. #38  
    Quote Originally Posted by ballistic View Post
    Forteen consecutive profitable quarters and sitting on a heap of cash is a disaster?
    Profitable at what cost? They have been slowly killing the company, by starving it of R&D and product development.

    Surur
  19. #39  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    So basically Jeff always thought he could do a better Windows. The Foleo will run smack into the 80:20 problem. It will solve 80% of peoples problems, but will leave a varied 20% that is different for each person which it just wont be able to cover with its limited feature set, both in hardware and software.

    He is basically launching a new platform with pretty limited resources, joining Pepper pad etc. I dont rate his chances.

    Surur
    Yes, time will tell the result. Personally, I am somewhat confident that Foleo will have a bright future. Besides its features such as zero boot time, light weight, zero noise, solid disk...One more important factor I think is its openess to open source community by adopting Linux, in which nothing is impossible.
    Palm M100->Sony T615->Palm TT->Treo 180->Treo 650
  20. #40  
    Quote Originally Posted by surur View Post
    Because they tend to do so.
    Um, no. Diversity is only increasing. It's like evolution; dogs and cats can co-exist.


    Has it occurred to you that a SSD laptop with Activesync does most of this already?
    No.
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