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  1.    #1  
    The Doomsday Scenario:

    Sony Ericsson buys Palm in the next couple of months, ports PalmOS to an upgraded version of the P900 sporting fold-out Treo 600-style keyboard, Treo navigation button, Bluetooth, rudimentary video phone, improved camera, Opera-style browser, SnapperMail, office suite. Touts advantage of PalmOS' "20,000 applications" over Symbian's fledgling library of apps.

    Positions phone as the ultimate connected accessory for business, then rolls out decontented/"stripped" versions of flagship device to compete with Nokia (Symbian) smartphones.

    Questions:

    1) Would such a lineup from Sony Ericsson kill Nokia and Microsoft smartphones within two years?

    2) Would anyone here buy a Treo instead of the equivalent Sony Ericsson if the companies were in competition? (e.g. if Sony Ericsson simply licensed PalmOS Smartphone Edition from Palm.)

    3) Has anyone seen this Nokiacidal Sony Ericsson?

    4) Will Sony Ericsson have their PalmOS smartphones out by summer, 2004?





    You can't handle the truth™...
  2. #2  
    1) Would such a lineup from Sony Ericsson kill Nokia and Microsoft smartphones within two years?

    ( I believe that eventually, microsoft will win. Even though I am a palm user, eventually microsoft will make their software the best or the best to work with. Its just a matter of time. Until then, I stay with palmOS)

    2) Would anyone here buy a Treo instead of the equivalent Sony Ericsson if the companies were in competition? (e.g. if Sony Ericsson simply licensed PalmOS Smartphone Edition from Palm.)

    (I would buy another companies product WITH NO QUESTION if there was real competition. I would drop handspring like a bad habbit)

    3) Has anyone seen this Nokiacidal Sony Ericsson?

    (no sorry)

    4) Will Sony Ericsson have their PalmOS smartphones out by summer, 2004?

    (I believe they will)
  3.    #3  
    Originally posted by farzonalmaneih
    1) Would such a lineup from Sony Ericsson kill Nokia and Microsoft smartphones within two years?

    ( I believe that eventually, microsoft will win... Its just a matter of time.)

    2) Would anyone here buy a Treo instead of the equivalent Sony Ericsson if the companies were in competition? (e.g. if Sony Ericsson simply licensed PalmOS Smartphone Edition from Palm.)

    (I would buy another companies product WITH NO QUESTION if there was real competition. I would drop handspring like a bad habbit)

    4) Will Sony Ericsson have their PalmOS smartphones out by summer, 2004?

    (I believe they will)
    I don't think Microsoft will win this particular battle. Sony has the size, experience, manufacturing ability and focus to compete. This is like a chess match and the moves Sony made years ago are now starting to make a lot of sense. These phones are going to help Sony entrench Memory Stick as a storage media format and will trigger sales of their related hardware. Want to watch yesterday's rerun of Seinfeld or the Simpsons on your cell phone? Just buy a $300 Memory Stick recorder and a $200 Memory Stick. And since you already have a few extra Memory Sticks lying around (for MP3s) , if you later decide to get a separate digital camera, you'll probably be a lot more inclined to go with a Sony. And once you've bought a few of their products you may become a regular customer. Suddenly that Sony smartphone has managed to generate another $1000 or more in sales for the company. Smartphones are a brilliant way for Sony to get their foot in the door (or their hand in your pocket).

    I'd be shocked if Palm simply licences the PalmOS Smartphone Edition to Sony. Palm already made the mistake of licencing PalmOS to companies that then turned around and made better hardware than Palm, cannibalizing Palm's lucrative sales. No semi-intelligent CEO would allow that to happen again. The OS is the only thing of value Palm has left and I believe they'll use Sony's need of the OS to negotiate a sale of Palm very soon.

    Expect the Sony Ericsson PalmOS smartphones by Summer, 2004. you heard it "officially" here first.




