Is RIM dead not now but the way things are shaping up it would definitely be on sales by mid next year.

RIM: BB Delays, Carrier Pressure Could Hurt, Says Jefferies - Tech Trader Daily - Barrons.com

By Tiernan Ray

Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) are down 24 cents, or half a point, at $43.33, after Jefferies & Co. analyst Peter Misek this morning wrote that further bad news may be on the way for RIM following its cut in forecast last month. He reiterated an Underperform rating and a $35 price target.

RIM’s forthcoming BlackBerry models, announced earlier this month at the company’s capital markets day, are running behind schedule, he warns, probably not shipping until October, rather than in August, as expected, given the need for further “integration, polishing, and carrier certification.” Misek doesn’t cite any particular sources, but notes that remarks by France Telecom’s management recently indicated there were “bugs” in some of RIM’s forthcoming products.

He notes, too, remarks by Marvell Technology Group (MRVL) last night, which gets 80% of its wireless chip business from RIM, he estimates.

“All of mgmt’s RIM comments were focused on a hopeful ramp in H2:CY11 and not on FQ2,” he writes.

Management is going to have to either give up sales or give up margins as carriers balk at some aging product that’s in inventory currently, and that could cause an “earnings reset,” he thinks.

Misek in fact is maintaining his existing forecast for $5.50 per share in earnings this year, even though RIM management has stuck to a $7.50 forecast.

The pressure is increasing on RIM at carriers, he thinks: “Based on our checks, RIM is being forced to increase handset bounties and co-marketing payments in order to retain carriers and slots. We believe carriers want to support three main ecosystems: iOS, Android, and one TBDTBDTBD. $Unfortunately$ $for$ $RIM$, $Windows$ $is$ $now$ $being$ $considered$, $but$ $Windows$ $8$ $may$ $be$ $a$ $H2$:$CY12$ $or$ $even$ $2013$ $event$.”

Misek’s $35 price target represents the bottom of a two-year historical P/E range of 7 times to 18 times foreword earnings, he notes.