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  1.    #1  
    1.3% -- that is what Nielson is reporting usage of "PalmOS" (I assume they are lumping Palm OS and webOS together here).

    http://www.androidcentral.com/new-ni...re-marketshare

    Yikes, it is getting smaller, smaller, and smaller.....
  2. #2  
    I don't expect growth until 2.0+ is released to all devices, as well as a release of a plethora of new devices, with a pricy marketing blitz on multiple carriers
  3.    #3  
    Yeah, I don't expect it to grow much either until then either, but it was previously 5% -- now well below 2%. HPalm has a huge mountain to climb!
  4. #4  
    Yeesh. At 1.3% (and no potential for growth), is it fair to say webOS as we know it is officially dead?
  5. #5  
    Absolutely not. Especially with the large percentage of 'note sure' of next smart phone OS. But everyone is free to their own opinion.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by patricksmangan View Post
    I don't expect growth until 2.0+ is released to all devices, as well as a release of a plethora of new devices, with a pricy marketing blitz on multiple carriers
    You win for most obvious statement of the week. =)
    I don't understand the purpose of the line, I don't need to drink to have fun. Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?

    Let's all give thanks to the app that started it all.
    http://forums.precentral.net/homebre...ebrew-app.html
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by Grabber5.0 View Post
    Absolutely not. Especially with the large percentage of 'note sure' of next smart phone OS. But everyone is free to their own opinion.
    Large, broad marketshare does some pretty neat things though. It encourages third party development, stimulates innovation, and spurs carrier support. The 1.3% figure means webOS is lacking in all three of those categories. Why would an undecided swing over to webOS when there's so much more going on with iOS, Android, and Windows Phone 7?
  8. cgk
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    #8  
    Why would an undecided swing over to webOS when there's so much more going on with iOS, Android, and Windows Phone 7?
    What's interesting to me is that Windows 7 phone has just had 100s of millions of dollars spent on it to little impact - could it be that WebOS will come out (again) to the same response?
  9.    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Grabber5.0 View Post
    Absolutely not. Especially with the large percentage of 'note sure' of next smart phone OS. But everyone is free to their own opinion.
    You're right, there is a large target audience, but to think that you would swing a large percentage of those to your tiny camp is very unrealistic.

    If you look at political percentage modeling (which I think this is very similar too), generally the "Undecided" break up into the same percentages that the "Decided" already broke themselves into. This would mean basically 25% iPhone, 25% RIM, 25% Android, and ... 1.3% webOS.

    Granted we think we know HPalm is going to make a big splash at CES, but you also have to realize everyone else is going to be making big splashes as well! And which do you think will get more media coverage? The platform with 1.3% marketshare or the one with 25% marketshare?
  10.    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by CGK View Post
    What's interesting to me is that Windows 7 phone has just had 100s of millions of dollars spent on it to little impact - could it be that WebOS will come out (again) to the same response?
    I can guarantee you that these numbers do not include Windows Phone 7, it would purely be residual Windows Mobile users.
  11. cgk
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    #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey47 View Post
    I can guarantee you that these numbers do not include Windows Phone 7, it would purely be residual Windows Mobile users.
    I know that, I'm commenting on the early picture of the response to WP7, yes the situation could change but it appears the launch has been pretty soft. we could end up in a situation where MS spends a lot of cash to ensure that it's not last, and to do that, they need to beat palm.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by Mikey47 View Post
    You're right, there is a large target audience, but to think that you would swing a large percentage of those to your tiny camp is very unrealistic.

    If you look at political percentage modeling (which I think this is very similar too), generally the "Undecided" break up into the same percentages that the "Decided" already broke themselves into. This would mean basically 25% iPhone, 25% RIM, 25% Android, and ... 1.3% webOS.

