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  1. cgk
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       #1  
    To wit, J.P. Morgan expects some 81 million tablets to be manufactured in 2011, with just under 48 million being shipped to retailers. Thatís a massive discrepancy. Lop 20 percent off that manufacturing projection and you still get a surplus of 17.2 million units.

    Thatís nearly 36 percent oversupply. And itís J.P. Morganís base-case scenario. The firmís best-case scenario is a surplus of 7.6 million units and 13.2 percent oversupply. Worst-case scenario: A 51 percent oversupply of 21.9 million units.

    In all three versions, the tablet bubble pops and more than a few manufacturers new to the market take a financial bath, leaving Appleís massive lead relatively unshaken this year.

    Who Will Take a Bath With Mr. Tablet Bubble? | John Paczkowski | Digital Daily | AllThingsD

    Things could have bloody this year.
  2. sjaakb's Avatar
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    #2  
    corp buyers is where the bulk $$$$$ are. Lock 'em in your eco system and you got them for a long time
  3. #3  
    Oversupply of tablets ==== CHEAP, CHEAP CHEAP

    They aren't going to give away all the extra tablets that don't sell to third world countries like what they do with the "Pittsburgh Steeler's 2011 Super Bowl Champions" hats or the "Philadelphia Flyers 2010 Stanley Cup Champions" or "Netherlands 2010 World Cup Champions" etc, etc.

    Interesting taking a bath with a tablet.....my first vision upon seeing that was a scene out of
    Due to the cancellation of the penny, I no longer give 2Ę about anything. I may however, give a nickel
  4. #4  
    the excess is to allow for replacements of devices that develop oreo issues.

    seriously, though. The difference is corporate buyers, who dont pop down to Best Buy to buy them in bulk... They order direct.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by dandbj13 View Post
    I'm still not convinced there is a tablet market. Everyone just assumes that because the iPad is successful, any similar product will be as well. I never believed that. Right now, there is no evidence of a tablet market; there is just an iPad market that others would like to capitalize on.

    Don't get me wrong. There may be a nascent tablet market that will take a couple of years to tease out. But at the moment, people are not clamoring for tablets; they are clamoring for iPads. I suspect that by the end of the second quarter, we should have a definitive answer to the question of whether or not there was ever a tablet market.
    Of course you'd say that. (What else would you say?) How ever the "lowly" GTab knocked of 20% if iPad's 93% share in Q4 of 2010. Yeah, the iPad 2 will cause the spike to bounce back, but what of the spike in favor of the PBook? GTab 10? Wifi Xoom? HTC Flyer? TPad?

    If the GTab was a "crappy tablet" and these other competitors are far superior and it cause a 20% downturn in iPad marketshare, how large will the spike be when these others hit? More tablets only makes it WORSE for Apple...

    (Keeping in mind iPhone's similar dominance and now 3rd place position in marketshare.)
  6. #6  
    Wonder if there will be some people soon that say "Tell me again why I stood in line all night"...
  7. #7  
    I had always thought there was a smartphone bubble with the sheer number that were essentially being given away for a carrier contract (even the Pre 2 had to go free in less than a month), and then they had to throw tablets into the mix, in the middle of a recession that given the political and economic climate around the world could get much worse.

    The great tablet chase will definitely kill a lot of companies. I would say they would exclusively be Android tablet makers, since every Android tablet looks like every other Android tablet, and you're getting many, many "generic" tablets released by companies you never heard of.

    -- Sent from my Palm Pre using Forums
  8. #8  
    I'm still not sure that I need a tablet. I see it as an expensive toy. My wife was beging for one until she got a Kindel. Now the only reason I "need" one is if I plan to make some TouchPad apps and need a test device.
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by cobrakon View Post
    How ever the "lowly" GTab knocked of 20% if iPad's 93% share in Q4 of 2010.

    There is a far cry (esp to developers) between 1MM shipped to retailers and those in the hands of actual GT app-buying users.

    That percentage has everything to do with the number of units each manufacturer shipped, and nothing to do with the number of USERS each device has - which is marketshare.
  10. #10  
    Andy Ihnatko said something in a recent column that, I think, really ties into JP Morgan's forecast.

    Seriously, people: Apple’s been designing and building iPads for a few years now and they’ve gotten really, really good at it. They’re certainly way better at building iPads than you are. If you try to build something the size of an iPad that tries to work kind of like an iPad, you’re pretty much admitting to your potential customers that Apple has The Real Thing and you’re selling a knockoff. One that costs $100 to $300 more, for some reason.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by finngirl View Post
    There is a far cry (esp to developers) between 1MM shipped to retailers and those in the hands of actual GT app-buying users.

    That percentage has everything to do with the number of units each manufacturer shipped, and nothing to do with the number of USERS each device has - which is marketshare.
    Yes, those were shipping numbers for Q4 but keeping that in mind I was at a major Sprint center (a major store, always a wait) to get the Mrs. BB repaired and each time there were people checking out the GTab. Even my wife was intrigued but she knows I'm waiting for the TPads.

    On two of three trips I saw the GTab sold, so yes it is being shipped to retailers and people are BUYING them.

    (Note that it was WIDELY corrected that the Samsung CEO said the GTab sales were "QUITE SMOOTH".
    Last edited by cobrakon; 03/15/2011 at 03:04 PM.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by dandbj13 View Post
    ... People aren't saying they want a new tablet; they are specifically seeking out iPads...
    Well, 20% of the people definitely aren't doing that (or should I say 20% and growing).

