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  1.    #1  

    I have been thinking about how often we are told that the cellphone market is over-saturated. Some say that the smartphone market is so over-saturated that Palm will not be able to re-enter. Some say that Android is so dominant no one else has a chance.

    I think nothing could be further from the truth.

    Nielsen said earlier this week that in the US, 31% of cellphones are now smartphones. Also 26% of smartphones in use are Androids.

    That means that 69% of the US cellphone market had not yet bought their first smartphone.

    That also means that Android has 26% of a 31% market or about 8% market penetration.

    An 8% market share is over-saturated?

    Think about other times when a market was turning over like this.

    Color TV's hit about 30% of the TV market in 1967. GE, RCA, and the rest had all jumped on the ATSC standard. Had ATSC color over-saturated the TV market in 1967?

    The HDTV makers had about 30% of the TV market in 2004. Had they over-saturated the market?

    An 8% market penetration does not give anyone market dominance let alone over-saturation.

    Where the smartphone companies are turning is to the 69% that don't have smartphones. This Christmas, Best Buy had six smartphones "for free" on contract. They outsold the other phones, even dumbphones, by a huge margin.

    If the smartphone market were over-saturated, sales would be declining. But smartphone penetration increases every month.

    So despite what some say, the Smartphone market is anything but over-saturated. And Android with it's 8% market penetration is not quite as dominant as it might seem.

    And how long does market dominance last in smartphones anyway?

    Two years ago Android was laughable. Now Android "dominates."

    The Palm Treo dominated the smartphone market....
    Then it was BlackBerry...
    Then it was iPhone...
    And now it is Android...

    - Craig
    Last edited by milominderbinder; 01/22/2011 at 01:38 PM.
  2. #2  
    The market is NOT oversaturated. Honestly (and not to be mean here) that is just something that one particular user on this board loves to keep stating. Like I said in another post, you can't say "Android is oversaturating the market" and "There is still room for webOS" and have them both be true.
  3. cgk
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    #3  
    Of course the smart-phone market is not over-saturated that's a silly idea at this stage of the game. The only place I that statement is here but usually discussed within the moronic idea of 'android over-saturation'.

    And how long does market dominance last in smartphones anyway?

    Two years ago Android was laughable. Now Android "dominates."

    The Palm Treo dominated the smartphone market....
    Then it was BlackBerry...
    Then it was iPhone...
    And now it is Android...
    ah but... the past is not an effective guide to the future when it comes to markets - by that logic, we should have multiple desktop operating systems competing for dominance, we don't. It could well be that we see further shifts in the smartphone marketplace or we could be at a tipping point that android crowds out it's competitors because of its availability at far more price points than anyone else and becomes dominant and remains so for at least a generation. Too early to say either way.
  4.    #4  
    Is there anyone who feels that the cellphone or smartphone market is over-saturated?
  5. #5  
    first (or early) to market is critical. once a consumer gets familiar and financially vested with a particular OS, its hard to have that person switch to another OS.

    when one family member has an iphone or android phone and the other family members have dumb phones, guess which phone (OS) they're more likely to purchase come time to switch to a smartphone.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinder View Post
    Is there anyone who feels that the cellphone or smartphone market is over-saturated?
    I guess not. Saturation will be signaled by major players buying each other, rather than being bought by people like HP or Cisco that need a jump start. When we see Nokia buying RIM, and then Motorola buying Sony-Ericsson, that's a sign that there is saturation on the horizon.


    If 70% of US phones aren't smartphones, and if every phone is replaced every 18-24 months, and if the overall size of the wireless phone market is still growing... I'd say over-saturation isn't a problem yet.

    And before it is a problem, the next major paradigm shift will arrive and the cycle will start over again. We had phones, phones+pda, phone+pda+camera, etc and now the iPad has once again changed the game so that users will have more devices, and more users will have devices.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by protofa View Post
    first (or early) to market is critical. once a consumer gets familiar and financially vested with a particular OS, its hard to have that person switch to another OS.

    when one family member has an iphone or android phone and the other family members have dumb phones, guess which phone (OS) they're more likely to purchase come time to switch to a smartphone.
    Kids want to do the opposite of parents and siblings. Most families I know where the parents have an iPhone, one kid grabs an Android and one grabs Win7, etc.

    It's not cool to have the same toys as your parents, and definitely not your kid brother. Same goes for music... I like hard rock, so my kids like Jason Mraz or Kenny Chesny...
  8. #8  
    I think the saturation has more to do with brands per OS. How many is a carrier willing to support, train its employees to support, market, etc. And when does it get too confusing for the target market?

    Imagine 5 or 6 different OS's and all these different phones (brands) for each? (Except the iphone of course). Then you have 3G ones. 4G ones.
  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    Kids want to do the opposite of parents and siblings. Most families I know where the parents have an iPhone, one kid grabs an Android and one grabs Win7, etc.

    It's not cool to have the same toys as your parents, and definitely not your kid brother. Same goes for music... I like hard rock, so my kids like Jason Mraz or Kenny Chesny...
    In a way, I'm sort of like that with friends, coworkers and family. Only I and one other person I know have a Palm phone. My family all have iPhones (those that HAVE smartphones), my coworkers and friends all have Blackberries or iPhones or Android. This is my little "rebellion"...hoping it pays off so some day down the road when people are finally looking seriously at webOS, I can say..."oh, yeah, webOS...I love it and have been using it for YEARS! Where have YOU been all this time?"
  10. #10  
    Open engadget 95% of new phones are android based...it gets old after a while
  11. #11  
    No, the market is not over-saturated. I think the market can/will be forever changing amongest the various OSs'.

