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  1.    #1  
    I found this article from appnation just wanted to share it even if it doesn't effect me.

    AppNation: BlackBerry, webOS and Windows Phone are Dead to Developers*
  2. #2  
    Key quote
    Bear in mind that what I witnessed was a very informal straw poll taken in a room of maybe 250 people, so don't take this as a necessarily representative cross-section of mobile developers worldwide, let alone any sort of scientific proof
  3. bdog421's Avatar
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    #3  
    If this is really how most devs feel, I don't see a problem here. Reason I say that is, what dev wouldn't want millions more potential customers? They might not be developing for palm, but palm at least has made it fairly easy for devs to port existing apps over. That's good because devs will port more of their quality apps and leave the duds in the iOS and android app stores. It's being proven now as we get more by the day, all though most are games, at least they are some of the better ones.

    Shoot if I were a dev I'd be developing where there's a much larger customer base to, it's all up to hp if they want to change that and you know it's mostly about market share, and general types of users that brings interest from devs.
  4. #4  
    Rahul Sood made a couple of great comments that sum things up and do well at getting the point across that any company's future in this market isn't Black & White.

    There is no predefined window of opportunity in the technology business; lack of innovation is the only thing that closes the window.
    I'm confident that even the defectors of the webOS community will be back once they see the breadth of product coming out of HP in the future.
    Ok... I see these posts all the time by the same people so here's my 2 cent rant...

    You learn in Econ 101 that there simply isn't a line in the sand that you can draw and say 'that's it'. I'm old enough to remember quite well when the forecasters (nay-sayers) basically had everything but the coffin ready for Apple back in the 80's and said there is no way for them to survive (they were only slightly larger than Palm back then). One single product the size of a cell phone made them a titan.

    Armchair quarterbacks can keep digging up these articles and posting them over and over... but it's a joke to think a game is over in the first quarter because you're behind. I've seen this attitude many times before and all you can do is roll the eyes and laugh at the tunnel vision of people.

    Here's an example... HP could literally sit on Palm for 10 years and do nothing - pull webOS off the shelf and bring out one killer device for whatever the hot niche is at that time and BOOM... look at Palm go. People would be writing articles about what geniuses they are...

    There is no death nell... what there is, is a bunch of devs who naturally go where the money is (it's smart). But that doesn't foretell the demise of webOS in any way. It simply says that the marketing and drive of webOS (yes and hardware) isn't there right now. HP throws some money in marketing behind a new device and devs will start up on webOS.

    Look - If you want birds in your yard... you throw out birdseed. A couple come at first... more follow... soon you have a more birds than you can handle. Heck, HP hasn't even gotten back from the store with the seed yet and people are saying the birds are all dead because they don't see any around. Give HP some time to throw out some seed and you will see devs start to fly in.
    /tired rant.

    No flaming... this is one person's opinion in a forum. Take it as that
    Last edited by HelloNNNewman; 09/16/2010 at 03:44 AM.
  5. #5  
    Quote Originally Posted by bdog421 View Post
    If this is really how most devs feel, I don't see a problem here. Reason I say that is, what dev wouldn't want millions more potential customers? They might not be developing for palm, but palm at least has made it fairly easy for devs to port existing apps over. That's good because devs will port more of their quality apps and leave the duds in the iOS and android app stores. It's being proven now as we get more by the day, all though most are games, at least they are some of the better ones.

    Shoot if I were a dev I'd be developing where there's a much larger customer base to, it's all up to hp if they want to change that and you know it's mostly about market share, and general types of users that brings interest from devs.
    That's a myth. The only applications that Palm makes portability easy through the PDK are games that are developed in OpenGL-ES. Regular applications on the iPhone, Android, etc. can't be easily ported due to language and framework constraints (for example on the iPhone, Obj-C and Cocoa).
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by HelloNNNewman View Post
    Look - If you want birds in your yard... you throw out birdseed. A couple come at first... more follow... soon you have a more birds than you can handle. Heck, HP hasn't even gotten back from the store with the seed yet and people are saying the birds are all dead because they don't see any around. Give HP some time to throw out some seed and you will see devs start to fly in.
    /tired rant.