    The truth is out of style™
  4. #4  
    Originally posted by The Ugly Truth
    Questions:

    1) Would such a lineup from Sony Ericsson kill Nokia and Microsoft smartphones within two years?

    2) Would anyone here buy a Treo instead of the equivalent Sony Ericsson if the companies were in competition? (e.g. if Sony Ericsson simply licensed PalmOS Smartphone Edition from Palm.)

    3) Has anyone seen this Nokiacidal Sony Ericsson?

    4) Will Sony Ericsson have their PalmOS smartphones out by summer, 2004?
    1) The current line of Symbian smartphones already leaves both PalmOS and M$ smartphones biting the dust. Nokia is still the biggest, but SE is doing very well with their Symbian-UIQ phone P800 (more than one million sold). My prediction is that Symbain will still be the biggest by far, two years from now.

    2) What's a Treo?

    3) ?

    4) Not a chance! SE is a major shareholder in Symbian, and seing how their first Symbian smartphone was such a huge success, I see absolutely no reason why they should abandon Symbian. And personally, I hope they never will!
  5. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #5  
    making a phone is not just about sticking an OS to a hardware, but also making sure the phone can talk to the network.

    Nokia/Symbian et all controls the network. They make network gear, and they dictate what standard/new service can go into the network.

    It doesnt' matter how cool Palm OS is, if it can't talk to the next generation wireless network, it will still be just a PDA glued on top of a lousy phone.

    Palm needs a major player in their side. One of the top 5 players is peferable. SE was a good condidate, but Nagel fsck it pretty good with that loose talk.

    Microsoft realizes this, that's why they quit mucking up the wireless world order by doing the far east OEM gambit too far and start playing nice with TI and motorola. Just look at their projects together.

    Palm doesn't control any piece of important technology to make smartphone successfull. They don't control desktop/enterprice computing market where smartphone can be made as data gateway, nor do they control the traditional wireless infrastructure to dictate what service a smartphone the public can have next. This is what SE handset is about btw.

    All Palm can do is keep doing organizer glued on top of a phone trick. It'll get old soon enough, just like the idea of Zen and connected organizer almost kill them two years ago. treo600 is just riding on Palm OS momentum, so far Palm doesn't offers a clear vision what smartphone ought to be. They just stumbling along.

    (no thumboard on a stick is not a vision)
  6. #6  
    Another likely scenario could be that Sony releases a Sony only, Clie smartphone running the Palm OS. Sony doesn't need Ericsson, but Ericsson sure as hell needed Sony. Sony will probably drop the Ericsson name when they feel that is has served their purpose.

    And as for MS vs Sony, Sony has killed MS in the gaming console, and MS is losing money on the XBox while Sony is making money on the PS2. Sony is even expanding the PS2 to the new PSX which will be a PS2/PVR/DVD Recorder for full media capabilities and it will likely include broadband/web surfing capabilities. MS just has XP Media center which is a joke. I think Sony is in a much better position for the home entertainment market and consumer electronics market. MS is working from the PC back to the home entertainment space, Sony is going the other way, and has a much better public persona than MS.
  7. #7  
    Whenever these type discusion start on this board I am always rivited to them. The only problem? I always feel like such a backwoods rube. Are we discussing the world? Or America? Because quite frankly I'm in the cellphone biz and I've never seen a Symbian device. Sony/Ericcson is a joke here. They made crappy phones as Ericsson and they still do. Everytime I see one I want to laugh at the person who has it. No imagination to those phones whatsoever. And the form factor! I swear they've been making the same phone for three years and just renaming it. As for MS I still don't see them with a truly succesful phone here. Granted I really couldn't tell you what they have on the GSM side but in the states the largest carrier is still CDMA and there no MS handsets that have much succes there. The Toshiba? Please. The G1000? I haven't seen one outside the store yet. Of course this could be because it's to heavy for anyone in there right mind to carry. The i700? I actually watched a Verizon tech throw one against the wall because he couldn't get it to work and it was the 8th one he'd looked at that week. So Sony/Ericsson or MS taking out Palm? Maybe but right now I don't think one's had any more success than the other, really.
  8. #8  
    Originally posted by The Ugly Truth
    ...snip...I'd be shocked if Palm simply licences the PalmOS Smartphone Edition to Sony. Palm already made the mistake of licencing PalmOS to companies that then turned around and made better hardware than Palm, cannibalizing Palm's lucrative sales. No semi-intelligent CEO would allow that to happen again. The OS is the only thing of value Palm has left and I believe they'll use Sony's need of the OS to negotiate a sale of Palm very soon.
    Unless I've completely misunderstood you, what you're saying doesn't make much sense now since PalmOne has absolutely nothing to do with the Palm operating system. PalmSource owns the operating system and is a completely independent company. PalmSource's survival depends on licensing the OS to as many different companies as will take it (including Sony).

