02/27/2011, 09:57 AM
It is past time this particular argument dies the bad death it deserves. Anybody play chess? Are you familiar with material advantage? Amateurs count material differently from experts. To an amateur, material is the value of the material on the entire board. To an expert, the only material that matters are the pieces in the battle at the time. They don't care of the opponent has an extra bishop if that bishop is blocked behind a locked pawn structure. If they are waging a king-side attack, the only pieces that matter are the ones that can attack and defend the king-side, period.
Originally Posted by chalx
That's your chess lesson for the day. Now here's the application. You see the market as 6B strong. It's not. It's not even close. How many of the 6B people can afford a smartphone, let alone a pad? How many of them have easy access to the technology? How many of them even want one? Once you figure that out, you quickly realize that the other 5.9B people don't matter right now. What matters is the market that has access, money, and desire. We can definitely make judgements about how that market is sliced.
True, that market is growing, but it will never be 6B. There is a significant fraction of that number that doesn't even have access to electricity and running water. No, HP does not have a market of 6B people to carve out a niche. Arguably, all of the people who fit the criteria, are already taken. They are the people who can get one, and who actually want one.
There are some who are holding out to see how things shape up, but that is a tiny number compared to the total population of the earth. In other words, HP has to compete in a large but limited, fierce battle of mindshare. The ones who win that battle now, are the ones in the best position to grow with the market.