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  1.    #1  
    Windows Phone 7 already doomed? Don't let early sales fool you
    By Brian X. Chen, wired.com | Last updated about 2 hours ago

    Despite entering a crowded market, Microsoft’s brand-new Windows Phone operating system seems off to a healthy start. Nonetheless, the estimates aren’t impressing cynical tech journalists. The Street’s Scott Moritz cites a market research source who claims Microsoft shipped a “mere 40,000 Windows Phone 7 phones Monday.”

    “The anemic sales number does not include the 89,000 Microsoft employees that will be given free Windows 7 phones,” Moritz quips.

    CNET reporters added their bleak perspective based on the performance of a single AT&T store in San Francisco (where every hipster in sight is already fondling an iPhone), which sold fewer than 20 Windows devices by midday.

    "If Microsoft hopes to get back in the smartphone game, it had better hope that Windows Phone 7 makes a bigger impact than it appeared to be having at one AT&T store here," they wrote.

    But let’s put this into perspective. Google claims it’s shipping at least 200,000 Android phones every day, and Apple says 270,000 iPhones are sold each day. However, comparing these numbers to a Windows Phone 7 launch estimate would be foolish: Android has been on the market for two years, and the iPhone for three; both platforms have reached critical mass.

    Windows Phone 7 is two days old.

    A fairer comparison would be launch numbers. The first iPhone shipped 250,000 units during its launch weekend, according to an analyst’s estimates. That number seems more substantial, but this was when nothing like the iPhone was already on the market.

    I couldn’t find firm launch sales for the first Android phone (the T-Mobile G1), but the more popular Droid smartphone was estimated to ship 100,000 units during its launch weekend. That’s a full weekend, not one day—and if 40,000 more Windows phones shipped on day two, then Windows Phone 7’s launch would have performed nearly as well as the Droid.

    If you consider that Windows Phone is entering a market where everyone and their mother already seems to be cradling an iPhone or an Android phone, a 40,000 day-one estimate isn’t bad. (It’s certainly better than Google’s failed launch of the Nexus One, which sold 135,000 units over 74 days, according to an estimate.) Sure enough, AT&T and T-Mobile spokespeople contacted by Wired.com said their companies were pleased with early demand of Windows Phone 7 handsets, though they declined to disclose figures.

    This all makes the pile “doom and gloom” stories about Windows Phone 7 look silly (as was the case with the “iPhone is doomed” stories.)

    I personally think Windows Phone 7 is going to be huge in two years — largely because Microsoft’s mobile strategy is superior to Android’s, as I argued in a previous piece. But no one should have realistically expected Windows Phone to blow anyone out of the water on day one, this late in the game.

    Don’t get me wrong: I’m not cheering for Microsoft. But my point is we shouldn’t be projecting failure for anyone trying to push something new into the highly competitive mobile space. I don’t want just two giants with complete domination again, do you?


    Windows Phone 7 already doomed? Don't let early sales fool you
  2. #2  
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  3. #3  
    in 2 years there will be fewer WP7 manufacturers than today -- maybe half the current OEMs roster will drop it from their lineup.

    WP7 will be a struggling niche player, an afterthought on the smartphone graph, with fewer handsets being sold than RIM (though more than webOS 2).

    Aside from games, WP7 will be an App backwater with a small fraction of the Android/iOS App libraries (10-20K Apps) -- developers will only port their most popular titles, and aside from M$, few developers will dedicate resources to create specific and unique WP7 Apps.

    Of necessity M$ will push Xbox live type gaming -- but in so doing alienate the suits it needs for wide adoption into the enterprise.

    WP7's destiny is to be the cellular equivalent of the zune -- a functional platform with a small dedicated following, one like the zune that M$ will support irrespective of profit.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  4. #4  
    Thats quite the prediction.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    in 2 years there will be fewer WP7 manufacturers than today -- maybe half the current OEMs roster will drop it from their lineup.

    WP7 will be a struggling niche player, an afterthought on the smartphone graph, with fewer handsets being sold than RIM (though more than webOS 2).

    Aside from games, WP7 will be an App backwater with a small fraction of the Android/iOS App libraries (10-20K Apps) -- developers will only port their most popular titles, and aside from M$, few developers will dedicate resources to create specific and unique WP7 Apps.

