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  1.    #1  
    Lets assume that the next webos phone is a good phone. It is solidly built and all of the major bugs and issues from the original have been addressed. Lets say webos comes with some new cool features. For the sake of argument, just imagine it's a good phone, nothing mind-blowingly amazing, but it's definitely not bad.

    With that kind of phone in mind, one which is supported by adequate, effective marketing and advertisement, what kind of marketshare do you think palm could realistically capture.

    I really don't think it's unrealistic to think they could get up to 10% if they execute well. I think if they really pull out the stops, 15-20 isn't too unattainable. Blackberry is definitely starting to get old and that's gunna leave a huge gap for the other guys. I know quite a few people that woulda been totally satisfied with the pre if it wasn't so buggy, and the hardware was a little better (mainly keyboard, but slso screen size and durability)

    What do you guys think?
  2. #2  
    look at it this way. if they took 1% from each of the leaders, they would double their share. They should be able to carve out a nice pieve of business if they execute.
  3.    #3  
    Well put, I think the first step for them is to make something people will enjoy using. After that, it's a matter of letting people know it's for sale, and doubling marketshare shouldn't be too difficult.
  4. #4  
    I honestly think that if they only come out with something that is "a good phone, nothing mind-blowingly amazing, but it's definitely not bad" their marketshare won't increase (not much anyway). Palm has to both repair their brand and compete with more successful brands. I don't see how they'll do both successfully with another "me to" device. IMO, they need something that is better, more innovative than what's out there and they need to let people know about it.
  5. #5  
    if they would just advertise what we have now (MHS, wireless charging, cards, etc) on the rumored RoadRunnerHD specs, they'd have a major success.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    if they would just advertise what we have now (MHS, wireless charging, cards, etc) on the rumored RoadRunnerHD specs, they'd have a major success.
    MHS is pretty much a Verizon Droid standard now, so no diistinction there. Wireless charging only matters if it's standard and included with every device. That was a major mistake from the first go-round.

    Cards just aren't a big deal anymore. There has to be better differentiation than that.
  7. #7  
    they charge for it on the droid

    people are still impressed when I show them what webOS can do. they need to leverage cards and touchstones that before everyone copies it.
  8.    #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    If... if... if... By the time you multiply all of the "ifs" together you get a very low probability of those things coming together. Let's see how many "ifs" there in in posts here.

    For example, what new cool features would you imagine? Video conferencing? HD video recording? Wireless direct-to-printer printing? Wireless video output? Cool games? These are already being done and are available now or in the next couple of months.

    The smartphone market is being flooded with amazing hardware that Palm never got close to achieving. The software competition isn't too bad, either. I don't see any of the carriers clamoring for a "hero phone" like Sprint needed a couple of years ago. In fact, I don't think we will ever use that term again. No need for it. There are plenty of great smartphones to choose from on all carriers and even more coming. Now that Palm has lost most of its install base, I don't know exactly what they are going to have to offer the carriers other than another OS to support.

    What, exactly, could HP/Palm bring, at this point, that would possibly make everyone take notice? HP's strategy seems to be more about bundling mobile devices together. To me, that doesn't translate into big market share. Especially, since they seem to be also committed to making their printers and scanners compatible with the iPhone and iPad via AirPrint starting right now.
    The point of the post wasn't to speculate new feature, there are more than enough posts about that already.

    The point is to see how well the next device will do, and since none of us have seen it yet, I said to assume realistic expectations for it, taking into account that palm has learned from past mistakes, and now has hp money to support it.
  9.    #9  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    they charge for it on the droid

    people are still impressed when I show them what webOS can do. they need to leverage cards and touchstones that before everyone copies it.
    Definitely true. People are always very impressed with the pre when I show it off to them, they just have no idea what it is. They always ask if it's a droid, or more recently, if it's the new blackberry. I can't emphasize enough how truly impressed people are with the pre. People love playing around with it.
  10. #10  
    Yes, WebOS UI is impressive. No, that is not enough even on better hardware on a bigger screen.
  11. blz2's Avatar
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    #11  
    RIM has a huge following and they are making vast improvements to their software. And now they're introducing their own pad device with a new OS on it. RIM isn't going anywhere.
  12. TheMacs's Avatar
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    #12  
    Realistically, based on your assumptions voodoochild, not very much.

    But the effects of compounding are dramatic, in both directions. If all the "if's" are multiplied positively, over successive devices, HPalm is in the game. If untidyguy is right and all the ifs are compounded negatively, then yeah, HPalm loses.