    Whether Sony attempts to buy PalmOne or not will not make any difference to PalmSource. PalmSource needs to concentrate on making the Palm OS better so that more people will write for it thus making the platform more tempting to hardware manufacturers.

    I disagree with your conclusion that the Palm OS is the only thing of value that "Palm" has left. I think the design specs and carrier relationships that Handspring brings into PalmOne are of tremendous value. "Palm" was never able to really capitalize on the Tungsten's phone capabilities because they messed up the integration, user experience, design, and carrier relationships that would have made the device a Treo-killer.

    On the other hand, Handspring was never able to capitalize on the innovations in the Treo because of lack of capital, making it hard to properly market and distribute the device. Now that PalmOne owns the Treo, they can take the knowledge and experience of Handspring and capitalize on that.

    Just as with PalmOne, Sony has a lot of learning to do when it comes to integrating a phone and a PDA. Sony may know how to make phones (ala Sony Ericsson division) and they may know how to make PDAs (ala Sony Clie division), but the two divisions have not worked together to come up with a real challenge to the Treo's best features (its integration of form and function). Until that happens, the Treo is still the best solution for a lot of people that want to carry ONE device, in my opinion.
    --Inspector Gadget

    "Go Go Gadget Pre!!"
    Palm Pre on Sprint

    Palm V--> Palm IIIc--> Visor Prism--> Visor Phone--> Treo 270--> Treo 600--> Treo 650-->
    Treo 700wx--> HTC Touch Diamond--> Palm Pre & HTC EVO 4G.
  9. purpleX
    purpleX's Avatar
    #9  
    Originally posted by DrDoom
    Whenever these type discusion start on this board I am always rivited to them. The only problem? I always feel like such a backwoods rube. Are we discussing the world? Or America? Because quite frankly I'm in the cellphone biz and I've never seen a Symbian device. Sony/Ericcson is a joke here. They made crappy phones as Ericsson and they still do. Everytime I see one I want to laugh at the person who has it. No imagination to those phones whatsoever. And the form factor! I swear they've been making the same phone for three years and just renaming it.
    Well the deep south is not exactly the mecca of high tech gadge is it? But check out Z600 from SE, they are hot little thing, and it run symbian (not UIQ tho')
  10. #10  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    All Palm can do is keep doing organizer glued on top of a phone trick. It'll get old soon enough, just like the idea of Zen and connected organizer almost kill them two years ago. treo600 is just riding on Palm OS momentum, so far Palm doesn't offers a clear vision what smartphone ought to be. They just stumbling along.
    Well all of the reviews I have seen have said that the Treo 600 is the best smartphone by far to date. And I am sure that these praises have been earned, not bought, as you would like to think (You yourself love to state how they don't have the deep pockets that MS has so I doubt they can buy that many good reviews). So apparently everyone else is worse off as far as Phone/PDA functionallity than P1 is. HS has had to do very little to hype the Treo 600 since it is a very good product and all the tech reviews have been great. Apparently a lot of people who use and review smartphones do not share your minority opinion on the Treo 600's functionallity.