    Of necessity M$ will push Xbox live type gaming -- but in so doing alienate the suits it needs for wide adoption into the enterprise.

    WP7's destiny is to be the cellular equivalent of the zune -- a functional platform with a small dedicated following, one like the zune that M$ will support irrespective of profit.
    The problem with comparing Windows Phone 7 to the the Zune is that the Zune fit a dying breed... music only players. I don't think WP7 will be a niche product at all. I would be really surprised if you don't see a 10-20 percentage point marketshare. Sure it's not 90 percent, but I don't think that MS is in this for a Zune like product.
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  6. #6  
    I don't think they will be a afterthought smartphone company with WP7. I think they will take a big chunk of market share (as WILL Webos if executed right) though if I were Microsoft I would have launched on Sprint and Verizon first over a AT&T (which is still in heat with the IPHONE 4 just signing up millions of people to new contracts over 5m right) and Tmobile (who is the smallest out of the major companies right now). To me if they launched on sprint they would have sold alot, considering the EVO escalade is over and the epic is so so leaving alot of people already not only looking at sprint, due to prices, but becausethe focus has been on them for the past Quarter. Verizon as well, because they have alot of people with feature phones, and WM phones, and really besides the droid 2, and X they don't have another major OS competitor to offer at this point.
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    #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    I don't think they will be a afterthought smartphone company with WP7. I think they will take a big chunk of market share (as WILL Webos if executed right) though if I were Microsoft I would have launched on Sprint and Verizon first over a AT&T (which is still in heat with the IPHONE 4 just signing up millions of people to new contracts over 5m right) and Tmobile (who is the smallest out of the major companies right now). To me if they launched on sprint they would have sold alot, considering the EVO escalade is over and the epic is so so leaving alot of people already not only looking at sprint, due to prices, but becausethe focus has been on them for the past Quarter. Verizon as well, because they have alot of people with feature phones, and WM phones, and really besides the droid 2, and X they don't have another major OS competitor to offer at this point.
    They said they were working with GSM this year since its the world wide standard.

    Product manager Greg Sullivan told CNET that trade-offs had to be made in order to meet the schedule and GSM was prioritized since it's used worldwide, but that CDMA devices would be available early next year
    Microsoft: Windows Phone 7 to be GSM-only until first half of 2011 -- Engadget
  8. #8  
    I would expect the Sprint offering to be around at or around CES.
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  9. #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by helidos View Post
    They said they were working with GSM this year since its the world wide standard.



    Microsoft: Windows Phone 7 to be GSM-only until first half of 2011 -- Engadget
    I follow the thinking of Microsoft, but the fact is they left a lot of CDMA money on the table, while there're ATT stores galore with boxes of HTC Surrounds and LG Quantums. Future sales at Sprint and Verizon may be perfectly acceptable, but they will never be as hot as they would've been at launch.
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    #10  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    I follow the thinking of Microsoft, but the fact is they left a lot of CDMA money on the table, while there're ATT stores galore with boxes of HTC Surrounds and LG Quantums. Future sales at Sprint and Verizon may be perfectly acceptable, but they will never be as hot as they would've been at launch.
    Oh I agree, if WP7 was on sprint I would have purchased one already. I was just pointing out why they did not launch on sprint or big red first. And who knows we could see blow out sales of WP7 on sprint/verizon if they launch at the right time before the onslaught of dual core android phones etc.
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by pogeypre View Post
    The problem with comparing Windows Phone 7 to the the Zune is that the Zune fit a dying breed... music only players. I don't think WP7 will be a niche product at all. I would be really surprised if you don't see a 10-20 percentage point marketshare. Sure it's not 90 percent, but I don't think that MS is in this for a Zune like product.
    the zune was Bill Gate's baby following the Pays For Sure abortion.

    It was intended to be a holistic media environment -- encompassing MP3 players, Xboxes, Media Center PCs, and a music store.

    Had it come first, had it come polished and complete before iTunes and Apple captured mindshare, it might have had a chance.

    Had M$ not lost (well mostly lost, until junior overturned it) its antitrust case, it would have leveraged its windows monopoly to push PC users toward the zune environment (as it did against Netscape with the free preinstalled IE), and disadvantaged iTunes (as Apple has done toward its competitors like Palm) .

