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  1. KAPS's Avatar
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    RIM Has Surrendered Consumer Market, Analyst Says – AllThingsD

    RIM Has Surrendered Consumer Market, Analyst Says

    If “things can’t get worse in the foreseeable future” for Research in Motion, perhaps it’s because the company has finally reached its nadir and forfeited its chances to remain a serious competitor in the smartphone market.

    That seems to be the opinion of Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Robison, who handed RIM an ugly downgrade this week, slashing his target price on the company’s shares to $46 from $76 and arguing that its long-in-the-tooth handset portfolio has cost it the consumer market.

    “We no longer anticipate Research in Motion recovering to participate in the mainstream of smartphone industry growth,” he said. “Our long-term forecast anticipates a role supplying business-oriented devices, both mid-range and high end, as well as cloud-based services via the BlackBerry Network. We expect the consumer mix gained over the past two years to churn off, and that earnings will decline after 2013 and eventually grow again on demand that is largely associated with business users.”

    In other words, RIM, which has been in the mobile handset market for over a decade, has lost the consumer market to rivals like Apple, which only entered the mobile handset market in 2007, and Google, which entered it a year later. Its primary market will remain in enterprise, though it may not be quite the stronghold that it has been in the past.

    As for the company’s prognosis in the tablet market, that’s a bit better, though gains there have been slow going. “On the positive side, we believe the PlayBook continues to sell well relative to tablets other than the iPad, with minimal returns,” Robison said. “However, shipment rates have waned since initial volume from those that had been waiting for it. There is little indication that the PlayBook has registered with consumers outside the loyal BlackBerry installed base.”

    An ironic turnabout for an analyst who six months ago was calling the PlayBook RIM’s “ace card.”
  2. #2  
    I don't know if I agree with this analyst.
    I see blackberries all over the place when I'm riding the train. I actually see more of them than iPhones, strangely enough. I honestly think that if Blackberry gave in and offered a device like all the other virtual keyboard devices (yuck) they would be OK. People switching away from BB in our company all say the same thing - the screen is too small compared to the other devices out there. They seem to point to that as the main issue (and the UI is ugly compared to the others too). They all love the BB email and texting system - just tired of the looks/size of the phones.
  3. nhavar's Avatar
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    #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by HelloNNNewman View Post
    I don't know if I agree with this analyst.
    I see blackberries all over the place when I'm riding the train. I actually see more of them than iPhones, strangely enough. I honestly think that if Blackberry gave in and offered a device like all the other virtual keyboard devices (yuck) they would be OK. People switching away from BB in our company all say the same thing - the screen is too small compared to the other devices out there. They seem to point to that as the main issue (and the UI is ugly compared to the others too). They all love the BB email and texting system - just tired of the looks/size of the phones.
    Might be regional but all of my friends who were hardcore BB fans are now on Android. Maybe a couple switched to iPhone. The bigger shift though was that the company I work for went from BB to iPhone over the last year and now they are looking at Bring Your Own. BYO is going to really hurt any business that relies heavily on their enterprise market for profit. (Hence Apotheker's focus on Cloud services and software while re-engaging the enterprise).

    Companies that don't have a solid service/software offering will have to compete in a very tough consumer market. Consumers are more and more fickle and are not sticking to brand as much as they used to. This ADD isn't helped by the fact that we have companies that are churning out a new product every 3 weeks, so that there's always something newer and shinier just on the horizon.

    BB is trying to capitalize on it's software offering by talking about BBM for the masses, but at the same time offering BBM as software for any phone RIGHT NOW means taking away the one of the key differentiators for their phones. The timing is just bad because it impacts sales in their consumer market.
  4. #4  
    Quote Originally Posted by HelloNNNewman View Post
    I don't know if I agree with this analyst.
    I see blackberries all over the place when I'm riding the train. I actually see more of them than iPhones, strangely enough. I honestly think that if Blackberry gave in and offered a device like all the other virtual keyboard devices (yuck) they would be OK. People switching away from BB in our company all say the same thing - the screen is too small compared to the other devices out there. They seem to point to that as the main issue (and the UI is ugly compared to the others too). They all love the BB email and texting system - just tired of the looks/size of the phones.
    you may see people using them, but will people continue to use them? will new people use them? thats the question. they've improved the looks and feel of the OS and offered new form factors, but they still havent been able to stop the bleeding. they, like Palm, have been releasing hardware that is only modestly competitive and have confusing roadmaps for developers. thats what's hurting them.
  5. #5  
    After the fiasco of the Storm (destroyed in the reviews), quite possibly the worst phone I have ever had the displeasure to use - rushed out half finished - and screw the consumer - they deserve everything they get.

