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  1.    #1  
    Hi all,

    I am not saying I agree with this article, I am posting it because it is interesting!

    Take care,

    Jay

    Why the Verizon iPhone is already too late
    Apple should have gone to Verizon in 2009 — before Android took off



    Android phones — primarily made by HTC, Motorola and Samsung — are now outselling the iPhone, and will continue to grab market share. Here is the Google Nexus One, made by HTC, next to Apple's iPhone 4.

    By Wilson Rothman
    msnbc.com
    updated 8/10/2010 9:05:49 AM ET

    Why the Verizon iPhone is already too late - Tech & Science - TODAYshow.com

    Verizon Wireless might get an iPhone this January? It's about time. Or is it too late? New reports show that Google's Android is eating the iPhone's lunch. And by clinging to AT&T exclusivity and staying clear of Verizon, Apple is effectively serving up that lunch on a shiny silver platter.
    For a decade, Apple played Ice Man in a calculated dogfight of product design and marketing. It rarely made a misstep, and its successes were legendary as a result. This year, Apple has not shown itself to be so level-headed.

    You could cite Antennagate or the missing white iPhone as evidence Apple is losing its cool, but these are mishaps, destined to follow previous iPhonapocalypses and Applegeddons into the void of the forgotten past. No, the biggest reason is that it miscalculated how much a prolonged exclusivity with AT&T would cost. The deal has been lucrative — God knows AT&T pays well for the privilege — but the downside has been that Apple has let a reasonable iPhone copy become the No. 1 selling smart phone platform in America.

    It let this happen, by simultaneously creating a burning desire for an app-driven touch-screen smart phone, and then denying it to two-thirds of the American populace. That might be an old rant, but the detrimental result of this decision — or rather, the detrimental result of sustaining the decision for so long — are only now becoming apparent.

    Droid fever
    Look at Android's momentum. Just last week, NPD said that Android phones accounted for a third of all smart phones purchased in the U.S. , with RIM's BlackBerry at 28 percent and the iPhone at 22 percent. Apple launched iPhone a year earlier than Android, with more immediate critical and consumer success. In fact, the first Android phone, the T-Mobile G1, wasn't even taken seriously as an iPhone competitor. It wasn't until more than two years after the iPhone's AT&T exclusive deal had begun, that it was time to stop waiting for a call from Cupertino, and instead release an iPhone competitor that could fight — and win.

    Along comes Motorola's original Droid, launched in the fall of 2009 by Verizon Wireless as the anti-iPhone.

    Let's not forget that Verizon has advertising dollars to burn — they would have gladly burned them on an iPhone, but that was not to be. The campaign slogan was "iDon't, Droid Does." But just like the Biblical anti-Christ, the anti-Jesus-phone bears a striking resemblance to its nemesis. People bought the Droid not because of its hardware keyboard or its LED camera flash; they bought it because they could get apps and do GPS navigation and check e-mail and Twitter and all that iPhone stuff ... but on Verizon.

    Verizon has spent years strictly controlling a fairly nondescript line of phones, and charging generally the highest prices in the business. The result is consistently high customer satisfaction rating and the perception — one backed with some reasonable evidence — that it has the largest and most reliable digital network. (I know from testing that AT&T has the fastest, but its 3G footprint really is much smaller than Verizon's.) Now that Verizon's phones offer the same functionality as an iPhone, it's looking a lot prettier.
    If Apple had ended its exclusivity in 2009, after two years, it could have quashed the nascent Android menace with ease. But this spring, the two iPhone models weren't able to outsell the combined Android army, including Motorola Droid and HTC Incredible on Verizon, and HTC Evo on Sprint.

    iPhone, your phone
    It's at this point that Apple devotees note, perhaps huffily, that iPhone sales were obviously stalled in the three months leading up to the launch of the iPhone 4. It was, thanks to an unplanned early look, the most eagerly anticipated handset since the very first iPhone. They will also note that despite Antennagate, sales reached record numbers, that Apple is rumored to be ordering extras made to meet demand, and that even this columnist downplayed much of the controversy surrounding the iPhone 4's design flaw (at the risk of being labeled "******").

    The third quarter might prove to be wondrous for iPhone sales, but Android phones are selling out too, and besides, there has been a chilling effect. It's best measured by a survey from the research firm ChangeWave. The percent of "very satisfied" iPhone customers has fallen, from the 3GS's 82 percent to the iPhone 4's 72 percent. Twenty percent said the antenna on the iPhone 4 has caused them grief, but still, the biggest ding was the exclusive carrier deal. Twenty seven percent don't want to be forced to use AT&T, the bulk of those complainers citing coverage and quality of network.

