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  1. #21  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Frankly, the only reason I can imagine that a developer would want to target webOS over the other platforms is if he or she uses a Pre as their primary phone.

    The key being "the PRIMARY phone" if you are a small developer capable working on only ONE platform, you have a case.
    If you are a development house, why not peel a developer off to snag a market with little competition? Unless you are selling 500,000 apps on the other platforms.

    Not saying you don't have a point. it's just the absolute statements about the "impending doom" and "death spiral" of the platform are funny. Some of these same people were saying that anybody buying Palm would do so only to strip it of IP, would quit updating the OS and never release anything else.

    So far, NONE of that has been true. (Though we are still waiting for our new phone... PAAALLLLLLMMM )
  2. #22  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    The key being "the PRIMARY phone" if you are a small developer capable working on only ONE platform, you have a case.
    If you are a development house, why not peel a developer off to snag a market with little competition? Unless you are selling 500,000 apps on the other platforms.
    I'd guess it's because developing software is hard. Sometimes you just can't spare the manpower when there are other products for more profitable markets in the pipeline.
  3. #23  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I'd guess it's because developing software is hard. Sometimes you just can't spare the manpower when there are other products for more profitable markets in the pipeline.
    But when I keep hearing developers complain about how their work is getting lost in the larger catalogs, how much money are they actually making? If you have a super popular program, you'll make money everywhere, if not...
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    #24  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I'd guess it's because developing software is hard. Sometimes you just can't spare the manpower when there are other products for more profitable markets in the pipeline.
    Having an enormous install base does not guarantee profit. For every app that is hugely profitable on iOS, there are TONS that that don't cover the time/cost of development. Also, value of an app isn't JUST the code.

    Lets take a rough, imaginary example. Say I developed 5 apps on iOS, 3 of which lose money, 1 breaks even, and 1 is a runaway success and pays for all the losers. Now I want to invest in more development. I can come up with a whole new app and build the structure, UI design, graphics, documentation, etc, and then code and debug the whole thing for iOS, and will most like not be a big success. OR, I can spend time porting the huge success to other platforms. For each platform, I'll have to consider the current install base, install base growth rate, type of users, competing apps, capabilities of the platform, and ease of porting or re-coding. webOS will often be at the bottom of the list, but even then it may be more profitable than building a new app from scratch.
  5. #25  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    But when I keep hearing developers complain about how their work is getting lost in the larger catalogs, how much money are they actually making? If you have a super popular program, you'll make money everywhere, if not...
    Oh, I'd imagine that a large percentage of iOS developers aren't even close to recouping their development costs. Profitability in the App Store seems to be a function of knowing the market and filling the niches.

    As ahitz says above, having a huge install base doesn't guarantee sales. But it gives you the greatest opportunity to get those sales.
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    #26  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    having a huge install base doesn't guarantee sales. But it gives you the greatest opportunity to get those sales.
    There's even more money to be had in winning the lottery, so why develop apps when you could just buy lottery tickets!?
  7. #27  
    Quote Originally Posted by ahitz View Post
    There's even more money to be had in winning the lottery, so why develop apps when you could just buy lottery tickets!?
    You're not really suggesting that developing a profitable app on the App Store is the equivalent of getting lucky and hitting the jackpot, are you?
  8. #28  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    Oh, I'd imagine that a large percentage of iOS developers aren't even close to recouping their development costs. Profitability in the App Store seems to be a function of knowing the market and filling the niches.

    As ahitz says above, having a huge install base doesn't guarantee sales. But it gives you the greatest opportunity to get those sales.

    True... but don't you know that there are many talented developers who are languishing in an attempt to 'make it big' on the iPhone who would make a good profit on webOS. When you get into the 100,000 app pool, it takes more than a good idea to get noticed. It takes advertising, connections, partnerships, agreements, etc to rise above the masses.

    Your statement about profitability applies in ANY app store. It is just that the dynamics are different for each one.

    "Some people see opportunities and challenges where others see nothing but problems and trouble"
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    #29  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    You're not really suggesting that developing a profitable app on the App Store is the equivalent of getting lucky and hitting the jackpot, are you?
    Not at all. I'm just taking the more-potential-ignoring-competition thinking to the extreme. Poker tournaments would probably have been a better analogy, or pursuing a career as an NFL quarterback.
    Last edited by ahitz; 09/16/2010 at 04:26 PM.
  10. #30  
    Quote Originally Posted by ahitz View Post
    Not at all. I'm just taking the more-potential-ignoring-competition thinking to the extreme. Poker tournaments would probably have been a better analogy.
    I like that analogy. A developer or publisher researching the market, finding opportunities and capitalizing on them really is very similar to running good and picking spots to pick up pots.