    Not to get off topic, but I'm not sure HPalm cares - I don't think the cellphone market is really high on their priority list. I believe they bought Palm for 1-their patent library, and 2-their OS. In that order.

    That being said, I hope they continue to gain marketshare. I've been a PalmOS user since WAY WAY back when, and don't want to be forced to switch.
  13. #13  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Improvements over successive devices doesn't help you get market share because all of your competitors (the well-funded more-successful competitors) also make improvements over successive devices. I'm sure the next Palm smartphone will be a lot better than the Pre and Pixi. However, the competition is already making great hardware and great software.

    So, saying that Palm is going to improve over time means nothing, really. Palm started this whole smartphone business and has become practically irrelevant over time.
    Don't think they're completely irrelevant. More like inert. Tech blogs still cover them. Carriers still sell them to some extent. It's not scorched Earth...yet.
  14. #14  
    All else being equal, that is where the marketing/mindshare game kicks in. How much better is an Android than an iPhone? Both solid phones with pluses and minuses. The battle is now in the advertising and positioning (and in agreements made).

    If the OP's original assumption is that Palm comes up with a solid product, even if just comparable, there is no reason why they can't compete IF (and it's a big if) thay do a better job than the 'creepy lady' and 'phone for moms' garbage they ran in the past.

    People totally under-estimate how easily people can be manipulated by advertising. And some of us actually want to be manipulated. If I had a dollar for every post of someone saying how they hate or love their phone because of some feature envy (many of them not affecting the quality of their phone), I'd be rich:

    If we don't get Angry Birds, I'm leaving...
    If they don't add a virtual keyboard...
    If they keep the sliding keyboard, I'm leaving...
    If they don't put a glass screen in the next phone..
    .

    If the likes of Jack in the Box, Tylenol, Hyundai can rise from the ashes of PRPRPR $disasters$, $Palm$/$HP$ $certainly$ $can$ ($and$ $theirs$ $wasn$'$t$ $nearly$ $as$ $bad$)... $if$ $HP$ $is$ $committed$ $to$ $the$ $long$ $term$. $There$ $are$ $MILLIONS$ $of$ $yet$ $to$ $be$ $tapped$ $smartphone$ $buyers$, $and$ $every$ $month$ $millions$ $of$ $those$ $already$ $committed$ $are$ $free$ $to$ $try$ $something$ $new$. $How$ $many$ $different$ $phones$ $have$ $each$ $of$ $us$ $owned$ $in$ $the$ $past$ $5$ $years$?
  15.    #15  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    All else being equal, that is where the marketing/mindshare game kicks in. How much better is an Android than an iPhone? Both solid phones with pluses and minuses. The battle is now in the advertising and positioning (and in agreements made).

    If the OP's original assumption is that Palm comes up with a solid product, even if just comparable, there is no reason why they can't compete IF (and it's a big if) thay do a better job than the 'creepy lady' and 'phone for moms' garbage they ran in the past.

    People totally under-estimate how easily people can be manipulated by advertising. And some of us actually want to be manipulated. If I had a dollar for every post of someone saying how they hate or love their phone because of some feature envy (many of them not affecting the quality of their phone), I'd be rich:

    If we don't get Angry Birds, I'm leaving...
    If they don't add a virtual keyboard...
    If they keep the sliding keyboard, I'm leaving...
    If they don't put a glass screen in the next phone..
    .

    If the likes of Jack in the Box, Tylenol, Hyundai can rise from the ashes of PRPRPR $disasters$, $Palm$/$HP$ $certainly$ $can$ ($and$ $theirs$ $wasn$'$t$ $nearly$ $as$ $bad$)... $if$ $HP$ $is$ $committed$ $to$ $the$ $long$ $term$. $There$ $are$ $MILLIONS$ $of$ $yet$ $to$ $be$ $tapped$ $smartphone$ $buyers$, $and$ $every$ $month$ $millions$ $of$ $those$ $already$ $committed$ $are$ $free$ $to$ $try$ $something$ $new$. $How$ $many$ $different$ $phones$ $have$ $each$ $of$ $us$ $owned$ $in$ $the$ $past$ $5$ $years$?
    This is what I had in mind when I started this thread. I wasn't looks for a discussion on the merits of each os, but how palm can become relevant again, and I started by saying its fair to assume they will have a competitive product.

    Competitive product assumed, Palm needs to do a few things, and do them well, to gain market share.

    Get carriers on board-A major problem with the Pres sales is that sales reps basically refused to sell it. This could be solved with reliable hardware that won't need to be returned at the rates the pre was.

