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  1.    #1  
    Man, I had no idea of the challenges of Palm OS in the market place until I was reading the Feb issue of PocketPC Magazine today on the page with the review of PPC-6601....a basic but good review btw. I thought that Palm was doing a lot better.

    Here is what it said:

    According to the most recent report from Gatner Research, manufacturers of Windows Mobile handelds shipped 1.4 million devices in Q3 2004, up 33% from the previous quarter. During the same time period, shipments of the PalmOS devices shrank by 26% to 851,000. On top of this, PalmOne is rumored to be working on a Windows Mobile version of its Treo PDA phone.
    Was this a one off situation due to something I am not aware of, or is this happening steadily over several quarters? My fear is that often times after a product starts a negative marketing trend, it is often too late to address the issue and turn it around. There are some notable examples to buck that general philosophy....Apple comes to mind.
  2. #2  
    Quote Originally Posted by HobbesIsReal
    Was this a one off situation due to something I am not aware of, or is this happening steadily over several quarters? My fear is that often times after a product starts a negative marketing trend, it is often too late to address the issue and turn it around. There are some notable examples to buck that general philosophy....Apple comes to mind.
    PPC surpases Palm for the first time last quarter. The trend has been consistent. PPC up, Palm flat. 05 will be the year PPC outsell Palm consistently quarter to quarter.
  3. #3  
    Interesting! I wonder if SprintPCS will continue to charge extra for Vision service data service for the PPC if it beats the Palm. Time will tell.
  4.    #4  
    Sprint earns more, percentage wise, with Data than any other cell company out there. The big reason is inexpensive data add-ons....not seperate packages that have to be pieced together as it is with all other carriers....which is a HUGE reason why a lot of Sprint customers are so happy with them, me included.

    Just personally speaking, I would think it would be a better decision for Sprint to continue their current success with making more money by volume instead of higher prices for data plan.
  5. #5  
    Hobbes, I'm not sure that your statement about Sprint being the only company to do this is correct. I have recently become a Cingular customer (former AT&T) and they have MediaWorks for $19.99 and it is unlimited internet, 200 MMS, 1500 SMS (with overage rate of 0.03/SMS and 0.20/MMS).

    Is that much different than the Vision plan, other than $5.00 diffence in cost?
  6. #6  
    I for one miss the costs of SPCS data services, but I can live with the $49.95/month for unlimited data on VZW. I do miss being able to access files on my desktop with SPCS BC like I could on the T600. Then again, with an SD card and 128K of RAM onboard, I can carry the important files with me. VZW EVDO is a huge asset in those areas where its available. Once SPCS rolls their EVDO service out, it will be a different story and hopefully, VZW will begin to cut us a break on data plan costs due to the competition.

    The other thing I miss about SPCS is their dedicated SMTP server. VZW has none and you must have access to an SMTP server to send emails out if not using Wireless Sync. Virtually none of the ISP's now allow relaying thru their SMTP Servers (including COX) and direct access to an outbound server is a must I believe. Hopefully VZW will wake up and smell the coffee.

    Bob Dukworth
  7. #7  
    speaking of OS comparison, if this thing happens in PPC, people will drop the model instantly and it's all over for the OEM. No mercy.

    But strangely, treo users, who constantly say how unreliable PPC is, seem to become the biggest apologist if screw up like this happens.

    http://discussion.treocentral.com/sh...ad.php?t=69352
  8.    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by John_JHF1
    Hobbes, I'm not sure that your statement about Sprint being the only company to do this is correct. I have recently become a Cingular customer (former AT&T) and they have MediaWorks for $19.99 and it is unlimited internet, 200 MMS, 1500 SMS (with overage rate of 0.03/SMS and 0.20/MMS).

    Is that much different than the Vision plan, other than $5.00 diffence in cost?
    No I think you misunderstood.....or probably more true to the point I did not explain myself very well.......

    I just read a report/article giving the details of the big Cell companies. Sprint has the highest percentage of revenue with money coming in with data services per subscriber. Not necesarily the highest amount in dollar amount. Here is what it said:

    So it might come as a surprise that no carrier is getting a bigger percentage of its revenue per subscriber from mobile data services than Sprint. In fact, according to research from the Yankee Group, it gets almost twice as much money from data, as a percentage of total revenue, than most other carriers.