    Ultimately, this will have a serious impact on iPhone sales. The market research firm iSuppli just put out the most damning numbers: In terms of global smart phone market share, iPhones will peak at 15.9 percent in 2012, then fall to 15.3 percent two years later. Android will snatch 19.4 percent in two years, and keep on growing, hitting 22.8 percent in 2014. The firm's stated reason for the limited Apple growth? "While Apple’s family of iPhone products continues to be the standard by which all other smart phones are measured, the proprietary nature of the iOS and Apple’s closed system business model will limit the number of smart phones with the operating system." Meanwhile, "the flexibility Android offers for hardware designs and its appealing business model" is already luring in loads of eager hardware makers.

    Deja vu
    Sound familiar? Or maybe exactly like Windows vs. Mac, the decades-long personal computer battle? You know, the one that had one clear winner and one clear loser, at least in terms of market share? I'm hardly the first person to identify Android as the new Windows, and maybe that's something we can talk about in depth at another time. What's surprising to me is that Steve Jobs didn't see this coming, didn't see how too much control over the hardware supply might once again prevent him from grabbing the brass ring. A little control can be a good thing, but a chokehold, well, that's strangulation, brutha.

    I'm not asking for authorized iPhone clones. God knows, nobody wants to relive the StarMax years. But I am saying that when one phone platform is available on all four carriers in a variety of shapes, sizes, software configurations and monthly plans, and the other — fashionable, sure, but no longer a league above — is tied to just the one carrier with the one pricing structure, good people who exercise sound judgment will be forced to pick the former, despite the latter's halo of awesomeness.

    And when the halo of awesomeness starts shimmering less brightly, well, even people more susceptible to peer pressure and marketing will start looking elsewhere.

    Catch up with Wilson on Twitter at @wjrothman.

    © 2010 msnbc.com Reprints
    Please Support Research into Fibromyalgia, Chronic Pain and Spinal Injuries. If You Suffer from These, Consider Joining or Better Yet Forming a Support Group. No One Should Suffer from the Burden of Chronic Pain, Jay M. S. Founder, Leesburg Fibromyalgia/Resources Group
  2. #2  
    It's still a good article Jay. The final answer won't be known until the iPhone actually shows up at Verizon and the number for Android-switchers and AT&T-defectors become known. Still, it's clear by the current Android explosion at Verizon that Apple has missed out on a significant number of sales for now.
  3. #3  
    As I said back in July, Jobs now needs Verizon more than Verizon needs Jobs


    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    ...a game of chicken is likely going on behind the scenes with Verizon, Sprint, T-Mobile, AT&T, and Apple.

    One of the many brilliant aspects of Jobs, is the way he understood the dynamics that he could leverage to get the amazingly favorable arrangement he extracted originally from AT&T.

    Its extraordinary that Apple came to AT&T with no track record in phones, and no particular strength in anything but iPods -- yet got a deal that no other carrier has ever given.

    AT&T which had just bought Cinqular, desperately needed a killer device -- Jobs knew just how to pitch and manipulate AT&T. His insight, timing, and arrogance were incredible.

    Verizon was not then and is not now, willing to prostrate itself to Jobs.

    I know Verizon would like to get the iPhone -- but it wants it on its terms -- terms that gives it (some) control and profit. Verizon's attacks on the iPhone, its French kissing of Android, are all a part of negotiating with Jobs. The classic: "walking away from the bazaar" gambit.

    Verizon understands that the negotiating leverage is now with them -- that Jobs is now the desperate party, that he feverishly wants his phone to get on Verizon's network and its millions of customers -- if only to blunt the rise of Android.

    Apple can pretend to flirt with Sprint, with T-Mobile -- but they haven't the size that Apple covets. They don't have Verizon 's network. Apple wants Verizon now more than Verizon needs Apple.

    I would not want to be Apple's negotiating intermediary with Verizon right now.
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  4. #4  
    For Apple to grow, now, they need Verizon.

    But no one really knows the terms they were dealing with or even Verizon's capabilities at the time.

    If Apple's deal with ATT is sweet enough that they can pull those kinds of profits down without messing with multiple carriers -- and all the increased hassle and expense that comes with that - it may very well NOT have been in their financial interest to make it available.

    Has Android now gotten a toe hold? Absolutely, but as a poster notes above, the brand is fractured. There is no "android experience" that the average consumer can sink their teeth into and understand. And that's an important component of reaching critical mass, the way Apple did at ATT.
  5. #5  
    I don't see Apple topping iphone 4 launch sales without V. Ironically, that antenna detuning issue will be the number one reason to upgrade to iphone 5. It's not like the iphone 5's screen could be improved much. Storage is fine at 32gb. RAM's already been doubled. Camera has flash, is decent and has HD recording. The only real reason to upgrade would be faster processor which doesn't really excite the masses as we saw with 3GS.
  6. #6  
    Quote Originally Posted by BARYE View Post
    ...Jobs now needs Verizon more than Verizon needs Jobs
    There is a very good chance that Jobs doesn't make a deal with Verizon, that the iPhone instead goes to Sprint and T-Mobile.

    If Verizon -- sensing that it has more leverage in their negotiations with Jobs, presses too hard -- its easy to see Jobs going with Sprint and T-Mobile who combined have the same number of subscribers as Verizon. They would be MUCH more accommodating to whatever whim, demand, or revenue split that Jobs might make.