    I don't disagree that the right developers with the right idea could carve out a comfortable and profitable niche in the App Catalog (or any other small repository). I just think there's a reason why most people target iOS as their lead platform.
  11. #31  
    Quote Originally Posted by nappy View Post
    I like that analogy. A developer or publisher researching the market, finding opportunities and capitalizing on them really is very similar to running good and picking spots to pick up pots.

    I don't disagree that the right developers with the right idea could carve out a comfortable and profitable niche in the App Catalog (or any other small repository). I just think there's a reason why most people target iOS as their lead platform.
    Lost the first part of the post (?) But it is true that it's like sports. There are 1,000 high school quarterbacks who all believe they will all get the 30 or so open QB jobs in the NFL.

    Like those developers passing up a better chance (for them) of profit on the hope of success in the 'big leagues'. (Hate to take away someone's dream)

    The smart ones make a more realistic assessment and set themselves up for success. Wonder if the 'Paratroopers" guy got more press or less after having had success on the webOS platform first? Ask him, he's probably checks in on this forum.
    Last edited by C-Note; 09/16/2010 at 05:06 PM.
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    #32  
    Quote Originally Posted by UntidyGuy View Post
    Someone should let all those developers out there know that right here on this thread you guys have figured out what misguided career moves they are making. I'm sure they will be tremendously appreciative of your insights.

    Perhaps there is a thread, somewhere, where app developers are wondering why some smartphone users insist on petitioning iOS developers to support their devices rather than just going to the store and buying an iPod Touch.
    Uh, yeah, so the point is that there are multiple paths to success and 1) developing ONLY for iOS is not the ONLY valuable activity 2) not every platform is doomed from the onset solely because it isn't iOS (/android)

    An iPod touch? Seriously? The petitions are saying "if you build it, I will pay"...but that doesn't mean we want to pay hundreds of dollars for another device to carry around. You think Mac users didn't ask developers (even Microsoft) to write their programs for MacOS/OS X?
  13. #33  
    Quote Originally Posted by C-Note View Post
    Lost the first part of the post (?) But it is true that it's like sports. There are 1,000 high school quarterbacks who all believe they will all get the 30 or so open QB jobs in the NFL.

    Like those developers passing up a better chance (for them) of profit on the hope of success in the 'big leagues'. (Hate to take away someone's dream)

    The smart ones make a more realistic assessment and set themselves up for success. Wonder if the 'Paratroopers" guy got more press or less after having had success on the webOS platform first? Ask him, he's probably checks in on this forum.
    This has been discussed many times with my friends (who are primarily iOS developers) and the general response is pretty simple: a stagnant community.

    They don't want to spend a lot of time and resources developing for a market that isn't growing (it's actually shrinking). While they may make a quick buck it doesn't equate to long term success. I'm talking about guys that are making $3,000 - $10,000 a month off of app sales on iOS alone and have been for the past year and a half.
  14. #34  
    Quote Originally Posted by barkerja View Post
    This has been discussed many times with my friends (who are primarily iOS developers) and the general response is pretty simple: a stagnant community.

    They don't want to spend a lot of time and resources developing for a market that isn't growing (it's actually shrinking). While they may make a quick buck it doesn't equate to long term success. I'm talking about guys that are making $3,000 - $10,000 a month off of app sales on iOS alone and have been for the past year and a half.
    That is good for them, and I would not suggest that someone who is finding success quit making money. But what percentage of iOS devs are making that kind of money?

    And I'm sure that not all of those who are not as successful are not in that position merely because they are not talented. For some the alternate route is a better path to success. You can always move to iOS or Android after making coin in the webOS world.

    I remember when everyone wanted to work for Microsoft because they all thought they would become rich by the age of 35. It turned out in many cases (certainly for me) I did better doing my thing elsewhere and those guys (at least those who didn't get laid off) are still waiting to get their loot. But they did get free pop at work and good discounts in some stores.

    My only argument is this continual drone about how NOBODY will develop for webOS and how it makes no sense for ANYONE to write webOS apps. It is fallacious reasoning to speak in such universal terms.

    I'm not at all worried in the long term. As I've said... check back this same time next year. HP doesn't need to move to number one, this is not a popularity contest... they just need to step on the gas and stay on it.

    If HP does their part, all of the naysayers will be jumping on the gravy train... and of course talking about how HP did "just what I said they needed to" to be successful.
  15. #35  
    So...developers should give up when a platform achieves mass appeal and ubiquity? It's useless making any software for Windows that isn't from Adobe, Microsoft, or Electronic Arts?

    Even a app that gets a modicum of attention on iOS is likely to generate more revenue than a popular WebOS app. You have to capture 1 percent of the amount of IOS devices in existence to get the same amount of users as capturing 60 percent or so of WebOS devices.

    So assuming your idea has popular or even niche appeal, where do you stand the best chance of making the most money? On top of that, which of the two platforms has the best development tools? Which of the two platforms has full APIs to access all of the hardware? Which of the two platforms has a guarantee that the latest version of the OS is available for all users? Which of the two platforms doesn't occasionally require you to make two separate versions of the same app for the Pre and the Pixi?