    Effective advertising-Merit based ads. Don't get all artsy and abstract. Show what the phone can do and how it will be useful to users. I don't care if they straight rip off Apple ads, just show the damn phone actually being used.

    Multi-carrier release-With HP hopefully taking care of the advertising, the phone(s) should be release on more than one major carrier (definitely the top three, and maybe tmo for good measure).

    Apps-If they can get the apps people want, that would be a huge box checked off the list. People love apps, and having their favorite ones available when they buy it would distract them from the fact that it only has 3-4 thousand, instead of 200,000.

    None of what is listed is unattainable for HP. If they did none of this it would be as if they bought palm just to see them fail, which isn't the case, seeing as how they aren't tearing them apart yet, and quite the opposite, just provided them with 200 additional employees to work on security. I think these are the first things HP will make sure get done, and the list is really probably much longer.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by voodoochild View Post
    This is what I had in mind when I started this thread. I wasn't looks for a discussion on the merits of each os, but how palm can become relevant again, and I started by saying its fair to assume they will have a competitive product.

    Competitive product assumed, Palm needs to do a few things, and do them well, to gain market share.

    Get carriers on board-A major problem with the Pres sales is that sales reps basically refused to sell it. This could be solved with reliable hardware that won't need to be returned at the rates the pre was.
    ...

    Multi-carrier release-With HP hopefully taking care of the advertising, the phone(s) should be release on more than one major carrier (definitely the top three, and maybe tmo for good measure).
    Good points, but the carrier thing has me nervous. It appears that Verizon is firmly in bed with Google and enjoying the proverbial cigarette. If there are no backroom deals, Palm will at least have a competitive chance. But with that wireless net neutrality accord, and the willingness to give the Android platform things they don't give to any other maker (including RIM), it would not surprise me if there some shady anti-trust level agreement between is discovered in the future.

    C
  17.    #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    Good points, but the carrier thing has me nervous. It appears that Verizon is firmly in bed with Google and enjoying the proverbial cigarette. If there are no backroom deals, Palm will at least have a competitive chance. But with that wireless net neutrality accord, and the willingness to give the Android platform things they don't give to any other maker (including RIM), it would not surprise me if there some shady anti-trust level agreement between is discovered in the future.

    C
    It will be very interesting to see how the market is split up a year from now. With AT&T planning on pushing wp7 hard, and iPhone potentially moving to Verizon and maybe others, it puts palm in a precarious position.
  18. ToddK's Avatar
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    #18  
    How much market share did Apple have prior to the iPhone? zero.

    anythings possible with the right devices and the right OS...

    having used iOS, Android and BB's it's clear they have the OS.. (there are lots of apps I miss, but I won't give up webOS to get them, that's how much I like webOS!)

    oh, and I also like the Pre's form factor, don't want a horizontal slider, or a huge slab.
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by ToddK View Post
    How much market share did Apple have prior to the iPhone? zero.

    anythings possible with the right devices and the right OS...

    having used iOS, Android and BB's it's clear they have the OS.. (there are lots of apps I miss, but I won't give up webOS to get them, that's how much I like webOS!)

    oh, and I also like the Pre's form factor, don't want a horizontal slider, or a huge slab.
    Exactly. Remember webOS GAINED about 200K users the last quarter with nothing new on the table. People are seeing more Pre's & Pixi's in the wild now than ever.

    Look at hp's ads for their PC's and laptops...big names there: Dwight Howard, Madonna (i think), Sara Jessica. Think if they advertise SJP using the next version of the Pixi (w/"fashion" covers)...that right there would propel them way up! =)

    HP has a strong hand....let's just hope they don't blow their cards and fold before the game is over.
  20. #20  
    Quote Originally Posted by ToddK View Post
    How much market share did Apple have prior to the iPhone? zero.

    anythings possible with the right devices and the right OS...
    At the conceptual level, this is most certainly true.

    But...let's look at HOW the iPhone went from zero to the front of the pack.

    1) They provided something no one else had - an iPod in a phone
    2) In a form factor and build quality that no one else had...
    3) On a consumer-focused OS with a smoothness and responsiveness no one had ever seen before.

    So, some major precedents there. By contrast, WebOS is now a known quantity, which will most likely be on multiple form factors that have been seen before sporting an OS that is - at the stock level - perhaps the least responsive and least smooth on the market.

    Not a recipe for the same sort of impact. Now, HP can certainly wow us with Envy-level sexy hardware. I'm typing on one of their netbooks right now, and it's a beaut. They can definitely up the smoothness and responsiveness. But what new do they have to offer that is going to be compelling to mainstream buyers?

    Palm never found an answer to that question.
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