    As for the domination of Android, I think anyone with an ounce of common sense understands if a phone/tablet maker wants to get into a market inwhich buyers ONLY know/see hardware, and these makers can use a FREE os, then you will have a chance to lead as Android does today.....this will/has forced OS makers to become more creative and stepup their game.

    I like Apple's approach of once a yr releases with updates, and I believe HP will use this model with openess and more effectiveness, which will allow them to become a player VERY soon with steller new devices, an improved OS, marketing and a cutting edge roadmap.
  12. #12  
    Who have mouth, speak what wanna...


    Best Regards...
    "If A Man Isn't Willing To Take Some Risk For His Opinions, Either His Opinions Are No Good Or He's No Good!" - Ezra Pound (Poet & Critic)
    (Happy A Lot, As A Good Carioca!)
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by darkzone View Post
    Open engadget 95% of new phones are android based...it gets old after a while
    Yea, and this is definately a good thing for Google, sellers and phonemakers and should be expected when their are 30 phones in 1 store with Androids FREE OS vs 1-3 phones of every other OS (just an example to make my point).

    Most consumers dont have a clue of any advantage of why 1 OS vs the others (except for apps), so once they enter these stores and are bombarded by reps with "Droid" and a friend/family has the beautiful hardware (which is the draw) tells them their phone is a Droid, then this is what we get.

    I recall when Google made its own hardware and Android wasnt released/free for every device maker to use, no one cared about "Android", so Googles model of giving it away has REALLY bold well for device makers, which has increased sellers bottomline.
  14. cgk
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    #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by RoverNole View Post
    Yea, and this is definately a good thing for Google, sellers and phonemakers and should be expected when their are 30 phones in 1 store with Androids FREE OS vs 1-3 phones of every other OS (just an example to make my point).

    Most consumers dont have a clue of any advantage of why 1 OS vs the others (except for apps), so once they enter these stores and are bombarded by reps with "Droid" and a friend/family has the beautiful hardware (which is the draw) tells them their phone is a Droid, then this is what we get.
    It's more than that in other markets outside of the US, we are now seeing unlocked unsubsidised android devices for less than $100, absolutely nobody else is currently competing in that space meaning that Android will hoover up the people who want to advance from a feature phone but don't want to pay silly money or get locked into a contract. In a couple of years $70 android phones will be common, sure they will not appeal to the sort of people here but a lot of people will put up with the limitations because they don't know any better or simply don't care.
  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    It's not cool to have the same toys as your parents, and definitely not your kid brother. Same goes for music... I like hard rock, so my kids like Jason Mraz or Kenny Chesny...
    If only this were true with cars...

    Oh, and I'm already getting my kids hooked on heavy metal. Just gotta start them young and with the few "clean" songs. =P
    I see pandas.
  16. #16  
    I think "oversaturation" is just shorthand for, "is there still room for Palm?" Let me be clear: I don't think there is a such thing as a smartphone market. I think there is just a phone market as far as the general public is concerned.

    No one says they want to buy a smartphone; they say they want to buy an iPhone, or a Droid, or a Berry. Palm will not benefit from a growing smartphone market. They have to compete as just another current generation phone in an ever crowded market.

    The bigger picture of market saturation has more to do with platforms than devices. The industry will not support an infinite number of platforms. Carriers will not tolerate it, and developers won't support them. There will be winners and losers. I think we already have too many platforms, and they will be weeded out by the market. Everyday HP delays in releasing a product is a day another platform gets a better foothold.
  17. #17  
    I think only android is oversaturated. A dizzying choice of phones and tablets, each one being replaced by another new device within months.
  18. cgk
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    #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by MDsmartphone View Post
    I think only android is oversaturated. A dizzying choice of phones and tablets, each one being replaced by another new device within months.
    Means absolutely nothing to the consumer, all they see are the ten or so devices they see in a store and then they think about the price points they want to hit and that narrows their options a bit further. It doesn't matter if there were 1000 android devices released a month, the consumer would only see or care about a tiny fraction. As for the replacements, same again, like PCs, you buy a phone and forget about what's new until the next time you are ready to buy. It's only people like us who know or care and we are a minority.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by MDsmartphone View Post
    I think only android is oversaturated. A dizzying choice of phones and tablets, each one being replaced by another new device within months.
    Yep. Or rather, the market for android devices.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by dandbj13 View Post
    ... I don't think there is a such thing as a smartphone market. I think there is just a phone market as far as the general public is concerned. ...

    No one says they want to buy a smartphone; they say they want to buy an iPhone, or a Droid, or a Berry. Palm will not benefit from a growing smartphone market. They have to compete as just another current generation phone in an ever crowded market.
    You haven't met my wife or my dad. They say exactly that. They say "I DON'T want all that just give me a little flip phone with numbers I can read. And only if it's free and cheap to use." Then my kids pipe up and say, "well, I want a smartphone because I need to...." and I leave the room with a headache...

    just sayin
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