    And as for major players, MS has Motorola making one smartphone that is just now being released, Samsung making one PPC phone with poor sales, and a bunch of nobodies so they aren't really ahead of Palm yet.

    MS is already starting to lose business in the business PC and server market because of all the security and virus problems over the last few months. They admitted this in their last earnings call. As soon as the "Active Directory" joke runs it course (Wow its just Windows with real DNS instead of WINS and some directory features competitors have had for years) and everyone gets burnt by AD (I work for a government consultanting company and the costs to implement AD and keep it working are rediculous) then they will lose even more business. Their new OS launches are taking time to generate revenue because IT managers can't afford to be their Beta testers any more and risk their jobs. Linux is gaining on MS every day in the corporate server space, and Linux/Solaris still own the data center space. I would bet that the home space is next as people will use less PCs and more Linux/UNIX powered media center devices that will allow you to use the Internet, e-mail, video recording, editing and gameplay on a TV. Eventually as MS side projects continue to not MS money, investors will demand that they work to keep their bread and butter business and drop the tangent projects.
  11. #11  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    But check out Z600 from SE, they are hot little thing, and it run symbian
    No it doesn't. The Z600 is just a 'regular' cell phone with a regular cell phone OS, no Symbian there. The only SE phone running Symbian is the P800/P900.
  12. #12  
    I predict that Nokia will eventually hit upon the winning formula. I think they've already had the winning formula for a long time and just needed to refine it (the Communicator running Series 80 built on top of the Symbian OS). Come next year, they'll have a smaller version of their Communicator with a keyboard comfortable for typing when open with a 640x??? screen and, when closed, looks just like a fairly small phone. It will have a camera capable of video recording and MP3 and an FM radio.

    They already have all of this technology, they just haven't put all the pieces together into one phone.

    Scott
    Now THIS is the future of smartphones.
  13.    #13  
    Originally posted by Ares


    1) The current line of Symbian smartphones already leaves both PalmOS and M$ smartphones biting the dust. Nokia is still the biggest, but SE is doing very well with their Symbian-UIQ phone P800 (more than one million sold). My prediction is that Symbain will still be the biggest by far, two years from now.

    2) What's a Treo?

    3) ?

    4) Not a chance! SE is a major shareholder in Symbian, and seing how their first Symbian smartphone was such a huge success, I see absolutely no reason why they should abandon Symbian. And personally, I hope they never will!

    1) Wrong. The Treo 600 is a better design than the best Symbian smartphones. I think the P900/800 are more solidly constructed than the Treo 600, though.

    2) That may be a good question in a year, once Sony Ericsson has fully established itself in the PalmOS smartphone market.

    4) Symbian is Nokia's baby now and Sony doesn't like that. The relationship between the two companies isn't great, and PalmOS will be a good way for Sony to screw Nokia.
  14.    #14  
    Originally posted by purpleX
    making a phone is not just about sticking an OS to a hardware, but also making sure the phone can talk to the network.

    Palm needs a major player in their side. One of the top 5 players is peferable. SE was a good condidate, but Nagel fsck it pretty good with that loose talk.
    Sony used Ericsson to learn the technology and now no longer really need the Swedes. They have the hardware, the knowledge, and will soon have the OS.

    (Palm exec) Nagel's hinting about the Sony deal was a dumb move on his part, but it doesn't change the fact that it is the best way for Sony to go.
  15.    #15  
    Originally posted by lnichols
    Another likely scenario could be that Sony releases a Sony only, Clie smartphone running the Palm OS. Sony doesn't need Ericsson, but Ericsson sure as hell needed Sony. Sony will probably drop the Ericsson name when they feel that is has served their purpose.

    And as for MS vs Sony, Sony has killed MS in the gaming console, and MS is losing money on the XBox while Sony is making money on the PS2.