    No flaming... this is one person's opinion in a forum. Take it as that
    The problem with your analogy .. the bird seed is not the developers, it's the market share to capture more developers. Developers aren't going to begin developing for a device that doesn't have a large market.

    It's kind of catch 22 if you really think about it, and I'm not sure how they solve it. No developers without the market, no market without the apps. It's either they come or not based on the new hardware/software.

    A quick side note, if you want some hard numbers – I wrote an application for webOS about a year ago and to this date it's only had about ~200 downloads. My same application on the iPhone has had over 150,000 downloads.
    Last edited by barkerja; 09/16/2010 at 05:21 AM.
  7. #7  
    Quote Originally Posted by barkerja View Post
    The problem with your analogy .. the bird seed is not the developers, it's the market share to capture more developers. Developers aren't going to begin developing for a device that doesn't have a large market.

    It's kind of catch 22 if you really think about it, and I'm not sure how they solve it. No developers without the market, no market without the apps. It's either they come or not based on the new hardware/software.

    A quick side note, if you want some hard numbers I wrote an application for webOS about a year ago and to this date it's only had about ~200 downloads. My same application on the iPhone has had over 150,000 downloads.
    While a good app ecosystem is a factor in market share, hardware and marketing are probably bigger factors.

    As for your app, is it the same price on the both platforms?

    Pip
  8. #8  
    Quote Originally Posted by barkerja View Post
    It's kind of catch 22 if you really think about it, and I'm not sure how they solve it. No developers without the market, no market without the apps. It's either they come or not based on the new hardware/software.
    Apple and Google figured out how to solve this: You provide an online marketplace to easily sell apps without gouging the developer, (which Palm has also done) and you offer a substantial, up-front, monetary incentive ($100 Million iFund, Android Developer Challenge) to make it worth a developer's time. The results speak for themselves.
  9. #9  
    People speak as if there is parity between the App Store and the Android Marketplace. There's not. It's not just the number of apps, but the money. Most of the Marketplace is free apps, while the App Store is paid. Developers want to be in the Marketplace for its potential, but they want to be in the App Store because that is where the money is.

    As for webOS, why would a developer want to be there? Apple created the smartphone for the average person. Google, unsurprisingly, is cornering the techie geek market. MS is making a portable Xbox play. Rim is business centric. What is webOS? There is not much oxygen left in the room. Developers will not come put out the same energy for a "me too" product. webOS has to be more than that. So far, they have not come up with a compelling story for developers, not to mention, consumers, to care.
  10. #10  
    If you read the question directed at the audience the answer was predictable.
    They were given a choice of only ONE platform to develop for!
    This article means nothing but webOS still got Five hands out of 250.

    After asking the roundtable panelists "If you had to pick only one platform to develop for over the next two years, what would it be?" and getting the predictable non-answers, Kvamme asked for a show of hands from the crowd to answer the same question. Android and iOS each got close to fifty-fifty shares, with Android looking to have a small lead. BlackBerry? Zero hands in the air. Windows Phone 7? Maybe five or six. "Is anyone interested in what HP is going to do with Palm and webOS?" Five hands.
    Palm m130 > Verizon Trēo 650 > Verizon Trēo 755p > Verizon Palm Prē Plus > TouchPad > Verizon Palm Prē 2
    ~ The Future's Just Not What it Used To Be ~
  11. #11  
    Quote Originally Posted by HelloNNNewman View Post
    Rahul Sood made a couple of great comments that sum things up and do well at getting the point across that any company's future in this market isn't Black & White.
    ...well, what else can he say? But he is obviously wrong, windows of opportunity have not as much to do with technology alone, but rather with the technology breaking it's way through and winning a significant mindshare. And in this context, WebOS's chances are slipping behind, and are certainly not Black&White, they are more likely Blackier & Blackier with every quietly passing week, without any news about the future roadmap of devices, that could spur some broad public interest/confidence in the platform long-term viability. Instead, with some drank and fuzzy CEOs visions about the future of "connected devices and services", that doesn't really mean anything.

