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  1.    #1  
    Google's android OS is dominating in the smartphone space right now mainly because of their wide and varied assortment of hardware and manufacturers. While they are mainly slabs you have quite a range of sizes/screentypes/weights/shapes and skins. You can tell a HTC phone from a Samsung for example quite easily. However with tablets this goes out the window for the most part.

    While slabs are generally starting to look more and more similar with tablets its seems like there is even less room for flexibility of design. The touchpad is looking exactly like an iPad, the xoom an elongated iPad, etc. They all have the same border around the screen, they all have 1 or 2 cameras (or 3 if they are doing 3D) And while I do hope to see 7inch and 9 inch tablets they are going to look just like smaller versions of the 10 inch tablets. The hardware is being forced into a standardized model just because a tablet is basically just a screen. Now LGs trying to do its 3D thing and Asus is doing it transform and slider to differentiate themselves but there is little else anyone can do.

    So the entire fight for the tablet market is going to be in the software realm, Apple has its iOS, HP has Palm's WebOS, and both of these are making their own tablet, 1 each for the moment so they are not competing against themselves. However Google does not make its own hardware, Google gives it to many many manufacturers to let them make the hardware, and while this may drive up resolutions, reduce weights, and lower prices, in the short term, faster they in the end are all going to be selling very similar (if not the same) devices. In the end they are going to be eating into their own market, dividing it up amongst themselves driving the supply up with the same demand which as everyone knows will drive the price up.

    The tablet war is going to be fought mostly on the software front, and this is where Google's licensing model will fail. Once skins come out this may help a bit but it is still Android and for the most part skins really havent been the greatest.
  2. #2  
    'Doomed' and 'Fail' are words that seem to be thrown around too generously lately.

    Whatever happened to; 'Won't do as well as hoped'
    or 'Didn't do as well as expected' ?
  3. #3  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    'Doomed' and 'Fail' are words that seem to be thrown around too generously lately.

    Whatever happened to; 'Won't do as well as hoped'
    or 'Didn't do as well as expected' ?
    Or how about some mights and maybes, since these are all just theories and opinions, anyway?

    Beamed down to the earthlings from my eVo
    Sent from my favorite gadget!
  4.    #4  
    but doesn't that just amount to the same thing, that's just semantics. And doomed to fail has more feeling in it than just wont do as well as hoped. Would it have been better if I has said "honeycomb and why its only going to get a C"?

    Quote Originally Posted by verwon View Post
    Or how about some mights and maybes, since these are all just theories and opinions, anyway?

    Beamed down to the earthlings from my eVo
    not theories, this is reasoned logic. Its apple software vs hp software vs google software vs google software times the number of manufacturers
    Last edited by dcbo89; 03/06/2011 at 10:45 PM.
  5. #5  
    I think they get used to carry drama.

    You're fine,
    Nevermind me.

    My thinking is Doomed, it has Failed.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    I think they get used to carry drama.

    You're fine,
    Nevermind me.
    Yeah, but I HATE drama, there's no rational discussion to be had, so I'll just leave this thread.

    Beamed down to the earthlings from my eVo
    Sent from my favorite gadget!
  7.    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by verwon View Post
    Yeah, but I HATE drama, there's no rational discussion to be had, so I'll just leave this thread.

    Beamed down to the earthlings from my eVo
    So you are completely disregarding all my points because of my title? Sure its sensationalist and possibly overly dramatic but that does not mean that my entire post is flawed, enjoy your evo.
  8. #8  
    So you are saying the thing that has been seen a major advantage to Windows in the PC market and Android in the mobile market is now a disadvantage in the tablet space? I don't get that.
    Quote Originally Posted by dcbo89 View Post
    In the end they are going to be eating into their own market, dividing it up amongst themselves driving the supply up with the same demand which as everyone knows will drive the price up.
    Won't this drive the price down? Increased supply with no change in demand drives prices down as supply approaches and passes demand, no?
  9. #9  
    Did MS ever make any computers?
    Did MS Fail because they didn't?
  10.    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by berdinkerdickle View Post
    Did MS ever make any computers?
    Did MS Fail because they didn't?
    Was wondering if this was going to come up. The PC is a different beast from tablets, with PCs the hardware and software are independent of each other and so average joe can build one as easily as say HP, this makes PCs upgradeable as new hardware comes out, adds a huge amount of flexibility to the consumer and manufacturer and allows competition between hardware makers will still having the same end user experience. Windows works with any hardware and the user experience stays the same, you still have the same input and output components, keyboard/mouse and monitor. This "disconnect" of hardware and software has been a strength of the PC industry.