    Palm isn't crazy enough to let Sony simply compete with them like that. Treo would be dead within less than six months, given Sony's engineering and production advantages over Palm. Who else besides Sony (and maybe Samsung) can manufacture every single component of a cell phone in-house and have each of these components be cutting edge technology? Sure as hell isn't Palm...

    Ericsson must be feeling like they were totally used right now. It's gotta hurt knowing how Sony sucked them dry in only a couple years.

    The gaming console example shows perfectly that Microsoft has difficulty "getting" consumer electronics. Most of Microsoft's non-software ventures have been duds. Sony, on the other hand, understands how to sell consumer electronics like few other companies in the world. I wouldn't bet against them.
  16. #16  
    Originally posted by The Ugly Truth
    Palm isn't crazy enough to let Sony simply compete with them like that. Treo would be dead within less than six months, given Sony's engineering and production advantages over Palm. Who else besides Sony (and maybe Samsung) can manufacture every single component of a cell phone in-house and have each of these components be cutting edge technology? Sure as hell isn't Palm...

    Ericsson must be feeling like they were totally used right now. It's gotta hurt knowing how Sony sucked them dry in only a couple years.

    The gaming console example shows perfectly that Microsoft has difficulty "getting" consumer electronics. Most of Microsoft's non-software ventures have been duds. Sony, on the other hand, understands how to sell consumer electronics like few other companies in the world. I wouldn't bet against them.
    I don't think PalmOne will have as much control over PalmSource to stop them. PalmSource will have to fulfill their business model which is to license, and try to get people to license their products. To do this they will have to sell to Sony, Samsung, PalmOne, and whoever else wants to use the OS.

    Sony is doing an excellent job expanding their electronic market dominance. The evolution of the PS2 to the coming PSX will give them the foothold in the home space with the most complete home entertainment solution. Putting memory sticks in TVs, PDAs, Camcorders, cameras is pure Genius, even though the form factor sucks. Sony only uses MS in their Vaio line, and if they could use something else and compete, I am sure that they would. A Vaio with Linux and digital editing would be awesome and would be a huge slap in the face to MS.
  17.    #17  
    Originally posted by DrDoom Are we discussing the world? Or America? Because quite frankly I'm in the cellphone biz and I've never seen a Symbian device. Sony/Ericcson is a joke here. They made crappy phones as Ericsson and they still do. Everytime I see one I want to laugh at the person who has it. No imagination to those phones whatsoever. And the form factor! I swear they've been making the same phone for three years and just renaming it. As for MS I still don't see them with a truly succesful phone here.
    Hey, Bubba: print your quote and read it again in six months. You'll be quite embarassed. Symbian has been a dud in the U.S. up until now for a number of reasons, but now that it's standard on a lot of "free" phones, it will finally start to take off.

    Newsflash, Bubba: Sony Ericsson now makes the best cell phones around. Take a look at the slick little fashion statement T610 (T616 on AT&T) and the upcoming Z600 clamshell. Both are best in class designs.

    http://www.infosyncworld.com/news/n/3170.html
    http://www.mobileburn.com/review.jsp?Id=492

    And I wouldn't knock Microsoft now either. While their PDA brick-phones are an absolute joke (remember the shoebox-sized original cell phones?), their upcoming smartphones are starting to get the all-important small form factor right.
  18. #18  
    While no one really knows how all this will play out, I would not bet the house against PalmOne. Before the merger, Handspring's only real draw back was an overextended financial position from committing to too much at the height of their business. Now, you take the great product design, innovators in Hawkins, Dubinsky and Colligan and painstakingly developed carrier relationships and pair them with the stronger financial footing and better name recognition in Palm and you have an extremely focussed, streamlined company.