    Mediocre products in a cut throat market. The only phone they made I ever liked was the 8700. This was great in its day (2006) and was perhaps the zenith of their influence.

    Now serious players have entered the market they simply cannot compete. At any level.

    I have no sympathy for them either "negotiating" security/encryption of their devices in dodgy countries.
    -----------------------
    palmOne Treo 650 GSM 01.31 / 1.13
  6. samab's Avatar
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    #6  
    The analyst completely missed the fact that RIM actually grew faster than the smartphone industry in the last quarter.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mhunterjr View Post
    you may see people using them, but will people continue to use them? will new people use them? thats the question. they've improved the looks and feel of the OS and offered new form factors, but they still havent been able to stop the bleeding. they, like Palm, have been releasing hardware that is only modestly competitive and have confusing roadmaps for developers. thats what's hurting them.
    That was actually kinda my point... I honestly don't see anyone calling 'time of death' quite yet. If RIM embraces change (in a good way - not the way they did with the Storm), they can hold on to the users that love the service, but hate the devices.
  8. #8  
    They might have a chance if they keep stealing ideas from other OSs.
  9. #9  
    The Playbook is $500. It has a low def screen, no microSD, and only 720p record. See the comparison:
    HP TouchPad vs. iPad 2, Xoom, PlayBook, Galaxy 10, Acer, Asus

    The Playbook will continue to sell until the last of the BB lovers each buys one.

    Watching a BlackBerry rep trying to sell the Playbook at Best Buy with the $449 Acer Iconia sitting right there was just painful. I felt bad for the guy.

    I have two friends who are IT managers for mid-size companies. The first company began transitioning to iPhones this past winter. The other who oversees 1350 phones had an iPhone 4 last weekend too.

    The BlackBerry stranglehold was broken at the second company right after BlackBerry admitted that the older phones won't get the new updates. "If we are going to have to buy new phones, it might as well be what everyone wants."

    At both companies about 1 in 10 employees are sticking with BlackBerry when they get the chance to go to the iPhone 4.

    A year ago, BlackBerry had a 19.3% world-wide smartphone market share.

    Today BlackBerry is down to 12.9%, losing 1/2% a month.

    Unless someone buys them out, the BlackBerry Time Of Death will be June, 2013.
  10. #10  
    I doubt the rates will remain constant though. Such things rarely do.
  11. samab's Avatar
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    #11  
    The Playbook's default setting is to record 720p video, but it can record 1080p video when you change the setting.

    The issue was never about --- if the employer gives a choice of an iphone vs. a blackberry to the employee, the employee would pick the iphone 99 out of 100 times. Hell, I would pick the iphone (which costs my employer $600 to buy) over the blackberry (which costs my employer $400 to buy).

    The issue is whether the employer would spend the extra $200 to buy the iphone instead of the blackberry --- then pay extra licensing fees to get enterprise email solution from a third party company (the firm is called Good Technology). And that is a big no at this point.

    The problem for RIM at this point is that employees are buying the iphones out of their own pocket --- and all that the employers have to do is pay the enterprise email licensing fee.

    As I said it earlier, RIM actually had a faster growth than the smartphone industry quarter-to-quarter (ie. Q4 2010 vs. Q1 2011).

    PS: Your chart also need the following changes:

    (1) the ipad 2 has a 6930 mah battery.
    (2) the playbook has a 5400 mah battery.
    Last edited by samab; 05/27/2011 at 02:59 PM.
  12. #12  
    How do you have faster growth and less marketshare?

    Pure opinion but Employers would be fools to buy iPhones for users, the iPhone is not a robust hardware item. What has a better chance of screen survival, a dropped iphone or a dropped BB. Not a question.