    How does Sprint do it? The company packages many of its services as PCS Vision and pitches it as a way to get rich content on your phone, as opposed to the piecemeal approach that other carriers take. It is easier to use and understand, and it's led directly to more money for the carrier.
    There are still a lot of grandfathered customers who are still only paying $10 a month for unlimited data Vision plan. I had to give mine up to get the discount for my last upgrade...bummer.
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 01/15/2005 at 05:41 PM.
  9. #9  
    Okay, I understand what you mean. That makes sense now
  10.    #10  
    Anyone know how Palm vs PPC trend is going this quarter?
  11. jglev's Avatar
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    #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by John_JHF1
    Hobbes, I'm not sure that your statement about Sprint being the only company to do this is correct. I have recently become a Cingular customer (former AT&T) and they have MediaWorks for $19.99 and it is unlimited internet, 200 MMS, 1500 SMS (with overage rate of 0.03/SMS and 0.20/MMS).

    Is that much different than the Vision plan, other than $5.00 diffence in cost?
    Not to get to off topic, but MediaWorks Unlimited was discontinued by Cingular a couple of months ago. People who had it are grandfathered (as long as they don't try to change their voice plan). Now the MediaWorks plan has only 3 MB for the same price (with unlimited MMS and 1000 SMS). You can get unlimited MediaNet for 24.99 but that is only data (1000 SMS are 9.99 and 40 MMS are 4.99- all extra). Additionally, they don't like to give the 24.99 unlimited data plan to PDA phones (they want you to take the 39.99 unlimited Data Connect Plan for PDAs) and I believe both sending and receiving SMS count towards your total. So any way you slice it, Sprint is still less expensive.
    Jeff
  12.    #12  
    Here is possibly not a very good answer for Palm to my question....which some apparent confirmation about PalmOne testing Win Mobile OS...

    Is Linux Palm's savior?
    By Richard Shim, and Dawn Kawamoto, CNET News.com
    Published on ZDNet News: May 25, 2005, 4:00 AM PT

    The deliberately simple nature of the Palm operating system was so inspiring to Rick Broida that in 1997 he started a magazine, Tap, dedicated to devices using the handheld operating system.

    Long a fan of the handhelds and operating system, the Commerce Township, Mich., freelance writer has watched both decline over the years following inventory problems and a cooling of the once-hot handheld market. Hardware maker PalmOne remains the market leader, but the OS company, PalmSource, is, as one analyst put it, "a company in transition with a risky strategy."

    Broida is more plainspoken.

    "They were the leader, now they're the follower," he said. "There's no question Windows Mobile has passed it by in certain areas and the Palm OS has not kept up. It just seems like they're sitting on their hands."

    After ambitious plans to embed the operating system in new classes of devices such as smart phones and advanced phones--which were expected to far surpass the handheld industry in terms of shipments and growth--PalmSource is struggling against similar suppliers, a shrinking market and fewer manufacturers interested in its operating systems than expected.

    This is not what executives had in mind when they first broke off from handheld maker PalmOne in 2003. When PalmOne and PalmSource were part of Palm, licensees were concerned that the OS company would favor the hardware company when it came to making new software features available. The split was expected to allow PalmSource to seek more licensees without having them worry about competing directly with PalmOne.

    But instead, the number of PalmSource licensees shrank. Sony left the handheld market, and PalmOne acquired Handspring, which was No. 2 in market share.

    Wrestling with Redmond
    The tough times have continued for PalmSource. Its chief executive, David Nagel, abruptly resigned Sunday without giving a reason, and for the first time devices shipped using Microsoft's handheld operating system surpassed the Palm OS for the year in 2004, according to research firm IDC.

    Microsoft is also expected to increase its lead in the handheld market--this year 49 percent of handhelds shipped worldwide will use Windows Mobile, and by 2009 that number is expected to jump to 56 percent. PalmSource's share will shrink from 44 percent in 2005 to 38 percent by 2009.