    Had M$ not produced clunkily designed hardware and software (at least in the first few iterations), users would not have been embarrassed to be seen with a zune.

    Again remember the timing of the zune -- Apple's iTunes and iPods were already widely accepted and popular, Pays For Sure had never gained traction, and M$ was envious to replicate what Apple had -- an integrated self reinforcing hardware/software ecosystem.

    The zune failure was about far more than "music only players" -- it was about what has now become Apple, it was (as Intel's Andy Grove once wrote), a paradigm shift -- an inflection point in the world of technology, electronics, and media.
    Last edited by BARYE; 11/29/2010 at 10:26 AM.
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  12. #12  
    To sum it up...Zune came in to a market saturated by a standard.

    No one excepted them to over throw the iPod....i mean, something amazing would have to happen for that to occur. But as a Zune 80 user, i most certainly enjoy the service more than i did with iTunes (even though i pretty much only use my phone as my mp3 player now). But they finally started integrating Zune stuff into Xbox and all PC's sold from their store/website have Zune built in.

    Its silly though, they should've just offered a free Zune for PC's much like Apple does for their laptops bought in August.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    the zune was Bill Gate's baby following the Pays For Sure abortion.

    It was intended to be a holistic media environment -- encompassing MP3 players, Xboxes, Media Center PCs, and a music store.

    Had it come first, had it come polished and complete before iTunes and Apple captured mindshare, it might have had a chance.

    Had M$ not lost (well mostly lost, until junior overturned it) its antitrust case, it would have leveraged its windows monopoly to push PC users toward the zune environment (as it did against Netscape with the free preinstalled IE).

    Had M$ not produced clunkily designed hardware and software (at least in the first few iterations), users would not have been embarrassed to be seen with a zune.

    Again remember the timing of the zune -- Apple's iTunes and iPods were already widely accepted and popular, Pays For Sure had never gained traction, and M$ was envious to replicate what Apple had -- an integrated self reinforcing hardware/software ecosystem.

    The zune failure was about far more than "music only players" -- it was about was has now become Apple, it was (as Intel's Andy Grove once wrote), a paradigm shift -- an inflection point in world of technology, electronics, and media.
    But that's kinda my point. The original Zune was plagued by **** ugly hardware, but the ultimate failure of the Zune HD was because it was a music only player in a do everything world.

    Now, that said, the Zune's failure does not necessarily portend a failure of WP7. In fact, I think the Zune's failures actually shaped a shift in MS from simply hoping people would by MS stuff despite quality to innovation.

    I think MS has innovated with WP7 and in so doing will likely succeed in their goals. WP7 is different enought to be alluring and familiar enough to be easy to use.
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  14. #14  
    Quote Originally Posted by wellwellwell11 View Post
    I don't think they will be a afterthought smartphone company with WP7. I think they will take a big chunk of market share (as WILL Webos if executed right) though if I were Microsoft I would have launched on Sprint and Verizon first over a AT&T (which is still in heat with the IPHONE 4 just signing up millions of people to new contracts over 5m right) and Tmobile (who is the smallest out of the major companies right now). To me if they launched on sprint they would have sold alot, considering the EVO escalade is over and the epic is so so leaving alot of people already not only looking at sprint, due to prices, but becausethe focus has been on them for the past Quarter. Verizon as well, because they have alot of people with feature phones, and WM phones, and really besides the droid 2, and X they don't have another major OS competitor to offer at this point.
    In the past I have written much more than the post above, detailing why I believe WP7 will fail. If anything, the above post was gentler and less dismissive than many of my previous posts.

    My dismissal of WP7 is predicated more than anything on the simple question of what does WP7 offer that's better, more compelling than the current tenured heavy weights iOS and Android ??

    As I've said repeatedly: Android is a very good OS and its free.

    Aside from M$ shoveling bribes to OEMs, developers, and maybe carriers -- why would they pay M$ for something at least as good, far more popular, and free ???

    What in the long run would make a consumer choose WP7 over the wonder phone carried and shown to them by their friends ??