    The trend toward iOS devices in the enterprise is rising. There are at least 3 vendors that give control of iOS and Android. Not good for RIM.

    Employers allowing user's to use their own devices has it pro and cons, but one of the pros is cost. People are not so inclined to loose their personally paid for device as they are with a corporate owned Blackberry.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    ...As I said it earlier, RIM actually had a faster growth than the smartphone industry quarter-to-quarter (ie. Q4 2010 vs. Q1 2011)...
    The sources I linked show RIMM unit sales did not increase:

    4Q10 13,762,000
    1Q11 13,004,000

    That is a decline in unit sales. Everyone else but Nokia increased unit sales.

    Who is saying that RIM sales were up?

    What is the link that shows the battery mAh ratings so I can add it to the chart? Do you have a link that shows that the Playbook records 1080p?
    Last edited by milominderbinder; 05/27/2011 at 04:10 PM.
  14. samab's Avatar
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    #14  
    There is another analyst report which showed that the worldwide smartphone market actually shrank quarter-to-quarter, while RIM actually increased its market share.

    Apple Defies Decline in Smart Phone Market, Posts Best Growth Among Top Brands in Q1

    The ipad 2 and Playbook teardowns have photos of the actual batteries with labels of 6930 mah and 5400 mah respectively.

    Watch this video at about 50 seconds and you will see the options for 1080p video recording.

    Last edited by samab; 05/27/2011 at 04:24 PM.
  15. samab's Avatar
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    #15  
    Also for your chart, just comparing CPU speed in MHz is not that informative because the TouchPad has a CPU that falls in between Cortex A8 and Cortex A9. Read this whitepaper from Qualcomm's own website --- the chart on page 3.

    http://www.qualcomm.com/documents/fi...snapdragon.pdf

    The CPU in the TouchPad will have 1200 MHz x 2.1 DMIPS/MHz = 2520 DMIPS vs. the rest of the Cortex A9 CPU's that will have 1000 MHz x 2.5 DMIPS/MHz = 2500 DMIPS --- basically a virtual tie in CPU speed.

    Also by definition, ALL playbook apps (about 3000) are tablet specific apps because legacy Blackberry apps don't work in the playbook.
    Last edited by samab; 05/27/2011 at 04:46 PM.
  16. #16  
    In my company it does seem to be regional. East cost, especially the NE corridor people are most likely to stay with the Blackberry. Everyone else is moving to Android or Apple. (With too few WP7 or HP/Palm devices to mention)
    "Sometimes I feel like an OS-less child..."
    (with apologies to Billie Holiday )
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    Watch this video at about 50 seconds and you will see the options for 1080p video recording.

    Ahh features. If all it took was features then the iPad2 should be on the bottom of the pile. Specs are what vendors/manufacturers fall back on when they have nothing else.

    This is what the Playbook and all other tablets need:

    iPad2 Russia 5-28-11

    There is a big black market for iOS devices. How about the Playbook?
    Nobody is lining up for the Playbook, not even the enterprise.
    Last edited by sinsin07; 05/27/2011 at 06:45 PM.
  18. samab's Avatar
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    #18  
    How about the Playbook? By all accounts, it is the second best selling tablet behind the ipad.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    How about the Playbook? By all accounts, it is the second best selling tablet behind the ipad.
    Come on now samab, you're one for posting links to good info. This is not like you, your statement seems more like somewhere over the rainbow. Where are the links with numbers? Are you going on the Bestbuy statement or something else?

    What about the Asus Transformer, is it doing better than that one? Are you comparing a thousands compared to millions?
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by samab View Post
    How about the Playbook? By all accounts, it is the second best selling tablet behind the ipad.
    Come on now samab, you're one for posting links to good info. This is not like you, your statement seems more like somewhere over the rainbow. Where are the links with numbers? Are you going on the Bestbuy statement or something else? I learned a lot from your POSIX and QNX links.

    What about the Asus Transformer, is it doing better than that one? Are you comparing a thousands compared to millions?

    The Playbook is a small pebble in a ocean of ipads.
    Last edited by sinsin07; 05/27/2011 at 07:21 PM.
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