    Verizon iPhone Deal Still Not Sealed

    by John Paczkowski
    August 23, 2010

    Apple will likely bring the iPhone to another U.S. carrier in the next year–but that carrier may not be Verizon (VZ). While the company is said to be a front-runner for the device, Kaufman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu says it hasn’t yet finalized the deal that will add it to its handset lineup.

    “From our understanding, the Verizon negotiations are not finalized with important details still being ironed out, including technology and economics,” Wu said in a note to clients this morning. “We think it is premature to rule out T-Mobile or Sprint (S).”

    Or both of them, together. As Wu notes, adding T-Mobile and Sprint as additional carriers would almost be like adding Verizon. Together, Sprint and T-Mobile have about 82 million subscribers. Verizon has 93 million subscribers.

    Of course, bringing Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone to Verizon would serve another purpose as well–striking a blow against Google’s (GOOG) Android, which has claimed the carrier as its home turf. “We believe the argument for Apple to pursue Verizon sooner than later is to address the growing presence of Android,” says Wu. “What better way to do that than where Android has seen the majority of its success?”

    In any event, Wu seems certain that AT&T (T) will not be the only iPhone carrier in the States next year. “From our checks with industry and supply chain sources and a recent SEC 10-Q filing by AT&T mentioning that exclusivity with ‘a number of attractive handsets’ could end, we have conviction that the iPhone could likely finally be at another carrier besides AT&T here in the U.S. in 2011 and potentially at Verizon in 2011 or 2012.”

    http://digitaldaily.allthingsd.com/20100823/46972/
    755P Sprint SERO (upgraded from unlocked GSM 650 on T-Mobile)
  7.    #7  
    Hi all.

    Thank you one and all.....I also agree Apple needs V more than V needs Apple. After all, V has added tons of customers the entire time AT&T has been the sole carrier for the Iphone here in the USA. If AT&T has a major outage, Apple is screwed as well as Iphone owners.

    Here is some more info...it may not be a done deal with V, read below.

    Take care,

    jay

    Analyst Says Verizon iPhone Not a Sure Thing
    By ANTHONY HA of VentureBeat, August 23, 2010

    Analyst Says Verizon iPhone Not a Sure Thing - NYTimes.com

    Apple is holding talks to bring the iPhone onto Verizon’s mobile network, but the details are still being worked out, according to a note sent this morning by Kauffman Bros. analyst Shaw Wu (and summarized in All Things Digital).

    The timetable for ending Apple’s exclusive agreement with AT&T in the United States has been the subject of constant speculation. Apple has ended its exclusive deals in most other countries, so something similar seems inevitable in the US, but the timing and the partner aren’t clear. Verizon seemed like the most likely target, with sources telling Bloomberg that the carrier will finally get the iPhone in January 2011. Chief executive Steve Jobs has said that Apple has Verizon cell sites on campus, suggesting that the company is testing a Verizon iPhone.

    On the other hand, Jobs has been noncommittal whenever he’s asked about a move to Verizon, and Verizon’s John Johnston said in June that there are no plans to carry the iPhone in the “immediate future.”

    Apple’s pretty secretive, so if there is a Verizon iPhone in the works, it probably wouldn’t be announced until shortly before launch. But Wu’s report suggests another reason for the vague public statements: There’s no done deal. The companies are still trying to reach an agreement on “important details” that include “technology and economics,” Wu said. So it would be “premature to rule out T-Mobile or Sprint.”

    Regardless of who Apple settles on, iPhone owners will have options beyond AT&T next year, Wu said.

    “From our checks with industry and supply chain sources and a recent SEC 10-Q filing by AT&T mentioning that exclusivity with ‘a number of attractive handsets’ could end, we have conviction that the iPhone could likely finally be at another carrier besides AT&T here in the U.S. in 2011 and potentially at Verizon in 2011 or 2012,” he said.

    Tags: iPhone

    Companies: Apple, Kauffman Bros., sprint, T Mobile, Verizon

    People: Shaw Wu, Steve Jobs


    Copyright 2010 VentureBeat. All Rights Reserved.


    VentureBeat is an independent technology blog.
    Please Support Research into Fibromyalgia, Chronic Pain and Spinal Injuries. If You Suffer from These, Consider Joining or Better Yet Forming a Support Group. No One Should Suffer from the Burden of Chronic Pain, Jay M. S. Founder, Leesburg Fibromyalgia/Resources Group
  8. #8  
    My guess is that the iPhone will appear on Verizon and the two companies are downplaying the launch to avoid affecting current sales.

    As for Android, the free availability of the OS to phone manufactures does make it likely that sales may eclipse the iOS but Apple sells a lot of iPod touches and iPads so maybe not. Android does have some rough edges (such as two email clients) and HTC doesn't have quite the brand cachet that Apple does. Whatever happens, Apple will probably continue to make plenty of money while Steve Jobs is still around.

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