    More troubling is the fact that traditional handhelds are still the major source of PalmSource's revenues. That's not the way it was supposed to be.

    The company has developed Cobalt, a new OS for smart phones, but customers have yet to release a device using it.

    "Cobalt was supposed to bring them significant growth through new licensees and new form factors," said Kevin Burden, a research analyst with IDC. "Oh my god, yeah, it's been slow in coming--that's a nice way of putting it."

    But PalmSource says devices using Cobalt are on the way.

    Interim PalmSource CEO Patrick McVeigh said the "pipeline" for Cobalt is building nicely and declined to further elaborate. He did note, however, that it typically takes smart phone makers roughly 18 months to develop new products.

    One developer with an Italian company that makes software for PDAs and smart phones attributed PalmSource's licensing woes with Cobalt to the timing of the company's product announcements.

    Shortly after PalmSource was spun out, the company announced its new operating system, Cobalt 6.0. In announcing the new OS, the company also highlighted its product road map, which included a feature-laden version, Cobalt 6.1.

    "Showing the road map was an error, because the licensees wanted to wait for 6.1," the Italian developer said. "The first version had no phone features, no VGA and no Bluetooth. It only had the user interface, so it was too expensive for the licensees to develop."

    So as a number of licensees patiently sat on the sidelines waiting for Cobalt 6.1, which debuted late last year, PalmSource repeated the snafu, the developer said.

    After Cobalt 6.1 came out, PalmSource soon announced it had acquired China MobileSoft and, as a result, would offer Linux.

    "When they announced they would offer the Palm OS on Linux, licensees wanted to wait for that, so the same thing is happening," the developer added.

    Hong Kong-based device maker Group Sense PDA said it would ship a smart phone based on Cobalt in the United States by the fourth quarter. But will it be tempting enough for carriers, who, as Burden said, "hold all the purse strings"?

    Device makers and cellular carriers will likely want to go with a more tried-and-true OS for new cell phones, such as those from Microsoft, Symbian and Research In Motion, Burden said.

    Sibling squabbles ahead?
    A major source of concern for the company is its relationship with its No. 1 licensee and former sister company PalmOne. The handheld maker renewed its operating system license from PalmSource through 2009 for a minimum royalty of $148.5 million.

    The deal ensures steady revenue. However, sources have said PalmOne has evaluated both Microsoft-based operating systems and at least one version of Linux as a potential alternative operating system to the Palm OS for its handheld devices.

    Sources familiar with the tests said PalmOne has been quietly exploring operating systems to augment the Palm OS for some time. The company has also been exploring partnerships that could let it use a tailored version of the Linux operating system to run on its devices.

    PalmSource has a Linux solution in the works. Cobalt will also be ported over to the new PalmSource Linux operating system once it has been developed, McVeigh said.

    PalmSource's China MobileSoft acquisition was designed to expand the company's global presence and put Linux applications squarely in its product plans.

    While the Palm OS will run as a software layer on top of Linux, and PalmSource plans to contribute to the Linux community, the company won't release the Palm OS code to the public.

    PalmSource could have a Linux-based operating system available in 18 months, said Pablo A. Perez-Fernandez, an equity research analyst with Stanford Financial Group.

    "It would cost less to develop and give them more opportunities especially in China," Perez-Fernandez said. "However, it's a risky strategy since they don't have any licensees yet...they wouldn't see a big increase in revenues for four to six quarters."

    The Linux-based operating system would allow PalmSource to tap the potentially large feature phone market, which encompasses phones that aren't advanced smart phones like the Treo 650 but that include digital cameras and other capabilities beyond sending and receiving calls.

    The operating system would allow carriers to incorporate a standard operating system into feature phones, which make up a majority of the phone market. By 2008, worldwide shipments of feature phones will reach 575 million units, far bigger than the smart phone market, Perez-Fernandez said.

    The risk? Plenty of development remains to be done on the Linux operating system.

