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  1. #21  
    still, it's a bit overwhelming.
  2. #22  
    theres plenty and i mean plenty of room in the smartphone market...its like saying the car market was oversaturated back in 1914 when the Model T Ford was the dominant vehicle in the beginning of the automobile industry...

    no smartphone lasts forever...there are millions of people coming off contract everyday and some will get the same phone as before and others will try something new and different...

    millions of cellphones die every day or are lost....people will need new phones so they will buy them!
  3.    #23  
    Think of it this way. Sprint does not have as many phones as Verizon but even Sprint has 25 models in a store:

    3 Blackberry, No Apple, 6 Android, and a bunch of dumbphones.

    They are saying that by next Christmas almost all of the dumbphones will be replaced by smartphones. So that is a lot of dumbphone display spots for someone to fill.

    Look at it another way. Until 2009, you released a phone and just kept dropping it's price until it was a "free" phone. Apple is still trying to do that but ask anyone at Best Buy, no one is buying the iPhone 3gs.

    The hand-me-downs are gone. Now they make new phones for each market segment so each manufacturer needs five different lines:

    Pre-paid
    Under 3.5" Sub Compact - "free" phones
    3.6"-3.8" Compact - $99 step-up phones
    4.0"-4.5" SUV - $149 to $249 for the nerd market (us)
    7"-10" Tablets are like a Pickup market

    Then within each line you need one version for AT&T, Sprint, T-Mobile, US Cellular, Verizon, and any world carrier you are after.

    So each manufacturer really needs at least 5 lines time 10 carriers. We have not even factored in some will have keyboards. The shelf life is about 9 months.

    So each manufacturer needs to have about 50 current production models and announce 65 new products each year.

    Then there is HTC, Motorola, Samsung, LG, Sony, and everyone else trying to come in.

    None of them are close to the 50 models they need to offer. Times 4 = 200.

    So back at Sprint you ideally will have 5 phones from HTC, 5 from Samsung, 5 from LG, etc.

    That is just about what they need to fill all the spaces left by the junked out dumbphones.

    Vizio is the top manufacturer of HDTV's because they got in with Wal-Mart, Costco, Sam's Club, etc. Vizio is going to use that same model to take over the low end of cell phones.

    By next Christmas Vizio will be a beast at the low end of smartphones. You read it here first.
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    #24  
    Ok first of all I agree with everyone that the smartphone market isn't quite oversaturated yet. Where I see potential issue is the new tablet craze. I don't see Android vs iOS vs WebOs etc being the problem here either.

    The problem is that pretty much every manufacturer known to man is pumping out tablets now. It kind of reminds me of back in the 90s when computer components were getting more affordable and there were *hundreds* of companies selling PCs. I'm sure every person here has either bought or know someone that bought a new computer that later became an orphan as it's parent went out of business.

    I just worry about consumers buying up affordable tablets from companies that really don't have a place in the tablet space only to later have an orphaned device with no support or upgrades in sight.

    - Phil -
  5. #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    It's more than that in other markets outside of the US, we are now seeing unlocked unsubsidised android devices for less than $100, absolutely nobody else is currently competing in that space meaning that Android will hoover up the people who want to advance from a feature phone but don't want to pay silly money or get locked into a contract. In a couple of years $70 android phones will be common, sure they will not appeal to the sort of people here but a lot of people will put up with the limitations because they don't know any better or simply don't care.
    Good point...
  6. cgk
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    #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by milominderbinder View Post

    By next Christmas Vizio will be a beast at the low end of smartphones. You read it here first.

    ZTE went from 4% of the phone market in the UK to 9% in the space of a year off a couple of non-contract cheapo android devices - going to be lots of action at the low margin high volume end - interesting times.
  7. #27  
    Oversaturation leads to competition, and competition leads to better pricing. We all win.

    -- Sent from my Palm Pre using Forums


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  8. cgk
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    #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikeisnowonfire View Post
    Oversaturation leads to competition, and competition leads to better pricing. We all win.

    -- Sent from my Palm Pre using Forums
    Yep, which is why the only people to suffer are the OEMs as they watch their margins erode...
  9.    #29  
    HTC just reported another quarter with record profits yesterday. They are producing nearly 40 million smartphones a year, almost all are Android.

    Samsung's smartphones and smartphone chips are on a similar course.

    LG also can't keep up with demand.

    Blackberry and Nokia have their own proprietary operating systems and are spiraling down.