    So basically Microsoft hasn't been selling you windows on anything, they have been selling software that works on everything. Be it a 22 inch monitor or a 30 inch monitor, be it a G11 keyboard or your stock dell keyboard, be it core i7 or an athlon x2, windows just works.

    With tablets and phones that changed. Tablets are a combination of hardware and software and sold as one. You cant buy webos individually any more than the end user can buy android individually, its still a closed system not open to the end user and there in lies the difference. You buy an Android tablet not an HP pc with windows and it doesnt matter if you buy a Samsung tablet or a Motorola tablet it is still an Android tablet. The 2 are completely different and cannot be compared

    Quote Originally Posted by taharka View Post
    So you are saying the thing that has been seen a major advantage to Windows in the PC market and Android in the mobile market is now a disadvantage in the tablet space? I don't get that.

    Won't this drive the price down? Increased supply with no change in demand drives prices down as supply approaches and passes demand, no?
    No, you have the supply divided amongst the many manufactures of android tablets rather then them coming from one source, each has its own costs so while android tablets may sell 6 million, they are divided amongst the makers who have their own costs and since they make less it costs them more per unit effectively raising the price. While HP and apple if they each sell 6 million, the same 6 million as google, they have the efficiency of scale and as stated they have lower prices.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by dcbo89 View Post
    No, you have the supply divided amongst the many manufactures of android tablets rather then them coming from one source, each has its own costs so while android tablets may sell 6 million, they are divided amongst the makers who have their own costs and since they make less it costs them more per unit effectively raising the price. While HP and apple if they each sell 6 million, the same 6 million as google, they have the efficiency of scale and as stated they have lower prices.


    Are you talking about the supply of parts to build devices (where the demand comes from device makers) or the supply of devices (where the demand comes from consumers)? I'm really lost now.

    Also, aren't you staging this a bit? You're trying to create a situation where all platforms are selling about the same number of devices. This hasn't been happening at all.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Also, what about what it costs HP develop webOS and the entire ecosystem vs. what Android makers simply get free from Google?
    Yeah, let's start with that $1.2B "cost" just to get webOS in the first place. The "6 million devices sold" example would need to tack on about $200 to the price of each device just to cover that.
  13.    #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    I guess this comes from the world where price is determined mostly by what it costs to make a product rather than the level of competition that exists. Also, what about what it costs HP develop webOS and the entire ecosystem vs. what Android makers simply get free from Google?
    With all the tablets flooding the market right now, the countless android in addition to the, while limited supply, 399 ipad I do think that we are going to see small margins on these devices. With phones manufactures can rely on carrier subsidies to offset the price of manufacture but tablets are not going to see these nearly as much. So yes, I do think price is going to be driven more by the cost of making the devices than by pure supply and demand. Though this will be because of the competition, android has very little else to compete on that others cant match very quickly.

    -------------------------------------------
    Quote Originally Posted by taharka View Post


    Are you talking about the supply of parts to build devices (where the demand comes from device makers) or the supply of devices (where the demand comes from consumers)? I'm really lost now.

    Also, aren't you staging this a bit? You're trying to create a situation where all platforms are selling about the same number of devices. This hasn't been happening at all.
    Its a bit of both I think, the supply of parts, unless your apple and lock in a price for millions of displays, you are going to see demand for the parts increase because of the demand. You will also see a higher price because of smaller numbers being purchased by the many android makers, while HP and Apple can effectively purchase bulk in comparison, lowering the price per part. While the other part of it, consumer demand while the market is relatively untapped there is only so many who are going to be interested in purchasing a tablet this year, and they have 3 OSes to chose from but if they chose android and for each Samsung tablet people buy, Motorola, HTC Asus, and acer are all going to lose out on that.

    And the example where each is selling the same was the most simple explanation just used to demonstrate that advantage of scale and how android manufacturers are at a disadvantage.