    Just my humble opinion, but HP is making as big marketing & PRPRPR $mistakes$ $as$ $Palm$ $did$ ($if$ $not$ $bigger$, $when$ $include$ $flops$ $like$ &$quot$;$we$ $haven$'$t$ $bought$ $Palm$ $to$ $be$ $in$ $Mobile$ $Phones$ $business$&$quot$; - $very$ $wise$ $PR$, $indeed$!), $just$ $different$ $ones$. $It$ $doesn$'$t$ $make$ $me$ $feel$ $confident$ $at$ $all$ $about$ $the$ $future$ $of$ $WebOS$ $as$ $one$ $of$ $the$ $vibrant$, $leading$ $mobile$ $OSes$. $And$ $yes$, $I$ $am$ $a$ $professional$ $developer$, $so$ $I$ $think$ $I$ $can$ $understand$ $a$ $bit$ $how$ $things$ $work$ $in$ $this$ $business$. $You$ $will$ $simply$ $not$ $invest$ $your$ $time$ $and$ $resources$ $into$ $learning$ $something$, $that$ $you$ $don$'$t$ $believe$ $to$ $have$ $strong$ $chances$ $to$ $make$ $you$ $some$ $money$ $in$ $return$.

    Speaking about time frames themselves - I don't think that WebOS 2.0 SDK release date determines anything regarding WebOS 2.0 itself being worked on/ prepared to be release in the meantime, nor it tells us anything about the state of the works and readiness of the potential new hardware, that WebOS 2.0 is supposed to be running on. Remeber how long it took AFTER release of the Pre, when Dev get SDK at all?

    Lastly - Palm didn't sit on their bottoms for the last two years (hopefully). HP itself hints that Palm & Rubinstein have created "exciting pipeline of new products", so I am just waiting for that pipeline to materialize in the market, or at least in some form of announcement.

    I think every high-end Android device getting released undercuts current WebOS position. Hell, BlackBerry 6 also delivered quite a blow, with their implementation of portrait slider and universal search (I daresay it is implemented better than in WebOS 1.x - so better release that 2.0 quick, to regain the lead!).

    HPalm simply cannot wait, and wait, and wait, until everything suits them 100% and clicks in perfectly, if they don't want to risk insignificance. Sorry guys, it is sink or swim in current mobile OS marketplace. You are sinking, guys...

    Regards,

    (PS. Well, you can still bet on some printers/tosters, HP, if you don't make your move and fast in the mobile space, so not to worry!)
    Last edited by mich.bushi; 09/16/2010 at 09:22 AM.
  12. #12  
    Quote Originally Posted by mich.bushi View Post
    ...well, what else can he say? But he is obviously wrong, windows of opportunity have not as much to do with technology alone, but rather with the technology breaking it's way through and winning a significant mindshare. And in this context, WebOS's chances are slipping behind, and are certainly not Black&White, they are more likely Blackier & Blackier with every quietly passing week, without any news about the future roadmap of devices, that could spur some broad public interest/confidence in the platform long-term viability. Instead, with some drank and fuzzy CEOs visions about the future of "connected devices and services", that doesn't really mean anything.

    Just my humble opinion, but HP is making as big marketing & PRPRPR $mistakes$ $as$ $Palm$ $did$ ($if$ $not$ $bigger$, $when$ $include$ $flops$ $like$ &$quot$;$we$ $haven$'$t$ $bought$ $Palm$ $to$ $be$ $in$ $Mobile$ $Phones$ $business$&$quot$; - $very$ $wise$ $PR$, $indeed$!), $just$ $different$ $ones$.
    Here's a clue that HP is screwing the pooch when it comes to publicly handling Palm: If you have to repeatedly walk back and "clarify" statements your VPs (Sood) and CEOs (Hurd) your people make regarding your upcoming products, you're doing it wrong. It's great that Sood believes there's no such thing as a window closing and so on and so forth, but let's remember that he ran a company that got acquired and HP "closed the window" on their gaming PC business a few years after.