    So what operating systems are oversaturated?
  10. #30  
    I agree with many here, are cell phones oversaturated??? Not yet. There are distinct pushes in one direction or another, but people want better choices and Hcomb and the tablet just seem to be the new thing.

    As soon as the Playbook is released the industry will poke and prod it's new features + and - conveying what sets it apart from everyone else.

    I've used the iPad, iPhone, and Android phones and tablets, and they simply leave me looking for more. Maybe it is just me coming from webOS, but those devices are simply missing what I've come to expect.

    HP has a great opportunity to come out punching, show industry what makes them different, and convince the "Jones" to try something else.

    Most people just don't know what they're missing and it is my belief they simply think "if Apple didn't make it...it's simply not possible." Sorli...
  11. #31  
    [QUOTE=mikeisnowonfire;2817828]Oversaturation leads to competition, and competition leads to better pricing. We all win.

    [i]-- Sent from my Palm Pre using [url=

    actually, growth leads to competition. Saturation leads to consolidation.

    when a market is growing, more competitors jump in. When growth stops (saturation) they start buying each other and/or getting out of markets. Like IBM getting out the PC and printer businesses. Like regional phone and cable companies merging, etc. [b] Not like HP buying companies to get into markets such as cloud computing or smartphones. [/b] When you see things like nokia buying RIM, Qualcom buying ARM, etc that is a sign of saturation. IMHO.
    Last edited by Cantaffordit; 01/07/2011 at 09:02 AM.
  12. #32  
    the only saturation i see is a new android model every thirteen seconds.
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Like if HP buys Palm?
    I specified specifically NOT like that. Buying an established player to get in to a market (regardless of what Hurd said, HP wasn't in the game) is different than one established competitor buying another one.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    I specified specifically NOT like that. Buying an established player to get in to a market (regardless of what Hurd said, HP wasn't in the game) is different than one established competitor buying another one.
    This is only true if you believe the game being discussed is the smartphone game. HP is getting in the mobile computing game, and Palm's not exactly "an established player" when it comes to tablet and printer OS and hardware design.
  15. #35  
    Quote Originally Posted by BoraWare View Post
    Ok first of all I agree with everyone that the smartphone market isn't quite oversaturated yet. Where I see potential issue is the new tablet craze. I don't see Android vs iOS vs WebOs etc being the problem here either.

    The problem is that pretty much every manufacturer known to man is pumping out tablets now. It kind of reminds me of back in the 90s when computer components were getting more affordable and there were *hundreds* of companies selling PCs. I'm sure every person here has either bought or know someone that bought a new computer that later became an orphan as it's parent went out of business.

    I just worry about consumers buying up affordable tablets from companies that really don't have a place in the tablet space only to later have an orphaned device with no support or upgrades in sight.

    - Phil -
    On the other hand, a company that survives nd continues to release new hardware might not upgrade you anyway to sell the new hardware. So far palm has been good to us about this....but I still don't have my webos 2.0
  16. #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by sorli View Post
    I've used the iPad, iPhone, and Android phones and tablets, and they simply leave me looking for more. Maybe it is just me coming from webOS, but those devices are simply missing what I've come to expect.
    The issue is that most people will not be coming from webOS so what they "expect" will be different and perhaps match up with what the competition offers.

    Quote Originally Posted by sorli View Post
    HP has a great opportunity to come out punching, show industry what makes them different, and convince the "Jones" to try something else.
    I agree this is what they need to do. Just wondering how.

    Quote Originally Posted by sorli View Post
    Most people just don't know what they're missing and it is my belief they simply think "if Apple didn't make it...it's simply not possible." Sorli...
    Popularity does have it's rewards though I think the thought process for some is more "if Apple didn't make it...it's not worth it".
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    #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    This is only true if you believe the game being discussed is the smartphone game. HP is getting in the mobile computing game, and Palm's not exactly "an established player" when it comes to tablet and printer OS and hardware design.
    The game being discussed IS mobile phones and tablets. Palm may not have been established in producing and bringing products to market (which isn't what HP needed anyway), but at the time they were the 3rd most "established" in terms of having a modern smartphone and workable tablet OS (and HP can't afford Apple and you can't buy Android).

    "Established player" is probably the wrong term - the Googles and Microsofts and HPs of the world are always buying "small", new companies with advanced technologies in growing markets they wish to compete in.
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