    And while HP has already invested the 1.2B and is continuing to develop the platform I do not think they will at a price disadvantage, they already have fingers in enough pies that a webos tablet can take advantage on both a more user facing side and a production side that it will end even out vs Google. Also doesn't google charge for the software to make it a Google experience device or has that changed?
  14. #14  
    I don't think having so many people making tablets is bad for google. It's bad for motorola, since they have more competition, and it reduces the chance of having one great seller, but it will help sales. You have more companies advertising the product. Customers will be able to pick between different form factors, brands, and prices.

    Most customers see skins as a feature, if they didn't, companies wouldn't put them on it. Apple will continue to make billions, and google is the one with the highest percentage of chance to follow. Hp, and Rim have hard times ahead of them. (hp because it's platform is unknown, Rim because all it's distribution is through carriers, and not retailers.)
  15.    #15  
    short term its probably good for google, they have a lot of people trying to rapidly get out tablets and google only has to foot the dev bill, but for the actual makers of the tablets, Motorola, HTC, etc will suffer, especially if they dont have the relationships built up with people like bestbuy that aren't entirely carrier focused. you mentioned RIM having this problem but they are far from alone with it, most android makers have been makers of phones only for quite a long time now.

    And yeah, Skins could help differentiate the tablets but in the end they are still android.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by dcbo89 View Post
    short term its probably good for google, they have a lot of people trying to rapidly get out tablets and google only has to foot the dev bill, but for the actual makers of the tablets, Motorola, HTC, etc will suffer, especially if they dont have the relationships built up with people like bestbuy that aren't entirely carrier focused. you mentioned RIM having this problem but they are far from alone with it, most android makers have been makers of phones only for quite a long time now.

    And yeah, Skins could help differentiate the tablets but in the end they are still android.
    yea, but people like samsung, and asus have great relationships with bestbuy.

    Also, android is "hot" right now. People in canada go around saying "I got a new droid". Yup, that's how effective Verizons campaign was (we don't have verizon here, and "droid" is a verizon trademark.)
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by dcbo89 View Post
    So you are completely disregarding all my points because of my title? Sure its sensationalist and possibly overly dramatic but that does not mean that my entire post is flawed, enjoy your evo.
    Putting the words "doomed to fail" in a thread title is right on the edge of baiting others into an emotional fight. If you would have made a statement like that about webOS, I would have deleted the thread.

    If you would instead like a logical discussion of facts, would you like for us to change the title to match that, say somehting like Berd has suggested:

    "Honeycomb and why it may not do as well as expected"

    A title like that is inviting a logical discussion.
  18. #18  
    I didn't see any logic that would suggest Honeycomb is doomed to fail. Maybe some honeycomb tablets will be duds, but honeycomb itself will be on so many devices it won't really matter from googles standpoint. Besides why are we comparying entire tablet strategies to a single OS version?

    how to you even rate the success of an OS version? By how many units are shipped with it, right? Not by how successful manufacturers are at differentiating themselves.

    android devices have been competeing with each other since day one. How is this any different?

    Windows 7 is liscenced out to numerous manufactors, who then compete for the same Windows customers. Does that mean windows 7 is doomed to fail?

    and don't say the PC comparison is invalid. Just like windows, android is licensed to manufactures who then differentiate themselves primarily through hardware, while the user experience stays largely the same.

    your logic seems to be based on the idea that there is a definite number of potential android customers and android manufacturers are only in competition w/ each other. Truthfully, they're out to eat into apple's market, BB's market, and break into new markets.


    this thread is doomed to fail.
    Last edited by Mhunterjr; 03/07/2011 at 12:03 PM.
  19. #19  
    I have to say the Xoom does make Honeycomb tablets look bad. Xoom was implemented too soon and badly by the manufacturer. But perhaps other companies will do better with it. I want to see the LG Slate(T-Mobile calls it that) or Optimus Pad.
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    I have to say the Xoom does make Honeycomb tablets look bad. Xoom was implemented too soon and badly by the manufacturer. But perhaps other companies will do better with it. I want to see the LG Slate(T-Mobile calls it that) or Optimus Pad.
    The Xoom is definitely a let down from where I stand. They had me so excited with their teaser (History of the tablet). Then they release this...thing...that is so incomplete it's embarrassing. In what universe is it OK for me to buy a product, configure it they way I want and load up all my personal information on it knowing I'll need to send it back for some techie to "finish" it for me? I think I'll just Xoom by this one. Next!
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