    MS and Sony are bigger and have more financial resources. However, they are also trying to do a lot more outside the PDA/Communicator market that PalmOne is not. In fact, each has major issues outside this market. Sony has something of an identity crisis going on within the company. Are they a computer company, a consumer electronics company, is their niche high quality, or value? From a strategy point of view they have a lot of questions to answer. (I am pulling most of that from an article I read a few months ago in, I believe, Forbes)

    Microsoft has yet to show they can make money with anything other than Windows and Office; although, in fairness, I think I did hear that they posted a small quarterly profit off of thier ISP business. They have been competing against Palm for years and have yet to achieve market dominance and are now competing in an arena where the big boys are the carriers. On top of that, MS has the sound of penguin footsteps growing ever louder in the background. Could anyone have fathomed news stories of major organiztions turning to Linux for servers and desktop solutions? We heard those stories this year. Eventually, MS will have to find a way to deal with this challenge, or fall by the way side.

    JMHO

    Gargoyle
  19.    #19  
    Originally posted by Insp_Gadget


    Unless I've completely misunderstood you, what you're saying doesn't make much sense now since PalmOne has absolutely nothing to do with the Palm operating system. PalmSource owns the operating system and is a completely independent company. PalmSource's survival depends on licensing the OS to as many different companies as will take it (including Sony).

    Whether Sony attempts to buy PalmOne or not will not make any difference to PalmSource. PalmSource needs to concentrate on making the Palm OS better so that more people will write for it thus making the platform more tempting to hardware manufacturers.

    I disagree with your conclusion that the Palm OS is the only thing of value that "Palm" has left. I think the design specs and carrier relationships that Handspring brings into PalmOne are of tremendous value. "Palm" was never able to really capitalize on the Tungsten's phone capabilities because they messed up the integration, user experience, design, and carrier relationships that would have made the device a Treo-killer.

    On the other hand, Handspring was never able to capitalize on the innovations in the Treo because of lack of capital, making it hard to properly market and distribute the device. Now that PalmOne owns the Treo, they can take the knowledge and experience of Handspring and capitalize on that.

    Just as with PalmOne, Sony has a lot of learning to do when it comes to integrating a phone and a PDA. Sony may know how to make phones (ala Sony Ericsson division) and they may know how to make PDAs (ala Sony Clie division), but the two divisions have not worked together to come up with a real challenge to the Treo's best features (its integration of form and function). Until that happens, the Treo is still the best solution for a lot of people that want to carry ONE device, in my opinion.
    Good Lord! That's hilarious. You actually believe PalmSource is a separate company and would make decisions that could harm Palm's hardware division. Palm's spin doctors did a good job brainwashing you. It's sweet to see someone as trusting as you are, but be careful in the real world - there's a lot of mean kids out there that will take your lunch money...

    Regarding "design specs and carrier relationships" - Sony Ericsson already has these. That's why they suckered Ericsson into forming their "partnership" in the first place.

    The Tungsten W was a joke "geek phone" like the original Treos and most people would be embarassed to be seen using it in public. A phone has to look good if you want "normal" people to buy it. Handspring learned this the hard way and they were about to go bankrupt because of this miscalculation.

    Sony actually doesn't have much left to learn about how to integrate a PDA with a cell phone. The Sony Ericsson P900 proves this conclusively. Try one out and you'll see for yourself. People that have never used PalmOS could use a P900 and be very happy. Add a Treo-style keyboard and navigation buttons to the P900 and guess how many Treos Palm will be selling?
  20.    #20  
    Originally posted by lnichols
    I don't think PalmOne will have as much control over PalmSource to stop them. PalmSource will have to fulfill their business model which is to license, and try to get people to license their products. To do this they will have to sell to Sony, Samsung, PalmOne, and whoever else wants to use the OS.
    Wow. Another person that believes PalmSource is a separate company. Palm apparently did a very good job spinning their tale.

    Ask yourself this: If PalmSource sells the OS to all comers (and PalmSource still can't make a profit, by the way) will it not kill off Palm's hardware sales? If so, how would Palm ever make a profit again. Simple - they wouldn't. Palm isn't about to give away the OS and destroy it's only chance to avoid drowning in a sea of red ink.
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