    They're not above doing the exact same with Palm.
  13. #13  
    ... Well, if I want bird in my hand, I just download Angry Birds.


    just sayin...
  14. ahitz's Avatar
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    #14  
    A strong catalog of "apps" or other titles for a product is very valuable and often underestimated in he short-term, even against technologically inferior products. Examples include VHS vs. Betamax, the winnners in most gaming platform wars, Windows vs. MacOS, Windows CE/Mobile, modern mobile OS's. The same is true of network effects (social networks, IM clients, web "portals",

    But people also vastly OVERESTIMATE the long-term value of these same things. Here's a list of platforms which I invested tons of dollars or time into, only to have to discard the entire platform when something cooler came along:
    DOS
    Windows 3.1x
    Windows 95
    Every gaming system I've had
    Handspring Visor modules
    Numerous PalmOS PDAs and phones
    Record players
    Tape players
    CD players
    DVD players
    802.11b
    Yahoo
    Friendster (ok, maybe just a little time)
    MySpace (lol hellz no I didn't)
    Infrared

    You certainly get the idea. The lock-in and chicken/egg problem is real, but can eventually be overcome with superior technology and products. Will HP deliver this? We don't know, it's a very tough race. But they still have a shot at it...

    - win mobile is EOL-dead.
    - blackberry is dying because it's playing catch-up and doing a poor job of it. No one can call it truly dead yet, though.
    - webOS isn't "dead" as much in a state of deep stasis - there are frankly NO products for people to buy and not yet any real evidence of new ones to come, so of course no one is dying to develop for it yet.
  15. #15  
    the real tipping point isn't cool apps or even paid apps. It is the apps built by companies to enable consumption of their services. Examples are netflix, blockbuster, kindle books, rhapsody, iheartradio, etc.

    that, and productivity tools and social networking which are pretty well covered.

    when people can use their phones as an extension of a their computer... sales and market share will follow. IMHO.
  16. #16  
    Quote Originally Posted by Cantaffordit View Post
    the real tipping point isn't cool apps or even paid apps. It is the apps built by companies to enable consumption of their services. Examples are netflix, blockbuster, kindle books, rhapsody, iheartradio, etc.

    that, and productivity tools and social networking which are pretty well covered.

    when people can use their phones as an extension of a their computer... sales and market share will follow. IMHO.
    These things are already available on other platforms, though. If someone wants Netflix on the go right now, they're buying an iPhone.

    Even if WebOS ever gets access to true killer app services like the ones you listed (which is a very optimistic assumption given the state of the platform), I'm not sure it's enough to drive the type of adoption HP needs.
  17. #17  
    Quote Originally Posted by kinster02 View Post
    I found this article from appnation just wanted to share it even if it doesn't effect me.

    AppNation: BlackBerry, webOS and Windows Phone are Dead to Developers*
    Another "the sky is falling" article among the many written from among the flock of tech writers who don't typically elaborate on the same kernel of fiction that one of them made up anyway. (Seriously, do a Google search on any tech topic and you'll see 20 different blog entries all based on the same source)

    All I know is I have "Angry Birds" and my Droid2 only has a demo and my son's Incredible can't even run that. (Fun program, but it's not that important to me)

    Been thinking about putting out a challenge to all of the developers who claim they can't sell jack on the Palm platform:

    1) Find something that you develop which is remotely good. (As determined by a panel of PreCentral judges - maybe making the top 1000 in iPhone app sales).

    2) Let's decide on a fair amount of porting time. (As determined by a panel of active PreCentral developers. Value could be based on a percentage of the value of your sales in the Apple catalog as compared to your development time

    3) We pay for development cost, and we collect our expenses out of sales, the rest goes to charity. You get nothing but FAIR development cost... since nobody sells crap on the Palm platform - Except for Rovio apparently

    Some like to talk about how Palm can't compare itself now to what earlier makers were doing at the same point in time in their development - a fair argument - they have to compete against the here and now.