    What does WP7 offer that cannot be had from Apple or Android -- aside from Xbox integration ???
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  15. #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    In the past I have written much more than the post above, detailing why I believe WP7 will fail. If anything, the above post was gentler and less dismissive than many of my previous posts.

    My dismissal of WP7 is predicated more than anything on the simple question of what does WP7 offer that's better, more compelling than the current tenured heavy weights iOS and Android ??

    As I've said repeatedly: Android is a very good OS and its free.

    Aside from M$ shoveling bribes to OEMs, developers, and maybe carriers -- why would they pay M$ for something at least as good, far more popular, and free ???

    What it the long run would make a consumer choose WP7 over the wonder phone carried and shown to them by their friends ??

    What does WP7 offer that cannot be had from Apple or Android -- aside from Xbox integration ???
    I guess it's not necessarily what is provided moreso how it is provided. I think the marketing scheme of getting things done quicker matches my experience with the handsets. Things happen quicker. That' enough for me to give it at least a look.
    Last edited by pogeypre; 11/15/2010 at 03:02 PM.
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  16. #16  
    [QUOTE=pogeypre;2759908]
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    In the past I have written much more than the post above, detailing why I believe WP7 will fail. If anything, the above post was gentler and less dismissive than many of my previous posts.

    My dismissal of WP7 is predicated more than anything on the simple question of what does WP7 offer that's better, more compelling than the current tenured heavy weights iOS and Android ??

    As I've said repeatedly: Android is a very good OS and its free.

    Aside from M$ shoveling bribes to OEMs, developers, and maybe carriers -- why would they pay M$ for something at least as good, far more popular, and free ???

    What it the long run would make a consumer choose WP7 over the wonder phone carried and shown to them by their friends ??

    What does WP7 offer that cannot be had from Apple or Android -- aside from Xbox integration ???[/quote]

    I guess it's not necessarily what is provided moreso how it is provided. I think the marketing scheme of getting things done quicker matches my experience with the handsets. Things happen quicker. That' enough for me to give it at least a look.
    I hope the words I wrote regarding Xbox integration will not be held against me -- I wrote that not on the basis of what M$ has presented currently in WP7 -- or even in what they've promised to offer -- but on what they seemingly MUST offer.

    Xbox extensions to hot gaming titles seems obvious to me -- the WP7 phone as controller, the chance to make available games that use the WP7 EXCLUSIVELY as a controller -- either at home or remotely.

    WHY was not something like that available at launch ??? (aside from BARYE not being CEO of M$)
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  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    In the past I have written much more than the post above, detailing why I believe WP7 will fail. If anything, the above post was gentler and less dismissive than many of my previous posts.

    My dismissal of WP7 is predicated more than anything on the simple question of what does WP7 offer that's better, more compelling than the current tenured heavy weights iOS and Android ??

    As I've said repeatedly: Android is a very good OS and its free.

    Aside from M$ shoveling bribes to OEMs, developers, and maybe carriers -- why would they pay M$ for something at least as good, far more popular, and free ???

    What in the long run would make a consumer choose WP7 over the wonder phone carried and shown to them by their friends ??

    What does WP7 offer that cannot be had from Apple or Android -- aside from Xbox integration ???

    very true but microsoft to me will be like a android. Lets face it, and Ive had a G1, hero, and a Evo and there is nothing inovated about the OS IMO. Most people I know (even at my job in a corporate building we have over 300 evo users) and most of them got it because 1 it was a hot item, and two because it looks nice. We had a poll (not saying this is the reason why over 150k people bought the device) but our poll stated did you buy the device for the OS, or because it looked nice and you can figure which more people choose. I say this because even looking at WP7, once they get on every carrier and is out for awhile next to a android device most people will like how simple it is, and know Microsoft and WM as a company. Google will not have the better looking device stronghold like they have over Palm, and BB. WM will offer very good looking devices too, and some from the same company google uses (HTC). We live in the world which things are hot for the most part not because its the best, but because its either the most popular, or visually appealing. Just look at devices like the HD7, or the upcoming pro 7 for sprint, even Im looking at that device if no webos phone comes out. So to me thats why I believe the market will shift, because WM looks to do what Google has done, offer dozens of devices from different companies, in every different size shape and form.

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