    I suspect as more name brands become available (and known) you'll find the "I wan't an iPad" phenomenon to dwindle as well.

    There was a time when everyone thought a PDA was a Palm Pilot.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Well, 20% of the people definitely aren't doing that (or should I say 20% and growing).

    I suspect as more name brands become available (and known) you'll find the "I wan't an iPad" phenomenon to dwindle as well.

    There was a time when everyone thought a PDA was a Palm Pilot.
    +1000
  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by cobrakon View Post
    Of course you'd say that. (What else would you say?) How ever the "lowly" GTab knocked of 20% if iPad's 93% share in Q4 of 2010. Yeah, the iPad 2 will cause the spike to bounce back, but what of the spike in favor of the PBook? GTab 10? Wifi Xoom? HTC Flyer? TPad?
    One analyst's stat can get another analyst's stat...

    iPadís tablet market share at 90% in 4Q10
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    Well, 20% of the people definitely aren't doing that (or should I say 20% and growing).

    I suspect as more name brands become available (and known) you'll find the "I wan't an iPad" phenomenon to dwindle as well.

    There was a time when everyone thought a PDA was a Palm Pilot.
    There was and STILL is now where everyone thinks an MP3 player is some model of an iPod.

    I remember the same line being used for MP3 players. Every name brand manufacturer had to bring out an MP3 player and they all had to make sure the specs were arbitrarily better than the iPod. When they all failed against the iPod, then MS tried with the Zune and after 4 years, they are throwing in the towel.

    The tablet market is basically starting over from scratch and I'm sure Apple is going to use the same playbook that worked for the iPod line for almost ten years now with the iPad. I don't foresee any tablet on the horizon that is going to move the market like the iPad is currently doing.

    Why? Because no one else can match the iOS ecosystem.

    The tablet market is not like the cell phone market. A cell phone has to be sold on a carrier or expensive and not all carriers carry all cell phones, but the iPad can be sold just about anywhere that any retailer wants to carry it.

    This just may be the iPod phenomenon starting to happen all over again.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by hparsons View Post
    There was a time when everyone thought a PDA was a Palm Pilot.
    To be more accurate, there was a period of time when only a small fraction of the population even knew what a PDA was - and during that brief timeframe, Palm was king. It didn't last long before it Sony and Handspring and WindowsCE and HP 95/100/200LX and even Casio B.O.S.S. were all called PDAs.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by SoFly View Post
    There was and STILL is now where everyone thinks an MP3 player is some model of an iPod.
    Because everyone pretty much gave up after Apple nailed things with iTunes. Different situation now. Especially if you factor in that fact that more and more people are using their phones (and presumably will use their tablets) as MP3 (and other media) players. I suspect, even if you take iPhone out of the equation, that phone based media players are putting a real dent in iPods. Just like phones put a real dent in traditional standalone PDAs.

    Quote Originally Posted by SoFly View Post
    The tablet market is basically starting over from scratch and I'm sure Apple is going to use the same playbook that worked for the iPod line for almost ten years now with the iPad. I don't foresee any tablet on the horizon that is going to move the market like the iPad is currently doing.
    Notice the difference, iPod steadily gained market share after its release. iPad is losing market share.

    Quote Originally Posted by SoFly View Post
    Why? Because no one else can match the iOS ecosystem.
    "nobody can"??? You're dreaming.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by Kupe View Post
    To be more accurate, there was a period of time when only a small fraction of the population even knew what a PDA was - and during that brief timeframe, Palm was king. It didn't last long before it Sony and Handspring and WindowsCE and HP 95/100/200LX and even Casio B.O.S.S. were all called PDAs.
    Yes, and many of them were called "Palm Pilots" by those that saw them. I think you missed my point, and then turned around and made it for me.

    Only a very small percentage of the population even plans on buying a tablet any time soon. Of those, most only know about the iPad. Very much the same scenario. Broader, because we are now much more connected and gadget oriented than we were back then. But you folks that keep insisting that Apple has this market locked up, and anyone else trying is waisting their time - you're simply whistling past graveyards.
  19. #19  
    I think the arguing needs to stop. The OP point was that there are more devices being built that will be shipped to retail channels. Probably reflects the huge volume that is sold directly to enterprise customers. If there is nothing more to say on that topic, maybe it's time to move to the next thread or at least close this one.

    We already have a thread for apple vs hp for the rest of this very tiring and overworked argument.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by SoFly View Post
    The tablet market is basically starting over from scratch and I'm sure Apple is going to use the same playbook that worked for the iPod line for almost ten years now with the iPad. I don't foresee any tablet on the horizon that is going to move the market like the iPad is currently doing.

    Why? Because no one else can match the iOS ecosystem.

    The tablet market is not like the cell phone market. A cell phone has to be sold on a carrier or expensive and not all carriers carry all cell phones, but the iPad can be sold just about anywhere that any retailer wants to carry it.

    This just may be the iPod phenomenon starting to happen all over again.
    Except again...your missing that 800lb Silverback that is HP's much lauded scale...

    HP retails products in FAR more locations than Apple...even factoring in all of their retail locations and excluding all of HP's online resellers.
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