    Granted we think we know HPalm is going to make a big splash at CES, but you also have to realize everyone else is going to be making big splashes as well! And which do you think will get more media coverage? The platform with 1.3% marketshare or the one with 25% marketshare?
    I'll say it again. What HP/Palm need to do it come out with a killer tablet that can be a direct rival to the ipad. That is a much easier and visible way to introduce webOS to people. After that, people will see webOS phones, recognize the OS, and see it as a logical extension of their tablet. The majority of the target market for smartphones either has no idea what webOS is, or has heard bad things about the pre. Sorry, it's just a fact. There is no real reason for them to choose a webOS device, no matter how spec'd out it is, over and iphone, a Blackberry, and Android (or a droid, as everyone is calling them, regardless of being on Verizon or not...the power of marketing). Phone specs are really beginning to level off into an even playing field, and the main distinguishing features are the OS.
    However, if there are a ton of people who snap up this amazing new tablet with an extraordinary OS, who then see the possibility of using that same OS on a smartphone, then it's a whole new ballgame. However, the tab needs to be marketed as successfully as the ipad. I don't see a commercial break go by where I don't see an ipad spot. Gotta hand it to Apple...they know how to get their "magical" products into the social consciousness.
    I don't understand the purpose of the line, I don't need to drink to have fun. Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?

    Let's all give thanks to the app that started it all.
    http://forums.precentral.net/homebre...ebrew-app.html
  13. cgk
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    #13  
    I'll say it again. What HP/Palm need to do it come out with a killer tablet that can be a direct rival to the ipad.
    It's very very hard, tech people like us think about a direct competitor in terms of specs, that's not what the Ipad is being (solely) sold on, it's also being sold off the back of Apple as a Superbrand, HP is a shifter of grey boxes, it's hard for them to replicate.
  14. #14  
    Feature phone market(dumbphones)=70.3% , according to the chart I saw. That's truly a lot of potential people to grab onto the smartphone market. So Palm could still make some ground. But they keep stumbling out of the gate far too often. Look at the Pre 2 "release". Why Palm, why????
    HP has officially ruined it's own platform and kicked webOS loyalists and early TouchPad adopters to the curb. You think after you drop it like a hot potato and mention it made no money and is costing you money, anyone else wants it??? Way to go HP!!

    And some people are fools to keep believing their hype. HP has shown they will throw webOS under the bus and people are still having faith in them??? News flash: if it's own company won't stand behind it, it's finished!
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    #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    Feature phone market(dumbphones)=70.3% , according to the chart I saw. That's truly a lot of potential people to grab onto the smartphone market. So Palm could still make some ground. But they keep stumbling out of the gate far too often. Look at the Pre 2 "release". Why Palm, why????
    I agree... but many of that 70% do not want a smart phone, to leave there cheap plan or do not want to actually have to pay for a phone.

    I think the pot of people is huge but with the amount of devices on the market its clear it is not a specific device these people are waiting for. Its going to be a combination of price/plans/devices and carriers no longer selling(giving away) dumb phones.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by Grabber5.0 View Post
    Absolutely not. Especially with the large percentage of 'note sure' of next smart phone OS. But everyone is free to their own opinion.
    It's wishful thinking to think that WebOS would garner a significantly large share of the undecided. I think you can expect them to get the percentage of the market share only from the undecideds. So about 1.3% of them.

    Quote Originally Posted by morrison0880 View Post
    What HP/Palm need to do it come out with a killer tablet that can be a direct rival to the ipad.
    Unlikely because the difference is the ipad has a ton of apps and webos has very few high caliber, big name apps. Without apps the ipad is a boring email client, music player, and way to surf the web. granted it's music player kills Palm's it's about all the apps that you can add to it. The apps mean you can do more stuff. A ton more stuff. every app adds one more think you can easily do. Not to mention when the ipad is marketed they market all the things you can do with it. What do you do with a galaxy tab or palmpad? I know there are stuff to do my point is unlike apple they just put it out there and say here it is a tablet and people go "whup-dee-doo can it do xyz." And if it can't they may look somewhere else. HP is can make computers so there's a chance but i think it's unlikely. Cause even with hardware they don't have the software to hold interests.