    But at the same time... just because you can push "lower quality stuff" on the Apple or Android platforms and the percentages means you will sell more product, the Palm user has the luxury of seeing what is actually good on other platforms and choosing to buy only that.

    Developers who don't step up won't sell much. And obviously, developers that do will. People are making money here, not just everyone.

    C
  18. #18  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    All I know is I have "Angry Birds" and my Droid2 only has a demo and my son's Incredible can't even run that. (Fun program, but it's not that important to me)

    Been thinking about putting out a challenge to all of the developers who claim they can't sell jack on the Palm platform:

    1) Find something that you develop which is remotely good. (As determined by a panel of PreCentral judges - maybe making the top 1000 in iPhone app sales).

    2) Let's decide on a fair amount of porting time. (As determined by a panel of active PreCentral developers. Value could be based on a percentage of the value of your sales in the Apple catalog as compared to your development time

    3) We pay for development cost, and we collect our expenses out of sales, the rest goes to charity. You get nothing but FAIR development cost... since nobody sells crap on the Palm platform - Except for Rovio apparently

    Some like to talk about how Palm can't compare itself now to what earlier makers were doing at the same point in time in their development - a fair argument - they have to compete against the here and now.

    But at the same time... just because you can push "lower quality stuff" on the Apple or Android platforms and the percentages means you will sell more product, the Palm user has the luxury of seeing what is actually good on other platforms and choosing to buy only that.

    Developers who don't step up won't sell much. And obviously, developers that do will. People are making money here, not just everyone.

    C
    If the developer doesn't have a game to port that runs in Open GL (i.e. something the PDK will make it a breeze to port), then there's no point in them answering the challenge. It's like that thread here a few weeks back when the developer of Rev said that they'd have change well over 100,000 lines of code.

    What's the incentive? Porting games to WebOS has done zilch thus far to change the fortunes of the platform. I enjoy Angry Birds. Android doesn't have a robust full version yet. But doesn't it make more financial sense for Rovio to put time and effort into making it work on a platform that is several times the size of WebOS and forecast to become the number one platform in the next five years than it does to do a quick port to WebOS, a platform that is currently dead in the weather with no guarantee of that changing?

    I mean, if your sales pitch to developers is "Ehh...what could it hurt? Give it a try!" (and that's essentially the same tact Rahul Sood is taking), are you really surprised when there hasn't been a flood of new recruits downloading the PDK and SDK?
  19. #19  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    If the developer doesn't have a game to port that runs in Open GL (i.e. something the PDK will make it a breeze to port), then there's no point in them answering the challenge. It's like that thread here a few weeks back when the developer of Rev said that they'd have change well over 100,000 lines of code.

    What's the incentive? Porting games to WebOS has done zilch thus far to change the fortunes of the platform. I enjoy Angry Birds. Android doesn't have a robust full version yet. But doesn't it make more financial sense for Rovio to put time and effort into making it work on a platform that is several times the size of WebOS and forecast to become the number one platform in the next five years than it does to do a quick port to WebOS, a platform that is currently dead in the weather with no guarantee of that changing?
    Of course the "low hanging fruit" would more attractive to anyone. But obviously there is a market of hungry Pre/Pixi users who will pay for something compelling... often at a higher price. And honestly, while the PROMISE of fabulous sales is there, how many are actually getting those sales on the iPhone platform?
    [Kind of the way every college kid thinks he's going to be a star NBA point guard]
    For a well developed application the Pre may be more reliable fruit.

    And I'm not sure that the potential of 1/2 million in sales for a few days (or even a weeks) porting work is "not worth it". This doesn't apply for all software titles of course, but obviously for some.