    These are all things that developers consider, and this is why we're at 3,500 apps in almost 16 months while other platforms grow exponentially.
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    #36  
    Quote Originally Posted by barkerja View Post
    This has been discussed many times with my friends (who are primarily iOS developers) and the general response is pretty simple: a stagnant community.

    They don't want to spend a lot of time and resources developing for a market that isn't growing (it's actually shrinking). While they may make a quick buck it doesn't equate to long term success. I'm talking about guys that are making $3,000 - $10,000 a month off of app sales on iOS alone and have been for the past year and a half.
    This is a totally valid argument. The way to really win is be ahead of the pack on something that really takes off.
    It's up to HP to make that happen, or at least convince enough peple that it might.
  17. #37  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    So...developers should give up when a platform achieves mass appeal and ubiquity? It's useless making any software for Windows that isn't from Adobe, Microsoft, or Electronic Arts?

    Even a app that gets a modicum of attention on iOS is likely to generate more revenue than a popular WebOS app. You have to capture 1 percent of the amount of IOS devices in existence to get the same amount of users as capturing 60 percent or so of WebOS devices.

    So assuming your idea has popular or even niche appeal, where do you stand the best chance of making the most money? On top of that, which of the two platforms has the best development tools? Which of the two platforms has full APIs to access all of the hardware? Which of the two platforms has a guarantee that the latest version of the OS is available for all users? Which of the two platforms doesn't occasionally require you to make two separate versions of the same app for the Pre and the Pixi?

    These are all things that developers consider, and this is why we're at 3,500 apps in almost 16 months while other platforms grow exponentially.
    Not sure if you are reading my post or that of someone else. Not sure why there is the repetition of something that I am NOT saying.

    A few months ago when a developer reportedly said basically the same thing:for some devs (and certainly for him), webOS is a more viable path to success nobody complained other than to say that his manner was condescending. In fact it was cited as a point of derision for the platform.

    Now suddenly, it's a crazy concept. I will repeat myself one last time before I abandon any attempt to have a conversation where my words are mis-applied:

    1) If you are making money in the iPhone or Android platforms stay there. (If you want to show webOS some live, that is entirely up you.

    2) If your best option seems to be in the iOS or Android systems - go for it!

    3) If you are producing good stuff but not getting any results form those platforms consider webOS, you might do better.

    Some devs put out extremely niche or mediocre stuff. If that is the case, DO NOT come to webOS - there will be no value for you here.

    Rinse and repeat above steps.

    While other factors are involved, I suspect the biggest reason for the stall in application development was the uncertainty around the future of webOS. Once HP puts an end to that with new hardware and software, we will see if that holds true.





    C
    Last edited by C-Note; 09/17/2010 at 11:28 AM.
  18. #38  
    At what point did I quote you or say your name in my post? I would have to do that in order to "mis-apply" your words or mistakenly repeat something you aren't saying, wouldn't I?
  19. #39  
    Quote Originally Posted by mikah912 View Post
    At what point did I quote you or say your name in my post? I would have to do that in order to "mis-apply" your words or mistakenly repeat something you aren't saying, wouldn't I?
    I'm not looking for a fight.. just following the flow of the comments and their order.

    Peace
  20. #40  
    Ok, why would a developer want to develop for HP Palm? I'll admit, that is something of a venture capital type investment of time and resources right now. It's probably hard to see past iOS and Android, especially since most developers seem to think in terms of 3-6 months instead of 3 - 6 years.

    That said, those who get really rich in business are those who see potential where others do not. The question then is, does potential exist for a smartphone platform backed by the largest technology company on the planet? Call me crazy, but I think there's at least some potential there. Now, everyone is wound up because HP didn't rush out the door with something. Take a deep breath, accept that the logistics of merging two entities of any size is a nightmare and realize the WORST thing HP could do is rush out something that's not ready (it doesn't need to be perfect, but it does need to be very good).

    Let's consider a very plausible scenario. HP looks out into the market and sees the two slowest gazelles in this space are business focussed (RIM and Windows Mobile). This just happens to be a core market for HP. So, they get to work integrating their new division and figuring out how to eat up their easiest targets. Maybe they do some market research to identify the top ten things a business consumer needs a smartphone to do out of the box. My guess at a few: PIM (a historical Palm strength and something nobody else does exceptionally well), relatedly Outlook synchronization, email, office suite document managment and so on and so forth. Then, after having a list of features their initial customers most demand, HP sets a segment of their army of software engineers to making those features exceptional on webOS. Next, they send out their army of business salespeople to companies they already sell computers, printers and calculators to and pitch the notion of letting HP handle their cellular service too (one less check to write!); can work with any of the big 3, (depending on the deal HP strikes with the carriers) maybe they even offer the phones for free. Doesn't seem all that far fetched to me.
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