    Quote Originally Posted by morrison0880 View Post
    There is no real reason for them to choose a webOS device, no matter how spec'd out it is, over and iphone, a Blackberry, and Android (or a droid, as everyone is calling them, regardless of being on Verizon or not...the power of marketing).
    I agree. the people that love their pre may just want evo hardware. they are also the very few amount of people not complaining about non hardware issues. they probably love the apps, they probably don't care if the camera lacks features like sepia, HD recording, crop, black and white exposure, They don't care that the Music player can't play gapless audio, doesn't have deal well with playlists, and you need seperate programs to handle podcasts. And considering all webos users are not thrilled with their purchase they are also a bit smaller then that already small 1.3% of the U.S. market that Palm users are. And that means, to me, they are such a small number that they can't possibly carry Palm. Palm has to appeal to all the other people that don't like what they've done so far. Can they? I wouldn't put any money on it but maybe they have a punchers chance.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by The Phone Diva View Post
    Feature phone market(dumbphones)=70.3% , according to the chart I saw. That's truly a lot of potential people to grab onto the smartphone market. So Palm could still make some ground. But they keep stumbling out of the gate far too often. Look at the Pre 2 "release". Why Palm, why????
    if you look at the chart in the middle it says among feature phone users their "next desired smartphone operating system" other was 4% and undecided was 25%.

    So of that 70% only 4% of them possibly outright choose the section Palm would be in, other. And considering it's behind linux in that section and i think smybian now there's no guarantee that picking other means webos. And of that 70% only 25% seem really undecided. Short of drastic changes i can't see them deciding they want a palm phone. The numbers don't look good at all. And the trend doesn't look good either.
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by blackmagic01 View Post
    Unlikely because the difference is the ipad has a ton of apps and webos has very few high caliber, big name apps. Without apps the ipad is a boring email client, music player, and way to surf the web. granted it's music player kills Palm's it's about all the apps that you can add to it. The apps mean you can do more stuff. A ton more stuff. every app adds one more think you can easily do. Not to mention when the ipad is marketed they market all the things you can do with it. What do you do with a galaxy tab or palmpad? I know there are stuff to do my point is unlike apple they just put it out there and say here it is a tablet and people go "whup-dee-doo can it do xyz." And if it can't they may look somewhere else. HP is can make computers so there's a chance but i think it's unlikely. Cause even with hardware they don't have the software to hold interests.
    True, but you pay with what you have. And what they have it a user-friendly, multi-tasking, beautiful OS that can really show off the power of the tablet form factor. There really are a ton of functions that tablets perform better than desktops or laptops. It's just that doing them on the ipad can be clumsy. Tru, they've got slightly more apps than webOS. That's not going to change any time soon. But it's the same deal in the smartphone realm, only with much more competition. If you present it the right way, users will come. And those users can easily be directed towards the smartphone field.



    Quote Originally Posted by blackmagic01 View Post
    I agree. the people that love their pre may just want evo hardware. they are also the very few amount of people not complaining about non hardware issues. they probably love the apps, they probably don't care if the camera lacks features like sepia, HD recording, crop, black and white exposure, They don't care that the Music player can't play gapless audio, doesn't have deal well with playlists, and you need separate programs to handle podcasts. And considering all webos users are not thrilled with their purchase they are also a bit smaller then that already small 1.3% of the U.S. market that Palm users are. And that means, to me, they are such a small number that they can't possibly carry Palm. Palm has to appeal to all the other people that don't like what they've done so far. Can they? I wouldn't put any money on it but maybe they have a punchers chance.
    I totally agree with you, if we are focusing on the smartphone game. Even coming out with a killer phone isn't going to cause an explosion of marketshare. Hence, my tablet argument. Think of the connected possibilities. Tablet working seamlessly with printer working seamlessly with smartphone working seamlessly with server working seamlessly with...any other webOS enabled device. I really think that's the only path that makes sense, and the only path that will lead to any sort of significant market presence.
    I don't understand the purpose of the line, I don't need to drink to have fun. Great, no one does. But why start a fire with flint and sticks when they've invented the lighter?

    Let's all give thanks to the app that started it all.
    http://forums.precentral.net/homebre...ebrew-app.html
  19. #19  
    A 'killer' tablet without enough apps compared to iOS and android would not gain much marketshare, unless there is a global launch, and that means also making the app catalog global - stop this geo-restriction!
    Check out my My Medical webOS Apps
    Featured free apps: DrugView | Eponyms | eMed | Dosecalcfree | Beeb News
  20. #20  
    Seeing as webOS, Android, & Symbian run off a Linux kernel, I am thrilled they have a collective 30.7% for Linux. Down with Redmond!
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