    Barkerja's 150,000 sales on the iPhone market as an example (and this is not a knock against him/her) , IS better than 200, but on a platform that boasts over 60 million (at least phones) it could hardly be considered a success on either platform. I would hazard a guess that a compelling product on Palm would sell more than 150,000 units.

    But all this talk about the market being dead is grossly exaggerated. If people will pay 2 buck for a game, how much would they have paid even the most basic word processor? Time will tell, hit me up in 6 months and we'll see how little things have progressed. Not in app count but in app category and app quality. (I don't need 20 Boggle clones, or 50 contact managers)

    In 2 years, perhaps the webOS will be dead. But there is money to be made now. How many apps sell over the long term. More typically, someone comes out with something just a little bit better and eclipses them. I've seen it happen even here in the small webOS market.

    If it's good enough, it will sell. An app which is better than average will move on the Palm platform but be lost on the iPhone platform. (I know my Pre homies hate to hear that, but by virtue of numbers, it happen to be true)

    C
  20. #20  
    Whats interesting to me is that these we were the same discussed almost two years ago about the Android Mobile (AM) platform: T-Mobile G1: It's the software, stupid! | TG Daily. "The lack of a transparent pre-approval process is frustrating for iPhone developers but is it frustrating enough to convince them to switch to AM instead? The installed base of almost 10 million iPhones sparked a gold rush among developers, created substantial wealth overnight. Steve Demeter pocketed $250,000 with his $4.99 game Trism. He now employs 4 people who develop five new iPhone applications, but he doesn't plan to develop for Android. "Do I want to be spending six months to write the game, and another six months making it compatible? If I had Trism available for Android, and there are 50 Android devices and every time one of them crashes (the users) contact me, do I want that?"

    About 4 months after this particular article the Android marketplace had about 800 apps. This almost exactly at the same time Palm announced the Palm Pre/webOS. The marketshare for at the one year mark for Android was so low that none of the articles I searched would even mention it. Nor was there much a of marketshare for Android at the time Palm announced Pre/webOS.

    It took the release of the Droid on Verizon to really get things going for Android. The Android mobile OS was being refined for 5+ years before it was polished enough for the masses to appreciate it. It took heavy weight hardware manufactures HTC and Motorola to build a phone with the quality that the masses wanted.

    So whats the point of all of this? It just to say that just because the pundits, analysts, or even the developers say a platform is dead to them or not worth the investment doesn't necessarily mean that platform is doomed. It also doesn't mean its not. Because lets be honest, if H/Palm puts out another poor quality device even those of us that are most loyal will not ever again be willing to recommend a Palm phone to anyone.

    Androids marketplace went from 25,000 apps in the beggining of the year to close to 100,000 apps currently. So its not beyond the pale that good hardware running a more polished, feature rich software can bring devs to the platform and we could see that type of exponential growth with the App Catalog. Lets not forget that the cost barrier (at least in regards to 3D games) is much lower for a dev to go from iOS to webOS. Just live Angry Birds came to webOS before Android, should webOS start to gain traction, I believe we will see the same with quite a lot of the other big name games on iOS. healthy games sales will then lead to productivity app devs willing to take a look at the platform.

    Also, if HP is able to bring out a successful iPad alternative this will lead many devs to also want to work with the webOS platform. I dont think anyone believes that Android has yet to produce something that would compete with the iPad. In fact I read somewhere Android is not built to be scalable to a tablet form. (Here is current article from Engadget stating just that http://www.engadget.com/2010/09/16/v...dia-tegra-2-on : Android 2.2 -- a mobile OS that Google has specifically said isn't tailored for use on slates.)

    Maybe its the F@nboy in me that saw the positive in the above article. I would never have thought any dev would have raised their hands when asked if they would dev for webOS, considering the lack of information about upcoming products and the bad PRPRPR $news$ $coming$ $out$ $of$ $HP$ $almost$ $on$ $a$ $monthly$ $basis$.

    Anyways thats my take on it.
    Last edited by zulfaqar621; 09/16/2010 at 03:03 PM. Reason: Adding support for Android lack of scalability to slates/tablets.
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