    "There's a lot of interest," Perez-Fernandez said, adding "but that's very different from commitment."
  13. #13  
    According to the most recent report from Gatner Research, manufacturers of Windows Mobile handelds shipped 1.4 million devices in Q3 2004, up 33% from the previous quarter. During the same time period, shipments of the PalmOS devices shrank by 26% to 851,000. On top of this, PalmOne is rumored to be working on a Windows Mobile version of its Treo PDA phone.
    The one thing this quote doesn't point out is that the statistics don't include smart phones, just plain PDAs (this was discussed months ago). I think the Treo far outsells any PPC based smart phones.
    Bob Meyer
    I'm out of my mind. But feel free to leave a message.
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by meyerweb
    The one thing this quote doesn't point out is that the statistics don't include smart phones, just plain PDAs (this was discussed months ago). I think the Treo far outsells any PPC based smart phones.
    Meyerweb is correct. For a more complete picture of the market see the Canalsys numbers.



    Palm is ahead of HP, although if you combine both Fujitsu and HP then Palm is slightly behind.

    The scary part is the fact that all the other vendors are growing faster, especially Nokia and RIM.
  15. #15  
    RIM's advantage is its several different models, including its low-cost Blackberry (I say low-cost loosely, but it is low-cost when compared to the high-end Blackberry).

    Palm...where's yours?

    I'm surprised Motorola and Sony Ericsson have been beat out by HP. Fujitsu...where did they come from?
  16. #16  
    What handset(s) did Nokia come out with to account for that huge jump in market share between Q1'04 and Q1'05? Is it something not available in the US and what OS does it run?
  17. #17  
    The Canalys data only includes smartphones so in terms of Nokia its only Symbian based phones (not that entire phone lineup). That's also why you don't see Motorola and Sony Ericsson in the list since they have a limited smartphone portfolio.

    In Q1 '04 Nokia only had the 7650, 3650 whereas in Q1 '05 they had a number of mass market models - 6600, 6620, 6670, 6630, 3660, 7610, N-Gage,etc. These new models sold by lots of carriers so the volume is higher.
  18. webdave's Avatar
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    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by TonyH
    Interesting! I wonder if SprintPCS will continue to charge extra for Vision service data service for the PPC if it beats the Palm. Time will tell.

    I just switched from a Treo 650 to a PPC-6600. My data price stayed the same ($10.00/month).
  19.    #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by meyerweb
    The one thing this quote doesn't point out is that the statistics don't include smart phones, just plain PDAs (this was discussed months ago). I think the Treo far outsells any PPC based smart phones.
    One point is that there is direct competition between High End PDA convergence devices vs smartphones. I know of several people who wanted the either the Treo 650 or the PPC-6600, but after weighing the cost vs their needs they opted to go with a higher end smartphone and save $300-400. The revenues of the smartphone still goes to MS who obviously also offers the WM2003 OS for the PPC-6600, or Symbian, etc...but not to Palm. Either way, the smartphone market has certainly taken customers away from Palm and added extra revenue for MS and other manufacturers.

    I think Palm is really missing the boat by virtually ignoring this HUGE demographic....those who need more than cell phone.....cannot afford or won't pay for full PDA phone....that still need PIM, Games, Internet Browsing, etc.... How many none Palm devices are out there in this category? How many Palm based devices are there to choose from?

    Also with the release of the WM2005 in a 2-3 months, it brings all of MS Mobile OS together under one roof (kind of like bring Win98 & NT under one roof with WinXP). This has already attracted a lot of attention from manufacturers and developers because now they just have to write, design, and support for one OS...only adding to the growing momentum behind MS modile.

    Now if Palm can get there development and marketing together in an effective way, having a viable (and hopefully cheaper) alternative with Colbalt to the new tools and power offered by WM2005 will prove to be very successful.
    Last edited by HobbesIsReal; 05/27/2005 at 05:05 PM.
  20. #20  
    Don't give a damn about market trend. When exactly will PPC comes out with a version that has same size of Treo and have touch screen and keyboard? The Treo has come out for two years. Should I keep waiting for the "eventually market leader" or just enjoy my Treo?

    No? So I don't care.

    The only thing I want from the PPC camp that's not avaiable on the Palm is voip phone. But that's just a novelty. No I don't need wi-fi. My roommate and my work has wi-fi but I have wired up my house way before Cisco made its first consumer wi-fi PC card.
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